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Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) (Tables) | 12 Months Ended
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Dec. 31, 2024
Expected Losses [Abstract] |
Net Expected Loss to be Paid By Accounting Model | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) and Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) by Accounting Model
|  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
|  | As of December 31, |  | Year Ended December 31,
Accounting Model |  | 2024 |  | 2023 |  | 2024 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
|  | (in millions) |  |
Insurance (see Note 5) |  | $ | 90 |  |  | $ | 263 |  |  | $ | (1) |  |  | $ | 174 |  |  | $ | (112) |
FG VIEs (see Note 8) (1) |  | 16 |  |  | 240 |  |  | (1) |  |  | (11) |  |  | (17) |
Credit derivatives (see Note 6) |  | — |  |  | 2 |  |  | (1) |  |  | 1 |  |  | 4 |
Total |  | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | 505 |  |  | $ | (3) |  |  | $ | 164 |  |  | $ | (125) |
____________________ (1) In 2023, the net expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs primarily related to trusts established as a result of the Company’s resolution in 2022 of exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than PREPA (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions) (Puerto Rico Trusts), and in 2024 the Company satisfied its remaining direct insured obligations and deconsolidated the remaining Puerto Rico Trusts.
Net Expected Loss to be Paid After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W Roll Forward | The following tables present a roll forward of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for all contracts, which are accounted for under one of the following accounting models: insurance, derivative or FG VIE. The Company used risk-free rates that ranged from 1.98% to 5.22% with a weighted average of 4.38% as of December 31, 2024 and 1.90% to 5.40% with a weighted average of 4.09% as of December 31, 2023. Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Roll Forward
| Year Ended December 31,
| 2024 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
| (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period | $ | 505 |  |  | $ | 522 |  |  | $ | 411 |
Economic loss development (benefit) due to: |  |  |  |  |
Accretion of discount | 16 |  |  | 20 |  |  | 16 |
Changes in discount rates | 4 |  |  | 3 |  |  | (115) |
Changes in timing and assumptions | (23) |  |  | 141 |  |  | (26) |
Total economic loss development (benefit) | (3) |  |  | 164 |  |  | (125) |
Net (paid) recovered losses (1) | (396) |  |  | (181) |  |  | 236 |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | 505 |  |  | $ | 522 |
____________________ (1) Net (paid) recovered losses includes (i) securities received as recoveries in 2022 in connection with the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions, and in 2023 in connection with the satisfaction of insurance obligations in the Puerto Rico Trusts, and (ii) claims paid in 2022, 2023 and 2024 to extinguish certain insured Puerto Rico exposures. Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Roll Forward by Sector
|  | Year Ended December 31, 2024
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2024
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 398 |  |  | $ | (9) |  |  | $ | (371) |  |  | $ | 18 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 20 |  |  | 81 |  |  | (3) |  |  | 98 |
Public finance |  | 418 |  |  | 72 |  |  | (374) |  |  | 116 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | 43 |  |  | (75) |  |  | (11) |  |  | (43) |
Other structured finance |  | 44 |  |  | — |  |  | (11) |  |  | 33 |
Structured finance |  | 87 |  |  | (75) |  |  | (22) |  |  | (10) |
Total |  | $ | 505 |  |  | $ | (3) |  |  | $ | (396) |  |  | $ | 106 |
|  | Year Ended December 31, 2023
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2022 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 403 |  |  | $ | 201 |  |  | $ | (206) |  |  | $ | 398 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 9 |  |  | 11 |  |  | — |  |  | 20 |
Public finance |  | 412 |  |  | 212 |  |  | (206) |  |  | 418 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | 66 |  |  | (56) |  |  | 33 |  |  | 43 |
Other structured finance |  | 44 |  |  | 8 |  |  | (8) |  |  | 44 |
Structured finance |  | 110 |  |  | (48) |  |  | 25 |  |  | 87 |
Total |  | $ | 522 |  |  | $ | 164 |  |  | $ | (181) |  |  | $ | 505 |
|  | Year Ended December 31, 2022
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2021 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2022
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 197 |  |  | $ | 19 |  |  | $ | 187 |  |  | $ | 403 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 12 |  |  | (2) |  |  | (1) |  |  | 9 |
Public finance |  | 209 |  |  | 17 |  |  | 186 |  |  | 412 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | 150 |  |  | (143) |  |  | 59 |  |  | 66 |
Other structured finance |  | 52 |  |  | 1 |  |  | (9) |  |  | 44 |
Structured finance |  | 202 |  |  | (142) |  |  | 50 |  |  | 110 |
Total |  | $ | 411 |  |  | $ | (125) |  |  | $ | 236 |  |  | $ | 522 |
____________________ (1) Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded as reinsurance recoverable on paid losses in “other assets.”
Schedule Of Net Expected Losses To Be Paid (Recovered) And Net Economic Development (Benefit) Loss | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) U.S. RMBS
| Year Ended December 31,
| 2024 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
| (in millions)
First lien U.S. RMBS | $ | (27) |  |  | $ | (7) |  |  | $ | (36) |
Second lien U.S. RMBS | (48) |  |  | (49) |  |  | (107) |
Total U.S. RMBS economic loss development (benefit) | $ | (75) |  |  | $ | (56) |  |  | $ | (143) |
Liquidation Rates and Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates First Lien RMBS | Key Assumptions in Base Scenario Expected Loss Estimates First Lien U.S. RMBS
| As of December 31, 2024 |  | As of December 31, 2023
| Range |  | Weighted Average |  | Range |  | Weighted Average
Plateau CDR | 0.0 | % | – | 8.8% |  | 3.4% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 10.0% |  | 4.2%
Final CDR | 0.0 | % | – | 0.4% |  | 0.2% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 0.5% |  | 0.2%
Initial loss severity | 40.0 | % | – | 50.0% |  | 43.1% |  | 50% |  |
Future recovery for deferred principal balances | 50% |  |  |  | 30% |  |
Liquidation rates (1) | 20 | % | – | 50% |  |  |  | 20 | % | – | 65% |  |
____________________ (1) The liquidation rates range from current but recently delinquent loans to foreclosed loans.
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates Second Lien RMBS | Key Assumptions in Base Scenario Expected Loss Estimates HELOCs
| As of December 31, 2024 |  | As of December 31, 2023
| Range |  | Weighted Average |  | Range |  | Weighted Average
Plateau CDR | 0.0 | % | – | 5.6% |  | 2.2% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 9.3% |  | 2.6%
Final CDR | 0.0 | % | – | 0.3% |  | 0.1% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 0.5% |  | 0.1%
Liquidation rates (1) | 20 | % | – | 55% |  |  |  | 20 | % | – | 60% |  |
Loss severity on future defaults | 98% |  |  |  | 98% |  |
Projected future recoveries on previously charged-off loans | 50% |  |  |  | 40% |  |
____________________ (1) The liquidation rates range from current but recently delinquent loans to foreclosed loans.

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- Definition Tabular disclosure of a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss and LAE to be paid for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as insurance by sector. Expected loss to be paid is the Company's estimate of the present value of future claim payments, net of reinsurance and net of salvage and subrogation which includes the present value benefit of estimated recoveries for breaches of R&W. + References No definition available. + Details
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