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Risk Categories | 12 Months Ended
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Dec. 31, 2018
Financial Instruments [Abstract] |
Risk Categories | Risk Categories
| The shaded text and tables in the following section of this MD&A represent our disclosure on credit, market and liquidity risks in accordance with IFRS 7 Financial Instruments - Disclosures and includes a discussion on how we measure risk and our objectives, policies and methodologies for managing these risks. The shaded text and tables represent an integral part of our audited annual Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2018. The shading in this section does not imply that these disclosures are of any greater importance than non-shaded tables and text, and the Risk Management disclosure should be read in
| its entirety. | This information should be considered carefully together with other information in this MD&A and in our 2018 AIF, our 2018
| Consolidated Financial Statements and other reports and materials that we file with securities regulators.
| In this section, segregated funds include segregated fund guarantees, variable annuities and investment products, and includes Run-off reinsurance in our Corporate business segment.
| We rate fixed income investments primarily through the use of internally developed scorecards which combine an estimated probability of default and loss given default to determine an expected loss and credit risk rating. This rating is expressed using a 22-point scale that is generally consistent with those used by external rating agencies, and is based on detailed examination of the borrower’s, or issuer’s, credit quality and the characteristics of the specific instrument. The probability of default assessment is based on borrower-level or issuer-level analysis, which encompasses an assessment of industry risk, business strategy, competitiveness, strength of management and other financial information. The loss given default assessment is based on instrument-level analysis, which considers the impact of guarantees, covenants, liquidity and other structural features. These scorecards provide input to stochastic value-at-risk models and are used to stress test the portfolio, which provide insight into the distribution and characteristics of credit risk within our portfolios. In accordance with our policies and under normal circumstances, our ratings cannot be higher than the highest rating provided by certain Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations ("NRSROs"). Certain assets, including those in our sovereign debt and asset-backed securities portfolios, are assigned a rating based on ratings provided by NRSROs using a priority sequence order of Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch and DBRS Limited.
| Interest Rate and Spread Risk
| Interest rate and spread risk is the potential for financial loss arising from changes or volatility in interest rates or spreads when asset cash flows and the policy obligations they support are not matched. This may result in the need to either sell assets to meet policy payments and expenses or reinvest excess asset cash flows in unfavourable interest rate or spread environments. The impact of changes or volatility in interest rates or spreads is reflected in the valuation of our financial assets and liabilities for insurance contracts.
| Our primary exposure to interest rate and spread risk arises from certain general account products and segregated fund contracts which contain investment guarantees in the form of minimum crediting rates, guaranteed premium rates, settlement options and benefit guarantees. If investment returns fall below guaranteed levels, we may be required to increase liabilities or capital in respect of these contracts. The guarantees attached to these products may be applicable to both past premiums collected and future premiums not yet received. Segregated fund contracts provide benefit guarantees that are linked to underlying fund performance and may be triggered upon death, maturity, withdrawal or annuitization. These products are included in our asset-liability management program and the residual interest rate exposure is managed within our risk appetite limits.
| Declines in interest rates or narrowing spreads can result in compression of the net spread between interest earned on investments and interest credited to policyholders. Declines in interest rates or narrowing spreads may also result in increased asset calls, mortgage prepayments and net reinvestment of positive cash flows at lower yields, and therefore adversely impact our profitability and financial position. Negative interest rates may additionally result in losses on our cash deposits and low or negative returns on our fixed income assets impacting our profitability. In contrast, increases in interest rates or a widening of spreads may have a material impact on the value of fixed income assets, resulting in depressed market values, and may lead to lower LICAT ratios or losses in the event of the liquidation of assets prior to maturity.
| Significant changes or volatility in interest rates or spreads could have a negative impact on sales of certain insurance and annuity products, and adversely impact the expected pattern of redemptions (surrenders) on existing policies. Increases in interest rates or widening spreads may increase the risk that policyholders will surrender their contracts, potentially forcing us to liquidate assets at a loss and accelerate recognition of certain acquisition expenses. While we have established hedging programs in place and our insurance and annuity products often contain surrender mitigation features, these may not be sufficient to fully offset the adverse impact of the underlying losses.
| We also have direct exposure to interest rates and spreads from investments supporting other general account liabilities, surplus and employee benefit plans. Lower interest rates or a narrowing of spreads will result in reduced investment income on new fixed income asset purchases. Conversely, higher interest rates or wider spreads will reduce the value of our existing assets. These exposures fall within our risk-taking philosophy and appetite and are therefore generally not hedged.
| Market Risk Sensitivities
| We utilize a variety of methods and measures to quantify our market risk exposures. These include duration management, key rate duration techniques, convexity measures, cash flow gap analysis, scenario testing, and sensitivity testing of earnings and regulatory capital ratios versus risk appetite limits.
| Our net income(1) is affected by the determination of policyholder obligations under our annuity and insurance contracts. These amounts are determined using internal valuation models and are recorded in our Annual Consolidated Financial Statements, primarily as Insurance contract liabilities. The determination of these obligations requires management to make assumptions about the future level of equity market performance, interest rates, credit and swap spreads and other factors over the life of our products. Differences between our actual experience and our best estimate assumptions are reflected in our Annual Consolidated Financial Statements. Refer to Additional Cautionary Language and Key Assumptions Related to Sensitivities in this section for important additional information regarding these estimates.
Equity Market Sensitivities
As at December 31, 2018 ($ millions, unless otherwise noted)
Change in Equity Markets(1) | 25% decrease |  |  | 10% decrease |  |  | 10% increase |  |  | 25% increase |
Potential impact on net income(2)(3) | $ | (300 | ) |  | $ | (100 | ) |  | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 250 |
Potential impact on OCI(3) | $ | (100 | ) |  | $ | (50 | ) |  | $ | 50 |  |  | $ | 100 |
As at December 31, 2017 ($ millions, unless otherwise noted) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Change in Equity Markets(1) | 25% decrease |  |  | 10% decrease |  |  | 10% increase |  |  | 25% increase |
Potential impact on net income(2)(3) | $ | (300 | ) |  | $ | (100 | ) |  | $ | 100 |  |  | $ | 300 |
Potential impact on OCI(3) | $ | (200 | ) |  | $ | (50 | ) |  | $ | 50 |  |  | $ | 200 |
(1) Represents the respective change across all equity markets as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017. Assumes that actual equity exposures consistently and precisely track the broader equity markets. Since in actual practice equity-related exposures generally differ from broad market indices (due to the impact of active management, basis risk, and other factors), realized sensitivities may differ significantly from those illustrated above. Sensitivities include the impact of re-balancing equity hedges for dynamic hedging programs at 2% intervals (for 10% changes in equity markets) and at 5% intervals (for 25% changes in equity markets).
(2) The market risk sensitivities include the estimated mitigation impact of our hedging programs in effect as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, and include new business added and product changes implemented prior to such dates.
(3) Net income and OCI sensitivities have been rounded to the nearest $50 million. The sensitivities exclude the market impacts on the income from our joint ventures and associates, which we account for on an equity basis.
($ millions, unless otherwise noted) | As at December 31, 2018 |  |  | As at December 31, 2017 |
Change in Interest Rates(1) | 50 basis point decrease |  |  | 50 basis point increase |  |  | 50 basis point decrease |  |  | 50 basis point increase |
Potential impact on net income(2)(3)(4) | $ | (100 | ) |  | $ | 50 |  |  | $ | (100 | ) |  | $ | 50 |
Potential impact on OCI(3) | $ | 250 |  |  | $ | (250 | ) |  | $ | 250 |  |  | $ | (250 | )
(1) Interest rate sensitivities assume a parallel shift in assumed interest rates across the entire yield curve as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017 with no change to the Actuarial Standards Board ("ASB") promulgated Ultimate Reinvestment Rate ("URR"). Variations in realized yields based on factors such as different terms to maturity and geographies may result in realized sensitivities being significantly different from those illustrated above. Sensitivities include the impact of re-balancing interest rate hedges for dynamic hedging programs at 10 basis point intervals (for 50 basis point changes in interest rates).
(2) The market risk sensitivities include the estimated mitigation impact of our hedging programs in effect as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, and include new business added and product changes implemented prior to such dates.
(3) Net income and OCI sensitivities have been rounded to the nearest $50 million. The sensitivities exclude the market impacts on the income from our joint ventures and associates, which we account for on an equity basis.
(4) The majority of interest rate sensitivity, after hedging, is attributed to individual insurance products. We also have interest rate sensitivity, after hedging, from our fixed annuity and segregated funds products.
| The above sensitivities were determined using a 50 basis point change in interest rates and a 10% change in our equity markets because we believe that these market shocks were reasonably possible as at December 31, 2018. We have also disclosed the impact of a 25% change in equity markets to illustrate that significant changes in equity market levels may result in other than proportionate impacts on our sensitivities.
| Credit Spread and Swap Spread Sensitivities
| We have estimated the immediate impact or sensitivity of our net income attributable to certain instantaneous changes in credit and swap spreads. The credit spread sensitivities reflect the impact of changes in credit spreads on our asset and liability valuations (including non-sovereign fixed income assets, provincial governments, corporate bonds, and other fixed income assets). The swap spread sensitivities reflect the impact of changes in swap spreads on swap-based derivative positions and liability valuations.
($ millions, unless otherwise noted) | Credit Spread Sensitivities(1) | Swap Spread Sensitivities
Net income sensitivity(2) | 50 basis point decrease |  | 50 basis point increase |  | 20 basis point decrease |  | 20 basis point increase |
December 31, 2018 | $ | (75 | ) | $ | 75 |  | $ | 25 |  | $ | (25 | )
December 31, 2017 | $ | (100 | ) | $ | 100 |  | $ | 25 |  | $ | (25 | )
(1) In most instances, credit spreads are assumed to revert to long-term insurance contract liability assumptions generally over a five-year period. (2) Sensitivities have been rounded to the nearest $25 million.
| The credit and swap spread sensitivities assume a parallel shift in the indicated spreads across the entire term structure. Variations in realized spread changes based on different terms to maturity, geographies, asset classes and derivative types, underlying interest rate movements, and ratings may result in realized sensitivities being significantly different from those provided above. The credit spread sensitivity estimates exclude any credit spread impact that may arise in connection with asset positions held in segregated funds. Spread sensitivities are provided for the consolidated entity and may not be proportional across all reporting segments. Refer to Additional Cautionary Language and Key Assumptions Related to Sensitivities in this section for important additional information regarding these estimates.
Market Risk Management Strategies
| We have implemented asset-liability management and hedging programs involving regular monitoring and adjustment of market risk exposures using assets, derivative instruments and repurchase agreements to maintain market risk exposures within our risk appetite. The general availability and cost of these hedging instruments may be adversely impacted by a number of factors including changes in interest rates, increased volatility in capital markets, and changes in the general market and regulatory environment within which these hedging programs operate. In particular, regulations for over-the-counter derivatives could impose additional costs and could affect our hedging strategy. In addition, these programs may themselves expose us to other risks.
| Foreign Currency Risk
| Foreign currency risk is the result of mismatches in the currency of our assets and liabilities (inclusive of capital), and cash flows. This risk may arise from a variety of sources such as foreign currency transactions and services, foreign currency hedging, investments denominated in foreign currencies, investments in foreign subsidiaries and net income from foreign operations. Changes or volatility in foreign exchange rates could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
| As an international provider of financial services, we operate in a number of countries, with revenues and expenses denominated in several local currencies. In each country in which we operate, we generally maintain the currency profile of assets to match the currency of aggregate liabilities and required surplus. This approach provides an operational hedge against disruptions in local operations caused by currency fluctuations. Foreign currency derivative contracts such as currency swaps and forwards are used as a risk management tool to manage the currency exposure in accordance with our Asset Liability Management Policy. As at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, the Company did not have a material foreign currency risk exposure on a functional currency basis.
| Changes in exchange rates can affect our net income and surplus when financial results in functional currencies are translated into Canadian dollars. Net income earned outside of Canada is generally not currency hedged and a weakening in the local currency of our foreign operations relative to the Canadian dollar can have a negative impact on our net income reported in Canadian currency. A strengthening in the local currency of our foreign operations relative to the Canadian dollar would have the opposite effect. Regulatory capital ratios could also be impacted by changes in exchange rates.
| Additional Cautionary Language and Key Assumptions Related to Sensitivities
| Our market risk sensitivities are measures of our estimated change in net income and OCI for changes in interest rates and equity market price levels described above, based on interest rates, equity market prices and business mix in place as at the respective calculation dates. These sensitivities are calculated independently for each risk factor, generally assuming that all other risk variables stay constant. The sensitivities do not take into account indirect effects such as potential impacts on goodwill impairment or valuation allowances on deferred tax assets. The sensitivities are provided for the consolidated entity and may not be proportional across all reporting segments. Actual results can differ materially from these estimates for a variety of reasons, including differences in the pattern or distribution of the market shocks, the interaction between these risk factors, model error, or changes in other assumptions such as business mix, effective tax rates, policyholder behaviour, currency exchange rates and other market variables relative to those underlying the calculation of these sensitivities. The extent to which actual results may differ from the indicative ranges will generally increase with larger capital market movements. Our sensitivities as at December 31, 2017 have been included for comparative purposes only.
The sensitivities reflect the composition of our assets and liabilities as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively. Changes in these positions due to new sales or maturities, asset purchases/sales, or other management actions could result in material changes to these reported sensitivities. In particular, these sensitivities reflect the expected impact of hedging activities based on the hedge programs in place as at the December 31 calculation dates. The actual impact of hedging activity can differ materially from that assumed in the determination of these indicative sensitivities due to ongoing hedge re-balancing activities, changes in the scale or scope of hedging activities, changes in the cost or general availability of hedging instruments, basis risk (i.e., the risk that hedges do not exactly replicate the underlying portfolio experience), model risk, and other operational risks in the ongoing management of the hedge programs or the potential failure of hedge counterparties to perform in accordance with expectations.
The sensitivities are based on methods and assumptions in effect as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, as applicable. Changes in the regulatory environment, accounting or actuarial valuation methods, models, or assumptions (including changes to the ASB promulgated URR) after those dates could result in material changes to these reported sensitivities. Changes in interest rates and equity market prices in excess of the ranges illustrated may result in other than proportionate impacts.
Our hedging programs may themselves expose us to other risks, including basis risk (i.e., the risk that hedges do not exactly replicate the underlying portfolio experience), volatility risk, derivative counterparty credit risk, and increased levels of liquidity risk, model risk and other operational risks. These factors may adversely impact the net effectiveness, costs, and financial viability of maintaining these hedging programs and therefore adversely impact our profitability and financial position. While our hedging programs are intended to mitigate these effects (e.g., hedge counterparty credit risk is managed by maintaining broad diversification, dealing primarily with highly rated counterparties, and transacting through over-the-counter contracts cleared through central clearing houses, exchange-traded contracts or bilateral over-the-counter contracts negotiated directly between counterparties that include credit support annexes), residual risk, potential reported earnings and capital volatility remain.
For the reasons outlined above, our sensitivities should only be viewed as directional estimates of the underlying sensitivities of each factor under these specialized assumptions, and should not be viewed as predictors of our future net income, OCI, and capital. Given the nature of these calculations, we cannot provide assurance that actual impact will be consistent with the estimates provided.
The following table summarizes the contractual maturities of our significant financial liabilities and contractual commitments as at December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017:
Financial Liabilities and Contractual Obligations
December 31, 2018 ($ millions) | Within 1 year |  | 1 year to 3 years |  | 3 years to 5 years |  | Over 5 years |  | Total |
Insurance and investment contract liabilities(1) | $ | 11,950 |  | $ | 8,388 |  | $ | 8,653 |  | $ | 264,246 |  | $ | 293,237 |
Senior debentures and unsecured financing(2) | 438 |  | 556 |  | 234 |  | 4,880 |  | 6,108 |
Subordinated debt(2) | 103 |  | 207 |  | 207 |  | 3,724 |  | 4,241 |
Bond repurchase agreements | 1,824 |  | — |  | — |  | — |  | 1,824 |
Accounts payable and accrued expenses | 5,971 |  | — |  | — |  | — |  | 5,971 |
Secured borrowings from mortgage securitization | 182 |  | 435 |  | 187 |  | 817 |  | 1,621 |
Borrowed funds(2) | 55 |  | 49 |  | 45 |  | 68 |  | 217 |
Total liabilities | $ | 20,523 |  | $ | 9,635 |  | $ | 9,326 |  | $ | 273,735 |  | $ | 313,219 |
Contractual commitments(3) |  |  |  |  |
Contractual loans, equities and mortgages | $ | 1,157 |  | $ | 1,044 |  | $ | 536 |  | $ | 1,063 |  | $ | 3,800 |
Operating leases | 138 |  | 230 |  | 182 |  | 506 |  | 1,056 |
Total contractual commitments | $ | 1,295 |  | $ | 1,274 |  | $ | 718 |  | $ | 1,569 |  | $ | 4,856 |
December 31, 2017 ($ millions) | Within 1 year |  | 1 year to 3 years |  | 3 years to 5 years |  | Over 5 years |  | Total |
Insurance and investment contract liabilities(1) | $ | 10,242 |  | $ | 7,552 |  | $ | 7,729 |  | $ | 242,181 |  | $ | 267,704 |
Senior debentures and unsecured financing(2) | 120 |  | 516 |  | 489 |  | 4,393 |  | 5,518 |
Subordinated debt(2) | 126 |  | 251 |  | 251 |  | 4,229 |  | 4,857 |
Bond repurchase agreements | 1,976 |  | — |  | — |  | — |  | 1,976 |
Accounts payable and accrued expenses | 5,814 |  | — |  | — |  | — |  | 5,814 |
Secured borrowings from mortgage securitization | 81 |  | 333 |  | 398 |  | 701 |  | 1,513 |
Borrowed funds(2) | 80 |  | 52 |  | 49 |  | 83 |  | 264 |
Total liabilities | $ | 18,439 |  | $ | 8,704 |  | $ | 8,916 |  | $ | 251,587 |  | $ | 287,646 |
Contractual commitments(3) |  |  |  |  |
Contractual loans, equities and mortgages | $ | 1,138 |  | $ | 820 |  | $ | 214 |  | $ | 761 |  | $ | 2,933 |
Operating leases | 116 |  | 207 |  | 148 |  | 452 |  | 923 |
Total contractual commitments | $ | 1,254 |  | $ | 1,027 |  | $ | 362 |  | $ | 1,213 |  | $ | 3,856 |
(1) These amounts represent the undiscounted estimated cash flows of insurance and investment contract liabilities on our Consolidated Statements of Financial Position. These cash flows include estimates related to the timing and payment of death and disability claims, policy surrenders, policy maturities, annuity payments, minimum guarantees on segregated fund products, policyholder dividends, amounts on deposit, commissions and premium taxes offset by contractual future premiums and fees on in-force contracts. These estimated cash flows are based on the best estimated assumptions used in the determination of insurance and investment contract liabilities. Due to the use of assumptions, actual cash flows will differ from these estimates.
(2) Payments due based on maturity dates and include expected interest payments. Actual redemption of certain securities may occur sooner as some include an option for the issuer to call the security at par at an earlier date.
(3) Contractual commitments and operating lease commitments are not reported on our Consolidated Financial Statements. Additional information on these commitments is included in Note 23 of our 2018 Annual Consolidated Financial Statements.
Additional information on liquidity risk can be found in Note 6 to our 2018 Annual Consolidated Financial Statements and the Risk Factors section in the AIF.

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