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Outstanding Exposure
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2024
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure  
Outstanding Exposure Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company sells credit protection primarily in financial guaranty insurance form. The Company may also sell credit protection by issuing policies that guarantee payment obligations under credit default swaps (CDS). The Company’s guaranties of CDS are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for its financial guaranty insurance contracts.

The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views to be investment grade at inception, although on occasion it may underwrite new issuances that it views to be below-investment grade (BIG), typically as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled exposures. The Company also seeks to acquire portfolios of insurance from financial guarantors that are no longer writing new business by acquiring such companies, providing reinsurance on or novating a portfolio of insurance; in such instances, it evaluates the risk characteristics of the target portfolio, which may include some BIG exposures, as a whole in the context of the proposed transaction. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across sector and geography and, in the structured finance portfolio, generally requires subordination or collateral to protect it from loss. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

     Public finance obligations insured by the Company primarily consist of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, healthcare facilities and government office buildings as well as obligations issued by U.S. and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on these VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

The Company also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance that are consistent with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience and other types of financial guaranties.

Significant Risk Management Activities

The Portfolio Risk Management Committee, which includes members of senior management and senior risk and surveillance officers, is responsible for enterprise risk management for the Company’s insurance business and focuses on measuring and managing credit, market and liquidity risk for the Company’s insurance business. This committee establishes company-wide credit policy for the Company’s direct and assumed insurance business. It implements specific underwriting procedures and limits and allocates underwriting capacity among the Company’s insurance subsidiaries. All insurance transactions in new asset classes or new jurisdictions, or otherwise outside the Company’s Board-approved risk appetite statement or its risk limits, must be approved by this committee.

The risk management committees of the insurance subsidiaries conduct in-depth reviews of the insured portfolios of the relevant subsidiaries, focusing on varying portions of the portfolio at each meeting. They review and may revise internal
ratings assigned to the insured transactions and review sector reports, monthly product line surveillance reports and compliance reports.
    
All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings by the relevant underwriting committee at inception, and such credit ratings are updated by the relevant risk management committee based on changes in transaction credit quality. As part of the surveillance process, the Company monitors trends and changes in transaction credit quality, and recommends such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. The Company also develops strategies to enforce its contractual rights and remedies and to mitigate its losses, engage in negotiation discussions with transaction participants and, when necessary, manage the Company’s litigation proceedings.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review of each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-.

The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and generally reflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company’s internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance.

The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual exposures in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the exposure’s credit quality, future loss potential, volatility and sector. More extensive monitoring and intervention are employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. Exposures identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine (i) the probability of a future loss, (ii) the calculation of the expected future loss to be paid, and (iii) whether the Company has paid a claim for which it expects to be reimbursed within one year (liquidity claim) or a claim for which it does not expect to be reimbursed within one year.

Ratings on exposures in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are also reviewed every quarter, although the Company may also review a rating in response to developments impacting a credit when a ratings review is not scheduled. For assumed exposures, the Company may use the ceding company’s credit ratings of transactions where it is impractical for it to assign its own rating.

The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories below, which generally represent the following:

BIG 1: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is less than 50%, regardless of whether the Company has or has not paid a liquidity claim.
BIG 2: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid.
BIG 3: Below-investment-grade exposures for which future losses are expected, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, and for which claims, other than liquidity claims, have been paid.

For purposes of classifying BIG exposures into one of the three BIG categories, the Company calculates the present value of projected claim payments and recoveries using the pre-tax book yield of the relevant insurance subsidiary’s investment portfolio as the applicable discount rate.

As discussed in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), for financial statement measurement purposes, the Company uses risk-free rates (as determined each quarter) for discounting, rather than pre-tax book yield of the investment portfolio, to calculate the expected losses to be paid. Expected losses to be paid (recovered) are based on probability weighted scenarios and serve as the basis for the loss reserves reported in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
Financial Guaranty Exposure

The Company measures its financial guaranty exposure in terms of: (i) gross and net par outstanding; and (ii) gross and net debt service.

The Company typically guarantees the payment of debt service when due. Since most of these payments are due in the future, the Company generally uses gross and net par outstanding as a proxy for its financial guaranty exposure. Gross par outstanding generally represents the principal amount of the insured obligation at a point in time. Net par outstanding equals gross par outstanding net of any reinsurance. The Company includes in its par outstanding calculation the impact of any consumer price index inflator to the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion to the reporting date. Non-U.S. dollar denominated par outstanding is translated at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period.

The Company has, from time to time, purchased securities that it has insured, and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The Company excludes amounts attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities from par and debt service outstanding, and instead reports Loss Mitigation Securities in the investment portfolio. The Company manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of both December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 the Company excluded net par outstanding of $1.2 billion attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities.

Gross debt service outstanding represents the sum of all estimated future debt service payments on the insured obligations, on an undiscounted basis. Net debt service outstanding equals gross debt service outstanding net of any reinsurance. Future debt service payments include the estimated impact of any consumer price index inflator after the reporting date, as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion after the reporting date.

The Company calculates its debt service outstanding as follows:

for insured obligations that are not supported by homogeneous pools of assets (which category includes most of the Company’s public finance transactions), as the total estimated contractual future debt service due through maturity, regardless of whether the obligations may be called and regardless of whether, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, the Company believes the obligations will be repaid prior to contractual maturity; and

for insured obligations that are supported by homogeneous pools of assets that are contractually permitted to prepay principal (which category includes, for example, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)), as the total estimated expected future debt service due on insured obligations through their respective expected terms, which reflects the Company’s expectations as to whether the obligations may be called and, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, when the Company expects principal payments to be made prior to contractual maturity.

The calculation of debt service requires the use of estimates, which the Company updates periodically, including estimates and assumptions for the expected remaining term of insured obligations supported by homogeneous pools of assets, updated interest rates for floating and variable rate insured obligations, behavior of consumer price indices for obligations with consumer price index inflators, foreign exchange rates and other assumptions based on the characteristics of each insured obligation. Debt service is a measure of the estimated maximum potential exposure to insured obligations before considering the Company’s various legal rights to the underlying collateral and other remedies available to it under its financial guaranty contract.

Actual debt service may differ from estimated debt service due to refundings, terminations, negotiated restructurings, prepayments, changes in interest rates on variable rate insured obligations, consumer price index behavior differing from that projected, changes in foreign exchange rates on non-U.S. dollar denominated insured obligations and other factors.
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Debt Service and Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2024 As of December 31, 2023
  GrossNet GrossNet
 (in millions)
Debt Service
Public finance$403,789 $403,718 $386,494 $386,419 
Structured finance12,674 12,248 11,543 11,217 
Total financial guaranty$416,463 $415,966 $398,037 $397,636 
Par Outstanding
Public finance$250,429 $250,375 $239,352 $239,296 
Structured finance11,603 11,177 10,183 9,857 
Total financial guaranty$262,032 $261,552 $249,535 $249,153 

In addition to amounts shown in the table above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $196 million of public finance gross par and $1.5 billion of structured finance gross par as of December 31, 2024. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in the guaranties and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Also, in connection with a potential transaction that would accelerate the run-off of the insured portfolio of Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC) (the Proposed Transaction) pursuant to the First Amended Plan of Rehabilitation for FGIC, dated June 4, 2013, the Company and FGIC are parties to a novation agreement dated as of February 8, 2024 pursuant to which certain FGIC policies insuring approximately $353 million of public finance (including infrastructure) gross par and approximately $50 million of structured finance gross par as of December 31, 2023 may in the future be novated to the Company in accordance with the terms and conditions of the novation agreement. The Proposed Transaction, including the novation of certain FGIC policies to the Company, is subject in all respects to review and approval by NYDFS, the reopening of FGIC’s rehabilitation proceeding, and ultimate approval by the Supreme Court of the State of New York. On September 10, 2024, following the NYDFS’s review of the Proposed Transaction and information submitted by FGIC, FGIC received a written communication from the NYDFS stating that the NYDFS does not support the Proposed Transaction. In the event the Proposed Transaction does not occur on or prior to September 30, 2025, either the Company or FGIC has the right to terminate the novation agreement in accordance with its terms.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2024
 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S.
Structured Finance
Non-U.S.
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$25 — %$2,074 4.2 %$512 6.1 %$470 17.3 %$3,081 1.2 %
AA17,664 8.8 2,854 5.8 5,386 63.7 58 2.1 25,962 9.9 
A111,502 55.5 13,046 26.5 952 11.3 2,117 77.7 127,617 48.8 
BBB69,096 34.3 24,828 50.5 707 8.3 79 2.9 94,710 36.2 
BIG2,888 1.4 6,398 13.0 896 10.6 — — 10,182 3.9 
Total net par outstanding$201,175 100.0 %$49,200 100.0 %$8,453 100.0 %$2,724 100.0 %$261,552 100.0 %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2023
 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S.
Structured Finance
Non-U.S.
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$110 0.1 %$2,062 4.2 %$867 10.0 %$465 38.0 %$3,504 1.4 %
AA17,883 9.4 3,379 6.9 4,517 52.3 89 7.3 25,868 10.4 
A102,945 54.1 12,968 26.5 1,639 19.0 571 46.6 118,123 47.4 
BBB66,080 34.7 29,467 60.1 574 6.7 100 8.1 96,221 38.6 
BIG3,271 1.7 1,131 2.3 1,035 12.0 — — 5,437 2.2 
Total net par outstanding$190,289 100.0 %$49,007 100.0 %$8,632 100.0 %$1,225 100.0 %$249,153 100.0 %
The following tables present net par outstanding by sector for the financial guaranty portfolio.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Net Par Outstanding by Sector
As of December 31,
Sector20242023
 (in millions)
Public finance:  
U.S. public finance:  
General obligation$78,162 $74,609 
Tax backed33,288 33,060 
Municipal utilities30,036 29,300 
Transportation26,958 22,052 
Healthcare14,007 12,604 
Infrastructure finance8,663 8,796 
Higher education7,381 7,250 
Housing revenue1,272 1,152 
Investor-owned utilities325 329 
Renewable energy164 167 
Other public finance919 970 
Total U.S. public finance201,175 190,289 
Non-U.S public finance:  
Regulated utilities 22,361 20,545 
Infrastructure finance14,961 15,430 
Sovereign and sub-sovereign9,181 9,869 
Renewable energy1,596 2,030 
Pooled infrastructure1,101 1,133 
Total non-U.S. public finance49,200 49,007 
Total public finance250,375 239,296 
Structured finance:  
U.S. structured finance:  
Insurance securitizations 4,495 4,379 
RMBS1,507 1,774 
Pooled corporate obligations607 631 
Financial products492 464 
Consumer receivables212 314 
Subscription finance facilities185 178 
Other structured finance955 892 
Total U.S. structured finance8,453 8,632 
Non-U.S. structured finance:  
Subscription finance facilities1,385 444 
Pooled corporate obligations468 425 
RMBS221 252 
Other structured finance650 104 
Total non-U.S structured finance2,724 1,225 
Total structured finance11,177 9,857 
Total net par outstanding$261,552 $249,153 

    
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2024
 Public FinanceStructured FinanceTotal
 (in millions)
0 to 5 years$52,502 $5,720 $58,222 
5 to 10 years54,255 3,220 57,475 
10 to 15 years46,053 1,007 47,060 
15 to 20 years32,126 702 32,828 
Over 20 years65,439 528 65,967 
Total net par outstanding$250,375 $11,177 $261,552 

Actual amortization differs from expected maturities due to prepayments and terminations, and because interest rates, consumer price indices, foreign exchange rates and expected terms may be different than management had estimated. The expected maturities of structured finance obligations are, in general, shorter than their contractual maturities.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2024
 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$2,119 $137 $632 $2,888 $201,175 
Non-U.S. public finance 5,879 519 — 6,398 49,200 
Public finance7,998 656 632 9,286 250,375 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS104 29 686 819 1,507 
Other structured finance— 21 56 77 9,670 
Structured finance104 50 742 896 11,177 
Total$8,102 $706 $1,374 $10,182 $261,552 

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2023
 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$1,257 $926 $1,088 $3,271 $190,289 
Non-U.S. public finance 1,131 — — 1,131 49,007 
Public finance2,388 926 1,088 4,402 239,296 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS22 36 883 941 1,774 
Other structured finance— 27 67 94 8,083 
Structured finance22 63 950 1,035 9,857 
Total$2,410 $989 $2,038 $5,437 $249,153 
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2024
 Net Par OutstandingNumber of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$8,074 $28 $8,102 98 101 
BIG 2702 706 12 13 
BIG 31,374 — 1,374 97 100 
Total BIG$10,150 $32 $10,182 207 214 

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2023
 Net Par OutstandingNumber of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$2,394 $16 $2,410 95 97 
BIG 2979 10 989 13 15 
BIG 32,010 28 2,038 109 116 
Total BIG$5,383 $54 $5,437 217 11 228 
_____________________
(1)    Includes FG VIEs.
(2)    A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
     
When the Company insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company seeks to maintain a diversified portfolio of insured obligations designed to spread its risk across a number of geographic areas.
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Geographic Distribution of Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2024
Number of RisksNet Par OutstandingPercent of Total Net Par Outstanding
 (dollars in millions)
U.S.:
U.S. public finance:
California1,182 $36,080 13.8 %
Texas1,145 26,004 9.9 
New York798 19,572 7.5 
Pennsylvania533 18,448 7.1 
Illinois479 12,536 4.8 
Florida218 11,353 4.3 
New Jersey248 8,824 3.4 
Louisiana139 4,994 1.9 
Michigan228 4,877 1.9 
Colorado171 4,012 1.5 
Other2,034 54,475 20.8 
Total U.S. public finance7,175 201,175 76.9 
U.S. structured finance (multiple states)328 8,453 3.2 
Total U.S.7,503 209,628 80.1 
Non-U.S.:
United Kingdom272 41,001 15.7 
Australia1,740 0.7 
Spain1,506 0.6 
France1,477 0.5 
Canada1,243 0.5 
Other49 4,957 1.9 
Total non-U.S.349 51,924 19.9 
Total7,852 $261,552 100.0 %

Specialty Business

The Company also guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form.

Specialty Business
As of December 31, 2024 As of December 31, 2023
Gross ExposureNet ExposureGross ExposureNet Exposure
(in millions)
Diversified real estate (1)$2,004 $2,004 $1,569 $1,569 
Insurance securitizations (2)1,449 1,126 1,370 1,043 
Pooled corporate obligations868 868 488 488 
Aircraft residual value insurance147 87 355 200 
____________________
(1)    Excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AAA that matures in 2044. This guaranty is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.
(2)    Insurance securitizations exposure is projected to reach $1.5 billion gross and $1.2 billion net in 2025.
    
All exposures in the table above are rated investment-grade, except for aircraft residual value insurance gross and net exposure of $5 million as of December 31, 2024 and gross exposure of $144 million and net exposure of $84 million as of December 31, 2023.

In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, as of December 31, 2024, the Company had outstanding aggregate gross and net aircraft residual value insurance commitments of $90 million and $51 million, respectively. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of specified conditions and may expire unused or be cancelled at the request of the respective counterparty. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future covered amounts.