EX-99.3 4 aflex993teleconferencespee.htm EX-99.3
Second Quarter 2023
Earnings Call
Video Update
Max K. Brodén
August 1, 2023
For more information contact:
Investor and Rating Agency Relations
800.235.2667
aflacir@aflac.com
Aflac Worldwide Headquarters
1932 Wynnton Road
Columbus, GA 31999
1

Preliminary note: Forward-Looking Information and Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures
Forward-Looking Information
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The company desires to take advantage of these provisions. This transcript contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular, statements containing words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “goal,” “objective,” “may,” “should,” “estimate,” “intends,” “projects,” “will,” “assumes,” “potential,” “target,” "outlook" or similar words as well as specific projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
The company cautions readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
•difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy, including inflation and the continued effects caused by COVID-19
•defaults and credit downgrades of investments
•global fluctuations in interest rates and exposure to significant interest rate risk
•concentration of business in Japan
•limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments
•foreign currency fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate
•differing interpretations applied to investment valuations
•significant valuation judgments in determination of expected credit losses recorded on the Company's investments
•decreases in the Company's financial strength or debt ratings
•decline in creditworthiness of other financial institutions
•concentration of the Company's investments in any particular single-issuer or sector
•major public health issues, including COVID-19 and any resulting or coincidental economic effects, on the Company's business and financial results
•the Company's ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates, brokers, employees, and distribution partners
•deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions
•ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information technology systems and on successful execution of revenue growth and expense management initiatives
•interruption in telecommunication, information technology and other operational systems, or a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data residing on such systems
•subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company
•inherent limitations to risk management policies and procedures
•operational risks of third party vendors
•tax rates applicable to the Company may change
•failure to comply with restrictions on policyholder privacy and information security
•extensive regulation and changes in law or regulation by governmental authorities
•competitive environment and ability to anticipate and respond to market trends
•catastrophic events, including, but not limited to, as a result of climate change, epidemics, pandemics (such as COVID-19), tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, war or other military action, terrorism or other acts of violence, and damage incidental to such events
•ability to protect the Aflac brand and the Company's reputation
•ability to effectively manage key executive succession
•changes in accounting standards
•level and outcome of litigation
•allegations or determinations of worker misclassification in the United States

Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations
This document includes references to the Company’s financial performance measures which are not calculated in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) (non-U.S. GAAP). The financial measures exclude items that the Company believes may obscure the underlying fundamentals and trends in insurance operations because they tend to be driven by general economic conditions and events or related to infrequent activities not directly associated with insurance operations.
Definitions of the Company’s non-U.S. GAAP financial measures and applicable reconciliations to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures are provided in the presentation slides that accompany this transcript.
Due to the size of Aflac Japan, where the functional currency is the Japanese yen, fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate can have a significant effect on reported results. In periods when the yen weakens, translating yen into dollars results in fewer dollars being reported. When the yen strengthens, translating yen into dollars results in more dollars being reported. Consequently, yen weakening has the effect of suppressing current period results in relation to the comparable prior period, while yen strengthening has the effect of magnifying current period results in relation to the comparable prior period. A significant portion of the Company’s business is conducted in yen and never converted into dollars but translated into dollars for U.S. GAAP reporting purposes, which results in foreign currency impact to earnings, cash flows and book value on a U.S. GAAP basis. Management evaluates the Company's financial performance both including and excluding the impact of foreign currency translation to monitor, respectively, cumulative currency impacts and the currency-neutral operating performance over time. The average yen/dollar exchange rate is based on the published MUFG Bank, Ltd. telegraphic transfer middle rate (TTM).

Max K. Brodén
Q2 2023 CFO Video Update
August 1, 2023
Hello, and thank you for joining me as I provide a financial update on Aflac Incorporated's results for the second quarter of 2023.
For the second quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 7.5% year over year to $1.58, with a .04 negative impact from FX in the quarter. We benefited from low benefit ratios both in Japan and the U.S., as claims utilization remained below our long-term expectations, leading to remeasurement gains of $54 million. This is the second quarter reported under the new accounting regime, LDTI, under which we periodically will unlock assumptions and remeasure reserves leading to these gains and losses. In this quarter we did not unlock any assumptions, but we anticipate doing so in Q3 as part of our annual process. Variable investment income ran $29 million, or $0.04 per share, below our long-term return expectations.
Adjusted book value per share including foreign currency translation gains and losses increased 7.4% and the adjusted ROE was 13.9%, or 14.3% excluding the impact of foreign currency, a significant spread to our cost of capital. Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid.
Starting with our Japan segment, net earned premium for the quarter declined 6.2%, with a greater-than-normal paid-up impact. The impact from our January 1st reinsurance transaction was a negative 2.6%. Lapses were somewhat elevated, but within our expectations, leading to a slightly greater-than-expected decline in earned premium. Adjusting for all these factors, we estimate the earned premium decline in the quarter to be 1.8%.
Japan’s total benefit ratio came in at 65.7% for the quarter, down 210 basis points year over year, and the third sector benefit ratio was 56.2%, down approximately 230 basis points year over year. We continue to experience favorable actual to expected on our well-priced, large and mature in-force block. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be 100 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q2. Long-term experience trends as it relates to treatment of cancer and hospitalization, continues to be in place, leading to continued favorable underwriting experience.
Persistency remained solid with a rate of 93.8%, but was down 50 basis points year over year. With product refreshments, we tend to experience some elevation in lapses as customers update and refresh their coverage, which was the case with the recently refreshed cancer, and first sector products.
Our expense ratio in Japan was 19.5%, down 40 basis points year over year, driven primarily by good expense control and to some extent by the reinsurance transaction. Despite lower absolute expenses, the lower revenue base means that holding our expense ratio flat is becoming increasingly challenging with a shrinking inforce.
Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was down 6.4%, as lower returns on our alternatives portfolio, higher hedge costs and the transfer of assets associated with reinsurance were only partially offset by higher yields and the impact of the stronger dollar.
The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 30.4%, up 180 basis points year over year; a very good result for the quarter.
Turning to U.S. results, net earned premium was up 2.2%. Persistency increased approximately 10 basis points year over year to 78.2%. This is a function of poor persistency quarters falling out of the metric and stabilization across numerous product categories, especially Group Voluntary Benefits.
Our total benefit ratio came in lower than expected at 45.3%, a full 190 basis points lower than Q2 2022. We estimate that remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by 210 basis points in the quarter. Claims utilization remained subdued, and as we incorporate more recent experience into our reserve models, we have released some IBNR. For the full year, we now estimate a benefit ratio slightly below our outlook range of 47-50%.

Our expense ratio in the U.S. was 39.0%, up 50 basis points year over year. The elevated expense ratio continues to be impacted by the high lapse environment, but the pressures are subsiding as we expect the expense ratio to improve from these levels.
Our growth initiatives – group life & disability, network dental and vision and direct to consumer – increased our total expense ratio by 260 basis points. We would expect this impact to decrease over time as these businesses grow to scale and improve their profitability. For the full year, we now expect our expense ratio to come in slightly above our outlook range of 37-40%.
Adjusted net investment income in the U.S. was up 5.2%, mainly driven by higher yields on both our fixed and floating rate portfolios, somewhat offset by unfavorable variable investment income in the quarter.
Profitability in the U.S. segment was solid, with a pretax margin of 22.2%, driven primarily by the abnormally low benefit ratio.
In our Corporate segment, we recorded a pretax loss of $52 million, which is somewhat smaller than a year ago primarily due to our internal reinsurance transaction. Adjusted net investment income was $47 million higher than last year despite an increased volume of tax credit investments being recognized. Higher rates began to earn in and amortized hedge income increased. These tax credit investments impacted the Corporate net investment income line for U.S. GAAP purposes negatively by $53 million with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $6.8 million in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with expectations.
We are continuing to build out our reinsurance platform and are pleased with the outcome and performance.
Our capital position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR around 900% in Japan, and our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 650%. Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $3.5 billion, $1.8 billion above our minimum balance. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks. We hold $250 million in reserves under CECL and experienced zero associated charge offs in the quarter. Total GAAP impairments totaled $3 million. U.S. Stat impairments were $3 million, and Japan FSA impairments, JPY170 million, or roughly $1.1 million. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital.
Leverage, remains at a comfortable 19.4%, just below our leverage corridor of 20% to 25%. The decline in the quarter is primarily driven by the weakening yen. As we hold approximately two-thirds of our debt denominated in yen, our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program - protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U.S. dollar terms.
We repurchased $700 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $252 million in Q2, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments. We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital.
Thank you for your time and attention. I look forward to discussing our results in further detail on tomorrow's earnings call.