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Outstanding Exposure (Tables) | 3 Months Ended
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Mar. 31, 2025
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract] |
Debt Service Outstanding | Financial Guaranty Portfolio Debt Service and Par Outstanding
| As of March 31, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
| Gross |  | Net |  | Gross |  | Net
| (in millions)
Debt Service |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 407,005 |  |  | $ | 406,933 |  |  | $ | 403,789 |  |  | $ | 403,718 |
Structured finance | 12,629 |  |  | 12,203 |  |  | 12,674 |  |  | 12,248 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 419,634 |  |  | $ | 419,136 |  |  | $ | 416,463 |  |  | $ | 415,966 |
Par Outstanding |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Public finance | $ | 252,586 |  |  | $ | 252,531 |  |  | $ | 250,429 |  |  | $ | 250,375 |
Structured finance | 11,486 |  |  | 11,060 |  |  | 11,603 |  |  | 11,177 |
Total financial guaranty | $ | 264,072 |  |  | $ | 263,591 |  |  | $ | 262,032 |  |  | $ | 261,552 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating | Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of March 31, 2025
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S. |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S. |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 24 |  |  | — | % |  | $ | 2,050 |  |  | 4.1 | % |  | $ | 503 |  |  | 6.0 | % |  | $ | 487 |  |  | 18.1 | % |  | $ | 3,064 |  |  | 1.2 | %
AA |  | 17,579 |  |  | 8.7 |  |  | 2,906 |  |  | 5.8 |  |  | 5,242 |  |  | 62.6 |  |  | 62 |  |  | 2.3 |  |  | 25,789 |  |  | 9.8 |
A |  | 113,268 |  |  | 56.0 |  |  | 12,226 |  |  | 24.4 |  |  | 1,019 |  |  | 12.2 |  |  | 2,060 |  |  | 76.7 |  |  | 128,573 |  |  | 48.8 |
BBB |  | 69,500 |  |  | 34.3 |  |  | 26,317 |  |  | 52.5 |  |  | 728 |  |  | 8.7 |  |  | 78 |  |  | 2.9 |  |  | 96,623 |  |  | 36.6 |
BIG |  | 2,046 |  |  | 1.0 |  |  | 6,615 |  |  | 13.2 |  |  | 881 |  |  | 10.5 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 9,542 |  |  | 3.6 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 202,417 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 50,114 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,373 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 2,687 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 263,591 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating As of December 31, 2024
|  | Public Finance U.S. |  | Public Finance Non-U.S. |  | Structured Finance U.S. |  | Structured Finance Non-U.S. |  | Total
Rating Category |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | % |  | Net Par Outstanding |  | %
|  | (dollars in millions)
AAA |  | $ | 25 |  |  | — | % |  | $ | 2,074 |  |  | 4.2 | % |  | $ | 512 |  |  | 6.1 | % |  | $ | 470 |  |  | 17.3 | % |  | $ | 3,081 |  |  | 1.2 | %
AA |  | 17,664 |  |  | 8.8 |  |  | 2,854 |  |  | 5.8 |  |  | 5,386 |  |  | 63.7 |  |  | 58 |  |  | 2.1 |  |  | 25,962 |  |  | 9.9 |
A |  | 111,502 |  |  | 55.5 |  |  | 13,046 |  |  | 26.5 |  |  | 952 |  |  | 11.3 |  |  | 2,117 |  |  | 77.7 |  |  | 127,617 |  |  | 48.8 |
BBB |  | 69,096 |  |  | 34.3 |  |  | 24,828 |  |  | 50.5 |  |  | 707 |  |  | 8.3 |  |  | 79 |  |  | 2.9 |  |  | 94,710 |  |  | 36.2 |
BIG |  | 2,888 |  |  | 1.4 |  |  | 6,398 |  |  | 13.0 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 10.6 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 10,182 |  |  | 3.9 |
Total net par outstanding |  | $ | 201,175 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 49,200 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 8,453 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 2,724 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  | $ | 261,552 |  |  | 100.0 | %
Schedule of BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks | Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of March 31, 2025
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 904 |  |  | $ | 511 |  |  | $ | 631 |  |  | $ | 2,046 |  |  | $ | 202,417 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 6,076 |  |  | 539 |  |  | — |  |  | 6,615 |  |  | 50,114 |
Public finance | 6,980 |  |  | 1,050 |  |  | 631 |  |  | 8,661 |  |  | 252,531 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 99 |  |  | 29 |  |  | 677 |  |  | 805 |  |  | 1,474 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 20 |  |  | 56 |  |  | 76 |  |  | 9,586 |
Structured finance | 99 |  |  | 49 |  |  | 733 |  |  | 881 |  |  | 11,060 |
Total | $ | 7,079 |  |  | $ | 1,099 |  |  | $ | 1,364 |  |  | $ | 9,542 |  |  | $ | 263,591 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding As of December 31, 2024
| BIG Net Par Outstanding |  | Net Par
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |  | Outstanding
|  |  |  |  | (in millions) |  |  |  |
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance | $ | 2,119 |  |  | $ | 137 |  |  | $ | 632 |  |  | $ | 2,888 |  |  | $ | 201,175 |
Non-U.S. public finance | 5,879 |  |  | 519 |  |  | — |  |  | 6,398 |  |  | 49,200 |
Public finance | 7,998 |  |  | 656 |  |  | 632 |  |  | 9,286 |  |  | 250,375 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS | 104 |  |  | 29 |  |  | 686 |  |  | 819 |  |  | 1,507 |
Other structured finance | — |  |  | 21 |  |  | 56 |  |  | 77 |  |  | 9,670 |
Structured finance | 104 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 742 |  |  | 896 |  |  | 11,177 |
Total | $ | 8,102 |  |  | $ | 706 |  |  | $ | 1,374 |  |  | $ | 10,182 |  |  | $ | 261,552 |
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks | Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of March 31, 2025
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 7,052 |  |  | $ | 27 |  |  | $ | 7,079 |  |  | 91 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 94 |
BIG 2 |  | 1,095 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 1,099 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 14 |
BIG 3 |  | 1,364 |  |  | — |  |  | 1,364 |  |  | 96 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 99 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 9,511 |  |  | $ | 31 |  |  | $ | 9,542 |  |  | 200 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 207 |
Financial Guaranty Portfolio BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks As of December 31, 2024
|  | Net Par Outstanding |  | Number of Risks (2)
Description |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total |  | Financial Guaranty Insurance (1) |  | Credit Derivatives |  | Total
|  | (dollars in millions)
BIG 1 |  | $ | 8,074 |  |  | $ | 28 |  |  | $ | 8,102 |  |  | 98 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 101 |
BIG 2 |  | 702 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 706 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 13 |
BIG 3 |  | 1,374 |  |  | — |  |  | 1,374 |  |  | 97 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 100 |
Total BIG |  | $ | 10,150 |  |  | $ | 32 |  |  | $ | 10,182 |  |  | 207 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 214 |
_____________________ (1) Includes FG VIEs. (2) A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments The following tables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG. Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of March 31, 2025
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 91 |  |  | 13 |  |  | 96 |  |  | 200 |  |  | 200 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 18.6 |  | 12.0 |  | 5.9 |  | 16.5 |  | 16.6
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 7,058 |  |  | $ | 1,095 |  |  | $ | 1,372 |  |  | $ | 9,525 |  |  | $ | 9,511 |
Interest | 6,443 |  |  | 769 |  |  | 400 |  |  | 7,612 |  |  | 7,610 |
Total (2) | $ | 13,501 |  |  | $ | 1,864 |  |  | $ | 1,772 |  |  | $ | 17,137 |  |  | $ | 17,121 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 4,140 |  |  | $ | 425 |  |  | $ | 1,312 |  |  | $ | 5,877 |  |  | $ | 5,868 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (4,306) |  |  | (304) |  |  | (1,129) |  |  | (5,739) |  |  | (5,730) |
Subtotal | (166) |  |  | 121 |  |  | 183 |  |  | 138 |  |  | 138 |
Discount | 11 |  |  | — |  |  | (17) |  |  | (6) |  |  | (6) |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (155) |  |  | $ | 121 |  |  | $ | 166 |  |  | $ | 132 |  |  | $ | 132 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 266 |  |  | $ | 57 |  |  | $ | 113 |  |  | $ | 436 |  |  | $ | 436 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (241) |  |  | $ | 68 |  |  | $ | 77 |  |  | $ | (96) |  |  | $ | (95) |
Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary As of December 31, 2024
| Gross |  | Net Total BIG
| BIG 1 |  | BIG 2 |  | BIG 3 |  | Total BIG |
| (dollars in millions)
Number of risks (1) | 98 |  |  | 12 |  |  | 97 |  |  | 207 |  |  | 207 |
Remaining weighted-average period (in years) | 18.6 |  | 8.8 |  | 6.1 |  | 16.6 |  | 16.6
Outstanding exposure: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Par | $ | 8,080 |  |  | $ | 702 |  |  | $ | 1,382 |  |  | $ | 10,164 |  |  | $ | 10,150 |
Interest | 7,546 |  |  | 371 |  |  | 421 |  |  | 8,338 |  |  | 8,335 |
Total (2) | $ | 15,626 |  |  | $ | 1,073 |  |  | $ | 1,803 |  |  | $ | 18,502 |  |  | $ | 18,485 |
Expected cash outflows (inflows) | $ | 4,016 |  |  | $ | 342 |  |  | $ | 1,307 |  |  | $ | 5,665 |  |  | $ | 5,656 |
Potential recoveries (3) | (4,201) |  |  | (293) |  |  | (1,132) |  |  | (5,626) |  |  | (5,616) |
Subtotal | (185) |  |  | 49 |  |  | 175 |  |  | 39 |  |  | 40 |
Discount | 43 |  |  | 29 |  |  | (23) |  |  | 49 |  |  | 49 |
Expected losses to be paid (recovered) | $ | (142) |  |  | $ | 78 |  |  | $ | 152 |  |  | $ | 88 |  |  | $ | 89 |
Deferred premium revenue | $ | 333 |  |  | $ | 49 |  |  | $ | 116 |  |  | $ | 498 |  |  | $ | 498 |
Reserves (salvage) | $ | (226) |  |  | $ | 35 |  |  | $ | 62 |  |  | $ | (129) |  |  | $ | (128) |
____________________ (1)A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. (2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs. (3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.
Schedule of Non-Financial Guaranty Exposure | The Company also guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form. Specialty Business
|  | As of March 31, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
|  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure |  | Gross Exposure |  | Net Exposure
|  | (in millions)
Diversified real estate (1) |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |  |  | $ | 2,004 |
Insurance reserve financings and securitizations |  | 1,495 |  |  | 1,169 |  |  | 1,449 |  |  | 1,126 |
Pooled corporate obligations |  | 836 |  |  | 836 |  |  | 868 |  |  | 868 |
Aircraft residual value insurance |  | 147 |  |  | 87 |  |  | 147 |  |  | 87 |
____________________ (1) Excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AAA that matures in 2044. This guaranty is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

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