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PORTFOLIO MANAGER’S REVIEW
intrinsic value. Our portfolio’s current P/E
ratio of 10.9x 2024 earnings may appear
conservative compared to the market’s
18x, but the quality of our businesses
remains underappreciated. Should
the market recognise this quality and
revalue our holdings, we’re positioned to
compound at even higher rates.
GCO embodies the qualities we prize
in our investments: a high-quality
business with sustainable growth, led by
a management team that’s both aligned
and accomplished. Yet, despite these
remarkable attributes, GCO remains
underappreciated, affording us the
opportunity to own it with a significant
margin of safety.
Let’s delve into the pillars of our
investment thesis:
Quality: With a rich 160-year history,
GCO stands as a stalwart in the insurance
industry, offering credit insurance
alongside traditional homeowner and
auto coverage. Despite the perceived risk
in credit insurance, GCO’s disciplined
underwriting practices and the market’s
oligopolistic nature have ensured
consistent profitability and high margins.
Growth: Over the past two decades, GCO
has delivered impressive growth, boasting
a 15.6% CAGR in book value per share, far
outpacing global peers. With a promising
outlook for continued growth, fuelled by
its excess capital of €1.3 bn for strategic
acquisitions, GCO is primed to sustain its
trajectory of double-digit growth in book
value and EPS.
Management: The Serra family’s majority
ownership spanning over 75 years
underscores their prudent stewardship
of GCO. Their conservative management
style, characterised by a long-term
horizon and strategic capital allocation,
resonates with our investment philosophy.
Instead of chasing short-term gains,
they prioritise value creation through
counter-cyclical capital deployment and
astute acquisitions.
Valuation: Despite its sterling
fundamentals, GCO’s valuation remains
compelling. While our initial investment in
2020 was made at 9.5x P/E and 0.8x book
value, GCO’s current trading multiples of
7x P/E and 0.8x book represent an even
wider discount to historical and peer
averages. The valuation remaining low has
worked to our advantage as we were able
to add to our holding at attractive prices.
Despite the stubbornly low valuation
the shares have returned 80% since our
investment, as GCO has produced robust
earnings growth and dividends. We
estimate the business’s intrinsic value at
€54 per share today, with the potential
to reach €92 in the next 4-5 years if they
maintain their low teens ROE, offering
us an enhanced margin of safety at the
current price of €35.
In summary, GCO epitomises the type
of investment opportunity we actively
seek—combining quality, growth, sound
management and attractive valuation—a
recipe for sustainable long-term
value creation.
Overall, we remain optimistic about the
future prospects of our portfolio and are
excited about the opportunities that lie
ahead. We look forward to continuing our
journey of delivering strong returns for our
investors, while carefully managing risk
and maintaining our focus on long-term
value creation.
During the year as well as initiating a
position in Eurowag, we added to our
positions in Bergman & Beving, Subsea
7, Interactive Brokers, GCO, Glencore
and CTT, reduced our positions in
EXOR, CK Hutchison and Arch and
sold our positions in ViaSat, CVS and
Dollar General.
Ocean Wilsons Holdings
As the largest integrated provider of
port and maritime logistics in Brazil, the
Ocean Wilsons subsidiary, Wilson Sons,
has a strong competitive position. It is
the leading provider of towage services
in Brazil with the largest and most
modern fleet, as well as operating major
container terminals in the north and
south of the country: Salvador and Rio
Grande. The company is benefiting from
the continuing recovery in global trade,
as well as a rebounding demand for its
offshore energy-linked services, which
should provide the basis for improved
performance of the firm’s assets.
Wilson Sons operational results have
shown strong growth across the business
during 2023 and the fourth quarter results
(released in March 2024) reflected this.
There was strong revenue growth over
the course of the year (10.6% higher than
the prior year), driven by excellent towage
results, operational growth in container
terminals and a strong recovery in offshore
energy-linked services. Results in the
towage division were particularly strong,
with higher volumes and an increase in
average revenue per manoeuvre, combined
with the launch of two new tugboats.
In the container terminal division,
operational growth has been mainly driven
by a surge in volume at the Rio Grande
terminal (+21.9%). The number of vessel
turnarounds in the offshore support bases
were 37.6% higher than the previous year,
thanks to markedly higher demand for the
company’s offshore energy-linked services.
The investment portfolio shares many
characteristics with the portfolio held
directly within Hansa Investment
Company, with a preference for funds
with clearly defined strategies run by
managers with skin in the game. The
portfolio delivered a return of 10.1% for
the 2023 calendar year, with particularly
strong performance coming from its core
regional exposures later in the year. The
most recent valuation for the investment
portfolio was $310.9m as at the end of
December 2023. Performance has been
helped by thematic exposures to the
technology and insurance sectors. Several
of the technology holdings have benefited
significantly from the surge in investor
interest in AI, while the insurance industry
has seen elevated pricing continue into
2024. Some of the largest private equity
positions include venture capital funds
of funds managed by Stepstone, US
buyout and growth funds managed by
KKR and TA Associates and a financials-
focused fund managed by Reverence
Capital. Dividends totalling $9.1m, in four
tranches, were paid to the parent company
from the portfolio throughout the year.
The board of Ocean Wilsons Holdings has
proposed increasing the annual dividend
payment to shareholders from 70p to 85p
per share from 14 June 2024.
Following its 12 June 2023 announcement
regarding the strategic review of the
OWHL’s investment in Wilson Sons, the
board of OWHL updated investors on 15
November 2023 to state they have engaged
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. as an advisor. The
board also confirmed they have received
a number of indicative non-binding offers.
The board has previously stated that the
review will consider all potential strategic
options and there can be no certainty as to
its outcome. We will report on any further
developments as they are made known.
Alec Letchfield
Chief Investment Officer
March 2024