Strategic ReportAnnual Report 2022
Investment Manager’s Report (continued)
1
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/03/09/
na031021-vietnam-successfully-navigating-the-pandemic.
2
Source: https://vietnamtourism.gov.vn/en/post/17504
3
Source: https://www.economist.com/emerging-market-
indicators/2004/02/12/country-risk
Outlook
As we move into the second half of 2022, the global mood
remains weak. Although recessionary risks remain less
severe for Asia than the West, a global recession would hit
Vietnam’s export growth in 2023 and we will be watching
the implications closely, including how policy directions
and actions unfold. Trade is key to Vietnam’s economy,
especially given its more prominent place on the global
supply chain map – the country posted a trade surplus
of over USD 700m in the rst six months of 2022. A
global recession would not only weigh in on the country’s
impressive exports and production growth but could
also impact its banking sector. On the positive front, the
domestic economy may benet from an increased amount
of government spending on infrastructure, which has
been under-budget in the rst half of 2022. Infrastructure
expenditure has a multiplier eect on economic growth,
including accelerating the pace of urbanisation, and
leading to a growth in real-estate development and the
growth in modern trade. Agile policy making will be as
important as ever. As the IMF recently reported
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Vietnam’s
handling of the pandemic and associated risks helped the
country get through the last two years, particularly its
remarkable vaccination rollout, so with rising retail sales,
improving industrial production, and increasing foreign
investment, there’s a lot to consider when it comes to
Vietnam’s monetary policy and economic growth as the
world evolves.
There are encouraging signs in the rebound and growth of
domestic tourism in Vietnam, with 60 million trips made
in the rst half of 2022, 40% higher than the number
made pre-pandemic
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. In May the remaining restrictions
and protocols put in place because of COVID-19 were
lifted, and international visitors started to return. As the
Chairman mentioned in his Statement, the Board of the
Company were able to visit the team in Vietnam in June
and see the post-COVID-19 recovery for themselves.
North Asia has historically been a key source of
international tourism for Vietnam, and many of those
countries are still imposing restrictions on travel for their
residents, particularly China, Taiwan, and Japan. We
expect people in the region would like their travel habits to
normalise, though increased costs of international ights,
disruptions at airports, and rapid growth in demand will
bring about their own issues on the industry.
Many emerging and frontier markets are facing extremely
testing times, mostly because of imported ination and
supply chain disruptions. This can ow into the lives of
populations in other ways as unrest forces changes in
governments, although developing countries do not have
a monopoly on this behaviour.
The Economist
3
listed the
countries that are most at risk, and Vietnam was not
among them. Vietnam is still growing at high levels –
back on its 30-year trend of 6.5 to 7% GDP growth. While
ination will increase, the forecast levels of approximately
4% do not look likely to cause nancial distress.
The war in Ukraine has obviously had a horric direct
impact in the lives of millions of its citizens through
loss of life, loss of home and livelihood. The shadows
of war have stretched further as the loss of Ukraine’s
grains and fertiliser exports stress global food supply,
and curtailment of Russian gas could threaten Europe’s
energy security, particularly once the 40-degree Celsius
summer fades into memory. One consequence of this is
the possibility that European countries will reduce their
energy consumption, leading perhaps to a change in
consumer and industrial demand and possibly favouring
importing nished products with cheaper overseas energy
cost ‘baked-in’ rather than intermediate goods that need
energy-intensive processing. Another consequence is that
countries, such as Germany that have typically favoured
renewable energy sources, will be forced to turn on more
coal red power stations. This will add fossil-fuel to the
re smouldering in some people’s minds that COP-26’s
pledges of ‘Net-Zero by 2050’ were unrealistic.
There is also an undercurrent of backlash against the
emergence of ESG themed investments and sustainability-
linked investment policies. This began as some concerns
were raised on ‘Green-Washing’ by certain global asset
managers but may also have found resonance with certain
industry leaders who question whether a CEO should ‘play
God’ in relation to moral and ethical considerations related
to nance. There is a danger that the baby is thrown out
with the bathwater, even at such an early stage of greater
awareness of ESG, and particularly the climate aspects, as
parts of the world face unprecedented and dangerously
high daily temperatures. The Investment Manager is of
the opinion that responsible investing matters even more
during these times of global uncertainty. The Company
has been a signatory to the United Nations Principles for
Responsible Investing for over 12 years, three quarters of
its life so far, and has set itself the task of ‘Doing More,
Measuring More and Reporting More’ on ESG issues. In 2021
the Fund’s Board pledged its own allegiance to the Paris
Agreement and commitment to the TCFD in addition to
becoming a member of the Asia Investor Group for Climate
Change (“AIGCC”). The portfolio’s carbon footprint is also
60% lower than the VNAS index. This has been a result of
the Fund’s active management style in sector allocation
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