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Outstanding Exposure | 6 Months Ended
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Jun. 30, 2023
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract] |
Outstanding Exposure | Outstanding Exposure The Company sells credit protection primarily in financial guaranty insurance form. The Company may also sell credit protection by issuing policies that guarantee payment obligations under credit default swaps (CDS). The Company’s contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for its financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views to be investment grade at inception, although on occasion it may underwrite new issuances that it views to be below-investment-grade (BIG), typically as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled exposures. The Company also seeks to acquire portfolios of insurance from financial guarantors that are no longer writing new business by acquiring such companies or providing reinsurance on a portfolio of insurance; in such instances, it evaluates the risk characteristics of the target portfolio, which may include some BIG exposures, as a whole in the context of the proposed transaction. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across sector and geography and, in the structured finance portfolio, generally requires subordination or collateral to protect it from loss. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions. Public finance obligations insured by the Company primarily consist of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, healthcare facilities and government office buildings. The Company also includes within public finance obligations similar obligations issued by U.S. and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities. Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on these VIEs whether or not they are consolidated. The Company also writes specialty business that is consistent with its risk profile and benefits from its underwriting experience and other types of financial guaranties. Surveillance Categories The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review of each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and generally reflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company’s internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as being the higher of AA or their current internal rating. Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company’s insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual exposures in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the exposure’s credit quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on exposures in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter, although the Company may also review a rating in response to developments impacting a credit when a ratings review is not scheduled. For assumed exposures, the Company may use the ceding company’s credit ratings of transactions where it is impractical for it to assign its own rating. Exposures identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. See Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to one of the three BIG surveillance categories described below based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company uses the pre-tax book yield of the relevant subsidiary’s investment portfolio to calculate the present value of projected payments and recoveries and determine whether a future loss is expected in order to assign the appropriate BIG surveillance category to a transaction. For financial statement measurement purposes, the Company uses risk-free rates, which are determined each quarter, to calculate the expected loss. More extensive monitoring and intervention are employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. For purposes of determining the appropriate surveillance category, the Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will in the future pay claims on that transaction that will not be fully reimbursed. The three BIG surveillance categories are: •BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. •BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims, which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. •BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Financial Guaranty Exposure The Company measures its financial guaranty exposure in terms of (i) gross and net par outstanding and (ii) gross and net debt service. The Company typically guarantees the payment of debt service when due. Since most of these payments are due in the future, the Company generally uses gross and net par outstanding as a proxy for its financial guaranty exposure. Gross par outstanding generally represents the principal amount of the insured obligation at a point in time. Net par outstanding equals gross par outstanding net of any reinsurance. The Company includes in its par outstanding calculation the impact of any consumer price index inflator to the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion to the reporting date. Foreign denominated par outstanding is translated at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period. The Company has, from time to time, purchased securities that it has insured, and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The Company excludes amounts attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities from par and debt service outstanding and instead reports Loss Mitigation Securities in the investment portfolio. The Company manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of both June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, the Company excluded net par outstanding of $1.3 billion, primarily attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities. Gross debt service outstanding represents the sum of all estimated future debt service payments on the insured obligations, on an undiscounted basis. Net debt service outstanding equals gross debt service outstanding net of any reinsurance. Future debt service payments include the impact of any consumer price index inflator after the reporting date, as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion after the reporting date. The Company calculates its debt service outstanding as follows: •for insured obligations that are not supported by homogeneous pools of assets (which category includes most of the Company’s public finance transactions), as the total estimated contractual future debt service due through maturity, regardless of whether the obligations may be called and regardless of whether, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, the Company believes the obligations will be repaid prior to contractual maturity; and •for insured obligations that are supported by homogeneous pools of assets that are contractually permitted to prepay principal (which category includes, for example, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)), as the total estimated expected future debt service due on insured obligations through their respective expected terms, which includes the Company’s expectations as to whether the obligations may be called and, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, when the Company expects principal payments to be made prior to contractual maturity. The calculation of debt service requires the use of estimates, which the Company updates periodically, including estimates and assumptions for the expected remaining term of insured obligations supported by homogeneous pools of assets, updated interest rates for floating and variable rate insured obligations, behavior of consumer price indices for obligations with consumer price index inflators, foreign exchange rates and other assumptions based on the characteristics of each insured obligation. Debt service is a measure of the estimated maximum potential exposure to insured obligations before considering the Company’s various legal rights to the underlying collateral and other remedies available to it under its financial guaranty contract. Actual debt service may differ from estimated debt service due to refundings, terminations, negotiated restructurings, prepayments, changes in interest rates on variable rate insured obligations, consumer price index behavior differing from that projected, changes in foreign exchange rates on non-U.S. dollar denominated insured obligations and other factors. Financial Guaranty Portfolio Debt Service and Par Outstanding
| As of June 30, 2023 |  | As of December 31, 2022
| Gross |  | Net |  | Gross |  | Net
| (in millions)
Debt Service |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 375,955 |  |  | $ | 375,751 |  |  | $ | 359,899 |  |  | $ | 359,703 |
Structured finance | 11,190 |  |  | 11,165 |  |  | 10,273 |  |  | 10,248 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 387,145 |  |  | $ | 386,916 |  |  | $ | 370,172 |  |  | $ | 369,951 |
Par Outstanding |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 234,136 |  |  | $ | 233,981 |  |  | $ | 224,254 |  |  | $ | 224,099 |
Structured finance | 10,057 |  |  | 10,032 |  |  | 9,184 |  |  | 9,159 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 244,193 |  |  | $ | 244,013 |  |  | $ | 233,438 |  |  | $ | 233,258 |
In addition to amounts shown in the table above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $2.0 billion of public finance direct gross par and $1.3 billion of structured finance direct gross par as of June 30, 2023. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in the guaranties and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts. Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of June 30, 2023
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 212 |  |  | 0.1 | % |  | $ | 2,038 |  |  | 4.3 | % |  | $ | 884 |  |  | 10.0 | % |  | $ | 474 |  |  | 39.3 | % |  | $ | 3,608 |  |  | 1.5 | %
AA |  | 17,452 |  |  | 9.4 |  |  | 3,442 |  |  | 7.2 |  |  | 4,580 |  |  | 51.9 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 1.0 |  |  | 25,486 |  |  | 10.5 |
A |  | 100,267 |  |  | 53.8 |  |  | 11,005 |  |  | 23.1 |  |  | 1,684 |  |  | 19.1 |  |  | 613 |  |  | 50.9 |  |  | 113,569 |  |  | 46.5 |
BBB |  | 64,852 |  |  | 34.8 |  |  | 30,147 |  |  | 63.2 |  |  | 611 |  |  | 6.9 |  |  | 106 |  |  | 8.8 |  |  | 95,716 |  |  | 39.2 |
BIG |  | 3,540 |  |  | 1.9 |  |  | 1,026 |  |  | 2.2 |  |  | 1,068 |  |  | 12.1 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 5,634 |  |  | 2.3 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 186,323 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 47,658 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,827 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 1,205 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 244,013 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of December 31, 2022
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 222 |  |  | 0.1 | % |  | $ | 1,967 |  |  | 4.4 | % |  | $ | 926 |  |  | 11.2 | % |  | $ | 469 |  |  | 50.4 | % |  | $ | 3,584 |  |  | 1.5 | %
AA |  | 16,241 |  |  | 9.1 |  |  | 3,497 |  |  | 7.9 |  |  | 4,633 |  |  | 56.3 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 1.3 |  |  | 24,383 |  |  | 10.5 |
A |  | 96,807 |  |  | 53.9 |  |  | 9,271 |  |  | 20.9 |  |  | 1,075 |  |  | 13.1 |  |  | 340 |  |  | 36.5 |  |  | 107,493 |  |  | 46.1 |
BBB |  | 62,570 |  |  | 34.8 |  |  | 28,747 |  |  | 64.6 |  |  | 479 |  |  | 5.8 |  |  | 110 |  |  | 11.8 |  |  | 91,906 |  |  | 39.4 |
BIG |  | 3,796 |  |  | 2.1 |  |  | 981 |  |  | 2.2 |  |  | 1,115 |  |  | 13.6 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 5,892 |  |  | 2.5 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 179,636 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 44,463 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,228 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 931 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 233,258 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of June 30, 2023
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 1,289 |  |  | $ | 931 |  |  | $ | 1,320 |  |  | $ | 3,540 |  |  | $ | 186,323 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 1,026 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 1,026 |  |  | 47,658 |
Public finance | 2,315 |  |  | 931 |  |  | 1,320 |  |  | 4,566 |  |  | 233,981 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 11 |  |  | 37 |  |  | 922 |  |  | 970 |  |  | 1,863 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 31 |  |  | 67 |  |  | 98 |  |  | 8,169 |
Structured finance | 11 |  |  | 68 |  |  | 989 |  |  | 1,068 |  |  | 10,032 |
Total | $ | 2,326 |  |  | $ | 999 |  |  | $ | 2,309 |  |  | $ | 5,634 |  |  | $ | 244,013 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of December 31, 2022
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 2,364 |  |  | $ | 108 |  |  | $ | 1,324 |  |  | $ | 3,796 |  |  | $ | 179,636 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 981 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 981 |  |  | 44,463 |
Public finance | 3,345 |  |  | 108 |  |  | 1,324 |  |  | 4,777 |  |  | 224,099 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 18 |  |  | 39 |  |  | 953 |  |  | 1,010 |  |  | 1,956 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 34 |  |  | 71 |  |  | 105 |  |  | 7,203 |
Structured finance | 18 |  |  | 73 |  |  | 1,024 |  |  | 1,115 |  |  | 9,159 |
Total | $ | 3,363 |  |  | $ | 181 |  |  | $ | 2,348 |  |  | $ | 5,892 |  |  | $ | 233,258 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of June 30, 2023
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 2,320 |  |  | $ | 6 |  |  | $ | 2,326 |  |  | 107 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 108 |
BIG 2 |  | 989 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 999 |  |  | 16 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 18 |
BIG 3 |  | 2,269 |  |  | 40 |  |  | 2,309 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 8 |  |  | 117 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 5,578 |  |  | $ | 56 |  |  | $ | 5,634 |  |  | 232 |  |  | 11 |  |  | 243 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of December 31, 2022
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 3,357 |  |  | $ | 6 |  |  | $ | 3,363 |  |  | 122 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 123 |
BIG 2 |  | 171 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 181 |  |  | 14 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 16 |
BIG 3 |  | 2,307 |  |  | 41 |  |  | 2,348 |  |  | 111 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 121 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 5,835 |  |  | $ | 57 |  |  | $ | 5,892 |  |  | 247 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 260 |
_____________________ (1) Includes FG VIEs. (2) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. Exposure to Puerto Rico The Company had insured exposure to obligations of various authorities and public corporations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico or the Commonwealth) as well as its general obligation bonds aggregating $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion net par outstanding as of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively. All of the Company’s insured exposure to Puerto Rico is rated BIG. The Company has paid claims as a result of payment defaults on all of its outstanding Puerto Rico exposures except the Municipal Finance Agency (MFA), the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), and the University of Puerto Rico (U of PR), each of which has continued to make timely debt service payments. On June 30, 2016, the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) was signed into law. PROMESA established a seven-member Financial Oversight and Management Board (the FOMB) with authority to require that balanced budgets and fiscal plans be adopted and implemented by Puerto Rico. Title III of PROMESA provides for a process analogous to a voluntary bankruptcy process under Chapter 9 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. After over five years of negotiations, a substantial portion of the Company’s Puerto Rico exposure was resolved in 2022 in accordance with four orders entered by the United States District Court of the District of Puerto Rico (Federal District Court of Puerto Rico) related to the Company’s exposure to all insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default in 2022 except Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions). As a result of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, during 2022 the Company’s obligations under its insurance policies covering debt of the Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA) and Puerto Rico Infrastructure Authority (PRIFA) were extinguished, and its insurance exposure to Puerto Rico general obligations (GO) bonds, Public Buildings Authority (PBA) bonds and Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) bonds was greatly reduced. Under the Modified Eighth Amended Title III Joint Plan of Adjustment of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the Employees Retirement System of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (GO/PBA Plan), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). In connection with the Modified Fifth Amended Title III Plan of Adjustment for PRHTA (HTA Plan) and related arrangements, the Company received cash and new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with the New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) from the PRHTA and CVIs from the Commonwealth. Cash, New Recovery Bonds and CVIs received pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions are collectively referred to as Plan Consideration. Plan Consideration is reported in either cash, investments or FG VIEs’ assets as described below. •Investments and cash. Plan Consideration received in respect of bondholders whose principal of bonds insured by the Company were accelerated against the Commonwealth and became due and payable under the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions are reported in Cash and Investments. See Note 7, Investments, for the fair value of the New Recovery Bonds and CVIs remaining as of June 30, 2023. •FG VIEs’ assets. Plan Consideration received in respect of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus Plan Consideration that constitute distributions under the HTA Plan or the GO/PBA Plan are reported in FG VIEs’ assets. The Company’s insurance policy continues to guarantee principal and interest coming due on the legacy insured bonds in accordance with the terms of such insurance policy on the originally scheduled legacy bond interest and principal payment dates to the extent that distributions of Plan Consideration are insufficient to pay or prepay such amounts. On July 28, 2023, the Company directed the trustee to notify certain holders of custody receipts representing interests in legacy insured GO, PBA and HTA bonds of its intent to satisfy on August 31, 2023 its obligations under the legacy insured bonds with respect to $108 million net par outstanding as of July 28, 2023 and, following payment of such obligations, AGC and AGM will receive the New Recovery Bonds and/or CVIs with notional amounts and maturity values totaling $94 million as of July 28, 2023 held as collateral with respect to the custodial trusts. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for the fair value of New Recovery Bonds remaining as of June 30, 2023. The Company has sold a portion of the New Recovery Bonds and CVIs and may sell in the future any New Recovery Bonds or CVIs it continues to hold. The fair value of any New Recovery Bonds and CVIs that the Company retains will fluctuate from their date of acquisition. Any gains or losses on sales of New Recovery Bonds and CVIs in the investment portfolio are reported as realized gains and losses on investments and fair value gains (losses) on trading securities, respectively, rather than loss and LAE. The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax (SUT) receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The notional amount of a CVI represents the sum of the maximum distributions the holder could receive under the CVI, subject to the cumulative and annual caps, if the SUT sufficiently exceeds 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, without any discount for time. Substantially all of the CVIs are reported in investments, rather than FG VIEs’ assets. The Company is continuing its efforts to resolve the one remaining Puerto Rico insured exposure that is in payment default, PREPA. Economic, political and legal developments, including inflation and increases in the cost of petroleum products, may impact any resolution of the Company’s PREPA insured exposure and the value of any remaining consideration received in connection with the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions or any future resolutions of the Company’s PREPA insured exposures. The impact of developments relating to Puerto Rico during any quarter or year could be material to the Company’s results of operations and shareholders’ equity. Puerto Rico Par and Debt Service Schedules All Puerto Rico exposures are internally rated BIG. The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. Puerto Rico Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding
| Gross Par Outstanding |  | Gross Debt Service Outstanding
| As of |  | As of
| June 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022 |  | June 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022
| (in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico | $ | 1,365 |  |  | $ | 1,378 |  |  | $ | 1,849 |  |  | $ | 1,899 |
Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding
| As of
| June 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022
| (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures |  |  |
PREPA | $ | 720 |  |  | $ | 720 |
Total Defaulted | 720 |  |  | 720 |
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures |  |  |
PRHTA (Transportation revenue) (1) | 293 |  |  | 298 |
PRHTA (Highway revenue) (1) | 182 |  |  | 182 |
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - GO (1) | 25 |  |  | 25 |
PBA (1) | 4 |  |  | 4 |
Total Resolved | 504 |  |  | 509 |
Other Puerto Rico Exposures |  |  |
MFA (2) | 124 |  |  | 131 |
PRASA and U of PR (2) | 1 |  |  | 1 |
Total Other | 125 |  |  | 132 |
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico | $ | 1,349 |  |  | $ | 1,361 |
____________________ (1) Resolved pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions. (2) All debt service on these insured exposures have been paid to date without any insurance claim being made on the Company. The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. The Company guarantees payment of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis, although in certain circumstances it may elect to do so. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the debt service due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors. Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding and Net Debt Service Outstanding As of June 30, 2023
| Scheduled Net Par Amortization |  | Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
| (in millions)
2023 (July 1 - September 30) | $ | 124 |  |  | $ | 154 |
2023 (October 1 - December 31) | — |  |  | 3 |
Subtotal 2023 | 124 |  |  | 157 |
2024 | 110 |  |  | 170 |
2025 | 94 |  |  | 149 |
2026 | 149 |  |  | 200 |
2027 | 124 |  |  | 168 |
2028-2032 | 378 |  |  | 528 |
2033-2037 | 240 |  |  | 309 |
2038-2041 | 130 |  |  | 148 |
Total | $ | 1,349 |  |  | $ | 1,829 |
PREPA As of June 30, 2023, the Company had $720 million insured net par outstanding of PREPA obligations. The Company believes that the PREPA obligations are secured by a lien on the revenues of the electric system. On May 3, 2019, AGM and AGC entered into a restructuring support agreement with PREPA and other stakeholders, including a group of uninsured PREPA bondholders, the Commonwealth and the FOMB (PREPA RSA). This agreement was terminated by Puerto Rico on March 8, 2022. On April 8, 2022, Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico issued an order appointing as members of a PREPA mediation team U.S. Bankruptcy Judges Shelley Chapman (lead mediator), Robert Drain and Brendan Shannon. Judge Swain also entered a separate order establishing the terms and conditions of mediation, including that the mediation would terminate on June 1, 2022. Judge Swain has since extended the term of such mediation several times, most recently on July 25, 2023 extending the term to October 30, 2023. The FOMB initially filed a plan of adjustment and disclosure statement for PREPA with the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico on December 16, 2022, and filed an amended version on February 9, 2023 (FOMB PREPA Plan). The Company expects that a confirmation hearing for the FOMB PREPA Plan will be held in fourth quarter 2023 or first quarter 2024. The FOMB PREPA Plan would split bondholders into two groups: one that would settle litigation regarding whether that creditor repayment is limited to existing accounts, and another group that would continue litigating that bondholders have a right to PREPA’s current and future revenue collections. The FOMB PREPA Plan provides for lower recoveries to bondholders than did previous agreements the FOMB reached with bondholders. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico approved the PREPA disclosure statement on February 28, 2023, which allowed bondholder solicitation on the FOMB PREPA Plan to begin. On March 22, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico held that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the sinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and related funds over which the bond trustee had control but did not have a lien in future revenues until deposited in those funds. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico also held, however, that PREPA bondholders do have recourse under the PREPA trust agreement in the form of an unsecured net revenue claim. At that time, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico declined to value the unsecured net revenue claim or the method for its determination. The ultimate value of the claim, according to the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico, should be determined through a claim estimation proceeding. On June 6-8, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico held a claim estimation proceeding and, on June 26, 2023, issued an opinion and order estimating the unsecured net revenue claim to be $2.4 billion as of July 3, 2017. This estimate included a determination that PREPA’s discounted cash flows, using FOMB’s base-case incremental net revenues over a 100-year collection period and a discount rate of 7%, would be $3.0 billion, and should be reduced by an additional 20% for “risk of success in achieving the projected cash flow through the actions of a receiver and other equitable remedies appropriate”. PREPA bondholders had sought an unsecured net revenue claim of approximately $8.5 billion. The Company expects to appeal portions of the March 22, 2023 decision, including the lien scope ruling and the need for a claim estimation proceeding, as well as the June 26, 2023 claim estimate ruling, upon final adjudication by the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico of all claims and counterclaims in the PREPA lien challenge proceedings. The last revised fiscal plan for PREPA was certified by the FOMB on June 23, 2023 (2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan). In the 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan, FOMB asserts that, other than for pension claims, PREPA’s debt capacity is $2.5 billion, of which approximately $1.4 billion is allocated to settling creditors. The remaining $1.1 billion is allocated pro rata to (i) non-settling bondholders, and (ii) general unsecured creditors (GUCs). The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico extended to August 11, 2023 the deadline for FOMB to file a further amended FOMB PREPA Plan based on the 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan. The Company believes that a further revised FOMB PREPA Plan would provide for reduced payments to bondholders since lower projected PREPA revenues are included in the 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan than had been previously anticipated. Since the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico’s estimated unsecured net revenue claim exceeds the $1.1 billion available to non-settling bondholders and GUCs under the 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan, the unsecured net revenue claim may be subject to further impairment. The 2023 PREPA Fiscal Plan contemplates that non-settling bondholders will receive at least 12.5% of their allowed claim in the form of restructuring bonds, as well as two CVIs allocated based on their allowed claim. PRHTA As of June 30, 2023, the Company had $475 million of insured net par outstanding of PRHTA bonds: $293 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (transportation revenue) bonds and $182 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (highway revenue) bonds. PRHTA net par outstanding represents the Company’s exposure in respect of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus Toll Bonds that constitute distributions under the HTA Plan. Puerto Rico GO and PBA As of June 30, 2023, the Company had remaining $25 million of insured net par outstanding of GO bonds and $4 million of insured net par outstanding of PBA bonds. GO/PBA net par outstanding represents the Company’s exposure in respect of insured bondholders who elected to receive custody receipts that represent an interest in the legacy insurance policy plus cash, New GO Bonds and CVIs that constitute distributions under the GO/PBA Plan. Other Puerto Rico Exposures All debt service payments for the Company’s remaining Puerto Rico exposures of $125 million insured net par outstanding have been made in full by the obligors as of the date of this filing. These exposures consist primarily of $124 million net par outstanding of MFA bonds, which are secured by a lien on local tax revenues. Puerto Rico Litigation Currently, there are numerous legal actions relating to the default by the Commonwealth and certain of its instrumentalities on debt service payments, and related matters, and the Company is a party to a number of them. The Company has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to Puerto Rico obligations which the Company insures. In addition, the Commonwealth, the FOMB and others have taken legal action naming the Company as party. A number of legal actions involving the Company and relating to the Commonwealth, PRCCDA and PRIFA, as well as claims related to the clawback of certain excise taxes and revenues pledged to secure bonds issued by PRHTA, were resolved on March 15, 2022, and all remaining legal actions involving the Company and relating to PRHTA were resolved on December 6, 2022, which together comprised the consummation of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions. Except for one proceeding related to PREPA, all proceedings involving the Company and relating to the default by the Commonwealth or its instrumentalities remain stayed pending the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico's determination on plans of adjustment or other proceedings. The following Puerto Rico proceeding in which the Company is involved is no longer stayed: •On July 1, 2019, the FOMB initiated an adversary proceeding against U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee for PREPA’s bonds, objecting to and challenging the validity, enforceability, and extent of prepetition security interests securing those bonds and seeking other relief. On September 30, 2022, the FOMB filed an amended complaint against the trustee (i) objecting to and challenging the validity, enforceability, and extent of prepetition security interests securing PREPA’s bonds and (ii) arguing that PREPA bondholders’ recourse was limited to certain deposit accounts held by the trustee. On October 7, 2022, the court approved a stipulation permitting AGM and AGC to intervene as defendants. Summary judgment motions were filed by plaintiffs and defendants on October 24, 2022. As noted above, on March 22, 2023, the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico granted in part and denied in part each party’s cross-motions for summary judgment. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico found that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the sinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and related funds over which the bond trustee had control. The Federal District Court of Puerto Rico also held that the PREPA bondholders do have recourse under the trust agreement in the form of an unsecured net revenue claim, but declined to value the unsecured net revenue claim. On April 13, 2023, the court issued an order proposing procedures to estimate the value of the unsecured net revenue claim arising from the Trustee’s ability to exercise remedies to obtain specific performance of PREPA’s covenants to fund the sinking fund, which must be done under the Bankruptcy Code for purposes of allowance. The order also set a discovery and expert report schedule, and directed the parties to engage in good faith mediation. A claim estimation hearing was held June 6-8, 2023, and in a June 26, 2023 opinion, the court estimated the PREPA bondholders’ allowed unsecured net revenue claim to be $2.4 billion, which the court calculated by largely adopting the conclusions in the FOMB’s expert report. On May 3, 2023, the court denied PREPA bondholders’ request to certify their interlocutory appeal of the finding that the PREPA bondholders had perfected liens only in revenues that had been deposited in the sinking fund established under the PREPA trust agreement and related funds over which the bond trustee had control. On May 15, 2023, the FOMB filed its motion to dismiss the Trustee’s and bondholders’ counterclaims. Unless mediation or a confirmed plan of adjustment leads to an acceptable outcome, AGM and AGC expect to appeal portions of the court’s decision, including the lien scope ruling and the result of the claim estimation proceeding, upon final adjudication by the court. The following Puerto Rico proceedings in which the Company is involved remain stayed: •On June 26, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a complaint in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico to compel the FOMB to certify the PREPA RSA for implementation under Title VI of PROMESA. On July 21, 2017, considering its PREPA Title III petition on July 2, 2017, the FOMB filed a notice of stay under PROMESA. •On July 18, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a motion for relief in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico from the automatic stay filed in the PREPA Title III Bankruptcy proceeding. The court denied the motion on September 14, 2017, but on August 8, 2018, the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit vacated and remanded the court’s decision. On October 3, 2018, AGM and AGC, together with other bond insurers, filed a motion with the court to lift the automatic stay to commence an action against PREPA for the appointment of a receiver. Following termination of mediation without a resolution and the filing of a motion to dismiss PREPA’s Title III case or to lift the automatic stay to allow for the appointment of a receiver, the court effectively stayed this matter until termination of the plan confirmation process. •On May 20, 2019, the FOMB and the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors filed an adversary complaint in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico challenging the validity, enforceability, and extent of security interests in PRHTA revenues. Relatedly, on January 16, 2020, the FOMB, on behalf of the PRHTA, brought an adversary proceeding in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico against AGM and AGC and other insurers of PRHTA bonds, objecting to the bond insurers claims in the PRHTA Title III proceedings and seeking to disallow such claims. These matters are currently stayed. On October 12, 2022, the court entered an order and judgment confirming the amended plan of adjustment for PRHTA filed by the FOMB with the court on September 6, 2022 (HTA Confirmation Order), and which provides that these adversary proceeding must be dismissed with prejudice within five business days of the HTA Confirmation Order becoming a final order, which should occur after all appeals of the HTA Confirmation Order have been resolved. •On September 30, 2019, certain parties that either had advanced funds to PREPA for the purchase of fuel or had succeeded to such claims (Fuel Line Lenders) filed an amended adversary complaint against the FOMB and other parties, including AGC and AGM, seeking subordination of PREPA bondholder claims to Fuel Line Lenders’ claims. On November 12, 2019, AGC and AGM filed a motion to dismiss the amended adversary complaint. On September 29, 2022, the court entered an order terminating the motion to dismiss without prejudice and indicating that the issues in the adversary proceeding will only be addressed, if necessary, after issues related to security and recourse of the PREPA bonds have been resolved or, if necessary, in connection with the confirmation of a plan of adjustment for PREPA. •On October 30, 2019, the retirement system for PREPA employees (SREAEE) filed an amended adversary complaint in the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico against the FOMB and other parties, seeking subordination of PREPA bondholder claims to SREAEE claims. On November 7, 2019, the court granted a motion to intervene by AGC and AGM. On November 13, 2019, AGC and AGM filed a motion to dismiss the amended adversary complaint. On September 29, 2022, the court entered an order terminating the motion to dismiss without prejudice, and indicating that the issues in the adversary proceeding will only be addressed, if necessary, after issues related to security and recourse of the PREPA bonds have been resolved or, if necessary, in connection with the confirmation of a plan of adjustment for PREPA. Specialty Business The Company also guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form. Specialty Insurance, Reinsurance and Guaranties
|  | As of June 30, 2023 |  | As of December 31, 2022
|  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure |  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure
|  | (in millions)
Life insurance transactions (1) |  | $ | 1,326 |  |  | $ | 992 |  |  | $ | 1,314 |  |  | $ | 986 |
Aircraft residual value insurance policies |  | 355 |  |  | 200 |  |  | 355 |  |  | 200 |
Other guaranties |  | 1,643 |  |  | 1,643 |  |  | 228 |  |  | 228 |
____________________ (1) The life insurance transactions net exposure is projected to reach $1.1 billion in 2025. As of both June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, gross exposure of $144 million and net exposure of $84 million of aircraft residual value insurance was internally rated BIG. All other exposures in the table above are rated investment-grade. The Company’s subsidiary, AGRO, also guarantees other specialty business included in other guaranties in the table above, including an excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AA. This guaranty matures in 2042. The Company’s maximum potential exposure under this guaranty was $1.6 billion as of June 30, 2023. The Company accounts for such guaranties in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

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- Definition The entity's insurance policies and credit derivative contracts guarantee the scheduled payments of principal and interest ("Debt Service") on public finance and structured finance obligations. Outstanding Exposure includes outstanding par and/or debt service amounts, including outstanding exposures on VIE's whether or not they are consolidated under US GAAP, on credits that are guaranteed by the entity. + References No definition available. + Details
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