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Income Taxes | 6 Months Ended
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Jun. 30, 2023
Income Tax Disclosure [Abstract] |
Income Taxes | Income Taxes Overview AGL and its Bermuda subsidiaries AG Re, AGRO and Cedar Personnel Ltd. (collectively, the Bermuda Subsidiaries) are not subject to any income, withholding or capital gains taxes under current Bermuda law. The Company has received an assurance from the Minister of Finance in Bermuda that, in the event of any taxes being imposed, AGL and its Bermuda Subsidiaries will be exempt from taxation in Bermuda until March 31, 2035. AGL’s U.S., U.K. and French subsidiaries are subject to income taxes imposed by U.S., U.K. and French authorities, respectively, and file applicable tax returns. In addition, AGRO, a Bermuda domiciled company, has elected under Section 953(d) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code to be taxed as a U.S. domestic corporation. AGL is a tax resident in the U.K. although it remains a Bermuda-based company and its administrative and head office functions continue to be carried on in Bermuda. AGUS files a consolidated federal income tax return with all of its U.S. subsidiaries. Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries, AGRO and AG Intermediary Inc., file their own consolidated federal income tax return. Tax Assets (Liabilities) Deferred and Current Tax Assets (Liabilities)
| As of
| June 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022
| (in millions)
Net deferred tax assets (liabilities) | $ | 101 |  |  | $ | 114 |
Net current tax assets (liabilities) | 35 |  |  | 63 |
Valuation Allowance As of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, the Company had $5 million in foreign tax credits (FTCs) due to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for use against regular tax in future years. FTCs will expire in 2027. In analyzing the future realizability of FTCs, the Company notes limitations on future foreign source income due to overall foreign losses as negative evidence. After reviewing positive and negative evidence, the Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the remaining FTCs of $5 million will not be utilized, and therefore maintained the valuation allowance from December 31, 2022 with respect to this tax attribute. The Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the remaining deferred tax assets will be fully realized after weighing all positive and negative evidence available as required under GAAP. The positive evidence that was considered included the cumulative income the Company has earned over the last three years, and the significant unearned premium income to be included in taxable income. The positive evidence outweighs any negative evidence that exists. As such, the Company believes that no valuation allowance is necessary in connection with the remaining deferred tax assets. The Company will continue to analyze the need for a valuation allowance on a quarterly basis. Changes in market conditions during 2023 and 2022, including rising interest rates, resulted in the recording of deferred tax assets related to net unrealized tax capital losses. When assessing recoverability of these deferred tax assets, the Company considers the ability and intent to hold the underlying securities to recovery in value, if necessary, as well as other factors as noted above. As of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, based on all available evidence, including capital loss carryback capacity, the Company concluded that the deferred tax assets related to the unrealized tax capital losses on the available-for-sale securities portfolios are, more likely than not, expected to be realized. Provision for Income Taxes The Company’s provision for income taxes for interim financial periods is not based on an estimated annual effective rate due, for example, to the variability in loss reserves, fair value of its credit derivatives and VIEs, and foreign exchange gains and losses which prevents the Company from projecting a reliable estimated annual effective tax rate and pre-tax income for the full year 2023. A discrete calculation of the provision is calculated for each interim period. The effective tax rates reflect the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21% and the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%, and no taxes for the Company’s Bermuda Subsidiaries unless subject to U.S. tax by election. For the periods between April 1, 2017 and March 31, 2023, the U.K. corporation tax rate was 19%. For periods subsequent to April 1, 2023, the U.K. corporation tax rate has been increased to 25%. For the full year 2023, the U.K. subsidiaries will be taxed at the U.K. blended marginal corporate tax rate of 23.5%. The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions. A reconciliation of the difference between the provision for income taxes and the expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions is presented below. Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation
| Second Quarter |  | Six Months
| 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
| (in millions)
Expected tax provision (benefit) | $ | 23 |  |  | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | 43 |  |  | $ | 12 |
Tax-exempt interest | (3) |  |  | (4) |  |  | (6) |  |  | (7) |
NCI | — |  |  | (5) |  |  | (3) |  |  | (6) |
State taxes | 4 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 8 |
Foreign taxes | (4) |  |  | 9 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 10 |
Stock based compensation | (1) |  |  | 2 |  |  | — |  |  | 4 |
Other | (1) |  |  | (1) |  |  | (1) |  |  | — |
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes | $ | 18 |  |  | $ | 3 |  |  | $ | 41 |  |  | $ | 21 |
Effective tax rate | 12.6 | % |  | (12.9) | % |  | 15.6 | % |  | 30.3 | %
The expected tax provision (benefit) is calculated as the sum of pre-tax income in each jurisdiction multiplied by the statutory tax rate of the jurisdiction by which it will be taxed. Where there is a pre-tax loss in one jurisdiction and pre-tax income in another, the total combined expected tax rate may be higher or lower than any of the individual statutory rates. The following tables present pre-tax income and revenue by jurisdiction. Pre-tax Income (Loss) by Tax Jurisdiction
| Second Quarter |  | Six Months
| 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
| (in millions)
U.S. | $ | 117 |  |  | $ | 25 |  |  | $ | 225 |  |  | $ | 109 |
Bermuda | 33 |  |  | (10) |  |  | 58 |  |  | 17 |
U.K. | (4) |  |  | (31) |  |  | (15) |  |  | (45) |
Other | (2) |  |  | (6) |  |  | (4) |  |  | (10) |
Total | $ | 144 |  |  | $ | (22) |  |  | $ | 264 |  |  | $ | 71 |
Revenue by Tax Jurisdiction
| Second Quarter |  | Six Months
| 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
| (in millions)
U.S. | $ | 293 |  |  | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | 528 |  |  | $ | 375 |
Bermuda | 58 |  |  | 6 |  |  | 93 |  |  | 39 |
U.K. | 8 |  |  | (18) |  |  | 21 |  |  | (18) |
Other | 1 |  |  | (4) |  |  | 1 |  |  | (6) |
Total | $ | 360 |  |  | $ | 90 |  |  | $ | 643 |  |  | $ | 390 |
Pre-tax income by jurisdiction may be disproportionate to revenue by jurisdiction to the extent that insurance losses incurred are disproportionate. Audits As of June 30, 2023, AGUS had open tax years with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for 2018 forward and is currently under audit for the 2018 and 2019 tax years. As of June 30, 2023, Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. had open tax years with the IRS for 2019 forward and is not currently under audit with the IRS. In September 2022, His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs completed a business risk review of Assured Guaranty that commenced in July 2022 and assigned a low-risk rating for corporate taxes in the U.K. The Company’s French subsidiary is not currently under examination and has open tax years of 2019 forward.

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