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Unpaid losses and loss expenses

6 Months Ended

Jun. 30, 2021

Liability for Claims and Claims Adjustment Expense [Abstract]

Liability for Future Policy Benefits and Unpaid Claims Disclosure [Text Block]

Unpaid losses and loss expenses

The following table presents a reconciliation of beginning and ending Unpaid losses and loss expenses:


	Six Months Ended
	June 30
(in millions of U.S. dollars)	2021		2020
Gross unpaid losses and loss expenses – beginning of period	$	67,811	$	62,690
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses – beginning of period (1)	(14,647)		(14,181)
Net unpaid losses and loss expenses – beginning of period	53,164		48,509


Net losses and loss expenses incurred in respect of losses occurring in:
Current year	10,546		11,111
Prior years (2)	(487)		(49)
Total	10,059		11,062
Net losses and loss expenses paid in respect of losses occurring in:
Current year	2,355		2,263
Prior years	5,531		5,842
Total	7,886		8,105
Foreign currency revaluation and other	231		(128)
Net unpaid losses and loss expenses – end of period	55,568		51,338
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses (1)	14,721		14,361
Gross unpaid losses and loss expenses – end of period	$	70,289	$	65,699

(1) Net of valuation allowance for uncollectible reinsurance.

(2) Relates to prior period loss reserve development only and excludes prior period development related to reinstatement premiums, expense adjustments and earned premiums totaling $27 million and $6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2021 and 2020, respectively.

Gross and net unpaid losses and loss expenses increased $2,478 million and $2,404 million, respectively, for the six months ended June 30, 2021, reflecting an increase in underlying exposure due to premium growth partially offset by favorable prior period development.

Prior Period Development

Prior period development (PPD) arises from changes to loss estimates recognized in the current year that relate to loss events that occurred in previous calendar years and excludes the effect of losses from the development of earned premium from previous accident years. Long-tail lines include lines such as workers' compensation, general liability, and professional liability; while short-tail lines include lines such as most property lines, energy, personal accident, and agriculture.

The following table summarizes (favorable) and adverse PPD by segment.


	Three Months Ended June 30						Six Months Ended June 30
(in millions of U.S. dollars)	Long-tail		Short-tail		Total		Long-tail		Short-tail		Total
2021
North America Commercial P&C Insurance	$	(96)	$	(60)	$	(156)	$	(142)	$	(141)	$	(283)
North America Personal P&C Insurance	—		(44)		(44)		—		(84)		(84)
North America Agricultural Insurance	—		—		—		—		(2)		(2)
Overseas General Insurance	5		(161)		(156)		5		(186)		(181)
Global Reinsurance	(22)		22		—		(22)		15		(7)
Corporate	88		—		88		97		—		97
Total	$	(25)	$	(243)	$	(268)	$	(62)	$	(398)	$	(460)
2020
North America Commercial P&C Insurance	$	(141)	$	(5)	$	(146)	$	(184)	$	(67)	$	(251)
North America Personal P&C Insurance	—		(1)		(1)		—		—		—
North America Agricultural Insurance	—		—		—		—		(14)		(14)
Overseas General Insurance	(1)		(35)		(36)		(1)		(39)		(40)
Global Reinsurance	(19)		3		(16)		(19)		(4)		(23)
Corporate	274		—		274		285		—		285
Total	$	113	$	(38)	$	75	$	81	$	(124)	$	(43)

Significant prior period movements by segment, principally driven by reserve reviews completed during each respective period, are discussed in more detail below. The remaining net development for long-tail lines and short-tail business for each segment and Corporate comprises numerous favorable and adverse movements across a number of lines and accident years, none of which is significant individually or in the aggregate.

North America Commercial P&C Insurance

2021

For the three months ended June 30, 2021, net favorable PPD was $156 million, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, and was driven by the following principal changes:

•Net favorable development of $96 million in long-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $137 million in our workers’ compensation lines. This included favorable development of $36 million related to our annual assessment of multi-claimant events including industrial accidents, in the 2020 accident year. Consistent with prior years, we reviewed these potential exposures after the close of the accident year to allow for late reporting or identification of significant losses. The remaining overall favorable development was mainly in accident years 2016 and prior, driven by lower than expected loss experience and related updates to loss development factors;

•Net favorable development of $45 million in general liability portfolios, driven by lower than expected paid and reported case incurred activity in accident years 2017 and prior, partly offset by higher than expected reported case incurred activity in accident years 2018 and 2019;

•Net adverse development of $76 million in commercial automobile liability, driven by adverse reported loss experience, mainly impacting accident years 2017 and 2019; and

•Net adverse development of $27 million in high deductible general liability coverages, driven by higher than expected loss severities, mainly impacting accident years 2016 through 2020, partly offset by favorable loss development in older accident years.

•Net favorable development of $60 million in short-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $41 million in surety, $35 million of which was due to lower than expected COVID-19 claim activity in accident year 2020; and

•The remaining favorable development is predominantly driven by automobile, which experienced lower than expected claim development related to physical damage coverages in the 2020 accident year.

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, net favorable PPD was $283 million, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, and was driven by the following principal changes:

•Net favorable development of $142 million in long-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $158 million in workers’ compensation lines, mainly due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2021, as described above;

•Net favorable development of $51 million in professional liability (errors & omissions and cyber), driven by accident years 2016 and 2017, from lower than expected emergence, partly offset by higher than expected development in accident year 2019;

•Net favorable development of $40 million in voluntary environmental lines, driven by accident years 2017 and prior, from lower than expected emergence, partly offset by higher than expected development in accident year 2019;

•Net favorable development of $37 million in general liability portfolios, driven by lower than expected paid and reported case incurred activity in accident years 2017 and prior, partly offset by higher than expected reported case incurred activity in accident years 2018 and 2019;

•Net adverse development of $26 million in high deductible general liability coverages, as described above;

•Net adverse development of $43 million in excess and umbrella portfolios, with accident years 2016 through 2019 experiencing higher than expected reported development, partly offset by lower than expected emergence in accident years 2015 and prior; and

•Net adverse development of $74 million in commercial automobile liability, due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2021.

•Net favorable development of $141 million in short-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $89 million in surety, mainly in accident years 2018 through 2020, driven by lower than expected loss emergence;

•Net favorable development of $46 million in accident & health, driven by accident years 2019 and 2020, where loss emergence was lower than expected;

•Net favorable development of $29 million in property and marine coverages in accident year 2020, driven by lower than expected loss development; and

•Net adverse development of $41 million in first-party cyber risk, driven by accident years 2019 and 2020, which experienced higher than expected loss development as well as heightened frequency and severity.

2020

For the three months ended June 30, 2020, net favorable PPD was $146 million, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, and was driven by the following principal changes:

•Net favorable development of $141 million in long-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $152 million in our workers’ compensation lines. This included favorable development of $62 million related to our annual assessment of multi-claimant events including industrial accidents, in the 2019 accident year. Consistent with prior years, we reviewed these potential exposures after the close of the accident year to allow for late reporting or identification of significant losses. This development in accident year 2019 was partially offset by some higher than expected activity from other claims. The remaining overall favorable development was mainly in accident years 2015 and prior, driven by lower than expected loss experience and related updates to loss development factors;

•Net favorable development of $59 million in general liability portfolios, mainly driven by lower than expected paid and reported loss experience in accident years 2016 and prior, partly offset by some adverse emergence in accident years 2017 through 2019;

•Net adverse development of $75 million in commercial automobile liability, mainly in high deductible and excess portfolios, driven by adverse paid and reported loss experience and related updates to loss development factors, mainly in accident years 2015 through 2019; and

•Net adverse development of $5 million for U.S. child molestation claims, predominantly reviver statute-related.

For the six months ended June 30, 2020, net favorable PPD was $251 million, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, and was driven by the following principal changes:

•Net favorable development of $184 million in long-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $182 million in workers’ compensation lines, mainly due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2020, as described above;

•Net favorable development of $66 million in professional liability (errors & omissions and cyber), in accident years 2016 and prior, due to lower than expected emergence;

•Net favorable development of $43 million in voluntary environmental lines, in accident years 2016 and prior, due to lower than expected emergence and a favorable revision to loss development patterns;

•Net favorable development of $36 million in general liability coverages, mainly due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2020, as described above, as well as adverse wholesale general liability results, driven by higher than expected reported loss emergence in accident years 2014 through 2019;

•Net adverse development of $75 million in commercial automobile liability, due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2020, as described above;

•Net adverse development of $40 million in excess and umbrella portfolios, with accident years 2015 through 2019 experiencing higher than expected reported development, partially offset by lower than expected emergence in accident years 2014 and prior; and

•Net adverse development of $5 million for U.S. child molestation claims, predominantly reviver statute-related.

•Net favorable development of $67 million in short-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $37 million, in accident & health, mainly in accident years 2018 and 2019, driven by lower than expected paid loss emergence; and

•Net favorable development of $31 million in surety, driven by accident year 2018, where loss emergence was lower than expected.

North America Personal P&C Insurance

2021

For the three months ended June 30, 2021, net favorable PPD was $44 million, driven by favorable development of $43 million in automobile, predominantly from better than expected frequency results in accident year 2020 for physical damage coverages. For the six months ended June 30, 2021 net favorable PPD was $84 million, driven by the $43 million in automobile described above along with better than expected non-catastrophe loss development in accident year 2020 for homeowners and valuables.

North America Agricultural Insurance

2020

Prior period development in this segment mainly relates to our Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) business and was favorable due to better than expected crop yield results in certain states at the prior year-end period (i.e., 2020 results based on 2019 crop year).

Overseas General Insurance

2021

•Net favorable development of $161 million in short-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $50 million, in property lines in accident years 2019 and 2020, including a $21 million favorable reduction in COVID-19 estimates in accident year 2020. The remaining favorable development was across most regions in accident years 2019 and 2020;

•Net favorable development of $49 million, in accident and health lines, mainly due to favorable loss development across all regions in accident years 2019 and 2020; and

•Net favorable development of $31 million in marine lines in accident years 2018 through 2020, driven by favorable loss development, specific claim reductions, and salvage and subrogation recoveries in Continental Europe and Asia Pacific.

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, net favorable PPD was $181 million, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $186 million in short-tail business, primarily from:

•Net favorable development of $58 million in property lines, net favorable development of $55 million in accident and health lines, and net favorable development of $35 million in marine, due to the same factors experienced for the three months ended June 30, 2021.

2020

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2020, net favorable PPD was $36 million and $40 million, respectively, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, including $19 million and $22 million, respectively, in marine lines across all regions mainly in accident years 2017 and 2018, and favorable case-specific settlements in accident years 2014 and prior.

Global Reinsurance

2020

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2020, net favorable PPD was $16 million and $23 million, respectively, which was the net result of several underlying favorable and adverse movements, none of which is significant individually or in the aggregate.

Corporate

2021

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2021, net adverse development was $88 million and $97 million, respectively, driven by adverse development of $68 million for molestation claims.The remainder of the adverse development was driven by increased claim costs on non-A&E runoff workers’ compensation exposures, and charges relating to run-off operating expenses incurred.

2020

For the three and six months ended June 30, 2020, net adverse development was $274 million and $285 million, respectively, driven by adverse development of $254 million for U.S. child molestation claims, predominantly reviver statute-related. The remainder of the adverse development ($20 million and $31 million, respectively) was driven by increased claim costs on a limited number of non-A&E run-off casualty and workers’ compensation exposures, and charges relating to unallocated loss adjustment expenses due to run-off operating expenses.