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Outstanding Exposure (Tables) | 6 Months Ended
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Jun. 30, 2024
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract] |
Debt Service Outstanding | Financial Guaranty Portfolio Debt Service and Par Outstanding
| As of June 30, 2024 |  | As of December 31, 2023
| Gross |  | Net |  | Gross |  | Net
| (in millions)
Debt Service |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 393,346 |  |  | $ | 393,272 |  |  | $ | 386,494 |  |  | $ | 386,419 |
Structured finance | 11,839 |  |  | 11,413 |  |  | 11,543 |  |  | 11,217 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 405,185 |  |  | $ | 404,685 |  |  | $ | 398,037 |  |  | $ | 397,636 |
Par Outstanding |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 244,232 |  |  | $ | 244,176 |  |  | $ | 239,352 |  |  | $ | 239,296 |
Structured finance | 10,646 |  |  | 10,220 |  |  | 10,183 |  |  | 9,857 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 254,878 |  |  | $ | 254,396 |  |  | $ | 249,535 |  |  | $ | 249,153 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating | Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of June 30, 2024
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 27 |  |  | — | % |  | $ | 2,066 |  |  | 4.2 | % |  | $ | 682 |  |  | 7.8 | % |  | $ | 445 |  |  | 30.5 | % |  | $ | 3,220 |  |  | 1.2 | %
AA |  | 18,100 |  |  | 9.3 |  |  | 3,164 |  |  | 6.3 |  |  | 5,623 |  |  | 64.2 |  |  | 74 |  |  | 5.0 |  |  | 26,961 |  |  | 10.6 |
A |  | 106,415 |  |  | 54.7 |  |  | 13,437 |  |  | 27.1 |  |  | 902 |  |  | 10.3 |  |  | 853 |  |  | 58.4 |  |  | 121,607 |  |  | 47.8 |
BBB |  | 66,561 |  |  | 34.2 |  |  | 29,831 |  |  | 60.2 |  |  | 625 |  |  | 7.1 |  |  | 89 |  |  | 6.1 |  |  | 97,106 |  |  | 38.2 |
BIG |  | 3,490 |  |  | 1.8 |  |  | 1,085 |  |  | 2.2 |  |  | 927 |  |  | 10.6 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 5,502 |  |  | 2.2 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 194,593 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 49,583 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,759 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 1,461 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 254,396 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of December 31, 2023
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 110 |  |  | 0.1 | % |  | $ | 2,062 |  |  | 4.2 | % |  | $ | 867 |  |  | 10.0 | % |  | $ | 465 |  |  | 38.0 | % |  | $ | 3,504 |  |  | 1.4 | %
AA |  | 17,883 |  |  | 9.4 |  |  | 3,379 |  |  | 6.9 |  |  | 4,517 |  |  | 52.3 |  |  | 89 |  |  | 7.3 |  |  | 25,868 |  |  | 10.4 |
A |  | 102,945 |  |  | 54.1 |  |  | 12,968 |  |  | 26.5 |  |  | 1,639 |  |  | 19.0 |  |  | 571 |  |  | 46.6 |  |  | 118,123 |  |  | 47.4 |
BBB |  | 66,080 |  |  | 34.7 |  |  | 29,467 |  |  | 60.1 |  |  | 574 |  |  | 6.7 |  |  | 100 |  |  | 8.1 |  |  | 96,221 |  |  | 38.6 |
BIG |  | 3,271 |  |  | 1.7 |  |  | 1,131 |  |  | 2.3 |  |  | 1,035 |  |  | 12.0 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 5,437 |  |  | 2.2 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 190,289 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 49,007 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,632 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 1,225 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 249,153 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Schedule of BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks | Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of June 30, 2024
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 1,594 |  |  | $ | 952 |  |  | $ | 944 |  |  | $ | 3,490 |  |  | 194,593 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 560 |  |  | 525 |  |  | — |  |  | 1,085 |  |  | 49,583 |
Public finance | 2,154 |  |  | 1,477 |  |  | 944 |  |  | 4,575 |  |  | 244,176 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 16 |  |  | 29 |  |  | 800 |  |  | 845 |  |  | 1,585 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 23 |  |  | 59 |  |  | 82 |  |  | 8,635 |
Structured finance | 16 |  |  | 52 |  |  | 859 |  |  | 927 |  |  | 10,220 |
Total | $ | 2,170 |  |  | $ | 1,529 |  |  | $ | 1,803 |  |  | $ | 5,502 |  |  | $ | 254,396 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of December 31, 2023
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 1,257 |  |  | $ | 926 |  |  | $ | 1,088 |  |  | $ | 3,271 |  |  | $ | 190,289 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 1,131 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 1,131 |  |  | 49,007 |
Public finance | 2,388 |  |  | 926 |  |  | 1,088 |  |  | 4,402 |  |  | 239,296 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 22 |  |  | 36 |  |  | 883 |  |  | 941 |  |  | 1,774 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 27 |  |  | 67 |  |  | 94 |  |  | 8,083 |
Structured finance | 22 |  |  | 63 |  |  | 950 |  |  | 1,035 |  |  | 9,857 |
Total | $ | 2,410 |  |  | $ | 989 |  |  | $ | 2,038 |  |  | $ | 5,437 |  |  | $ | 249,153 |
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks | Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of June 30, 2024
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 2,159 |  |  | $ | 11 |  |  | $ | 2,170 |  |  | 90 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 91 |
BIG 2 |  | 1,526 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 1,529 |  |  | 14 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 15 |
BIG 3 |  | 1,783 |  |  | 20 |  |  | 1,803 |  |  | 108 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 113 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 5,468 |  |  | $ | 34 |  |  | $ | 5,502 |  |  | 212 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 219 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of December 31, 2023
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 2,394 |  |  | $ | 16 |  |  | $ | 2,410 |  |  | 95 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 97 |
BIG 2 |  | 979 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 989 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 15 |
BIG 3 |  | 2,010 |  |  | 28 |  |  | 2,038 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 116 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 5,383 |  |  | $ | 54 |  |  | $ | 5,437 |  |  | 217 |  |  | 11 |  |  | 228 |
_____________________ (1) Includes FG VIEs. (2) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the obligations of the Puerto Rico authorities and public corporations that the Company insures. The Company guarantees payment of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis, although in certain circumstances it may elect to do so. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the debt service due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors. Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding and Net Debt Service Outstanding As of June 30, 2024
| Scheduled Net Par Amortization |  | Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
| (in millions)
2024 (July 1 - September 30) | $ | 110 |  |  | $ | 131 |
2024 (October 1 - December 31) | — |  |  | 3 |
Subtotal 2024 | 110 |  |  | 134 |
2025 | 84 |  |  | 124 |
2026 | 140 |  |  | 177 |
2027 | 120 |  |  | 151 |
2028 | 81 |  |  | 106 |
2029-2033 | 197 |  |  | 282 |
2034-2038 | 132 |  |  | 170 |
2039-2041 | 97 |  |  | 106 |
Total | $ | 961 |  |  | $ | 1,250 |
The following tables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG. Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of June 30, 2024
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 90 |  |  | 14 |  |  | 108 |  |  | 212 |  |  | 212 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 11.1 |  | 13.0 |  | 6.7 |  | 10.2 |  | 10.3
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 2,165 |  |  | $ | 1,526 |  |  | $ | 1,792 |  |  | $ | 5,483 |  |  | $ | 5,468 |
Interest | 1,146 |  |  | 1,201 |  |  | 639 |  |  | 2,986 |  |  | 2,983 |
Total (2) | $ | 3,311 |  |  | $ | 2,727 |  |  | $ | 2,431 |  |  | $ | 8,469 |  |  | $ | 8,451 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 101 |  |  | $ | 410 |  |  | $ | 1,470 |  |  | $ | 1,981 |  |  | $ | 1,971 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (275) |  |  | (336) |  |  | (1,241) |  |  | (1,852) |  |  | (1,842) |
Subtotal | (174) |  |  | 74 |  |  | 229 |  |  | 129 |  |  | 129 |
Discount | 38 |  |  | 42 |  |  | (9) |  |  | 71 |  |  | 71 |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (136) |  |  | $ | 116 |  |  | $ | 220 |  |  | $ | 200 |  |  | $ | 200 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 65 |  |  | $ | 98 |  |  | $ | 130 |  |  | $ | 293 |  |  | $ | 293 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (172) |  |  | $ | 48 |  |  | $ | 120 |  |  | $ | (4) |  |  | $ | (4) |
Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of December 31, 2023
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 95 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 217 |  |  | 217 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 9.6 |  | 15.9 |  | 7.5 |  | 9.9 |  | 10.0
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 2,400 |  |  | $ | 979 |  |  | $ | 2,019 |  |  | $ | 5,398 |  |  | $ | 5,383 |
Interest | 1,126 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 818 |  |  | 2,840 |  |  | 2,836 |
Total (2) | $ | 3,526 |  |  | $ | 1,875 |  |  | $ | 2,837 |  |  | $ | 8,238 |  |  | $ | 8,219 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 176 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 1,585 |  |  | $ | 1,948 |  |  | $ | 1,938 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (376) |  |  | (78) |  |  | (1,214) |  |  | (1,668) |  |  | (1,659) |
Subtotal | (200) |  |  | 109 |  |  | 371 |  |  | 280 |  |  | 279 |
Discount | 56 |  |  | (22) |  |  | (53) |  |  | (19) |  |  | (19) |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (144) |  |  | $ | 87 |  |  | $ | 318 |  |  | $ | 261 |  |  | $ | 260 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 63 |  |  | $ | 142 |  |  | $ | 305 |  |  | $ | 305 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (181) |  |  | $ | 45 |  |  | $ | 209 |  |  | $ | 73 |  |  | $ | 72 |
____________________ (1) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. (2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs. (3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.
Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding | The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to various authorities and public corporations of Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding
| Gross Par Outstanding |  | Gross Debt Service Outstanding
| As of |  | As of
| June 30, 2024 |  | December 31, 2023 |  | June 30, 2024 |  | December 31, 2023
| (in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico | $ | 976 |  |  | $ | 1,120 |  |  | $ | 1,268 |  |  | $ | 1,526 |
Schedule of Geographic Exposure of Net Par Outstanding | Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding
| As of
| June 30, 2024 |  | December 31, 2023
| (in millions)
Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposures |  |  |
PREPA | $ | 624 |  |  | $ | 624 |
Total Defaulted | 624 |  |  | 624 |
Resolved Puerto Rico Exposures (1) |  |  |
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue) | 204 |  |  | 244 |
PRHTA (Highway revenue) | 24 |  |  | 128 |
Total Resolved | 228 |  |  | 372 |
Non-Defaulting Puerto Rico Exposures (2) |  |  |
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA) | 108 |  |  | 108 |
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) and University of Puerto Rico (U of PR) | 1 |  |  | 1 |
Total Non-Defaulting | 109 |  |  | 109 |
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico | $ | 961 |  |  | $ | 1,105 |
____________________ (1) Resolved pursuant to the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions (as defined below). All of the Toll Bonds (as defined below) received from the PRHTA under the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions for the insured PRHTA bonds have been sold or redeemed; therefore, the remaining amounts owed for the insured PRHTA bonds are payable in full by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries under their financial guaranty policies and are no longer dependent on the credit of the PRHTA. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. (2) All debt service on these insured exposures have been paid to date without any insurance claim being made on the Company.
Schedule of Non-Financial Guaranty Exposure | Specialty Business
|  | As of June 30, 2024 |  | As of December 31, 2023
|  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure |  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure
|  | (in millions)
Insurance securitizations (1) |  | $ | 1,430 |  |  | $ | 1,099 |  |  | $ | 1,370 |  |  | $ | 1,043 |
Diversified real estate (2) |  | 1,498 |  |  | 1,498 |  |  | 1,569 |  |  | 1,569 |
Pooled corporate obligations |  | 796 |  |  | 796 |  |  | 488 |  |  | 488 |
Aircraft residual value insurance |  | 308 |  |  | 177 |  |  | 355 |  |  | 200 |
____________________ (1) Insurance securitizations exposure is projected to reach $1.6 billion gross in 2026 and $1.3 billion net in 2027. (2) Excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AA that matures in 2042. This guaranty is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

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