XML 38 R14.htm IDEA: XBRL DOCUMENT
v3.24.1.u1

Contracts Accounted for as Insurance | 3 Months Ended
--- | ---
Mar. 31, 2024
Insurance [Abstract] |
Contracts Accounted for as Insurance | Contracts Accounted for as Insurance The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), includes contracts that are accounted for as insurance contracts, derivatives and consolidated FG VIEs. Amounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as insurance, unless otherwise specified. See Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for amounts related to CDS and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for amounts related to consolidated FG VIEs. Premiums Net Earned Premiums
| First Quarter
| 2024 |  | 2023
| (in millions)
Financial guaranty insurance: |  |  |
Scheduled net earned premiums | $ | 71 |  |  | $ | 69 |
Accelerations from refundings and terminations | 39 |  |  | 4 |
Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable | 7 |  |  | 7 |
Financial guaranty insurance net earned premiums | 117 |  |  | 80 |
Specialty net earned premiums | 2 |  |  | 1 |
Net earned premiums | $ | 119 |  |  | $ | 81 |
Gross Premium Receivable, Net of Commissions Payable on Assumed Business Roll Forward
| First Quarter
| 2024 |  | 2023
| (in millions)
Beginning of year | $ | 1,468 |  |  | $ | 1,298 |
Less: Specialty insurance premium receivable | 1 |  |  | 1 |
Financial guaranty insurance premiums receivable | 1,467 |  |  | 1,297 |
Gross written premiums on new business, net of commissions | 63 |  |  | 79 |
Gross premiums received, net of commissions | (75) |  |  | (64) |
Adjustments: |  |  |
Changes in the expected term and debt service assumptions | (3) |  |  | 6 |
Accretion of discount, net of commissions on assumed business | 7 |  |  | 7 |
Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement | (10) |  |  | 20 |
Financial guaranty insurance premium receivable | 1,449 |  |  | 1,345 |
Specialty insurance premium receivable | 1 |  |  | 1 |
March 31, | $ | 1,450 |  |  | $ | 1,346 |
Approximately 68% and 70% of gross premiums receivable, net of commissions payable, at March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the pound sterling and euro. The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections and net earned premiums may differ from those of expected collections and of expected net earned premiums in the table below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations, restructurings, changes in the consumer price indices, changes in expected lives and new business. Financial Guaranty Insurance Expected Future Premium Collections and Earnings
| As of March 31, 2024
| Future Premiums to be Collected (1) |  | Future Net Premiums to be Earned (2)
| (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30) | $ | 49 |  |  | $ | 71 |
2024 (July 1 - September 30) | 45 |  |  | 71 |
2024 (October 1 - December 31) | 23 |  |  | 70 |
Subtotal 2024 | 117 |  |  | 212 |
2025 | 124 |  |  | 266 |
2026 | 107 |  |  | 249 |
2027 | 103 |  |  | 234 |
2028 | 96 |  |  | 222 |
2029-2033 | 406 |  |  | 913 |
2034-2038 | 276 |  |  | 603 |
2039-2043 | 200 |  |  | 378 |
After 2043 | 391 |  |  | 520 |
Total | $ | 1,820 |  |  | 3,597 |
Future accretion |  |  | 369 |
Total future net earned premiums |  |  | $ | 3,966 |
____________________ (1) Net of assumed commissions payable. (2) Net of reinsurance. Selected Information for Financial Guaranty Insurance Policies with Premiums Paid in Installments
| As of
| March 31, 2024 |  | December 31, 2023
| (dollars in millions)
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable | $ | 1,449 |  | $ | 1,467
Deferred premium revenue | 1,757 |  | 1,768
Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums | 2.1% |  | 2.1%
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years) | 12.4 |  | 12.5
Losses and Recoveries Loss reserves and salvage are discounted at risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated financial guaranty insurance obligations that ranged from 4.14% to 5.33% with a weighted average of 4.49% as of March 31, 2024 and 3.79% to 5.40% with a weighted average of 4.17% as of December 31, 2023. The following tables provide information on net reserve (salvage), which includes loss and LAE reserves and salvage and subrogation recoverable, both net of reinsurance. Net Reserve (Salvage) by Sector
|  | As of
Sector |  | March 31, 2024 |  | December 31, 2023
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 119 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 1 |  |  | 1 |
Public finance |  | 101 |  |  | 120 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | (127) |  |  | (87) |
Other structured finance |  | 36 |  |  | 42 |
Structured finance |  | (91) |  |  | (45) |
Total |  | $ | 10 |  |  | $ | 75 |
The table below provides a reconciliation of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts to net expected loss to be expensed. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts differs from expected loss to be expensed due to: (i) the contra-paid, which represents the claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statements of operations; (ii) salvage and subrogation recoverable for transactions that are in a net recovery position where the Company has not yet received recoveries on claims previously paid (and therefore recognized in income but not yet received); and (iii) loss reserves that have already been established (and therefore expensed but not yet paid). Reconciliation of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) to Net Expected Loss to be Expensed Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
| As of March 31, 2024
| (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered) - financial guaranty insurance | $ | 188 |
Contra-paid, net | 22 |
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net | 294 |
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance | (301) |
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value) | $ | 203 |
The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation. Net Expected Loss to be Expensed Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
| As of March 31, 2024
| (in millions)
2024 (April 1 - June 30) | $ | 4 |
2024 (July 1 - September 30) | 3 |
2024 (October 1 - December 31) | 3 |
Subtotal 2024 | 10 |
2025 | 12 |
2026 | 15 |
2027 | 16 |
2028 | 14 |
2029-2033 | 67 |
2034-2038 | 47 |
2039-2043 | 11 |
After 2043 | 11 |
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value) | 203 |
Future accretion | (18) |
Total expected future loss and LAE | $ | 185 |
The following table presents the loss and LAE (benefit) reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations by sector for insurance contracts. Loss and LAE (Benefit) by Sector
|  | First Quarter
Sector |  | 2024 |  | 2023
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | (4) |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | — |  |  | — |
Public finance |  | (2) |  |  | (4) |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | $ | 2 |  |  | $ | 6 |
Other structured finance |  | (1) |  |  | 2 |
Structured finance |  | 1 |  |  | 8 |
Loss and LAE (benefit) |  | $ | (1) |  |  | $ | 4 |
The following tables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG. Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of March 31, 2024
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 91 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 212 |  |  | 212 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 9.4 |  | 15.7 |  | 6.9 |  | 9.7 |  | 9.7
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 2,362 |  |  | $ | 977 |  |  | $ | 1,817 |  |  | $ | 5,156 |  |  | $ | 5,141 |
Interest | 1,098 |  |  | 893 |  |  | 657 |  |  | 2,648 |  |  | 2,644 |
Total (2) | $ | 3,460 |  |  | $ | 1,870 |  |  | $ | 2,474 |  |  | $ | 7,804 |  |  | $ | 7,785 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 171 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 1,472 |  |  | $ | 1,830 |  |  | $ | 1,820 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (363) |  |  | (77) |  |  | (1,219) |  |  | (1,659) |  |  | (1,650) |
Subtotal | (192) |  |  | 110 |  |  | 253 |  |  | 171 |  |  | 170 |
Discount | 53 |  |  | (23) |  |  | (12) |  |  | 18 |  |  | 18 |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (139) |  |  | $ | 87 |  |  | $ | 241 |  |  | $ | 189 |  |  | $ | 188 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 96 |  |  | $ | 62 |  |  | $ | 136 |  |  | $ | 294 |  |  | $ | 294 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (175) |  |  | $ | 45 |  |  | $ | 137 |  |  | $ | 7 |  |  | $ | 7 |
Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of December 31, 2023
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 95 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 217 |  |  | 217 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 9.6 |  | 15.9 |  | 7.5 |  | 9.9 |  | 10.0
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 2,400 |  |  | $ | 979 |  |  | $ | 2,019 |  |  | $ | 5,398 |  |  | $ | 5,383 |
Interest | 1,126 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 818 |  |  | 2,840 |  |  | 2,836 |
Total (2) | $ | 3,526 |  |  | $ | 1,875 |  |  | $ | 2,837 |  |  | $ | 8,238 |  |  | $ | 8,219 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 176 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 1,585 |  |  | $ | 1,948 |  |  | $ | 1,938 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (376) |  |  | (78) |  |  | (1,214) |  |  | (1,668) |  |  | (1,659) |
Subtotal | (200) |  |  | 109 |  |  | 371 |  |  | 280 |  |  | 279 |
Discount | 56 |  |  | (22) |  |  | (53) |  |  | (19) |  |  | (19) |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (144) |  |  | $ | 87 |  |  | $ | 318 |  |  | $ | 261 |  |  | $ | 260 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 63 |  |  | $ | 142 |  |  | $ | 305 |  |  | $ | 305 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (181) |  |  | $ | 45 |  |  | $ | 209 |  |  | $ | 73 |  |  | $ | 72 |
____________________ (1) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. (2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs. (3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.

X
- Definition Financial Guaranty Insurance [Text Block] + References No definition available. + Details
Name: | ago_FinancialGuarantyInsuranceTextBlock
Namespace Prefix: | ago_
Data Type: | dtr-types1:textBlockItemType
Balance Type: | na
Period Type: | duration

X
- References No definition available. + Details
Name: | us-gaap_InsuranceAbstract
Namespace Prefix: | us-gaap_
Data Type: | xbrli:stringItemType
Balance Type: | na
Period Type: | duration