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Income Taxes | 9 Months Ended
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Sep. 30, 2025
Income Tax Disclosure [Abstract] |
Income Taxes | Income Taxes Overview AGL is a tax resident in the U.K. although it remains a Bermuda-based company and its administrative and head office functions are carried on in Bermuda. AGL’s subsidiaries are subject to income taxes imposed by the local tax authorities in the jurisdictions in which they operate and file applicable tax returns. In addition, AGRO, a Bermuda domiciled company, has elected under Section 953(d) of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to be taxed as a U.S. domestic corporation. In July of 2023, the U.K. government passed legislation to implement the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Pillar Two income inclusion rule. This includes a multinational top-up tax which applies to large multinational corporations for accounting periods beginning on or after December 31, 2023. This applies to AGL and its subsidiaries, requiring a minimum effective rate of 15% in all jurisdictions in which they operate. On December 27, 2023, the Bermuda government enacted a corporate income tax at the rate of 15% which applies to the Bermuda Subsidiaries (collectively, AG Re, AGRO and Cedar Personnel Ltd.) for accounting periods starting on or after January 1, 2025. On July 4, 2025, the U.S. Congress passed budget reconciliation bill H.R. 1 referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The OBBBA includes significant provisions, such as the permanent extension of certain expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, modifications to the international tax framework and the restoration of favorable tax treatment for certain business provisions. The legislation has multiple effective dates, with certain provisions effective in 2025 and others implemented through 2027. The Company is currently assessing its impact on its consolidated financial statements but does not expect it to have a material impact. AGUS files a consolidated federal income tax return with all of its U.S. subsidiaries. Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries, AGRO and AG Intermediary Inc., file their own consolidated federal income tax return. Provision for Income Taxes The Company’s provision for income taxes for interim financial periods is not based on an estimated annual effective rate due in part to the variability in loss reserves, fair value of its credit derivatives and VIEs and foreign exchange gains and losses which prevent the Company from projecting a reliable estimated annual effective tax rate and pre-tax income for the full year 2025. A discrete calculation of the provision is calculated for each interim period. The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions. The effective tax rates reflect the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries with •U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21%, •French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%, •Bermuda Subsidiaries taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 15% starting January 1, 2025, and 0% for 2024, unless subject to U.S. tax by election, and •U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. marginal corporate tax rate of 25%. The Company’s effective tax rate was 15.4%, 19.9%, 18.5% and 19.2% for third quarter 2025, third quarter 2024, nine months 2025 and nine months 2024, respectively. The effective tax rates are different from the expected tax provision (benefit) primarily due to a tax provision for U.S. state taxes, a tax benefit for U.S. tax-exempt interest, and foreign taxes. In addition, third quarter 2024 and nine months 2024 included the global minimum tax. Audits During nine months 2025, the IRS audit of AGUS’s 2018 and 2019 tax years closed with no impact to previously accrued taxes. As of September 30, 2025, AGUS had open tax years with the IRS for 2021 forward and is currently under audit for the 2021 tax year. As of September 30, 2025, Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. had open tax years with the IRS for 2021 forward and is not currently under audit with the IRS. In December 2023, His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC) issued an inquiry into the Company’s 2021 U.K. tax returns. In October 2025, HMRC issued an inquiry into the Company’s 2022 and 2023 U.K. tax returns. As of September 30, 2025, the Company’s U.K. subsidiaries had open tax years with HMRC for 2021 forward. The Company’s French subsidiary is not currently under examination and has open tax years of 2021 forward.

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