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Outstanding Exposure | 3 Months Ended
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Mar. 31, 2025
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract] |
Outstanding Exposure | Outstanding Exposure The Company sells credit protection primarily in financial guaranty insurance form. The Company may also sell credit protection in other forms of insurance or by issuing policies that guarantee payment obligations under credit default swaps (CDS). The Company’s guaranties of CDS are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for its financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views to be investment grade at inception, although on occasion it may underwrite new issuances that it views to be below-investment grade (BIG), typically as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled exposures. The Company also seeks to acquire portfolios of insurance from financial guarantors that are no longer writing new business by acquiring such companies, providing reinsurance on or novating a portfolio of insurance; in such instances, it evaluates the risk characteristics of the target portfolio, which may include some BIG exposures, as a whole in the context of the proposed transaction. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across sector and geography and, in the structured finance portfolio, generally requires subordination or collateral to protect it from loss. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions. Public finance obligations insured by the Company primarily consist of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, healthcare facilities and government office buildings as well as obligations issued by U.S. and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities. Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on these VIEs whether or not they are consolidated. The Company also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance, and other types of financial guaranties, that are consistent with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience. Surveillance Categories The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review of each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and generally reflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company’s internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance. The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual exposures in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the exposure’s credit quality, future loss potential, volatility and sector. More extensive monitoring and intervention are employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. Exposures identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine (i) the probability of a future loss, (ii) the calculation of the expected future loss to be paid, and (iii) whether the Company has paid a claim for which it expects to be reimbursed within one year (liquidity claim) or a claim for which it does not expect to be reimbursed within one year. Ratings on exposures in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are also reviewed every quarter, although the Company may also review a rating in response to developments impacting a credit when a ratings review is not scheduled. For assumed exposures, the Company may use the ceding company’s credit ratings of transactions where it is impractical for it to assign its own rating. The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories below, which generally represent the following: •BIG 1: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is less than 50%, regardless of whether the Company has or has not paid a liquidity claim. •BIG 2: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid. •BIG 3: Below-investment-grade exposures for which future losses are expected, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, and for which claims, other than liquidity claims, have been paid. For purposes of classifying BIG exposures into one of the three BIG categories, the Company calculates the present value of projected claim payments and recoveries using the pre-tax book yield of the investment portfolio as the applicable discount rate. As discussed in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), for financial statement measurement purposes, the Company uses risk-free rates (as determined each quarter) for discounting, rather than the pre-tax book yield of the investment portfolio, to calculate the expected losses to be paid. Expected losses to be paid (recovered) are based on probability weighted scenarios and serve as the basis for the loss reserves reported in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Financial Guaranty Exposure The Company measures its financial guaranty exposure in terms of (i) gross and net par outstanding and (ii) gross and net debt service. The Company typically guarantees the payment of debt service when due. Since most of these payments are due in the future, the Company generally uses gross and net par outstanding as a proxy for its financial guaranty exposure. Gross par outstanding generally represents the principal amount of the insured obligation at a point in time. Net par outstanding equals gross par outstanding net of any reinsurance. The Company includes in its par outstanding calculation the impact of any consumer price index inflator to the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion to the reporting date. Non-U.S. dollar denominated par outstanding is translated at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period. The Company has, from time to time, purchased securities that it has insured, and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). Amounts attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities are excluded from par and debt service outstanding, and are instead reported as Loss Mitigation Securities in the investment portfolio. The Company manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of both March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, the Company excluded net par outstanding of $1.2 billion attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities. Gross debt service outstanding represents the sum of all estimated future debt service payments on the insured obligations, on an undiscounted basis. Net debt service outstanding equals gross debt service outstanding net of any reinsurance. Future debt service payments include the estimated impact of any consumer price index inflator after the reporting date, as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion after the reporting date. The Company calculates its debt service outstanding as follows: •for insured obligations that are not supported by homogeneous pools of assets (which category includes most of the Company’s public finance transactions), as the total estimated contractual future debt service due through maturity, regardless of whether the obligations may be called and regardless of whether, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, the Company believes the obligations will be repaid prior to contractual maturity; and •for insured obligations that are supported by homogeneous pools of assets that are contractually permitted to prepay principal (which category includes, for example, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)), as the total estimated expected future debt service due on insured obligations through their respective expected terms, which reflects the Company’s expectations as to whether the obligations may be called and, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, when the Company expects principal payments to be made prior to contractual maturity. The calculation of debt service requires the use of estimates, which the Company updates periodically, including estimates and assumptions for the expected remaining term of insured obligations supported by homogeneous pools of assets, updated interest rates for floating and variable rate insured obligations, behavior of consumer price indices for obligations with consumer price index inflators, foreign exchange rates and other assumptions based on the characteristics of each insured obligation. Debt service is a measure of the estimated maximum potential exposure to insured obligations before considering the Company’s various legal rights to the underlying collateral and other remedies available to it under its financial guaranty contract. Actual debt service may differ from estimated debt service due to refundings, terminations, negotiated restructurings, prepayments, changes in interest rates on variable rate insured obligations, consumer price index behavior differing from that projected, changes in foreign exchange rates on non-U.S. dollar denominated insured obligations and other factors. Financial Guaranty Portfolio Debt Service and Par Outstanding
| As of March 31, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
| Gross |  | Net |  | Gross |  | Net
| (in millions)
Debt Service |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 407,005 |  |  | $ | 406,933 |  |  | $ | 403,789 |  |  | $ | 403,718 |
Structured finance | 12,629 |  |  | 12,203 |  |  | 12,674 |  |  | 12,248 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 419,634 |  |  | $ | 419,136 |  |  | $ | 416,463 |  |  | $ | 415,966 |
Par Outstanding |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 252,586 |  |  | $ | 252,531 |  |  | $ | 250,429 |  |  | $ | 250,375 |
Structured finance | 11,486 |  |  | 11,060 |  |  | 11,603 |  |  | 11,177 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 264,072 |  |  | $ | 263,591 |  |  | $ | 262,032 |  |  | $ | 261,552 |
In addition to amounts shown in the table above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $956 million of public finance gross par and $1.6 billion of structured finance gross par as of March 31, 2025. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in the guaranties and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts. Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of March 31, 2025
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S. |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S. |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 24 |  |  | — | % |  | $ | 2,050 |  |  | 4.1 | % |  | $ | 503 |  |  | 6.0 | % |  | $ | 487 |  |  | 18.1 | % |  | $ | 3,064 |  |  | 1.2 | %
AA |  | 17,579 |  |  | 8.7 |  |  | 2,906 |  |  | 5.8 |  |  | 5,242 |  |  | 62.6 |  |  | 62 |  |  | 2.3 |  |  | 25,789 |  |  | 9.8 |
A |  | 113,268 |  |  | 56.0 |  |  | 12,226 |  |  | 24.4 |  |  | 1,019 |  |  | 12.2 |  |  | 2,060 |  |  | 76.7 |  |  | 128,573 |  |  | 48.8 |
BBB |  | 69,500 |  |  | 34.3 |  |  | 26,317 |  |  | 52.5 |  |  | 728 |  |  | 8.7 |  |  | 78 |  |  | 2.9 |  |  | 96,623 |  |  | 36.6 |
BIG |  | 2,046 |  |  | 1.0 |  |  | 6,615 |  |  | 13.2 |  |  | 881 |  |  | 10.5 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 9,542 |  |  | 3.6 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 202,417 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 50,114 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,373 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 2,687 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 263,591 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of December 31, 2024
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S. |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S. |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 25 |  |  | — | % |  | $ | 2,074 |  |  | 4.2 | % |  | $ | 512 |  |  | 6.1 | % |  | $ | 470 |  |  | 17.3 | % |  | $ | 3,081 |  |  | 1.2 | %
AA |  | 17,664 |  |  | 8.8 |  |  | 2,854 |  |  | 5.8 |  |  | 5,386 |  |  | 63.7 |  |  | 58 |  |  | 2.1 |  |  | 25,962 |  |  | 9.9 |
A |  | 111,502 |  |  | 55.5 |  |  | 13,046 |  |  | 26.5 |  |  | 952 |  |  | 11.3 |  |  | 2,117 |  |  | 77.7 |  |  | 127,617 |  |  | 48.8 |
BBB |  | 69,096 |  |  | 34.3 |  |  | 24,828 |  |  | 50.5 |  |  | 707 |  |  | 8.3 |  |  | 79 |  |  | 2.9 |  |  | 94,710 |  |  | 36.2 |
BIG |  | 2,888 |  |  | 1.4 |  |  | 6,398 |  |  | 13.0 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 10.6 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 10,182 |  |  | 3.9 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 201,175 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 49,200 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,453 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 2,724 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 261,552 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of March 31, 2025
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 904 |  |  | $ | 511 |  |  | $ | 631 |  |  | $ | 2,046 |  |  | $ | 202,417 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 6,076 |  |  | 539 |  |  | — |  |  | 6,615 |  |  | 50,114 |
Public finance | 6,980 |  |  | 1,050 |  |  | 631 |  |  | 8,661 |  |  | 252,531 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 99 |  |  | 29 |  |  | 677 |  |  | 805 |  |  | 1,474 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 20 |  |  | 56 |  |  | 76 |  |  | 9,586 |
Structured finance | 99 |  |  | 49 |  |  | 733 |  |  | 881 |  |  | 11,060 |
Total | $ | 7,079 |  |  | $ | 1,099 |  |  | $ | 1,364 |  |  | $ | 9,542 |  |  | $ | 263,591 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of December 31, 2024
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 2,119 |  |  | $ | 137 |  |  | $ | 632 |  |  | $ | 2,888 |  |  | $ | 201,175 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 5,879 |  |  | 519 |  |  | — |  |  | 6,398 |  |  | 49,200 |
Public finance | 7,998 |  |  | 656 |  |  | 632 |  |  | 9,286 |  |  | 250,375 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 104 |  |  | 29 |  |  | 686 |  |  | 819 |  |  | 1,507 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 21 |  |  | 56 |  |  | 77 |  |  | 9,670 |
Structured finance | 104 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 742 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 11,177 |
Total | $ | 8,102 |  |  | $ | 706 |  |  | $ | 1,374 |  |  | $ | 10,182 |  |  | $ | 261,552 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of March 31, 2025
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 7,052 |  |  | $ | 27 |  |  | $ | 7,079 |  |  | 91 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 94 |
BIG 2 |  | 1,095 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 1,099 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 14 |
BIG 3 |  | 1,364 |  |  | — |  |  | 1,364 |  |  | 96 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 99 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 9,511 |  |  | $ | 31 |  |  | $ | 9,542 |  |  | 200 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 207 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of December 31, 2024
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 8,074 |  |  | $ | 28 |  |  | $ | 8,102 |  |  | 98 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 101 |
BIG 2 |  | 702 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 706 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 13 |
BIG 3 |  | 1,374 |  |  | — |  |  | 1,374 |  |  | 97 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 100 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 10,150 |  |  | $ | 32 |  |  | $ | 10,182 |  |  | 207 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 214 |
_____________________ (1) Includes FG VIEs. (2) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments Specialty Business The Company also guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form. Specialty Business
|  | As of March 31, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
|  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure |  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure
|  | (in millions)
Diversified real estate (1) |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |
Insurance reserve financings and securitizations |  | 1,495 |  |  | 1,169 |  |  | 1,449 |  |  | 1,126 |
Pooled corporate obligations |  | 836 |  |  | 836 |  |  | 868 |  |  | 868 |
Aircraft residual value insurance |  | 147 |  |  | 87 |  |  | 147 |  |  | 87 |
____________________ (1) Excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AAA that matures in 2044. This guaranty is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees. All exposures in the table above are rated investment-grade, except for aircraft residual value insurance gross and net exposure of $5 million as of both March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024. In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, as of March 31, 2025, the Company had outstanding aggregate gross and net aircraft residual value insurance commitments of $90 million and $51 million, respectively. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of specified conditions and may expire unused or be cancelled at the request of the respective counterparty. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future covered amounts.

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- Definition Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract] + References No definition available. + Details
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- Definition The entity's insurance policies and credit derivative contracts guarantee the scheduled payments of principal and interest ("Debt Service") on public finance and structured finance obligations. Outstanding Exposure includes outstanding par and/or debt service amounts, including outstanding exposures on VIE's whether or not they are consolidated under US GAAP, on credits that are guaranteed by the entity. + References No definition available. + Details
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