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Loans | 3 Months Ended
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Jan. 31, 2025
Text Block [Abstract] |
Loans | Note 6. Loans Allowance for credit losses The following table provides a reconciliation of the opening balance to the closing balance of the ECL allowance:
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended |  | 2025 Jan. 31 |
|  | Stage 1 |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  | Stage 3 |  |  |  |
|  | Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |  |  | Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |  |  | Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | Total |
Residential mortgages |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 89 |  |  | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 234 |  |  | $ | 449 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | (5 | ) |  |  | (15 | ) |  |  | (16 | )
Changes in model |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (38 | ) |  |  | 36 |  |  |  | 41 |  |  |  | 39 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 36 |  |  |  | (35 | ) |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | 7 |  |  |  | (5 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 22 |  |  |  | 23 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (2 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 3 |  |  |  | 3 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | (8 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | 7 |
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 91 |  |  | $ | 128 |  |  | $ | 253 |  |  | $ | 472 |
Personal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 247 |  |  | $ | 546 |  |  | $ | 190 |  |  | $ | 983 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 7 |  |  |  | (5 | ) |  |  | (7 | ) |  |  | (5 | )
Changes in model |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | 76 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 56 |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (119 | ) |  |  | 187 |  |  |  | 112 |  |  |  | 180 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 128 |  |  |  | (126 | ) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (15 | ) |  |  | 23 |  |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | (19 | ) |  |  | 20 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | 136 |  |  |  | 115 |  |  |  | 231 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (138 | ) |  |  | (138 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 17 |  |  |  | 17 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (2 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | 5 |  |  |  | 4 |
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 228 |  |  | $ | 680 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 1,095 |
Credit card |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 295 |  |  | $ | 660 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 955 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 10 |  |  |  | (5 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 5 |
Changes in model |  |  | (26 | ) |  |  | 32 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 6 |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (213 | ) |  |  | 264 |  |  |  | 112 |  |  |  | 163 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 232 |  |  |  | (232 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (21 | ) |  |  | 21 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (57 | ) |  |  | 57 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | 23 |  |  |  | 169 |  |  |  | 174 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (204 | ) |  |  | (204 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 35 |  |  |  | 35 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 277 |  |  | $ | 683 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 960 |
Business and government |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 265 |  |  | $ | 1,061 |  |  | $ | 401 |  |  | $ | 1,727 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 14 |  |  |  | (22 | ) |  |  | (21 | ) |  |  | (29 | )
Changes in model |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | 79 |  |  |  | 103 |  |  |  | 174 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 47 |  |  |  | (45 | ) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (7 | ) |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (62 | ) |  |  | 62 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | 46 |  |  |  | (41 | ) |  |  | 140 |  |  |  | 145 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (77 | ) |  |  | (77 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 14 |  |  |  | 14 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (23 | ) |  |  | (23 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | 37 |  |  |  | 17 |  |  |  | 63 |
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 320 |  |  | $ | 1,057 |  |  | $ | 472 |  |  | $ | 1,849 |
Total ECL allowance (4) |  | $ | 916 |  |  | $ | 2,548 |  |  | $ | 912 |  |  | $ | 4,376 |
Comprises: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Loans |  | $ | 805 |  |  | $ | 2,396 |  |  | $ | 903 |  |  | $ | 4,104 |
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures (5) |  |  | 111 |  |  |  | 152 |  |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | 272 |
(1) | Excludes the disposal and write-off of impaired loans.
(2) | Transfers represent stage movements of ECL allowances before net remeasurement. Net remeasurement represents the current period change in ECL allowances for transfers, net write-offs, changes in forecasts of forward-looking information, parameter updates, and partial repayments in the period.
(3) | Provision for (reversal of) credit losses for loans and undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures is presented as Provision for (reversal of) credit losses on our interim consolidated statement of income.
(4) | See Note 5 to the interim consolidated financial statements for the ECL allowance on debt securities measured at FVOCI and amortized cost. The ECL allowances for other financial assets classified at amortized cost were immaterial as at January 31, 2025, October 31, 2024 and January 31, 2024 and were excluded from the table above. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances.
(5) | Included in Other liabilities on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended |  | 2024 Oct. 31 |  |  | 2024 Jan. 31 |
|  | Stage 1 |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  | Stage 3 |  |  |  |  |  | Stage 1 |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  | Stage 3 |  |  |  |
|  | Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |  |  | Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |  |  | Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | Total |  |  | Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |  |  | Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |  |  | Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | Total |
Residential mortgages |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 91 |  |  | $ | 153 |  |  | $ | 258 |  |  | $ | 502 |  |  | $ | 90 |  |  | $ | 142 |  |  | $ | 224 |  |  | $ | 456 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | (24 | ) |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (9 | ) |  |  | (7 | )
Changes in model |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (36 | ) |  |  | 6 |  |  |  | 12 |  |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | 38 |  |  |  | 43 |  |  |  | 61 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 33 |  |  |  | (32 | ) |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 17 |  |  |  | (16 | ) |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | (6 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | 3 |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (27 | ) |  |  | (13 | ) |  |  | (42 | ) |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | 22 |  |  |  | 33 |  |  |  | 54 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | (3 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | 4 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (9 | ) |  |  | (9 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (6 | ) |  |  | (6 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (2 | )
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 89 |  |  | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 234 |  |  | $ | 449 |  |  | $ | 88 |  |  | $ | 165 |  |  | $ | 250 |  |  | $ | 503 |
Personal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 179 |  |  | $ | 712 |  |  | $ | 193 |  |  | $ | 1,084 |  |  | $ | 174 |  |  | $ | 709 |  |  | $ | 181 |  |  | $ | 1,064 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | (15 | ) |  |  | (12 | ) |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | 8 |  |  |  | (14 | ) |  |  | (11 | ) |  |  | (17 | )
Changes in model |  |  | 54 |  |  |  | (127 | ) |  |  | (6 | ) |  |  | (79 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (146 | ) |  |  | 144 |  |  |  | 127 |  |  |  | 125 |  |  |  | (128 | ) |  |  | 183 |  |  |  | 108 |  |  |  | 163 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 164 |  |  |  | (162 | ) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 140 |  |  |  | (140 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (11 | ) |  |  | 18 |  |  |  | (7 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | 19 |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (24 | ) |  |  | 24 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (23 | ) |  |  | 23 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | 70 |  |  |  | (166 | ) |  |  | 124 |  |  |  | 28 |  |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | 25 |  |  |  | 119 |  |  |  | 146 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (141 | ) |  |  | (141 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (126 | ) |  |  | (126 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 15 |  |  |  | 15 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 17 |  |  |  | 17 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | (1 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | (1 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | (2 | )
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 247 |  |  | $ | 546 |  |  | $ | 190 |  |  | $ | 983 |  |  | $ | 176 |  |  | $ | 735 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 1,098 |
Credit card |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 193 |  |  | $ | 648 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 841 |  |  | $ | 181 |  |  | $ | 591 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 772 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 5 |  |  |  | (4 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 6 |  |  |  | (19 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | (13 | )
Changes in model |  |  | 86 |  |  |  | (34 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 52 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (153 | ) |  |  | 273 |  |  |  | 110 |  |  |  | 230 |  |  |  | (94 | ) |  |  | 165 |  |  |  | 77 |  |  |  | 148 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 183 |  |  |  | (183 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 119 |  |  |  | (119 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (19 | ) |  |  | 19 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | 18 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (59 | ) |  |  | 59 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (56 | ) |  |  | 56 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | 102 |  |  |  | 12 |  |  |  | 169 |  |  |  | 283 |  |  |  | 13 |  |  |  | (11 | ) |  |  | 133 |  |  |  | 135 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (204) |  |  |  | (204 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (160 | ) |  |  | (160 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 35 |  |  |  | 35 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 27 |  |  |  | 27 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 295 |  |  | $ | 660 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 955 |  |  | $ | 194 |  |  | $ | 580 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 774 |
Business and government |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Balance at beginning of period |  | $ | 311 |  |  | $ | 991 |  |  | $ | 389 |  |  | $ | 1,691 |  |  | $ | 294 |  |  | $ | 864 |  |  | $ | 667 |  |  | $ | 1,825 |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions (1) |  |  | 8 |  |  |  | (28 | ) |  |  | (18 | ) |  |  | (38 | ) |  |  | 3 |  |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | (11 | ) |  |  | (28 | )
Changes in model |  |  | (40 | ) |  |  | 17 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (23 | ) |  |  | 12 |  |  |  | 29 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 41 |
Net remeasurement (2) |  |  | (87 | ) |  |  | 165 |  |  |  | 133 |  |  |  | 211 |  |  |  | (85 | ) |  |  | 211 |  |  |  | 111 |  |  |  | 237 |
Transfers (2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– to 12-month ECL |  |  | 76 |  |  |  | (72 | ) |  |  | (4 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | 51 |  |  |  | (49 | ) |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL performing |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | 11 |  |  |  | (3 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | (9 | ) |  |  | 11 |  |  |  | (2 | ) |  |  | – |
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |  |  | – |  |  |  | (29 | ) |  |  | 29 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (111 | ) |  |  | 111 |  |  |  | – |
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses (3) |  |  | (51 | ) |  |  | 64 |  |  |  | 137 |  |  |  | 150 |  |  |  | (28 | ) |  |  | 71 |  |  |  | 207 |  |  |  | 250 |
Write-offs |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (125 | ) |  |  | (125 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (222 | ) |  |  | (222 | )
Recoveries |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 10 |  |  |  | 10 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 18 |  |  |  | 18 |
Interest income on impaired loans |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | (20 | ) |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | (23 | ) |  |  | (23 | )
Foreign exchange and other |  |  | 5 |  |  |  | 6 |  |  |  | 10 |  |  |  | 21 |  |  |  | (8 | ) |  |  | (23 | ) |  |  | (10 | ) |  |  | (41 | )
Balance at end of period |  | $ | 265 |  |  | $ | 1,061 |  |  | $ | 401 |  |  | $ | 1,727 |  |  | $ | 258 |  |  | $ | 912 |  |  | $ | 637 |  |  | $ | 1,807 |
Total ECL allowance (4) |  | $ | 896 |  |  | $ | 2,393 |  |  | $ | 825 |  |  | $ | 4,114 |  |  | $ | 716 |  |  | $ | 2,392 |  |  | $ | 1,074 |  |  | $ | 4,182 |
Comprises: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Loans |  | $ | 800 |  |  | $ | 2,301 |  |  | $ | 816 |  |  | $ | 3,917 |  |  | $ | 631 |  |  | $ | 2,316 |  |  | $ | 1,073 |  |  | $ | 4,020 |
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures (5) |  |  | 96 |  |  |  | 92 |  |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | 197 |  |  |  | 85 |  |  |  | 76 |  |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 162 |
See previous page for footnote references. Inputs, assumptions and model techniques We continue to operate in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. There is inherent uncertainty in forecasting forward-looking information and estimating the impact that the macroeconomic environment, including the level and duration of potential tariffs that could be imposed by the U.S. government, fiscal and monetary policies that may be enacted in response to tariffs, the expectation for lower interest rates even in the absence of a trade war, the easing of inflationary pressures, and geopolitical events will have on the level of ECL allowance and period-over-period volatility of the provision for credit losses. As a result, a heightened level of judgment in estimating ECLs in respect of all these elements, as discussed below, continued to be required. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements in our 2024 Annual Report and Note 2 to our interim consolidated financial statements for additional information concerning the significant estimates and credit judgment inherent in the estimation of ECL allowances. The following tables provide the base case, upside case and downside case scenario forecasts for select forward-looking information variables used to estimate our ECL.
|  | Base case |  |  | Upside case |  |  | Downside case |
As at January 31, 2025 |  |  | Average value over the next 12 months |  |  |  | Average value over the remaining forecast period | (1) |  |  | Average value over the next 12 months |  |  |  | Average value over the remaining forecast period | (1) |  |  | Average value over the next 12 months |  |  |  | Average value over the remaining forecast period | (1)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) year-over-year growth |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Canada (2) |  |  | 1.8 | % |  |  | 2.1 | % |  |  | 2.4 | % |  |  | 2.6 | % |  |  | 0.4 | % |  |  | 1.3 | %
United States |  |  | 2.2 | % |  |  | 2.0 | % |  |  | 2.9 | % |  |  | 2.8 | % |  |  | 0.5 | % |  |  | 1.0 | %
Unemployment rate |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Canada (2) |  |  | 6.6 | % |  |  | 5.9 | % |  |  | 6.2 | % |  |  | 5.4 | % |  |  | 7.4 | % |  |  | 6.8 | %
United States |  |  | 4.3 | % |  |  | 4.0 | % |  |  | 3.6 | % |  |  | 3.4 | % |  |  | 4.9 | % |  |  | 4.6 | %
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth (2) |  |  | 3.9 | % |  |  | 3.0 | % |  |  | 6.4 | % |  |  | 5.2 | % |  |  | 0.3 | % |  |  | 0.3 | %
Canadian household debt service ratio |  |  | 14.7 | % |  |  | 14.8 | % |  |  | 14.5 | % |  |  | 14.6 | % |  |  | 15.3 | % |  |  | 15.2 | %
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$) |  | $ | 74 |  |  | $ | 74 |  |  | $ | 89 |  |  | $ | 96 |  |  | $ | 56 |  |  | $ | 63 |
As at October 31, 2024 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Real GDP year-over-year growth |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Canada (2) |  |  | 1.6 | % |  |  | 2.3 | % |  |  | 2.5 | % |  |  | 2.7 | % |  |  | 0.4 | % |  |  | 1.4 | %
United States |  |  | 2.0 | % |  |  | 2.0 | % |  |  | 3.0 | % |  |  | 2.9 | % |  |  | 0.7 | % |  |  | 0.9 | %
Unemployment rate |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Canada (2) |  |  | 6.6 | % |  |  | 5.9 | % |  |  | 5.7 | % |  |  | 5.2 | % |  |  | 7.2 | % |  |  | 6.8 | %
United States |  |  | 4.5 | % |  |  | 4.0 | % |  |  | 3.7 | % |  |  | 3.3 | % |  |  | 5.1 | % |  |  | 4.7 | %
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth (2) |  |  | 2.6 | % |  |  | 2.5 | % |  |  | 7.1 | % |  |  | 4.0 | % |  |  | (2.3 | )% |  |  | 0.9 | %
Canadian household debt service ratio |  |  | 14.8 | % |  |  | 14.8 | % |  |  | 14.4 | % |  |  | 14.7 | % |  |  | 15.3 | % |  |  | 15.2 | %
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$) |  | $ | 78 |  |  | $ | 74 |  |  | $ | 88 |  |  | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 60 |  |  | $ | 61 |
(1) | The remaining forecast period is generally four years.
(2) | National-level forward-looking forecasts are presented in the table above, which represent the aggregation of the provincial-level forecasts used to estimate our ECL. Housing Price Index growth rates are also forecasted at the municipal level in some cases. As a result, the forecasts for individual provinces or municipalities reflected in our ECL will differ from the national forecasts presented above.
As required, the forward-looking information used to estimate ECLs reflects our expectations and uncertainties as at January 31, 2025, and October 31, 2024, respectively, and does not reflect changes in expectations that may have subsequently arisen. The base case, upside case and downside case amounts shown represent the average value of the forecasts over the respective projection horizons. Our underlying base case projection as at January 31, 2025 continues to be characterized by modest real GDP growth in Canada, and slightly stronger growth in the U.S. which has generally been more resilient to higher interest rates. Our base case projection for Canada as at January 31, 2025 assumes that any tariffs will be short term and have limited impact on growth and unemployment. Our base case also assumes that interest rates will continue to decline until the middle of calendar 2025, but remain at higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our downside case forecast assumes slower growth in Canada due to increasing economic uncertainty. Our downside case forecast as at January 31, 2025 is generally consistent with a more pronounced and longer lasting trade dispute between Canada and the United States, including higher unemployment rates in Canada and lower consumer spending. The downside case forecast for the U.S. assumes slow growth for the remainder of calendar 2025. The downside forecasts also reflect slower recoveries thereafter to lower levels of sustained economic activity and unemployment rates persistently above where they stood pre-pandemic. The upside scenario continues to reflect a better economic environment than the base case forecast. As indicated above, forecasting forward-looking information for multiple scenarios and determining the probability weighting of the scenarios involves a high degree of management judgment. To address the significant uncertainties inherent in the current environment, we continue to utilize management overlays with respect to the impact of certain forward-looking information and credit metrics that are not expected to be as indicative of the credit condition of the portfolios as the historical experience in our models would have otherwise suggested. The use of management overlays requires the application of significant judgment that impacts the amount of ECL allowances recognized. If we were to only use our base case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $465 million lower than the recognized ECL as at January 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $246 million). If we were to only use our downside case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $951 million higher than the recognized ECL as at January 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $737 million). This sensitivity is isolated to the measurement of ECL and therefore did not consider changes in the migration of exposures between stage 1 and stage 2 from the determination of the significant increase in credit risk that would have resulted in a 100% base case scenario or a 100% downside case scenario. As a result, our ECL allowance on performing loans could exceed the amount implied by the 100% downside case scenario from the migration of additional exposures from stage 1 to stage 2. Actual credit losses could differ materially from those reflected in our estimates. The following tables provide the gross carrying amount of loans, and the contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures based on our risk management probability of default (PD) bands for retail exposures, and based on our internal risk ratings for business and government exposures. Refer to the “Credit risk” section of our 2024 Annual Report for details on the CIBC risk categories. Loans (1)
$ millions, as at |  |  |  |  | 2025 Jan. 31 |  |  |  |  |  | 2024 Oct. 31 |
|  |  | Stage 1 |  |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  |  | Stage 3 | (2) |  |  | Total |  |  |  | Stage 1 |  |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  |  | Stage 3 | (2) |  |  | Total |
Residential mortgages |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Exceptionally low |  | $ | 165,700 |  |  | $ | 2,082 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 167,782 |  |  | $ | 160,515 |  |  | $ | 6,130 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 166,645 |
– Very low |  |  | 85,019 |  |  |  | 2,806 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 87,825 |  |  |  | 81,198 |  |  |  | 5,926 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 87,124 |
– Low |  |  | 10,894 |  |  |  | 2,746 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 13,640 |  |  |  | 10,329 |  |  |  | 3,638 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 13,967 |
– Medium |  |  | 1,147 |  |  |  | 6,536 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 7,683 |  |  |  | 851 |  |  |  | 6,534 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 7,385 |
– High |  |  | 6 |  |  |  | 1,519 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,525 |  |  |  | 7 |  |  |  | 1,561 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,568 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 888 |  |  |  | 888 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 790 |  |  |  | 790 |
– Not rated |  |  | 2,877 |  |  |  | 223 |  |  |  | 232 |  |  |  | 3,332 |  |  |  | 2,757 |  |  |  | 232 |  |  |  | 204 |  |  |  | 3,193 |
Gross residential mortgages (3)(4) |  |  | 265,643 |  |  |  | 15,912 |  |  |  | 1,120 |  |  |  | 282,675 |  |  |  | 255,657 |  |  |  | 24,021 |  |  |  | 994 |  |  |  | 280,672 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 91 |  |  |  | 128 |  |  |  | 253 |  |  |  | 472 |  |  |  | 89 |  |  |  | 126 |  |  |  | 234 |  |  |  | 449 |
Net residential mortgages |  |  | 265,552 |  |  |  | 15,784 |  |  |  | 867 |  |  |  | 282,203 |  |  |  | 255,568 |  |  |  | 23,895 |  |  |  | 760 |  |  |  | 280,223 |
Personal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Exceptionally low |  |  | 16,348 |  |  |  | 188 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 16,536 |  |  |  | 16,689 |  |  |  | 83 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 16,772 |
– Very low |  |  | 9,794 |  |  |  | 181 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 9,975 |  |  |  | 9,685 |  |  |  | 12 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 9,697 |
– Low |  |  | 9,924 |  |  |  | 1,824 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 11,748 |  |  |  | 10,498 |  |  |  | 1,374 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 11,872 |
– Medium |  |  | 3,357 |  |  |  | 2,167 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 5,524 |  |  |  | 3,848 |  |  |  | 1,822 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 5,670 |
– High |  |  | 426 |  |  |  | 1,157 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,583 |  |  |  | 465 |  |  |  | 1,102 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,567 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 265 |  |  |  | 265 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 260 |  |  |  | 260 |
– Not rated |  |  | 786 |  |  |  | 29 |  |  |  | 36 |  |  |  | 851 |  |  |  | 782 |  |  |  | 29 |  |  |  | 32 |  |  |  | 843 |
Gross personal (4) |  |  | 40,635 |  |  |  | 5,546 |  |  |  | 301 |  |  |  | 46,482 |  |  |  | 41,967 |  |  |  | 4,422 |  |  |  | 292 |  |  |  | 46,681 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 204 |  |  |  | 628 |  |  |  | 187 |  |  |  | 1,019 |  |  |  | 221 |  |  |  | 531 |  |  |  | 190 |  |  |  | 942 |
Net personal |  |  | 40,431 |  |  |  | 4,918 |  |  |  | 114 |  |  |  | 45,463 |  |  |  | 41,746 |  |  |  | 3,891 |  |  |  | 102 |  |  |  | 45,739 |
Credit card |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Exceptionally low |  |  | 6,428 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 6,428 |  |  |  | 7,185 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 7,185 |
– Very low |  |  | 477 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 477 |  |  |  | 502 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 502 |
– Low |  |  | 6,945 |  |  |  | 86 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 7,031 |  |  |  | 6,800 |  |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 6,804 |
– Medium |  |  | 3,383 |  |  |  | 2,121 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 5,504 |  |  |  | 3,853 |  |  |  | 1,512 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 5,365 |
– High |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | 558 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 560 |  |  |  | 2 |  |  |  | 522 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 524 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |
– Not rated |  |  | 174 |  |  |  | 8 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 182 |  |  |  | 165 |  |  |  | 6 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 171 |
Gross credit card |  |  | 17,409 |  |  |  | 2,773 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 20,182 |  |  |  | 18,507 |  |  |  | 2,044 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 20,551 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 246 |  |  |  | 615 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 861 |  |  |  | 279 |  |  |  | 623 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 902 |
Net credit card |  |  | 17,163 |  |  |  | 2,158 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 19,321 |  |  |  | 18,228 |  |  |  | 1,421 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 19,649 |
Business and government |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Investment grade |  |  | 107,092 |  |  |  | 561 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 107,653 |  |  |  | 101,809 |  |  |  | 722 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 102,531 |
– Non-investment grade |  |  | 100,410 |  |  |  | 8,575 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 108,985 |  |  |  | 97,131 |  |  |  | 9,000 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 106,131 |
– Watchlist |  |  | 26 |  |  |  | 3,987 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 4,013 |  |  |  | 25 |  |  |  | 3,745 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 3,770 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,841 |  |  |  | 1,841 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,628 |  |  |  | 1,628 |
– Not rated |  |  | 376 |  |  |  | 16 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 392 |  |  |  | 230 |  |  |  | 15 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 245 |
Gross business and government (3)(5) |  |  | 207,904 |  |  |  | 13,139 |  |  |  | 1,841 |  |  |  | 222,884 |  |  |  | 199,195 |  |  |  | 13,482 |  |  |  | 1,628 |  |  |  | 214,305 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 264 |  |  |  | 1,025 |  |  |  | 463 |  |  |  | 1,752 |  |  |  | 211 |  |  |  | 1,021 |  |  |  | 392 |  |  |  | 1,624 |
Net business and government |  |  | 207,640 |  |  |  | 12,114 |  |  |  | 1,378 |  |  |  | 221,132 |  |  |  | 198,984 |  |  |  | 12,461 |  |  |  | 1,236 |  |  |  | 212,681 |
Total net amount of loans |  | $ | 530,786 |  |  | $ | 34,974 |  |  | $ | 2,359 |  |  | $ | 568,119 |  |  | $ | 514,526 |  |  | $ | 41,668 |  |  | $ | 2,098 |  |  | $ | 558,292 |
(1) | The table excludes debt securities measured at FVOCI, for which ECL allowances of $20 million (October 31, 2024: $19 million) were recognized in AOCI. In addition, the table excludes debt securities classified at amortized cost, for which ECL allowances of $17 million were recognized as at January 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $17 million). Other financial assets classified at amortized cost were also excluded from the table above as their ECL allowances were immaterial as at January 31, 2025 and October 31, 2024. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances.
(2) | Excludes foreclosed assets of $2 million (October 31, 2024: $8 million) which were included in Other assets on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
(3) | Includes $1 million (October 31, 2024: $3 million) of residential mortgages and $713 million (October 31, 2024: $221 million) of business and government loans that are measured and designated at FVTPL.
(4) | The internal risk rating grades presented for residential mortgages and certain personal loans do not take into account loan guarantees or insurance issued by the Canadian government (federal or provincial), Canadian government agencies, or private insurers, as the determination of whether a significant increase in credit risk has occurred for these loans is based on relative changes in the loans’ lifetime PD without considering collateral or other credit enhancements.
(5) | Includes customers’ liability under acceptances of $10 million (October 31, 2024: $6 million).
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures
$ millions, as at |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2025 Jan. 31 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2024 Oct. 31 |
|  | Stage 1 |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  | Stage 3 |  |  | Total |  |  | Stage 1 |  |  | Stage 2 |  |  | Stage 3 |  |  | Total |
Retail |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Exceptionally low |  | $ | 165,728 |  |  | $ | 445 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 166,173 |  |  | $ | 164,577 |  |  | $ | 117 |  |  | $ | – |  |  | $ | 164,694 |
– Very low |  |  | 15,061 |  |  |  | 298 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 15,359 |  |  |  | 15,112 |  |  |  | 4 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 15,116 |
– Low |  |  | 15,495 |  |  |  | 1,365 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 16,860 |  |  |  | 14,988 |  |  |  | 984 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 15,972 |
– Medium |  |  | 2,100 |  |  |  | 1,647 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 3,747 |  |  |  | 2,263 |  |  |  | 1,280 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 3,543 |
– High |  |  | 319 |  |  |  | 551 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 870 |  |  |  | 325 |  |  |  | 539 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 864 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 45 |  |  |  | 45 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 43 |  |  |  | 43 |
– Not rated |  |  | 582 |  |  |  | 7 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 589 |  |  |  | 565 |  |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 574 |
Gross retail |  |  | 199,285 |  |  |  | 4,313 |  |  |  | 45 |  |  |  | 203,643 |  |  |  | 197,830 |  |  |  | 2,933 |  |  |  | 43 |  |  |  | 200,806 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 55 |  |  |  | 120 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 175 |  |  |  | 42 |  |  |  | 52 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 94 |
Net retail |  |  | 199,230 |  |  |  | 4,193 |  |  |  | 45 |  |  |  | 203,468 |  |  |  | 197,788 |  |  |  | 2,881 |  |  |  | 43 |  |  |  | 200,712 |
Business and government |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
– Investment grade |  |  | 164,733 |  |  |  | 591 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 165,324 |  |  |  | 156,560 |  |  |  | 571 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 157,131 |
– Non-investment grade |  |  | 70,837 |  |  |  | 3,022 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 73,859 |  |  |  | 66,788 |  |  |  | 3,018 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 69,806 |
– Watch list |  |  | 20 |  |  |  | 890 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 910 |  |  |  | 28 |  |  |  | 878 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 906 |
– Default |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 205 |  |  |  | 205 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 123 |  |  |  | 123 |
– Not rated |  |  | 1,005 |  |  |  | 42 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,047 |  |  |  | 1,117 |  |  |  | 91 |  |  |  | – |  |  |  | 1,208 |
Gross business and government |  |  | 236,595 |  |  |  | 4,545 |  |  |  | 205 |  |  |  | 241,345 |  |  |  | 224,493 |  |  |  | 4,558 |  |  |  | 123 |  |  |  | 229,174 |
ECL allowance |  |  | 56 |  |  |  | 32 |  |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | 97 |  |  |  | 54 |  |  |  | 40 |  |  |  | 9 |  |  |  | 103 |
Net business and government |  |  | 236,539 |  |  |  | 4,513 |  |  |  | 196 |  |  |  | 241,248 |  |  |  | 224,439 |  |  |  | 4,518 |  |  |  | 114 |  |  |  | 229,071 |
Total net undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures |  | $ | 435,769 |  |  | $ | 8,706 |  |  | $ | 241 |  |  | $ | 444,716 |  |  | $ | 422,227 |  |  | $ | 7,399 |  |  | $ | 157 |  |  | $ | 429,783 |

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