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INVESTMENTS AND FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
 12 Months Ended
Dec. 29, 2024
Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]  
INVESTMENTS AND FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
4. INVESTMENTS AND FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
Strategic Investments
Marketable Equity Securities
Our short-term investments consist of marketable equity securities. As of December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the fair value of our marketable equity securities totaled $93 million and $6 million, respectively. The increase in our marketable equity securities relates to the investment we retained in GRAIL subsequent to the Spin-Off, which was initially recorded as $397 million, representing 14.5% of GRAIL’s net assets disposed of at Spin-Off. Refer to note 2. GRAIL Spin-Off for details. We recorded an unrealized loss of $309 million in 2024, subsequent to the Spin-Off, based on the fair value of our investment in GRAIL as of December 29, 2024.
Gains and (losses) recognized in other expense, net on marketable equity securities were as follows:
In millions202420232022
Net (losses) recognized during the period on marketable equity securities
$(310)$(2)$(81)
Less: Net (losses) recognized during the period on marketable equity securities sold during the period
— (2)— 
Net unrealized (losses) recognized during the period on marketable equity securities still held at the reporting date
$(310)$— $(81)
Non-Marketable Equity Securities
As of December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2023, non-marketable equity securities, without readily determinable fair values, included in other assets, were $26 million and $28 million, respectively.
Venture Funds
We invest in three venture capital investment funds (the Funds), which are accounted for as equity-method investments. The aggregate carrying amount of the Funds, included in other assets, was $201 million and $168 million as of December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. We recorded a net gain of $5 million in 2024, and net losses of $33 million and $25 million in 2023 and 2022, respectively, in other expense, net.
Our commitments to the Funds are as follows:
Dollars in millions
Capital commitments
Callable through date
Remaining callable as of December 29, 2024(1)
Fund I
$100 April 2026$3 
Fund II
$150 July 2029$46 
Fund III
$60 December 2034$47 
_____________
(1)Fund I also had recallable distributions of approximately $10 million.
Revenue recognized from transactions with our strategic investees was $20 million, $69 million, and $113 million in 2024, 2023, and 2022, respectively.
Fair Value Measurements
The following table presents the hierarchy for assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis:
December 29, 2024December 31, 2023
In millionsLevel 1Level 2Level 3TotalLevel 1Level 2Level 3Total
Assets:
Money market funds (cash equivalents)$931 $— $— $931 $774 $— $— $774 
Marketable equity securities93 — — 93 6 — — 6 
Other investments
— — 17 17 — — — — 
Helix contingent value right— — — — — — 68 68 
Deferred compensation plan assets— 70 — 70 — 61 — 61 
Total assets measured at fair value$1,024 $70 $17 $1,111 $780 $61 $68 $909 
Liabilities:
Contingent consideration liabilities$— $— $73 $73 $— $— $387 $387 
Deferred compensation plan liability— 65 — 65 — 59 — 59 
Total liabilities measured at fair value$— $65 $73 $138 $— $59 $387 $446 
Marketable equity securities are measured at fair value based on quoted trade prices in active markets. Other investments, included in other assets, consist of convertible notes, for which we elected the fair value option. Fair value is derived using a probability-weighted scenario approach. Changes in fair value are recognized in other expense, net. Deferred compensation plan assets consist primarily of investments in life insurance contracts carried at cash surrender value, which reflects the net asset value of the underlying publicly traded mutual funds. We corroborate the fair value of our holdings, comparing valuations obtained from our investment service provider to valuations reported by our asset custodians, validating pricing sources and models, and reviewing key model inputs.
Helix Contingent Value Right
In conjunction with the deconsolidation of Helix Holdings I, LLC (Helix) in April 2019, we received a contingent value right with a 7-year term that entitled us to consideration dependent upon the outcome of Helix’s future financing and/or liquidity events. We elected the fair value option to measure the contingent value right received from Helix. Changes in the estimated fair value are recognized in other expense, net. We estimated the fair value of the contingent value right using a Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates and assumptions used in the Monte Carlo simulation included probabilities related to the timing and outcome of future financing and/or liquidity events, assumptions regarding collectability and volatility, and an estimated equity value of Helix. These unobservable inputs represented a Level 3 measurement because they are supported by little or no market activity and reflect our own assumptions in measuring fair value. On July 31, 2024, we received cash of $83 million to settle the contingent value right early.
Changes in the Helix contingent value right were as follows:
In millions
Balance as of January 2, 2022$65 
Change in estimated fair value(7)
Balance as of January 1, 202358 
Change in estimated fair value10 
Balance as of December 31, 202368 
Change in estimated fair value15 
Cash received to settle(83)
Balance as of December 29, 2024$— 
Contingent Consideration Liabilities
We reassess the fair value of contingent consideration related to acquisitions on a quarterly basis, with changes in the fair value, subsequent to the acquisition date, recognized in selling, general and administrative expense. The contingent value rights issued as part of the GRAIL acquisition entitle the holders to receive future cash payments on a quarterly basis (Covered Revenue Payments) representing a pro rata portion of certain GRAIL-related revenues (Covered Revenues) each year for a 12-year period (through August 2033). As defined in the Contingent Value Rights Agreement, this will reflect a 2.5% payment right to the first $1 billion of revenue each year for 12 years. Revenue above $1 billion each year will be subject to a 9% contingent payment right during this same period. Covered Revenues for the periods Q4 2023 through Q3 2024, Q4 2022 through Q3 2023, and Q4 2021 through Q3 2022 were $117 million, $85 million, and $42 million, respectively, driven primarily by sales of GRAIL’s Galleri test. Covered Revenue Payments relating to such periods were $1.1 million, $803,000, and $396,000 in 2024, 2023, and 2022, respectively. A portion of the Covered Revenue Payments in 2022 were applied to reimburse us for certain expenses.
The fair value of our contingent consideration liability related to GRAIL was $71 million and $387 million as of December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, of which $70 million and $385 million, respectively, was included in other long-term liabilities, with the remaining balances included in accrued liabilities. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the fair value of the GRAIL contingent consideration liability. Estimates and assumptions used in the Monte Carlo simulation include forecasted revenues for GRAIL, a revenue risk premium, a revenue volatility estimate, an operational leverage ratio and a counterparty credit spread. These unobservable inputs represent a Level 3 measurement because they are supported by little or no market activity and reflect our own assumptions in measuring fair value. Subsequent to the Spin-Off, we no longer have access to GRAIL management’s forecasts. Therefore, we must rely on information made public by GRAIL’s management and, beginning in Q4 2024, information published in analyst reports to estimate forecasted revenues through August 2033. In August 2024, GRAIL publicly announced a corporate restructure, including a reduction in headcount and planned hires and a substantial decrease in certain R&D projects and investments. To estimate the liability as of December 29, 2024, we selected a revenue risk premium of 9%, which was derived from reconciling our forecasted revenues for GRAIL to GRAIL’s market capitalization based on a 60-day trailing average. The significant decrease in the contingent consideration liability from December 31, 2023 was due to a decrease in the forecasted revenues, following revised revenue projections announced by GRAIL in May 2024 and the restructuring announcement in August 2024.
The assumptions used in estimating the fair value of the contingent consideration liability related to GRAIL are inherently subject to uncertainty and we note that small changes in these assumptions could have a significant impact on the concluded value. For example, an increase or decrease of 20%, in each year, to the forecasted revenues would have resulted in an increase of $17 million and a decrease of $18 million, respectively, in the liability as of December 29, 2024. Additionally, an increase or decrease of 250 basis points to the selected revenue risk premium would have resulted in a decrease of $12 million and an increase of $15 million, respectively. We expect certain levels of volatility in the GRAIL contingent consideration liability are possible in future periods.
Changes in the estimated fair value of our contingent consideration liabilities were as follows:
In millions
Balance as of January 2, 2022$615 
Acquisition2 
Change in estimated fair value(205)
Balance as of January 1, 2023412 
Change in estimated fair value(24)
Cash payments(1)
Balance as of December 31, 2023387 
Acquisition2 
Change in estimated fair value(315)
Cash payments(1)
Balance as of December 29, 2024$73