
4
CQS NEW CITY HIGH YIELD FUND LIMITED
ANNUAL REPORT 30 JUNE 2023
Strategic Report
Investment Manager’s Review
Investment Manager’s Review
Introduction
All our previously expressed fears about higher inflation and
correspondingly higher interest rates came home to roost over the
course of our last financial year to 30 June 2023. For a high yielding bond
fund, higher interest rates are a mixed blessing. On one hand there are
more opportunities to find quality investments in stocks and sectors that
have previously been too difficult to invest in as yields have been lower.
This has helped the revenue account and we have covered the dividend
this year. On the other hand, higher rates put pressure on the operating
abilities of companies in the portfolio which can lead to problems. We
saw issues in the retail sector with our holding of Matalan Finance 9.5%
18-31/01/2024 and also in the banking sector where the troubles of
Credit Suisse affected the portfolio. More details of that are in the
portfolio review below. The Company raised new monies this year as we
issued shares at a premium.
Proceeds have been invested into a wide
range of sectors and the continuing diverse nature of the portfolio has
meant that the overall NAV total return for the 12 months to 30 June
2023 is a positive one at a modest 2.04%.
Market and economic review
When I wrote the market review for the interim report six months ago,
I noted that the period under review from 30 June 2022 to 31 December
2022 was one which most people would want to forget. The seemingly
unending litany of woe – weak markets, higher inflation, unstable
governments, crippling energy prices and rising interest rates were
but a few of the horror stories we saw during the late Summer and
Autumn of 2022. With a feeling of déjà vu, we have moved six months
further on and it feels hard to be more positive – interest rates have
continued to rise and are probably yet to peak in the UK, US and
Europe. Inflation in the UK is starting to come down with the last
reading at 6.80% but food price inflation remains stubbornly high. The
bright spot in the UK has been the service sector which has seen
consumer spending continue at elevated levels. Despite all the bad
news, we saw some signs of stabilisation towards the end of the year
and the forward-looking stock markets managed to eke out a positive
return for the six months.
The bond markets had a very volatile year. UK 10-year gilts reached a
15 year high at 4.5% at the end of September on the back of former
Prime Minister Liz Truss’s growth plan which proposed billions of
pounds in unfunded tax cuts, shooting up the country’s risk premium.
10-year gilt yields then fell back to 3.7% at the end of December 2022
but have risen over the last six months as stubbornly high inflation and
weak growth have worried international investors. At the time of
writing the UK 10 year gilt yield is at 4.44%. This is an important
measure for the bond market as companies wishing to raise money
have to reference the gilt yield which pushes their interest costs up.
In the US, the economy appears to be proving more resilient to the
effects of inflation. Nevertheless the US Federal Reserve has continued
to raise interest rates to try and tame inflation. Whether this policy will
work remains to be seen.
In Europe, interest rates have risen at a
slower pace as EU policy makers worry about anaemic job growth.
Portfolio and revenue review
During the period from June to December 2022, there were several
bonds called or repaid and we were able to invest the proceeds at
higher coupon rates than we have done previously. Good examples of
this would be the Barclays AT1 (Additional Tier 1 bond) 7.75% being
rolled over into an 8.75% coupon and the Shawbrook Group 7.785%
FRN (Floating Rate Note) being called and replaced with a 12.10%
coupon. We also took the opportunity in September when sterling was
weak to sell some of our US dollar denominated Bombardier 7.5%
2025 bonds and replaced them with more attractive UK and Euro
bonds. The Company still has a meaningful exposure to the US$ with
19.09% of the portfolio investment in that currency and a further
13.79% in the Euro and other currencies.
There were two major disappointments in the portfolio to report.
Firstly, Matalan Finance 9.5% 18-31/01/2024 underwent a refinancing
of its various bonds and equities in early 2023 and unfortunately our
position was reduced to zero. This reduced the NAV by 1.20%. Secondly,
we had a small position in Credit Suisse 31/12/2049 FRN AT1 which
was written to zero in March 2023 following a forced take-over of Credit
Suisse by Union Bank of Switzerland (“UBS”). This affected the NAV by
0.30% but the forced write-down to zero ahead of equity holders was
unprecedented and rocked the bond markets.
AT1 holdings are the
junior debt of banks and financial institutions and are normally ranked
higher than shareholder equity. The AT1 market is spooked at the
possibility of being ranked lower than equity and caused the bond
prices of these instruments to fall sharply. The Company’s portfolio is
exposed to around 18.00% in AT1 holdings in companies such as
Barclays and Deutsche Bank and on average the prices of those
securities have been marked down by between 5.00% and 10.50%. We
believe these positions to be robust and will recover and regulators in
the UK have taken pains to state that the situation that arose in
Switzerland with Credit Suisse would not occur here. We have added to
some of our investments at attractive prices.
New entries into the top 10 this year are Barclays Plc 22-15/12/2170
FRN in the global banking sector and Albion Financing 8.75% 21-
15/04/2027 which is the financing company for Aggreko, a global
provider of power and temperature control solutions.
For the year to 30 June 2023, the revenue account earnings were
4.51 pence compared to 4.16 pence for the same period last year.
Earnings per share have improved as we have invested at slightly
higher yields and received repayment of historic arrears from the REA
preference shares we hold. It is noticeable that as markets settle
around current levels, there are more opportunities to invest,
particularly as UK Gilt yields have elevated which pushes up the
coupons paid by companies when they issue debt instruments priced
at a margin over the relevant UK Gilt. In our regular discussions with
Shareholders, the revenue and dividends are topics of crucial
importance and the ability of any portfolio company to pay its coupon
or expected dividend is one of the major indicators we follow.
Outlook
The economic outlook for the UK will be affected by several factors in
the months ahead. These include any continued rise in interest rates,
how fast inflation continues to fall towards Government targets and
whether the UK falls back into recession. Another factor we look at is
the UK housing market, how resilient prices are over the next
12 months and whether the recent weakness is set to continue. Finally,
as we approach the end of 2024, the prospect of the general election
with a possible (at this time according to polls) change of Government
makes us look at how policies could change.
Globally, a lot will depend on the world’s two biggest economies, the
USA and China. The USA economy is moving along nicely but there will
be a lot of political factors to consider in the run up to the 2024
Presidential elections. The Chinese macro-economic picture looks
horrible with major weakness in the property sector which is 30% of
their GDP.
As regards markets affecting the Company, we believe that we are
nearing the top of the interest rate cycle and that we will see a recovery
in capital values of higher yielding bonds in the next year or so which
would positively impact the ability of companies to refinance debt. But
a word of caution: all of this can be affected by external influences.
Ian “Franco” Francis
New City Investment Managers
14 September 2023