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Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) - Net Expected Loss to be Paid After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W Rollforward (Details) - USD ($) $ in Millions | 3 Months Ended | 9 Months Ended | 12 Months Ended
--- | --- | --- | ---
Sep. 30, 2024 | Sep. 30, 2023 | Sep. 30, 2024 | Sep. 30, 2023 | Dec. 31, 2023
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | $ 447 | $ 560 | $ 505 | $ 522 | $ 522
Accretion of discount | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 |
Changes in discount rates | 3 | (12) | 1 | (8) |
Changes in timing and assumptions | (42) | 93 | (35) | 140 |
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (34) | 87 | (20) | 147 |
Net (paid) recovered losses | (107) | (157) | (179) | (179) |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | 306 | 490 | $ 306 | 490 | 505
Period after the end of the reporting period within which the ceded paid losses are typically settled (in days) |  |  | 45 days |  |
Public finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 411 | 443 | $ 418 | 412 | 412
Total economic loss development (benefit) | 23 | 134 | 49 | 193 |
Net (paid) recovered losses | (115) | (169) | (148) | (197) |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | 319 | 408 | 319 | 408 | 418
Other structured finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 36 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (1) | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Net (paid) recovered losses | (2) | (1) | (11) | (6) |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | 33 | 44 | 33 | 44 | 44
Structured finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 36 | 117 | 87 | 110 | 110
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (57) | (47) | (69) | (46) |
Net (paid) recovered losses | 8 | 12 | (31) | 18 |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | (13) | 82 | $ (13) | 82 | $ 87
United States |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Weighted average risk free discount rate |  |  | 3.74% |  | 4.10%
Net expected loss to be paid after recoveries for representations and warranties, percent |  |  | 71.70% |  | 96.10%
United States | Public finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 374 | 433 | $ 398 | 403 | $ 403
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (23) | 135 | (14) | 193 |
Net (paid) recovered losses | (113) | (169) | (146) | (197) |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | 238 | 399 | 238 | 399 | 398
United States | RMBS |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 0 | 73 | 43 | 66 | 66
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (56) | (48) | (69) | (52) |
Net (paid) recovered losses | 10 | 13 | (20) | 24 |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | (46) | 38 | $ (46) | 38 | $ 43
United States | Minimum |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Risk free discount rate |  |  | 3.52% |  | 3.79%
United States | Maximum |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Risk free discount rate |  |  | 4.96% |  | 5.40%
Non-U.S. public finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Weighted average risk free discount rate |  |  | 3.94% |  | 3.28%
Non-U.S. public finance | Public finance |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | 37 | 10 | $ 20 | 9 | $ 9
Total economic loss development (benefit) | 46 | (1) | 63 | 0 |
Net (paid) recovered losses | (2) | 0 | (2) | 0 |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | $ 81 | $ 9 | $ 81 | $ 9 | $ 20
Non-U.S. public finance | Minimum |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Risk free discount rate |  |  | 1.86% |  | 1.90%
Non-U.S. public finance | Maximum |  |  |  |  |
Present Value of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid [Roll Forward] |  |  |  |  |
Risk free discount rate |  |  | 4.95% |  | 5.21%

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