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Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses (Tables)
 12 Months Ended
Oct. 31, 2025
Text Block [Abstract]  
Summary of Continuity in Loss Allowance by Each Product Type
 
The following table shows the continuity in the loss allowance, by product type, for the years ended October 31, 2025 and 2024. Transfers represent the amount of ECL that moved between stages during the year; for example, from a
12-month
(Stage 1) to a lifetime (Stage 2) ECL measurement basis. Net remeasurement represents the ECL impact due to transfers between stages, as well as changes in economic forecasts and credit quality. Model changes include the ECL impact of new calculation models or methodologies.
 
(Canadian $ in millions)                           
2025
                           2024  
     
   Stage 1
     
   Stage 2
     
  Stage 3 
(1)		     
   Total
        Stage 1       Stage 2       Stage 3 (1)        Total  
Loans: Residential mortgages
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
     
 
  
 
    
 
Balance as at beginning of year
   
$
56
 
   
$
186
 
   
$
19
 
   
$
261
 
    $ 73     $ 151     $ 10     $ 234  
Transfer to Stage 1
   
 
151
 
   
 
(148
)
   
 
(3
)
   
 
–
 
      132       (130 )      (2 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 2
   
 
(15
)
   
 
50
 
   
 
(35
)
   
 
–
 
      (26 )      42       (16 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 3
   
 
–
 
   
 
(44
)
   
 
44
 
   
 
–
 
      (1 )      (29 )      30       –  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
   
 
(135
)
   
 
154
 
   
 
54
 
   
 
73
 
      (142 )      170       36       64  
Loan originations
   
 
23
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
23
 
      24       –       –       24  
Derecognitions and maturities
   
 
(5
)
   
 
(16
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
(21
)
      (3 )      (13 )      –       (16 ) 
Model changes
   
 
(20
)
   
 
(3
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
(23
)
      (1 )      (5 )      –       (6 ) 
Total PCL
(2)
   
 
(1
)
   
 
(7
)
   
 
60
 
   
 
52
 
      (17 )      35       48       66  
Write-offs
(3)
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
(10
)
   
 
(10
)
      –       –       (5 )      (5 ) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
9
 
   
 
9
 
      –       –       7       7  
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
1
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
(66
)
   
 
(65
)
      –       –       (41 )      (41 ) 
Balance as at end of year
   
$
56
 
   
$
179
 
   
$
12
 
   
$
247
 
    $ 56     $ 186     $ 19     $ 261  
Loans: Consumer instalment and other personal
                     
Balance as at beginning of year
   
$
197
 
   
$
471
 
   
$
175
 
   
$
843
 
    $ 220     $ 434     $ 152     $ 806  
Transfer to Stage 1
   
 
331
 
   
 
(310
)
   
 
(21
)
   
 
–
 
      301       (283 )      (18 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 2
   
 
(62
)
   
 
114
 
   
 
(52
)
   
 
–
 
      (44 )      91       (47 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 3
   
 
(7
)
   
 
(177
)
   
 
184
 
   
 
–
 
      (7 )      (133 )      140       –  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
   
 
(317
)
   
 
421
 
   
 
483
 
   
 
587
 
      (237 )      355       437       555  
Loan originations
   
 
32
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
32
 
      54       –       –       54  
Derecognitions and maturities
   
 
(19
)
   
 
(40
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
(59
)
      (16 )      (38 )      (12 )      (66 ) 
Model changes
   
 
46
 
   
 
77
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
123
 
      15       46       –       61  
Total PCL
(2)
   
 
4
 
   
 
85
 
   
 
594
 
   
 
683
 
      66       38       500       604  
Write-offs
(3)
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
(692
)
   
 
(692
)
      –       –       (623 )      (623 ) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
151
 
   
 
151
 
      –       –       195       195  
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
(1
)
   
 
(1
)
   
 
(68
)
   
 
(70
)
      (89 )      (1 )      (49 )      (139 ) 
Balance as at end of year
   
$
200
 
   
$
555
 
   
$
160
 
   
$
915
 
    $ 197     $ 471     $ 175     $ 843  
Loans: Credit cards
                     
Balance as at beginning of year
   
$
233
 
   
$
472
 
   
$
–
 
   
$
705
 
    $ 188     $ 308     $ –     $ 496  
Transfer to Stage 1
   
 
239
 
   
 
(239
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
      226       (226 )      –       –  
Transfer to Stage 2
   
 
(115
)
   
 
116
 
   
 
(1
)
   
 
–
 
      (64 )      64       –       –  
Transfer to Stage 3
   
 
(9
)
   
 
(453
)
   
 
462
 
   
 
–
 
      (6 )      (290 )      296       –  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
   
 
(194
)
   
 
633
 
   
 
311
 
   
 
750
 
      (182 )      633       308       759  
Loan originations
   
 
52
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
52
 
      76       –       –       76  
Derecognitions and maturities
   
 
(13
)
   
 
(50
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
(63
)
      (8 )      (27 )      –       (35 ) 
Model changes
   
 
(2
)
   
 
135
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
133
 
      4       9       –       13  
Total PCL
(2)
   
 
(42
)
   
 
142
 
   
 
772
 
   
 
872
 
      46       163       604       813  
Write-offs
(3)
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
(903
)
   
 
(903
)
      –       –       (720 )      (720 ) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
209
 
   
 
209
 
      –       –       171       171  
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
(3
)
   
 
(11
)
   
 
(78
)
   
 
(92
)
      (1 )      1       (55 )      (55 ) 
Balance as at end of year
   
$
188
 
   
$
603
 
   
$
–
 
   
$
791
 
    $ 233     $ 472     $ –     $ 705  
Loans: Business and government
                     
Balance as at beginning of year
   
$
892
 
   
$
1,698
 
   
$
537
 
   
$
3,127
 
    $ 1,043     $ 1,155     $ 533     $ 2,731  
Transfer to Stage 1
   
 
553
 
   
 
(510
)
   
 
(43
)
   
 
–
 
      601       (575 )      (26 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 2
   
 
(254
)
   
 
362
 
   
 
(108
)
   
 
–
 
      (278 )      394       (116 )      –  
Transfer to Stage 3
   
 
(8
)
   
 
(388
)
   
 
396
 
   
 
–
 
      (9 )      (310 )      319       –  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
   
 
(419
)
   
 
1,166
 
   
 
1,476
 
   
 
2,223
 
      (599 )      1,189       1,748       2,338  
Loan originations
   
 
285
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
285
 
      278       8       –       286  
Derecognitions and maturities
   
 
(146
)
   
 
(402
)
   
 
–
 
   
 
(548
)
      (147 )      (308 )      (11 )      (466 ) 
Model changes
   
 
24
 
   
 
27
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
51
 
      53       57       –       110  
Total PCL
(2)
   
 
35
 
   
 
255
 
   
 
1,721
 
   
 
2,011
 
      (101 )      455       1,914       2,268  
Write-offs
(3)
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
(1,367
)
   
 
(1,367
)
      –       –       (1,802 )      (1,802 ) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
314
 
   
 
314
 
      –       –       194       194  
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
4
 
   
 
44
 
   
 
(347
)
   
 
(299
)
      (50 )      88       (302 )      (264 ) 
Balance as at end of year
   
$
931
 
   
$
1,997
 
   
$
858
 
   
$
3,786
 
    $ 892     $ 1,698     $ 537     $ 3,127  
Total as at end of year
   
$
1,375
 
   
$
3,334
 
   
$
1,030
 
   
$
5,739
 
    $ 1,378     $ 2,827     $ 731     $ 4,936  
Comprising: Loans
   
$
1,119
 
   
$
2,957
 
   
$
974
 
   
$
5,050
 
    $ 1,143     $ 2,560     $ 653     $ 4,356  
       Other credit instruments
(4)
   
 
256
 
   
 
377
 
   
 
56
 
   
 
689
 
      235       267       78       580  
 
  (1)
Includes changes in allowance for purchased credit impaired (PCI) loans.
  (2)
Excludes PCL on other assets of $(1) million for the year ended October 31, 2025 ($10 million for the year ended October 
31
, 2024).
  (3)
Generally, we continue to seek recovery on amounts that were written off during the year, unless the loan is sold, we no longer have the right to collect or we have exhausted all reasonable efforts to collect.
  (4)
Other credit instruments, including
off-balance
sheet items, are recorded in other liabilities in our Consolidated Balance Sheet.
Summary of Credit Risk Exposures for Loans Carried at Amortized Cost, FVOCI or FVTPL
The following table sets out our credit risk exposure for all loans carried at amortized cost, FVOCI or FVTPL as at October 31, 2025 and 2024. Stage 1 represents performing loans carried with up to a
12-month
ECL, Stage 2 represents performing loans carried with a lifetime ECL and Stage 3 represents loans with a lifetime ECL that are credit impaired.
 
(Canadian $ in millions)                           
2025
                          2024  
     
   Stage 1
     
   Stage 2
     
Stage 3 
(1) (2)		     
   Total
       Stage 1       Stage 2     Stage 3
 
(1) (2)		       Total  
Loans: Residential mortgages
(3)
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
   
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
Exceptionally low
   
$
1
 
   
$
–
 
   
$
–
 
   
$
1
 
   $ 1     $ –     $ –     $ 1  
Very low
   
 
110,299
 
   
 
844
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
111,143
 
     86,730       5,631       –       92,361  
Low
   
 
50,148
 
   
 
3,051
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
53,199
 
     52,111       15,080       –       67,191  
Medium
   
 
7,048
 
   
 
6,713
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
13,761
 
     7,402       5,329       –       12,731  
High
   
 
240
 
   
 
3,032
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
3,272
 
     268       2,622       –       2,890  
Not rated
(4)
   
 
12,802
 
   
 
952
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
13,754
 
     14,207       1,042       –       15,249  
Impaired
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
903
 
   
 
903
 
     –       –       657       657  
Gross residential mortgages
   
 
180,538
 
   
 
14,592
 
   
 
903
 
   
 
196,033
 
     160,719       29,704       657       191,080  
ACL
   
 
56
 
   
 
178
 
   
 
12
 
   
 
246
 
     56       185       10       251  
Carrying amount
   
 
180,482
 
   
 
14,414
 
   
 
891
 
   
 
195,787
 
     160,663       29,519       647       190,829  
Loans: Consumer instalment and other personal
                    
Exceptionally low
   
 
9,984
 
   
 
1
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
9,985
 
     9,162       145       –       9,307  
Very low
   
 
21,962
 
   
 
35
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
21,997
 
     20,466       903       –       21,369  
Low
   
 
26,238
 
   
 
2,682
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
28,920
 
     26,125       4,575       –       30,700  
Medium
   
 
6,991
 
   
 
5,566
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
12,557
 
     7,405       5,526       –       12,931  
High
   
 
670
 
   
 
2,164
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
2,834
 
     789       2,017       –       2,806  
Not rated
(4)
   
 
14,812
 
   
 
1,009
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
15,821
 
     14,522       475       –       14,997  
Impaired
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
627
 
   
 
627
 
     –       –       577       577  
Gross consumer instalment and other personal
   
 
80,657
 
   
 
11,457
 
   
 
627
 
   
 
92,741
 
     78,469       13,641       577       92,687  
ACL
   
 
182
 
   
 
532
 
   
 
160
 
   
 
874
 
     183       447       168       798  
Carrying amount
   
 
80,475
 
   
 
10,925
 
   
 
467
 
   
 
91,867
 
     78,286       13,194       409       91,889  
Loans: Credit cards
(5)
                    
Exceptionally low
   
 
1,643
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,643
 
     1,660       –       –       1,660  
Very low
   
 
2,129
 
   
 
4
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
2,133
 
     2,166       1       –       2,167  
Low
   
 
1,846
 
   
 
80
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,926
 
     2,110       60       –       2,170  
Medium
   
 
3,550
 
   
 
1,191
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
4,741
 
     4,544       824       –       5,368  
High
   
 
592
 
   
 
1,232
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,824
 
     746       922       –       1,668  
Not rated
(4)
   
 
260
 
   
 
122
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
382
 
     430       149       –       579  
Impaired
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
     –       –       –       –  
Gross credit cards
   
 
10,020
 
   
 
2,629
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
12,649
 
     11,656       1,956       –       13,612  
ACL
   
 
125
 
   
 
527
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
652
 
     161       421       –       582  
Carrying amount
   
 
9,895
 
   
 
2,102
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
11,997
 
     11,495       1,535       –       13,030  
Loans: Business and government
(3) (6)
                    
Acceptable
                    
Investment grade
   
 
188,707
 
   
 
3,873
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
192,580
 
     191,742       3,437       –       195,179  
Sub-investment
grade
   
 
139,069
 
   
 
22,700
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
161,769
 
     147,713       15,078       –       162,791  
Watchlist
   
 
123
 
   
 
21,466
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
21,589
 
     238       22,535       –       22,773  
Impaired
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
5,561
 
   
 
5,561
 
     –       –       4,609       4,609  
Gross business and government
   
 
327,899
 
   
 
48,039
 
   
 
5,561
 
   
 
381,499
 
     339,693       41,050       4,609       385,352  
ACL
   
 
756
 
   
 
1,720
 
   
 
802
 
   
 
3,278
 
     743       1,507       475       2,725  
Carrying amount
   
 
327,143
 
   
 
46,319
 
   
 
4,759
 
   
 
378,221
 
     338,950       39,543       4,134       382,627  
Total gross loans and acceptances
   
 
599,114
 
   
 
76,717
 
   
 
7,091
 
   
 
682,922
 
     590,537       86,351       5,843       682,731  
Total net loans and acceptances
   
 
597,995
 
   
 
73,760
 
   
 
6,117
 
   
 
677,872
 
     589,394       83,791       5,190       678,375  
Commitments and financial guarantee contracts
                    
Acceptable
                    
Investment grade
   
 
202,913
 
   
 
1,544
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
204,457
 
     198,132       787       –       198,919  
Sub-investment
grade
   
 
65,393
 
   
 
13,733
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
79,126
 
     68,177       6,647       –       74,824  
Watchlist
   
 
6
 
   
 
9,086
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
9,092
 
     59       8,765       –       8,824  
Impaired
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,660
 
   
 
1,660
 
     –       –       1,373       1,373  
Gross commitments and financial guarantee contracts
   
 
268,312
 
   
 
24,363
 
   
 
1,660
 
   
 
294,335
 
     266,368       16,199       1,373       283,940  
ACL
   
 
256
 
   
 
377
 
   
 
56
 
   
 
689
 
     235       267       78       580  
Carrying amount
(7) (8)
   
$
268,056
 
   
$
23,986
 
   
$
1,604
 
   
$
293,646
     $ 266,133      $ 15,932      $ 1,295      $ 283,360   
 
  (1)
Includes PCI loans.
  (2)
94% of Stage 3 loans were either fully or partially collateralized as at October 31, 2025 (92% as at October 31, 2024).
  (3)
Includes $79 million ($163 million as at October 31, 2024) of residential mortgages and $13,231 million ($12,431 million as at October 31, 2024) of business and government loans that are classified and measured at FVTPL
,
and not subject to ECL.
  (4)
Includes purchased portfolios and certain cases where an internal risk rating is not assigned. Alternative credit risk assessments, rating methodologies, policies and tools are used to manage credit risk for these portfolios.
  (5)
Credit card loans are immediately written off when principal or interest payments are 180 days past due, and as a result are not reported as impaired in Stage 3.
  (6)
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances.
  (7)
Represents the total contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other
off-balance
sheet exposures, excluding personal lines of credit and credit cards, which are unconditionally cancellable at our discretion.
  (8)
Certain commercial borrower commitments are conditional and may include recourse to counterparties.
Schedule of Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses by Geographic Region
Loans and ACL by geographic region as at October 31, 2025 and 2024 are as follows:
 
(Canadian $ in millions)  
2025
     2024  
    
Gross
amount
    
ACL on
impaired loans 
(1)		    
ACL on
performing loans 
(2)		    
Net
amount
    
Gross
amount
     ACL on
impaired loans (1)		     ACL on
performing loans
 
(2)		    
Net
amount
  
By geographic region
(3)
                
Canada
  
$
398,001
 
  
$
663
 
  
$
1,842
 
  
$
395,496
 
   $ 392,398     $ 461     $ 1,531     $ 390,406  
United States
  
 
272,996
 
  
 
311
 
  
 
2,203
 
  
 
270,482
 
     277,718       192       2,141       275,385  
Other countries
  
 
11,214
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
31
 
  
 
11,183
 
     12,256       –       31       12,225  
Total
  
$
  682,211
 
  
$
         974
 
  
$
         4,076
 
  
$
  677,161
 
   $   682,372     $         653     $         3,703     $   678,016  
 
  (1)
Excludes ACL on impaired loans of $56 million for other credit instruments, which is included in other liabilities ($78 million as at October 31, 2024).
  (2)
Excludes ACL on performing loans of $633 million for other credit instruments, which is included in other liabilities ($502 million as at October 31, 2024).
  (3)
Geographic region is based upon the country of ultimate risk.
Schedule of Impaired Loans, Including the Related Allowances
Impaired (Stage 3) loans, including the related allowances, as at October 31, 2025 and 2024 are as follows:
 
(Canadian $ in millions)   
2025
      2024  
     
Gross impaired
amount
     
ACL on
impaired loans
 
(1)		     
Net impaired
amount
      Gross impaired
amount		      ACL on
impaired loans (1)		      Net impaired
amount		  
Residential mortgages
   
$
903
 
   
$
12
 
   
$
891
 
    $ 657      $ 10      $ 647  
Consumer instalment and other personal
   
 
627
 
   
 
160
 
   
 
467
 
      577        168        409  
Business and government
(2)
   
 
5,561
 
   
 
802
 
   
 
4,759
 
      4,609        475        4,134  
Total
   
$
    7,091
 
   
$
       974
 
   
$
     6,117
 
    $ 5,843      $ 653      $ 5,190  
By geographic region
(3)
                  
Canada
   
$
3,550
 
   
$
663
 
   
$
2,887
 
    $ 2,513      $ 461      $ 2,052  
United States
   
 
3,540
 
   
 
311
 
   
 
3,229
 
      3,327        192        3,135  
Other countries
   
 
1
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1
 
      3        –        3  
Total
   
$
    7,091
 
   
$
      974
 
   
$
   6,117
 
    $     5,843      $          653      $    5,190  
 
  (1)
Excludes ACL on impaired loans of $56 million for other credit instruments, which is included in other liabilities ($78 million as at October 31, 2024).
  (2)
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances.
  (3)
Geographic region is based upon the country of ultimate risk.
Disclosure Of Financial Assets That Are Past Due But Not Impaired The following table presents loans that are past due but not classified as impaired as at October 31, 2025
and 2024. Loans for which payment is less than 30 days past due have been excluded, as they are not generally representative of the borrowers’ ability to meet their payment obligations.
 
(Canadian $ in millions)
  
2025
 
 
2024
 
  
  
30 to 89 days
 
 
90 days or more 
(1)
 
  
Total
 
 
30 to 89 days
 
  
90 days or more (1)
 
  
Total
 
Residential mortgages
   
$
854
 
  
$
7
 
   
$
861
 
   $ 696      $ 15      $ 711  
Credit cards, consumer instalment and other personal
   
 
661
 
  
 
        171
 
   
 
832
 
     734        173        907  
Business and government
   
 
616
 
  
 
8
 
   
 
624
 
     689        16        705  
Total
   
$
    2,131
 
   
$
    186
 
   
$
    2,317
   
   $       2,119      $         204      $    2,323  
 
  (1)
Fully secured loans with amounts between 90 and 180 days past due that we have not classified as impaired totalled $7 million as at October 31, 2025 ($16 million as at October 31, 2024).
Summary of Key Economic Variables Used to Estimate Allowance on Performing Loans During Forecast Period
The
following
tables show the key economic variables used to estimate the allowance for performing loans forecast over the next 12 months or lifetime measurement period. The variables as at October 31, 2025 include the impact of tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on the economic outlook. While the values disclosed below are national variables, we use regional variables in the underlying models and consider factors impacting particular industries where appropriate.
 
  
  
As at October 31, 2025
 
  
  
Scenarios
 
All figures are average annual values
  
Upside
 
  
Base
 
  
Downside
 
  
Severe downside
 
  
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon 
(1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon 
(1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon 
(1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon 
(1)
 
Real GDP growth rates
(2)
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
  3.6%
 
  
 
  2.8%
 
  
 
  1.1% 
 
  
 
  2.1%
 
  
 
(2.7)%
 
  
 
1.6% 
 
  
 
(4.0)%
 
  
 
1.2% 
 
United States
  
 
4.5%
 
  
 
2.4%
 
  
 
1.7% 
 
  
 
1.8%
 
  
 
(2.3)%
 
  
 
1.4% 
 
  
 
(3.5)%
 
  
 
1.3% 
 
Corporate BBB
10-year
spread
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
1.2%
 
  
 
1.8%
 
  
 
1.7% 
 
  
 
2.0%
 
  
 
3.4% 
 
  
 
3.0% 
 
  
 
4.2% 
 
  
 
3.5% 
 
United States
  
 
0.8%
 
  
 
1.5%
 
  
 
1.5% 
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
3.5% 
 
  
 
3.0% 
 
  
 
4.6% 
 
  
 
3.6% 
 
Unemployment rates
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
6.0%
 
  
 
5.5%
 
  
 
7.1% 
 
  
 
6.4%
 
  
 
9.4% 
 
  
 
9.6% 
 
  
 
9.9% 
 
  
 
10.5% 
 
United States
  
 
3.6%
 
  
 
3.1%
 
  
 
4.5% 
 
  
 
4.4%
 
  
 
6.8% 
 
  
 
7.5% 
 
  
 
7.5% 
 
  
 
8.4% 
 
Housing Price Index
(2)
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
(3)
  
 
3.9%
 
  
 
5.8%
 
  
 
(0.4)%
 
  
 
3.4%
 
  
 
(10.5)%
 
  
 
(0.7)%
 
  
 
(19.4)%
 
  
 
(5.0)%
 
United States
(4)
  
 
3.7%
 
  
 
3.9%
 
  
 
0.7% 
 
  
 
2.4%
 
  
 
(11.6)%
 
  
 
(1.1)%
 
  
 
(20.0)%
 
  
 
(4.3)%
 
   
  
  
As at October 31, 2024
 
  
  
Scenarios
 
All figures are average annual values
  
Upside
 
  
Base
 
  
Downside
 
  
Severe downside
 
  
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
Real GDP growth rates
(2)
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
4.6%
 
  
 
2.6%
 
  
 
1.8% 
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
(2.3)%
 
  
 
1.3% 
 
  
 
(3.6)%
 
  
 
1.2% 
 
United States
  
 
4.3%
 
  
 
2.4%
 
  
 
1.9% 
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
(2.1)%
 
  
 
1.4% 
 
  
 
(3.4)%
 
  
 
1.3% 
 
Corporate BBB
10-year
spread
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
1.3%
 
  
 
1.8%
 
  
 
1.9% 
 
  
 
2.0%
 
  
 
3.6% 
 
  
 
3.0% 
 
  
 
4.2% 
 
  
 
3.5% 
 
United States
  
 
0.9%
 
  
 
1.6%
 
  
 
1.6% 
 
  
 
2.0%
 
  
 
3.4% 
 
  
 
3.1% 
 
  
 
4.6% 
 
  
 
3.6% 
 
Unemployment rates
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
  
 
5.3%
 
  
 
4.8%
 
  
 
7.0% 
 
  
 
6.8%
 
  
 
8.8% 
 
  
 
9.4% 
 
  
 
9.8% 
 
  
 
10.5% 
 
United States
  
 
3.4%
 
  
 
3.0%
 
  
 
4.7% 
 
  
 
4.4%
 
  
 
6.7% 
 
  
 
7.3% 
 
  
 
7.6% 
 
  
 
8.4% 
 
Housing Price Index
(2)
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
(3)
  
 
5.9%
 
  
 
5.4%
 
  
 
1.6% 
 
  
 
3.0%
 
  
 
(10.9)%
 
  
 
(1.0)%
 
  
 
(19.0)%
 
  
 
(5.0)%
 
United States
(4)
  
 
5.9%
 
  
 
4.0%
 
  
 
2.8% 
 
  
 
2.6%
 
  
 
(9.6)%
 
  
 
(1.0)%
 
  
 
(19.3)%
 
  
 
(4.3)%
 
 
 
(1)
The remaining forecast period is two years.
 
(2)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) and housing price index are averages of quarterly year-over-year growth rates.
 
(3)
In Canada, we use the Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite.
 
(4)
In the United States, we use the National Case-Shiller House Price Index.