The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), includes contracts that are accounted for as insurance contracts, derivatives and consolidated FG VIEs. Amounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as insurance, unless otherwise specified. See Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for amounts related to CDS and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for amounts related to consolidated FG VIEs.


	Third Quarter				Nine Months
	2024		2023		2024		2023
	(in millions)
Financial guaranty insurance:
Scheduled net earned premiums	$	73	$	73	$	216	$	212
Accelerations from refundings and terminations	14		14		56		26
Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable	8		7		23		20
Financial guaranty insurance net earned premiums	95		94		295		258
Specialty net earned premiums	2		1		5		3
Net earned premiums	$	97	$	95	$	300	$	261


	Nine Months
	2024		2023
	(in millions)
Beginning of year	$	1,468	$	1,298
Less: Specialty insurance premium receivable	1		1
Financial guaranty insurance premiums receivable	1,467		1,297
Gross written premiums on new business, net of commissions	278		215
Gross premiums received, net of commissions	(267)		(170)
Adjustments:
Changes in the expected term and debt service assumptions	(28)		4
Accretion of discount, net of commissions on assumed business	19		20
Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement	43		9
Financial guaranty insurance premium receivable	1,512		1,375
Specialty insurance premium receivable	1		1
September 30,	$	1,513	$	1,376

Approximately 69% and 70% of gross premiums receivable, net of commissions payable, at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the pound sterling and euro.

The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections and net earned premiums may differ from those of expected collections and of expected net earned premiums in the table below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations, restructurings, changes in the consumer price indices, changes in expected lives and new business.


	As of September 30, 2024
	Future Premiums to be Collected (1)		Future Net Premiums to be Earned (2)
	(in millions)
2024 (October 1 - December 31)	$	50	$	74
2025	151		281
2026	118		263
2027	113		247
2028	107		234
2029-2033	414		951
2034-2038	306		628
2039-2043	233		400
After 2043	437		543
Total	$	1,929	3,621
Future accretion			415
Total future net earned premiums			$	4,036


	As of
	September 30, 2024		December 31, 2023
	(dollars in millions)
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable	$	1,512	$	1,467
Deferred premium revenue	1,795		1,768
Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums	2.2%		2.1%
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years)	12.5		12.5

Loss reserves and salvage are discounted at risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated financial guaranty insurance obligations that ranged from 3.52% to 4.96% with a weighted average of 3.79% as of September 30, 2024 and 3.79% to 5.40% with a weighted average of 4.17% as of December 31, 2023.

The following tables provide information on net reserve (salvage), which includes loss and LAE reserves and salvage and subrogation recoverable, both net of reinsurance.


	As of
Sector	September 30, 2024		December 31, 2023
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	(33)	$	119
Non-U.S. public finance	1		1
Public finance	(32)		120
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	(158)		(87)
Other structured finance	32		42
Structured finance	(126)		(45)
Total	$	(158)	$	75

The table below provides a reconciliation of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts to net expected loss to be expensed. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts differs from expected loss to be expensed due to: (i) the contra-paid, which represents the claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statements of operations; (ii) salvage and subrogation recoverable for transactions that are in a net recovery position where the Company has not yet received recoveries on claims previously paid (and therefore recognized in income but not yet received); and (iii) loss reserves that have already been established (and therefore expensed but not yet paid).


	As of September 30, 2024
	(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered) - financial guaranty insurance	$	69
Contra-paid, net	24
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net	410
Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance	(251)
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)	$	252

The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.


	As of September 30, 2024
	(in millions)
2024 (October 1 - December 31)	$	3
2025	12
2026	12
2027	17
2028	18
2029-2033	90
2034-2038	48
2039-2043	13
After 2043	39
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value)	252
Future accretion	(76)
Total expected future loss and LAE	$	176


	Third Quarter				Nine Months
Sector	2024		2023		2024		2023
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	(11)	$	134	$	(12)	$	186
Non-U.S. public finance	—		—		—		—
Public finance	(11)		134		(12)		186
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	$	(39)	$	(35)	$	(42)	$	(31)
Other structured finance	(1)		1		—		4
Structured finance	(40)		(34)		(42)		(27)
Loss and LAE (benefit)	$	(51)	$	100	$	(54)	$	159


	Gross								Net Total BIG
	BIG 1		BIG 2		BIG 3		Total BIG
	(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)	102		12		100		214		214
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)	19.3		12.7		7.1		17.0		17.0

Outstanding exposure:
Par	$	7,463	$	1,546	$	1,622	$	10,631	$	10,617
Interest	7,131		1,214		598		8,943		8,940
Total (2)	$	14,594	$	2,760	$	2,220	$	19,574	$	19,557

Expected cash outflows (inflows)	$	4,056	$	379	$	1,320	$	5,755	$	5,746
Potential recoveries (3)	(4,272)		(346)		(1,145)		(5,763)		(5,753)
Subtotal	(216)		33		175		(8)		(7)
Discount	39		51		(14)		76		76
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)	$	(177)	$	84	$	161	$	68	$	69

Deferred premium revenue	$	199	$	97	$	121	$	417	$	417
Reserves (salvage)	$	(256)	$	28	$	68	$	(160)	$	(159)


	Gross								Net Total BIG
	BIG 1		BIG 2		BIG 3		Total BIG
	(dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1)	95		13		109		217		217
Remaining weighted-average period (in years)	9.6		15.9		7.5		9.9		10.0

Outstanding exposure:
Par	$	2,400	$	979	$	2,019	$	5,398	$	5,383
Interest	1,126		896		818		2,840		2,836
Total (2)	$	3,526	$	1,875	$	2,837	$	8,238	$	8,219

Expected cash outflows (inflows)	$	176	$	187	$	1,585	$	1,948	$	1,938
Potential recoveries (3)	(376)		(78)		(1,214)		(1,668)		(1,659)
Subtotal	(200)		109		371		280		279
Discount	56		(22)		(53)		(19)		(19)
Expected losses to be paid (recovered)	$	(144)	$	87	$	318	$	261	$	260

Deferred premium revenue	$	100	$	63	$	142	$	305	$	305
Reserves (salvage)	$	(181)	$	45	$	209	$	73	$	72

(3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.