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Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) (Tables) | 9 Months Ended
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Sep. 30, 2025
Expected Losses [Abstract] |
Net Expected Loss to be Paid By Accounting Model | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) and Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) by Accounting Model
|  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
|  | As of |  | Third Quarter |  | Nine Months
Accounting Model |  | September 30, 2025 |  | December 31, 2024 |  | 2025 |  | 2024 |  | 2025 |  | 2024
|  | (in millions)
Insurance (see Note 5) |  | $ | 92 |  |  | $ | 90 |  |  | $ | (35) |  |  | $ | (31) |  |  | $ | 51 |  |  | $ | (19) |
FG VIEs (see Note 8) |  | 12 |  |  | 16 |  |  | (4) |  |  | (1) |  |  | (5) |  |  | — |
Credit derivatives (see Note 6) |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | 1 |  |  | (2) |  |  | (63) |  |  | (1) |
Total |  | $ | 104 |  |  | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | (38) |  |  | $ | (34) |  |  | $ | (17) |  |  | $ | (20) |
Net Expected Loss to be Paid After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W Roll Forward | The following tables present a roll forward of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for all contracts, which are accounted for under one of the following accounting models: insurance, derivative or FG VIE. The Company used risk-free rates for U.S. and non-U.S. currencies that ranged from 1.92% to 5.70% with a weighted average of 4.02% as of September 30, 2025 and 1.98% to 5.22% with a weighted average of 4.38% as of December 31, 2024. Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Roll Forward
|  | Third Quarter |  | Nine Months
|  | 2025 |  | 2024 |  | 2025 |  | 2024
| (in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period |  | $ | 186 |  |  | $ | 447 |  |  | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | 505 |
Economic loss development (benefit) due to: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Accretion of discount |  | 2 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 14 |
Changes in discount rates |  | — |  |  | 3 |  |  | 6 |  |  | 1 |
Changes in timing and assumptions |  | (40) |  |  | (42) |  |  | (28) |  |  | (35) |
Total economic loss development (benefit) (1) |  | (38) |  |  | (34) |  |  | (17) |  |  | (20) |
Net (paid) recovered losses (1) |  | (44) |  |  | (107) |  |  | 15 |  |  | (179) |
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period |  | $ | 104 |  |  | $ | 306 |  |  | $ | 104 |  |  | $ | 306 |
____________________ (1) Nine months 2025 amounts include recoveries recognized in connection with the resolution of the LBIE litigation. See Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for additional information. Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Roll Forward by Sector
|  | Third Quarter 2025
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2025 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2025
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 53 |  |  | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | (81) |  |  | $ | (30) |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 139 |  |  | (6) |  |  | — |  |  | 133 |
Public finance |  | 192 |  |  | (8) |  |  | (81) |  |  | 103 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | (35) |  |  | (31) |  |  | 7 |  |  | (59) |
Other structured finance (2) |  | 29 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 30 |  |  | 60 |
Structured finance |  | (6) |  |  | (30) |  |  | 37 |  |  | 1 |
Total |  | $ | 186 |  |  | $ | (38) |  |  | $ | (44) |  |  | $ | 104 |
|  | Third Quarter 2024
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2024 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2024
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 374 |  |  | $ | (23) |  |  | $ | (113) |  |  | $ | 238 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 37 |  |  | 46 |  |  | (2) |  |  | 81 |
Public finance |  | 411 |  |  | 23 |  |  | (115) |  |  | 319 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | — |  |  | (56) |  |  | 10 |  |  | (46) |
Other structured finance |  | 36 |  |  | (1) |  |  | (2) |  |  | 33 |
Structured finance |  | 36 |  |  | (57) |  |  | 8 |  |  | (13) |
Total |  | $ | 447 |  |  | $ | (34) |  |  | $ | (107) |  |  | $ | 306 |
|  | Nine Months 2025
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2024 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2025
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 18 |  |  | $ | 51 |  |  | $ | (99) |  |  | $ | (30) |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 98 |  |  | 36 |  |  | (1) |  |  | 133 |
Public finance |  | 116 |  |  | 87 |  |  | (100) |  |  | 103 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | (43) |  |  | (40) |  |  | 24 |  |  | (59) |
Other structured finance (2) |  | 33 |  |  | (64) |  |  | 91 |  |  | 60 |
Structured finance |  | (10) |  |  | (104) |  |  | 115 |  |  | 1 |
Total |  | $ | 106 |  |  | $ | (17) |  |  | $ | 15 |  |  | $ | 104 |
|  | Nine Months 2024
Sector |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023 |  | Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) |  | Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1) |  | Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2024
|  | (in millions)
Public finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. public finance |  | $ | 398 |  |  | $ | (14) |  |  | $ | (146) |  |  | $ | 238 |
Non-U.S. public finance |  | 20 |  |  | 63 |  |  | (2) |  |  | 81 |
Public finance |  | 418 |  |  | 49 |  |  | (148) |  |  | 319 |
Structured finance: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. RMBS |  | 43 |  |  | (69) |  |  | (20) |  |  | (46) |
Other structured finance |  | 44 |  |  | — |  |  | (11) |  |  | 33 |
Structured finance |  | 87 |  |  | (69) |  |  | (31) |  |  | (13) |
Total |  | $ | 505 |  |  | $ | (20) |  |  | $ | (179) |  |  | $ | 306 |
____________________ (1) Amounts are net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded as reinsurance recoverable on paid losses in “other assets.” (2) Nine months 2025 amounts include recoveries recognized in connection with the resolution of the LBIE litigation. See Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for additional information. Includes cash proceeds for recoveries related to claims previously paid.
Schedule Of Net Expected Losses To Be Paid (Recovered) And Net Economic Development (Benefit) Loss | Expected losses are also a function of the structure of the transaction, the interest rate environment and other factors. Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) U.S. RMBS
| Third Quarter |  | Nine Months
| 2025 |  | 2024 |  | 2025 |  | 2024
| (in millions)
First lien U.S. RMBS | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | (21) |  |  | $ | (4) |  |  | $ | (24) |
Second lien U.S. RMBS | (29) |  |  | (35) |  |  | (36) |  |  | (45) |
Total U.S. RMBS economic loss development (benefit) | $ | (31) |  |  | $ | (56) |  |  | $ | (40) |  |  | $ | (69) |
Liquidation Rates and Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates First Lien RMBS | The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by outstanding net insured par, for key assumptions used in the calculation of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for individual transactions for vintage 2004 - 2008 first lien U.S. RMBS. Key Assumptions in Base Scenario Expected Loss Estimates First Lien U.S. RMBS
| As of September 30, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
| Range |  | Weighted Average |  | Range |  | Weighted Average
Plateau CDR | 0.0 | % | - | 9.2% |  | 3.2% |  | 0.0 | % | - | 8.8% |  | 3.4%
Final CDR | 0.0 | % | - | 0.5% |  | 0.2% |  | 0.0 | % | - | 0.4% |  | 0.2%
Initial loss severity | 40.0 | % | - | 50.0% |  | 43.0% |  | 40.0 | % | - | 50.0% |  | 43.1%
Future recovery for deferred principal balances | 50% |  |  |  | 50% |  |
Liquidation rates (1) | 20 | % | - | 50% |  |  |  | 20 | % | - | 50% |  |
____________________ (1) The liquidation rates range from current but recently delinquent loans to foreclosed loans.
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates Second Lien RMBS | The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by net par outstanding, for key assumptions used in the calculation of expected loss to be paid (recovered) for individual transactions for vintage 2004 - 2008 HELOCs. Key Assumptions in Base Scenario Expected Loss Estimates HELOCs
| As of September 30, 2025 |  | As of December 31, 2024
| Range |  | Weighted Average |  | Range |  | Weighted Average
Plateau CDR | 0.1 | % | – | 10.7% |  | 2.2% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 5.6% |  | 2.2%
Final CDR | 0.0 | % | – | 0.5% |  | 0.1% |  | 0.0 | % | – | 0.3% |  | 0.1%
Liquidation rates (1) | 20 | % | – | 55% |  |  |  | 20 | % | – | 55% |  |
Loss severity on future defaults | 98% |  |  |  | 98% |  |
Projected future recoveries on previously charged-off loans | 60% |  |  |  | 50% |  |
____________________ (1) The liquidation rates range from current but recently delinquent loans to foreclosed loans.

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- Definition Tabular disclosure of a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss and LAE to be paid for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as insurance by sector. Expected loss to be paid is the Company's estimate of the present value of future claim payments, net of reinsurance and net of salvage and subrogation which includes the present value benefit of estimated recoveries for breaches of R&W. + References No definition available. + Details
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