6. Claim and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves

CNA’s property and casualty insurance claim and claim adjustment expense reserves represent the estimated amounts necessary to resolve all outstanding claims, including incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) claims as of the reporting date. CNA’s reserve projections are based primarily on detailed analysis of the facts in each case, CNA’s experience with similar cases and various historical development patterns. Consideration is given to such historical patterns as claim reserving trends and settlement practices, loss payments, pending levels of unpaid claims and product mix, as well as court decisions, economic conditions, including inflation and public attitudes. All of these factors can affect the estimation of claim and claim adjustment expense reserves.

Establishing claim and claim adjustment expense reserves, including claim and claim adjustment expense reserves for catastrophic events that have occurred, is an estimation process. Many factors can ultimately affect the final settlement of a claim and, therefore, the necessary reserve. Changes in the law, results of litigation, medical costs, the cost of repair materials and labor rates can all affect ultimate claim costs. In addition, time can be a critical part of reserving determinations since the longer the span between the incidence of a loss and the payment or settlement of the claim, the more variable the ultimate settlement amount can be. Accordingly, short-tail claims, such as property damage claims, tend to be more reasonably estimable than long-tail claims, such as workers’ compensation, general liability and professional liability claims. Adjustments to prior year reserve estimates, if necessary, are reflected in the results of operations in the period that the need for such adjustments is determined. There can be no assurance that CNA’s ultimate cost for insurance losses will not exceed current estimates.

Catastrophes are an inherent risk of the property and casualty insurance business and have contributed to material period-to-period fluctuations in CNA’s results of operations and/or equity. CNA reported catastrophe losses, net of reinsurance, of $269 million and $16 million for the three months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 and $342 million and $137 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. Net catastrophe losses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017 included $149 million related to Hurricane Harvey, $95 million related to Hurricane Irma and $20 million related to Hurricane Maria. The remaining catastrophe losses in 2017 related primarily to U.S. weather-related events. Catastrophe-related reinsurance reinstatement premium was $6 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017. Catastrophe losses in 2016 resulted primarily from U.S. weather-related events and the Fort McMurray wildfires.

Liability for Unpaid Claim and Claim Adjustment Expenses Rollforward

The following table presents a reconciliation between beginning and ending claim and claim adjustment expense reserves, including claim and claim adjustment expense reserves of non-core operations.


Nine Months Ended September 30	2017			2016
(In millions)

Reserves, beginning of year:
Gross	$	22,343		$	22,663
Ceded		4,094			4,087
Net reserves, beginning of year		18,249			18,576

Net incurred claim and claim adjustment expenses:
Provision for insured events of current year		3,949			3,799
Decrease in provision for insured events of prior years		(284	)		(332	)
Amortization of discount		138			134
Total net incurred (a)		3,803			3,601

Net payments attributable to:
Current year events		(560	)		(591	)
Prior year events		(3,401	)		(3,209	)
Total net payments		(3,961	)		(3,800	)

Foreign currency translation adjustment and other		110			39

Net reserves, end of period		18,201			18,416
Ceded reserves, end of period		4,008			4,256
Gross reserves, end of period	$	22,209		$	22,672

(a)

Total net incurred above does not agree to Insurance claims and policyholders’ benefits as reflected in the Consolidated Condensed Statements of Income due to amounts related to retroactive reinsurance deferred gain accounting, uncollectible reinsurance and loss deductible receivables and benefit expenses related to future policy benefits, which are not reflected in the table above.

Net Prior Year Development

Changes in estimates of claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserves and premium accruals, net of reinsurance, for prior years are defined as net prior year development. These changes can be favorable or unfavorable. The following table and discussion present net prior year development:


	Three Months Ended September 30,						Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017			2016			2017			2016
(In millions)

Pretax (favorable) unfavorable net prior year claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserve development	$	(115	)	$	(132	)	$	(227	)	$	(282	)
Pretax (favorable) unfavorable premium development		(19	)		(5	)		(2	)		(27	)
Total pretax (favorable) unfavorable net prior year development	$	(134	)	$	(137	)	$	(229	)	$	(309	)

Premium development can occur in the property and casualty business when there is a change in exposure on auditable policies or when premium accruals differ from processed premium. Audits on policies usually occur in a period after the expiration date of the policy. See Note 11 for further information on the premium development for the Small Business multi-peril package product and workers’ compensation policies for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017.

The following table and discussion present details of the net prior year claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserve development (“development”):


	Three Months Ended September 30,						Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017			2016			2017			2016
(In millions)

Medical professional liability	$	1		$	13		$	5		$	(17	)
Other professional liability and management liability		(27	)		(48	)		(96	)		(98	)
Surety		(82	)		(63	)		(82	)		(63	)
Commercial auto		(14	)		(12	)		(40	)		(47	)
General liability		7			14			6			(38	)
Workers’ compensation		7			(6	)		(39	)		48
Other		(7	)		(30	)		19			(67	)
Total pretax (favorable) unfavorable development	$	(115	)	$	(132	)	$	(227	)	$	(282	)

Three Months

2017

Favorable development in other professional and management liability was primarily due to lower than expected claim frequency in accident years 2012 through 2015, primarily for professional liability products.

Favorable development in surety coverages was primarily due to lower than expected frequency of large losses in accident years 2015 and prior.

Favorable development for commercial auto was primarily due to lower than expected severity in accident years 2015 and 2016, as well as a large favorable recovery on a claim in accident year 2012.

Unfavorable development in workers’ compensation reflects the recognition of loss estimates related to favorable premium development as well as an adverse arbitration ruling related to reinsurance recoverables from older accident years.

Favorable development for other coverages reflects better than expected emergence in Canadian run-off business in accident years 2014 and prior.

2016

Unfavorable development for medical professional liability was primarily due to higher than expected frequency in accident years 2014 and 2015 in aging services. Increased claims on a specific hospital policy in accident years 2014 and 2015 was also an unfavorable contributor, although more than offset by favorable development relative to expectations in accident years 2013 and prior.

Favorable development in other professional liability and management liability was primarily related to lower than expected frequency of claims and favorable outcomes on specific claims for accident years 2010 through 2014.

Favorable development in surety coverages was primarily due to lower than expected frequency of large losses in accident years 2014 and prior.

Favorable development for commercial auto was primarily due to lower than expected severities in accident years 2012 through 2015.

Unfavorable development for general liability was primarily due to an increase in reported claims prior to the closing of the three year window set forth by the Minnesota Child Victims Act in accident years 2006 and prior.

Favorable development for workers’ compensation was primarily driven by lower than expected frequencies in accident years 2009 through 2014, partially offset by the estimated impact of recent Florida court rulings in accident years 2008 through 2015.

Favorable development for other coverages was primarily due to better than expected claim frequency in commercial lines coverages provided to customers in accident years 2010 through 2015, favorable settlements on claims in accident years 2013 and prior and favorable emergence of expected losses on a specific claim relating to the December 2015 United Kingdom (“U.K.”) floods for property and marine. This favorable development was partially offset by higher than expected unfavorable large loss emergence in accident years 2014 and 2015.

Nine Months

2017

Favorable development in other professional liability and management liability was primarily due to favorable settlements on closed claims and a lower frequency of large losses for accident years 2011 through 2016 for professional and management liability, lower than expected claim frequency in accident years 2012 through 2015 for professional liability and lower than expected severity in accident years 2014 through 2016 for professional liability.

Favorable development in surety coverages was primarily due to lower than expected frequency of large losses in accident years 2015 and prior.

Favorable development for commercial auto was primarily due to lower than expected severity in accident years 2013 through 2016, as well as a large favorable recovery on a claim in accident year 2012.

Favorable development for workers’ compensation was primarily related to decreases in frequency and severity in recent accident years, partially attributable to California reforms related to decreases in medical costs. This was partially offset by unfavorable development related to an adverse arbitration ruling on reinsurance recoverables from older accident years as well as the recognition of loss estimates associated with favorable premium development.

Favorable development for other coverages was primarily due to better than expected emergence in the Canadian run-off business in accident years 2014 and prior, as well as several favorable settlements relating to large claims in the Europe Professional Indemnity portfolio. Additional favorable development related to better than expected frequency in accident years 2014 through 2016 for property and marine. This was partially offset by unfavorable development related to higher than expected severity in accident year 2015 arising from the management liability business and higher than expected severity in accident year 2016 for property and other and adverse large claims experience in the Hardy Political Risks portfolio, relating largely to accident year 2016 for other coverages.

2016

Favorable development for medical professional liability was primarily due to lower than expected severities for individual healthcare professionals, allied facilities and hospitals in accident years 2011 and prior. This was partially offset by unfavorable development in accident years 2012 and 2013 related to higher than expected large loss emergence in hospitals and higher than expected frequency and severity in accident years 2014 and 2015 in CNA’s aging services business.

Favorable development in other professional liability and management liability was primarily related to favorable settlements on closed claims in accident years 2011 through 2013 in professional services. Additional favorable development related to lower than expected frequency of claims and favorable outcomes on specific claims in accident years 2010 through 2014 in professional services. This was partially offset by unfavorable development related to a specific financial institutions claim in accident year 2014, higher severities in accident year 2015 and deterioration on credit crises-related claims in accident year 2009.

Favorable development in surety coverages was primarily due to lower than expected frequency of large losses in accident years 2014 and prior.

Favorable development for commercial auto was primarily due to favorable settlements on claims in accident years 2010 through 2014 and lower than expected severities in accident years 2012 through 2015.

Favorable development for general liability was primarily due to better than expected claim settlements in accident years 2012 through 2014 and better than expected severity on umbrella claims in accident years 2010 through 2013. This was partially offset by unfavorable development related to an increase in reported claims prior to the closing of the three year window set forth by the Minnesota Child Victims Act in accident years 2006 and prior.

Unfavorable development for workers’ compensation was primarily due to higher than expected severity for Defense Base Act contractors and the estimated impact of recent Florida court rulings in accident years 2008 through 2015. This was partially offset by favorable development related to lower than expected frequencies related to accident years 2009 through 2014.

Favorable development for other coverages was primarily due to better than expected claim frequency in property coverages in accident year 2015 and commercial lines coverages in accident years 2010 through 2015, better than expected loss frequency in accident years 2013 through 2015 for property and other, favorable settlements on claims in accident years 2013 and prior, better than expected severity in accident years 2013 and prior for liability, favorable emergence of expected losses on a specific claim relating to the December 2015 U.K. floods for property and marine and better than expected severity in accident years 2011 through 2015 for auto liability. This favorable development was partially offset by higher than expected severity from a 2015 catastrophe event for property and other and higher than expected large loss emergence in accident years 2011 through 2015.

Asbestos and Environmental Pollution (“A&EP”) Reserves

In 2010, Continental Casualty Company (“CCC”) together with several of CNA’s insurance subsidiaries completed a transaction with National Indemnity Company (“NICO”), a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., under which substantially all of CNA’s legacy A&EP liabilities were ceded to NICO through a loss portfolio transfer (“LPT”). At the effective date of the transaction, CNA ceded approximately $1.6 billion of net A&EP claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserves to NICO under a retroactive reinsurance agreement with an aggregate limit of $4.0 billion. The $1.6 billion of claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserves ceded to NICO was net of $1.2 billion of ceded claim and allocated claim adjustment expense reserves under existing third party reinsurance contracts. The NICO LPT aggregate reinsurance limit also covers credit risk on the existing third party reinsurance related to these liabilities. CNA paid NICO a reinsurance premium of $2.0 billion and transferred to NICO billed third party reinsurance receivables related to A&EP claims with a net book value of $215 million, resulting in total consideration of $2.2 billion.

Subsequent to the effective date of the LPT, CNA recognized adverse prior year development on its A&EP reserves which resulted in additional amounts ceded under the LPT. As a result, the cumulative amounts ceded under the LPT exceeded the $2.2 billion consideration paid, resulting in the NICO LPT moving into a gain position, requiring retroactive reinsurance accounting. Under retroactive reinsurance accounting, this gain is deferred and only recognized in earnings in proportion to actual paid recoveries under the LPT. Over the life of the contract, there is no economic impact as long as any additional losses incurred are within the limit of the LPT. In a period in which CNA recognizes a change in the estimate of A&EP reserves that increases the amounts ceded under the LPT, the proportion of actual paid recoveries to total ceded losses is impacted and the change in the deferred gain is recognized in earnings as if the revised estimate of ceded losses was available at the effective date of the LPT. The effect of the deferred retroactive reinsurance benefit is recorded in Insurance claims and policyholders’ benefits in the Consolidated Condensed Statements of Income.

The following table presents the impact of the loss portfolio transfer on the Consolidated Condensed Statements of Income.


	Three Months Ended September 30,						Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017			2016			2017			2016
(In millions)

Net A&EP adverse development before consideration of LPT	$	-		$	-		$	60		$	200
Retroactive reinsurance benefit recognized		(17	)		(12	)		(60	)		(94	)
Pretax impact of A&EP reserve development and the LPT	$	(17	)	$	(12	)	$	-		$	106

Based upon CNA’s annual A&EP reserve review, net unfavorable prior year development of $60 million and $200 million was recognized before consideration of cessions to the LPT for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. The 2017 unfavorable development was driven by modestly higher anticipated payouts on claims from known sources of asbestos exposure. The 2016 unfavorable development was driven by an increase in anticipated future expenses associated with determination of coverage, higher anticipated payouts associated with a limited number of historical accounts having significant asbestos exposures and higher than expected severity on pollution claims. While this unfavorable development was ceded to NICO under the LPT, CNA’s reported earnings in both periods were negatively affected due to the application of retroactive reinsurance accounting.

As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the cumulative amounts ceded under the LPT were $2.9 billion and $2.8 billion. The unrecognized deferred retroactive reinsurance benefit was $334 million as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016.

NICO established a collateral trust account as security for its obligations to CNA. The fair value of the collateral trust account was $2.9 billion and $2.8 billion as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016. In addition, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. guaranteed the payment obligations of NICO up to the aggregate reinsurance limit as well as certain of NICO’s performance obligations under the trust agreement. NICO is responsible for claims handling and billing and collection from third-party reinsurers related to CNA’s A&EP claims.