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Insurance | 12 Months Ended
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Dec. 31, 2021
Insurance [Abstract] |
Insurance | Insurance Cash and securities owned by U.S.-based insurance subsidiaries, having a carrying value of approximately $1.23 billion at December 31, 2021, were on deposit as required by regulatory authorities. Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves Estimating the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”) is inherently judgmental and is influenced by factors that are subject to significant variation. Determining the liability is a complex process incorporating input from many areas of the Company including actuarial, underwriting, pricing, claims and operations management. The process used to determine the total reserve for liabilities involves estimating the ultimate incurred losses and LAE, adjusted for amounts already paid on the claims. The IBNR reserve is derived by first estimating the ultimate unpaid reserve liability and subtracting case reserves for loss and LAE. In determining management’s best estimate of the ultimate liability, management (with the assistance of Company actuaries) considers items such as the effect of inflation on medical, hospitalization, material, repair and replacement costs, the nature and maturity of lines of insurance, general economic trends and the legal environment. In addition, historical trends adjusted for changes in underwriting standards, policy provisions, product mix and other factors are analyzed using actuarial reserve development techniques. Weighing all of the factors, the management team determines a single or “point” estimate that it records as its best estimate of the ultimate liability. Ranges of loss reserves are not developed by Company actuaries. This reserve analysis and review is completed each quarter and for almost every business within AFG’s property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Each quarterly review includes in-depth analysis of several hundred subdivisions of the business, employing multiple actuarial techniques. For each subdivision, actuaries use informed, professional judgment to adjust these techniques as necessary to respond to specific conditions in the data or within the business. Some of the standard actuarial methods employed for the quarterly reserve analysis may include (but may not be limited to): •Case Incurred Development Method •Paid Development Method •Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method •Incremental Paid LAE to Paid Loss Methods Each method has particular strengths and weaknesses and no single estimation method is most accurate in all situations. When applied to a particular group of claims, the relative strengths and weaknesses of each method can change over time based on the facts and circumstances. Ultimately, the estimation methods chosen are those which the actuary believes produce the most reliable indication for the particular liabilities under review. The period of time from the event triggering a claim through the settlement of the liability is referred to as the “tail”. Generally, the same actuarial methods are considered for both short-tail and long-tail lines of business because most of them work properly for both. The methods are designed to incorporate the effects of the differing length of time to settle particular claims. For nearly all lines of business, the actuaries rely heavily on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method for more recent accident periods. As accident years mature and the underlying claim data becomes more credible, more weight is given to the Case Incurred and Paid Development methods. This transition occurs relatively quickly for short-tailed lines, and over a number of years for long-tail lines. Liability claims for long-tail lines are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretation and the legal environment. Therefore, the estimation of loss reserves for these classes is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability. The level of detail in which data is analyzed varies among the different lines of business. Data is generally analyzed by major product or by coverage within product, using countrywide data; however, in some situations, data may be reviewed by state or region. Appropriate segmentation of the data is determined based on data credibility, homogeneity of development patterns, mix of business, and other actuarial considerations. Supplementary statistical information is also reviewed to determine which methods are most appropriate to use or if adjustments are needed to particular methods. Such information includes: •Open and closed claim counts •Average case reserves and average incurred on open claims •Closure rates and statistics related to closed and open claim percentages •Average closed claim severity •Ultimate claim severity •Reported loss ratios •Projected ultimate loss ratios •Loss payment patterns Within each business, results of individual methods are reviewed, supplementary statistical information is analyzed, and data from underwriting, operating and claim management are considered in deriving management’s best estimate of the ultimate liability. This estimate may be the result of one method, a weighted average of several methods, or a judgmental selection as the management team determines is appropriate. The liability for losses and LAE for a very limited number of claims with long-term scheduled payments under certain workers’ compensation policies has been discounted at 3.5% at both December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, which represents an approximation of long-term investment yields. Because of the limited amount of claims involved, the net impact of discounting did not materially impact AFG’s total liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (net reductions from discounting of $8 million and $9 million at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively). The following table provides an analysis of changes in the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses over the past three years (in millions):
| 2021 |  | 2020 |  | 2019
Balance at beginning of period | $ | 10,392 |  |  | $ | 10,232 |  |  | $ | 9,741 |
Less reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance | 3,117 |  |  | 3,024 |  |  | 2,942 |
Net liability at beginning of period | 7,275 |  |  | 7,208 |  |  | 6,799 |
Provision for losses and LAE occurring in the current year | 3,436 |  |  | 3,398 |  |  | 3,414 |
Net increase (decrease) in the provision for claims of prior years: |  |  |  |  |
Special A&E charges | — |  |  | 47 |  |  | 18 |
Neon exited lines | — |  |  | 19 |  |  | 7 |
Other | (279) |  |  | (193) |  |  | (168) |
Total losses and LAE incurred | 3,157 |  |  | 3,271 |  |  | 3,271 |
Payments for losses and LAE of: |  |  |  |  |
Current year | (1,024) |  |  | (990) |  |  | (1,076) |
Prior years | (1,753) |  |  | (1,766) |  |  | (1,790) |
Total payments | (2,777) |  |  | (2,756) |  |  | (2,866) |
Reserves of businesses disposed (*) | — |  |  | (449) |  |  | — |
Foreign currency translation and other | — |  |  | 1 |  |  | 4 |
Net liability at end of period | 7,655 |  |  | 7,275 |  |  | 7,208 |
Add back reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance | 3,419 |  |  | 3,117 |  |  | 3,024 |
Gross unpaid losses and LAE included in the balance sheet | $ | 11,074 |  |  | $ | 10,392 |  |  | $ | 10,232 |
(*)Reflects the December 31, 2020 sale of Neon (see Note C — “Acquisitions and Sale of Businesses”). The 2021 and 2020 provision for losses and LAE occurring in the current year includes $16 million and $115 million (including $20 million recorded by the Neon exited lines), respectively, of COVID-19 related losses. In addition, the net decrease in the provision for losses and LAE includes favorable development of $19 million in 2021 related to COVID-19 related losses. The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2021 reflects (i) lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the transportation businesses, lower than expected losses in the crop business, lower than expected claim severity in the ocean marine business and lower than expected claim frequency in the aviation business (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) lower than anticipated claim frequency in the surety and trade credit businesses and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the financial institutions business (within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) higher than anticipated claim severity in the general liability and targeted markets businesses (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (ii) net adverse reserve development related to business outside the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes. The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2020 reflects (i) lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the aviation, transportation and agricultural businesses (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses and lower than anticipated claim frequency in the executive liability business (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) lower than anticipated claim frequency in the trade credit business and lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the financial institutions, fidelity and surety businesses (within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $47 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves and adverse reserve development of $19 million on Neon’s exited lines of business, (ii) higher than expected claim frequency and severity in general liability contractor claims and the excess and surplus and excess liability businesses and higher than anticipated claim severity in the targeted markets businesses (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) net adverse reserve development related to business outside the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes. The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2019 reflects (i) lower than expected claim frequency and severity at National Interstate and lower than expected losses in the crop business (all within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the workers’ compensation businesses (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety and financial institutions businesses and lower than anticipated claim severity in the trade credit business (all within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $18 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves and adverse reserve development of $7 million on Neon’s exited lines of business, (ii) higher than expected claim severity in the excess and surplus businesses and higher than expected claim frequency in product liability contractor claims (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) net adverse reserve development related to business outside the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes. A reconciliation of incurred and paid claims development information to the aggregate carrying amount of the liability for unpaid losses and LAE, with separate disclosure of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid claims is shown below (in millions):
| 2021
Unpaid losses and allocated LAE, net of reinsurance: |
Specialty |
Property and transportation | $ | 1,318 |
Specialty casualty | 4,447 |
Specialty financial | 256 |
Other specialty | 434 |
Total Specialty (excluding foreign reserves) | 6,455 |
Other reserves |
Foreign operations | 349 |
A&E reserves | 408 |
Unallocated LAE | 382 |
Other | 61 |
Total other reserves | 1,200 |
Total reserves, net of reinsurance | 7,655 |
Add back reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance | 3,419 |
Gross unpaid losses and LAE included in the balance sheet | $ | 11,074 |
The following claims development tables and associated disclosures related to short-duration insurance contracts are prepared by sub-segment within the property and casualty insurance business for the most recent 10 accident years. AFG determines its claim counts at the claimant or policy feature level depending on the particular facts and circumstances of the underlying claim. While the methodology is generally consistent within each sub-segment, there are minor differences between and within the sub-segments. The methods used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods reported in the tables below.
Property and transportation |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(Dollars in Millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  | As of December 31, 2021
|  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  | Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims |  | Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year |  | 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  |
2012 |  | $ | 864 |  |  | $ | 857 |  |  | $ | 871 |  |  | $ | 883 |  |  | $ | 894 |  |  | $ | 890 |  |  | $ | 886 |  |  | $ | 881 |  |  | $ | 879 |  |  | $ | 877 |  |  | $ | 3 |  |  | 143,144 |
2013 |  |  |  | 882 |  |  | 870 |  |  | 872 |  |  | 878 |  |  | 878 |  |  | 877 |  |  | 873 |  |  | 871 |  |  | 870 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 138,947 |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 844 |  |  | 828 |  |  | 817 |  |  | 820 |  |  | 815 |  |  | 808 |  |  | 804 |  |  | 802 |  |  | 6 |  |  | 133,218 |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 818 |  |  | 784 |  |  | 779 |  |  | 777 |  |  | 777 |  |  | 772 |  |  | 768 |  |  | 9 |  |  | 134,923 |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 746 |  |  | 716 |  |  | 714 |  |  | 706 |  |  | 694 |  |  | 688 |  |  | 15 |  |  | 121,191 |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 889 |  |  | 847 |  |  | 843 |  |  | 823 |  |  | 816 |  |  | 19 |  |  | 140,714 |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 932 |  |  | 902 |  |  | 886 |  |  | 876 |  |  | 35 |  |  | 130,271 |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,111 |  |  | 1,058 |  |  | 1,051 |  |  | 65 |  |  | 153,560 |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,043 |  |  | 974 |  |  | 138 |  |  | 120,696 |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,119 |  |  | 397 |  |  | 108,153 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 8,841 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  |  |  |
Accident Year |  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
| 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | % (a) |  |
2012 |  | $ | 572 |  |  | $ | 708 |  |  | $ | 772 |  |  | $ | 816 |  |  | $ | 842 |  |  | $ | 856 |  |  | $ | 882 |  |  | $ | 869 |  |  | $ | 872 |  |  | $ | 873 |  |  | 99.5 | % |  |
2013 |  |  |  | 438 |  |  | 702 |  |  | 760 |  |  | 804 |  |  | 831 |  |  | 847 |  |  | 858 |  |  | 860 |  |  | 861 |  |  | 99.0 | % |  |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 329 |  |  | 632 |  |  | 693 |  |  | 744 |  |  | 770 |  |  | 783 |  |  | 789 |  |  | 791 |  |  | 98.6 | % |  |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 359 |  |  | 582 |  |  | 667 |  |  | 707 |  |  | 736 |  |  | 744 |  |  | 750 |  |  | 97.7 | % |  |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 294 |  |  | 521 |  |  | 577 |  |  | 618 |  |  | 640 |  |  | 656 |  |  | 95.3 | % |  |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 379 |  |  | 640 |  |  | 696 |  |  | 735 |  |  | 755 |  |  | 92.5 | % |  |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 396 |  |  | 676 |  |  | 738 |  |  | 781 |  |  | 89.2 | % |  |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 527 |  |  | 823 |  |  | 904 |  |  | 86.0 | % |  |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 461 |  |  | 726 |  |  | 74.5 | % |  |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 449 |  |  | 40.1 | % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 7,546 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2012 through 2021 |  | 1,295 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | 23 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | $ | 1,318 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
|  | Year 1 |  | Year 2 |  | Year 3 |  | Year 4 |  | Year 5 |  | Year 6 |  | Year 7 |  | Year 8 |  | Year 9 |  | Year 10 |  |  |  |
Annual |  | 47.5 | % |  | 29.4 | % |  | 7.8 | % |  | 5.3 | % |  | 3.1 | % |  | 1.7 | % |  | 1.4 | % |  | (0.3 | %) |  | 0.2 | % |  | 0.1 | % |  |  |  |
Cumulative |  | 47.5 | % |  | 76.9 | % |  | 84.7 | % |  | 90.0 | % |  | 93.1 | % |  | 94.8 | % |  | 96.2 | % |  | 95.9 | % |  | 96.1 | % |  | 96.2 | % |  |  |  |
(a)Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2021).
Specialty casualty |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(Dollars in Millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  | As of December 31, 2021
|  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  | Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims |  | Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year |  | 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  |
2012 |  | $ | 901 |  |  | $ | 892 |  |  | $ | 885 |  |  | $ | 885 |  |  | $ | 883 |  |  | $ | 877 |  |  | $ | 849 |  |  | $ | 842 |  |  | $ | 833 |  |  | $ | 826 |  |  | $ | 23 |  |  | 54,827 |
2013 |  |  |  | 968 |  |  | 949 |  |  | 945 |  |  | 940 |  |  | 945 |  |  | 926 |  |  | 916 |  |  | 905 |  |  | 898 |  |  | 35 |  |  | 55,128 |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 1,035 |  |  | 1,008 |  |  | 1,008 |  |  | 1,006 |  |  | 982 |  |  | 967 |  |  | 952 |  |  | 950 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 56,942 |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,081 |  |  | 1,043 |  |  | 1,041 |  |  | 1,042 |  |  | 1,024 |  |  | 1,021 |  |  | 1,015 |  |  | 67 |  |  | 58,076 |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,131 |  |  | 1,122 |  |  | 1,116 |  |  | 1,101 |  |  | 1,090 |  |  | 1,069 |  |  | 124 |  |  | 56,407 |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,211 |  |  | 1,221 |  |  | 1,204 |  |  | 1,189 |  |  | 1,162 |  |  | 200 |  |  | 56,975 |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,277 |  |  | 1,307 |  |  | 1,302 |  |  | 1,262 |  |  | 297 |  |  | 58,808 |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,308 |  |  | 1,311 |  |  | 1,322 |  |  | 442 |  |  | 58,304 |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,352 |  |  | 1,329 |  |  | 631 |  |  | 52,733 |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1,384 |  |  | 907 |  |  | 48,149 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 11,217 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  |  |  |
Accident Year |  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
| 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | % (a) |  |
2012 |  | $ | 173 |  |  | $ | 385 |  |  | $ | 516 |  |  | $ | 621 |  |  | $ | 684 |  |  | $ | 723 |  |  | $ | 745 |  |  | $ | 761 |  |  | $ | 775 |  |  | $ | 783 |  |  | 94.8 | % |  |
2013 |  |  |  | 182 |  |  | 396 |  |  | 554 |  |  | 666 |  |  | 729 |  |  | 766 |  |  | 797 |  |  | 820 |  |  | 835 |  |  | 93.0 | % |  |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 190 |  |  | 412 |  |  | 574 |  |  | 680 |  |  | 755 |  |  | 801 |  |  | 829 |  |  | 862 |  |  | 90.7 | % |  |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 178 |  |  | 411 |  |  | 577 |  |  | 702 |  |  | 792 |  |  | 844 |  |  | 888 |  |  | 87.5 | % |  |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 186 |  |  | 418 |  |  | 584 |  |  | 713 |  |  | 806 |  |  | 870 |  |  | 81.4 | % |  |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 200 |  |  | 422 |  |  | 612 |  |  | 755 |  |  | 833 |  |  | 71.7 | % |  |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 210 |  |  | 475 |  |  | 649 |  |  | 794 |  |  | 62.9 | % |  |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 212 |  |  | 455 |  |  | 651 |  |  | 49.2 | % |  |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 188 |  |  | 446 |  |  | 33.6 | % |  |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 191 |  |  | 13.8 | % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 7,153 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2012 through 2021 |  | 4,064 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | 383 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | $ | 4,447 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
|  | Year 1 |  | Year 2 |  | Year 3 |  | Year 4 |  | Year 5 |  | Year 6 |  | Year 7 |  | Year 8 |  | Year 9 |  | Year 10 |  |  |  |
Annual |  | 17.4 | % |  | 21.7 | % |  | 15.9 | % |  | 12.1 | % |  | 7.8 | % |  | 5.0 | % |  | 3.3 | % |  | 2.7 | % |  | 1.7 | % |  | 1.0 | % |  |  |  |
Cumulative |  | 17.4 | % |  | 39.1 | % |  | 55.0 | % |  | 67.1 | % |  | 74.9 | % |  | 79.9 | % |  | 83.2 | % |  | 85.9 | % |  | 87.6 | % |  | 88.6 | % |  |  |  |
(a)Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2021).
Specialty financial |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(Dollars in Millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  | As of December 31, 2021
|  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  | Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims |  | Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year |  | 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  |
2012 |  | $ | 163 |  |  | $ | 163 |  |  | $ | 151 |  |  | $ | 139 |  |  | $ | 137 |  |  | $ | 135 |  |  | $ | 132 |  |  | $ | 127 |  |  | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 125 |  |  | $ | 1 |  |  | 21,094 |
2013 |  |  |  | 140 |  |  | 145 |  |  | 137 |  |  | 131 |  |  | 127 |  |  | 126 |  |  | 122 |  |  | 122 |  |  | 120 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 28,475 |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 146 |  |  | 157 |  |  | 156 |  |  | 153 |  |  | 147 |  |  | 142 |  |  | 137 |  |  | 136 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 29,466 |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 156 |  |  | 160 |  |  | 158 |  |  | 153 |  |  | 145 |  |  | 138 |  |  | 136 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 37,626 |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 179 |  |  | 184 |  |  | 187 |  |  | 182 |  |  | 174 |  |  | 170 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 45,157 |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 212 |  |  | 215 |  |  | 212 |  |  | 208 |  |  | 203 |  |  | 8 |  |  | 48,781 |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 212 |  |  | 217 |  |  | 219 |  |  | 207 |  |  | 15 |  |  | 46,697 |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 194 |  |  | 198 |  |  | 191 |  |  | 23 |  |  | 41,735 |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 231 |  |  | 215 |  |  | 49 |  |  | 29,254 |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 223 |  |  | 110 |  |  | 23,349 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 1,726 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  |  |  |
Accident Year |  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
| 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | % (a) |  |
2012 |  | $ | 71 |  |  | $ | 104 |  |  | $ | 109 |  |  | $ | 117 |  |  | $ | 121 |  |  | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 128 |  |  | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 125 |  |  | $ | 125 |  |  | 100.0 | % |  |
2013 |  |  |  | 70 |  |  | 100 |  |  | 107 |  |  | 113 |  |  | 117 |  |  | 117 |  |  | 118 |  |  | 118 |  |  | 118 |  |  | 98.3 | % |  |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 62 |  |  | 109 |  |  | 125 |  |  | 128 |  |  | 137 |  |  | 139 |  |  | 141 |  |  | 140 |  |  | 102.9 | % |  |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 72 |  |  | 110 |  |  | 129 |  |  | 133 |  |  | 132 |  |  | 134 |  |  | 134 |  |  | 98.5 | % |  |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 88 |  |  | 141 |  |  | 158 |  |  | 161 |  |  | 163 |  |  | 164 |  |  | 96.5 | % |  |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 120 |  |  | 169 |  |  | 186 |  |  | 194 |  |  | 193 |  |  | 95.1 | % |  |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 112 |  |  | 163 |  |  | 187 |  |  | 188 |  |  | 90.8 | % |  |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 99 |  |  | 146 |  |  | 164 |  |  | 85.9 | % |  |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 100 |  |  | 144 |  |  | 67.0 | % |  |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 98 |  |  | 43.9 | % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 1,468 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2012 through 2021 |  | 258 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | (2) |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | $ | 256 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
|  | Year 1 |  | Year 2 |  | Year 3 |  | Year 4 |  | Year 5 |  | Year 6 |  | Year 7 |  | Year 8 |  | Year 9 |  | Year 10 |  |  |  |
Annual |  | 52.1 | % |  | 26.5 | % |  | 9.4 | % |  | 3.2 | % |  | 2.2 | % |  | 1.5 | % |  | 1.0 | % |  | (0.8 | %) |  | (0.4 | %) |  | — | % |  |  |  |
Cumulative |  | 52.1 | % |  | 78.6 | % |  | 88.0 | % |  | 91.2 | % |  | 93.4 | % |  | 94.9 | % |  | 95.9 | % |  | 95.1 | % |  | 94.7 | % |  | 94.7 | % |  |  |  |
(a)Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2021).
Other specialty |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(Dollars in Millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  | As of December 31, 2021
|  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  | Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims |  | Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (a)
Accident Year |  | 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  |
2012 |  | $ | 42 |  |  | $ | 40 |  |  | $ | 39 |  |  | $ | 40 |  |  | $ | 41 |  |  | $ | 39 |  |  | $ | 39 |  |  | $ | 36 |  |  | $ | 37 |  |  | $ | 38 |  |  | $ | 2 |  |  | — |
2013 |  |  |  | 46 |  |  | 47 |  |  | 46 |  |  | 47 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 53 |  |  | 58 |  |  | 58 |  |  | 60 |  |  | 1 |  |  | — |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 58 |  |  | 57 |  |  | 59 |  |  | 59 |  |  | 60 |  |  | 61 |  |  | 64 |  |  | 66 |  |  | 7 |  |  | — |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 59 |  |  | 60 |  |  | 63 |  |  | 66 |  |  | 76 |  |  | 82 |  |  | 84 |  |  | 7 |  |  | — |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 61 |  |  | 61 |  |  | 65 |  |  | 71 |  |  | 76 |  |  | 77 |  |  | 13 |  |  | — |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 63 |  |  | 65 |  |  | 70 |  |  | 81 |  |  | 88 |  |  | 12 |  |  | — |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 86 |  |  | 90 |  |  | 92 |  |  | 94 |  |  | 35 |  |  | — |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 108 |  |  | 107 |  |  | 108 |  |  | 44 |  |  | — |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 122 |  |  | 117 |  |  | 80 |  |  | — |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 135 |  |  | 117 |  |  | — |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 867 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  |  |  |
Accident Year |  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
| 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | % (b) |  |
2012 |  | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 17 |  |  | $ | 21 |  |  | $ | 25 |  |  | $ | 28 |  |  | $ | 30 |  |  | $ | 30 |  |  | $ | 32 |  |  | $ | 33 |  |  | $ | 34 |  |  | 89.5 | % |  |
2013 |  |  |  | 7 |  |  | 16 |  |  | 22 |  |  | 34 |  |  | 37 |  |  | 44 |  |  | 51 |  |  | 53 |  |  | 57 |  |  | 95.0 | % |  |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 13 |  |  | 21 |  |  | 30 |  |  | 36 |  |  | 43 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 53 |  |  | 54 |  |  | 81.8 | % |  |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 10 |  |  | 26 |  |  | 31 |  |  | 50 |  |  | 62 |  |  | 69 |  |  | 75 |  |  | 89.3 | % |  |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 9 |  |  | 19 |  |  | 31 |  |  | 47 |  |  | 53 |  |  | 60 |  |  | 77.9 | % |  |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 10 |  |  | 19 |  |  | 30 |  |  | 52 |  |  | 63 |  |  | 71.6 | % |  |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 12 |  |  | 23 |  |  | 32 |  |  | 44 |  |  | 46.8 | % |  |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 9 |  |  | 24 |  |  | 49 |  |  | 45.4 | % |  |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 9 |  |  | 21 |  |  | 17.9 | % |  |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 8 |  |  | 5.9 | % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 465 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2012 through 2021 |  | 402 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | 32 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | $ | 434 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
|  | Year 1 |  | Year 2 |  | Year 3 |  | Year 4 |  | Year 5 |  | Year 6 |  | Year 7 |  | Year 8 |  | Year 9 |  | Year 10 |  |  |  |
Annual |  | 12.2 | % |  | 14.3 | % |  | 12.6 | % |  | 17.3 | % |  | 9.7 | % |  | 9.0 | % |  | 5.8 | % |  | 3.4 | % |  | 4.6 | % |  | 2.6 | % |  |  |  |
Cumulative |  | 12.2 | % |  | 26.5 | % |  | 39.1 | % |  | 56.4 | % |  | 66.1 | % |  | 75.1 | % |  | 80.9 | % |  | 84.3 | % |  | 88.9 | % |  | 91.5 | % |  |  |  |
(a)The amounts shown in Other specialty represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Accordingly, the liability for incurred claims and allocated LAE represents additional reserves held on claims counted in the tables provided for the other sub-segments (above). (b)Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2021).
Total Specialty Group |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(Dollars in Millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  | As of December 31, 2021
|  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  | Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims |  | Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year |  | 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  |
2012 |  | $ | 1,970 |  |  | $ | 1,952 |  |  | $ | 1,946 |  |  | $ | 1,947 |  |  | $ | 1,955 |  |  | $ | 1,941 |  |  | $ | 1,906 |  |  | $ | 1,886 |  |  | $ | 1,875 |  |  | $ | 1,866 |  |  | $ | 29 |  |  | 219,065 |
2013 |  |  |  | 2,036 |  |  | 2,011 |  |  | 2,000 |  |  | 1,996 |  |  | 2,000 |  |  | 1,982 |  |  | 1,969 |  |  | 1,956 |  |  | 1,948 |  |  | 42 |  |  | 222,550 |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 2,083 |  |  | 2,050 |  |  | 2,040 |  |  | 2,038 |  |  | 2,004 |  |  | 1,978 |  |  | 1,957 |  |  | 1,954 |  |  | 64 |  |  | 219,626 |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,114 |  |  | 2,047 |  |  | 2,041 |  |  | 2,038 |  |  | 2,022 |  |  | 2,013 |  |  | 2,003 |  |  | 85 |  |  | 230,625 |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,117 |  |  | 2,083 |  |  | 2,082 |  |  | 2,060 |  |  | 2,034 |  |  | 2,004 |  |  | 156 |  |  | 222,755 |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,375 |  |  | 2,348 |  |  | 2,329 |  |  | 2,301 |  |  | 2,269 |  |  | 239 |  |  | 246,470 |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,507 |  |  | 2,516 |  |  | 2,499 |  |  | 2,439 |  |  | 382 |  |  | 235,776 |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,721 |  |  | 2,674 |  |  | 2,672 |  |  | 574 |  |  | 253,599 |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,748 |  |  | 2,635 |  |  | 898 |  |  | 202,683 |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2,861 |  |  | 1,531 |  |  | 179,651 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 22,651 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance |  |  |  |
Accident Year |  | For the Years Ended (2012–2020 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
| 2012 |  | 2013 |  | 2014 |  | 2015 |  | 2016 |  | 2017 |  | 2018 |  | 2019 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | % (a) |  |
2012 |  | $ | 824 |  |  | $ | 1,214 |  |  | $ | 1,418 |  |  | $ | 1,579 |  |  | $ | 1,675 |  |  | $ | 1,735 |  |  | $ | 1,785 |  |  | $ | 1,788 |  |  | $ | 1,805 |  |  | $ | 1,815 |  |  | 97.3 | % |  |
2013 |  |  |  | 697 |  |  | 1,214 |  |  | 1,443 |  |  | 1,617 |  |  | 1,714 |  |  | 1,774 |  |  | 1,824 |  |  | 1,851 |  |  | 1,871 |  |  | 96.0 | % |  |
2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 594 |  |  | 1,174 |  |  | 1,422 |  |  | 1,588 |  |  | 1,705 |  |  | 1,773 |  |  | 1,812 |  |  | 1,847 |  |  | 94.5 | % |  |
2015 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 619 |  |  | 1,129 |  |  | 1,404 |  |  | 1,592 |  |  | 1,722 |  |  | 1,791 |  |  | 1,847 |  |  | 92.2 | % |  |
2016 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 577 |  |  | 1,099 |  |  | 1,350 |  |  | 1,539 |  |  | 1,662 |  |  | 1,750 |  |  | 87.3 | % |  |
2017 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 709 |  |  | 1,250 |  |  | 1,524 |  |  | 1,736 |  |  | 1,844 |  |  | 81.3 | % |  |
2018 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 730 |  |  | 1,337 |  |  | 1,606 |  |  | 1,807 |  |  | 74.1 | % |  |
2019 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 847 |  |  | 1,448 |  |  | 1,768 |  |  | 66.2 | % |  |
2020 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 758 |  |  | 1,337 |  |  | 50.7 | % |  |
2021 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 746 |  |  | 26.1 | % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total |  | $ | 16,632 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2012 through 2021 |  | 6,019 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | 436 |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  | Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE) |  | $ | 6,455 |  |  |  |  |
|  | Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance (Supplementary Information and Unaudited) |  |  |  |
|  | Year 1 |  | Year 2 |  | Year 3 |  | Year 4 |  | Year 5 |  | Year 6 |  | Year 7 |  | Year 8 |  | Year 9 |  | Year 10 |  |  |  |
Annual |  | 31.8 | % |  | 24.6 | % |  | 12.1 | % |  | 8.9 | % |  | 5.6 | % |  | 3.5 | % |  | 2.5 | % |  | 1.1 | % |  | 1.0 | % |  | 0.5 | % |  |  |  |
Cumulative |  | 31.8 | % |  | 56.4 | % |  | 68.5 | % |  | 77.4 | % |  | 83.0 | % |  | 86.5 | % |  | 89.0 | % |  | 90.1 | % |  | 91.1 | % |  | 91.6 | % |  |  |  |
(a)Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2021). Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs Included in property and casualty insurance commissions and other underwriting expenses in AFG’s Statement of Earnings is amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs of $580 million, $615 million, and $721 million in 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. Statutory Information AFG’s U.S.-based insurance subsidiaries are required to file financial statements with state insurance regulatory authorities prepared on an accounting basis prescribed or permitted by such authorities (statutory basis). Net earnings and capital and surplus on a statutory basis for the insurance subsidiaries were as follows (in millions):
| Net Earnings |  | Capital and Surplus
| 2021 |  | 2020 |  | 2019 |  | 2021 |  | 2020
Property and casualty companies | $ | 1,007 |  |  | $ | 481 |  |  | $ | 584 |  |  | $ | 4,221 |  |  | $ | 3,643 |
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (“NAIC”) model law for risk-based capital (“RBC”) applies to property and casualty insurance companies. RBC formulas determine the amount of capital that an insurance company needs so that it has an acceptable expectation of not becoming financially impaired. Companies below specific trigger points or ratios are subject to regulatory action. At December 31, 2021 and 2020, the capital ratios of all AFG insurance companies substantially exceeded the RBC requirements. AFG’s insurance companies did not use any prescribed or permitted statutory accounting practices that differed from the NAIC statutory accounting practices at December 31, 2021 or 2020. Payments of dividends by AFG’s insurance companies are subject to various state laws that limit the amount of dividends that can be paid. Under applicable restrictions, the maximum amount of dividends available to AFG in 2022 from its insurance subsidiaries without seeking regulatory approval is $843 million. Additional amounts of dividends require regulatory approval. Holding Company Dividends AFG declared and paid common stock dividends to shareholders totaling $2.38 billion, $336 million and $446 million in 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. Currently, there are no regulatory restrictions on AFG’s retained earnings or net earnings that materially impact its ability to pay dividends. Based on shareholders’ equity at December 31, 2021, AFG could pay dividends in excess of $1 billion without violating its most restrictive debt covenant. However, the payment of future dividends will be at the discretion of AFG’s Board of Directors and will be dependent on many factors including AFG’s financial condition and results of operations, the capital requirements of its insurance subsidiaries, and rating agency commitments. Reinsurance In the normal course of business, AFG cedes reinsurance to other companies to diversify risk and limit maximum loss arising from large claims. However, AFG remains liable to its insureds regardless of whether a reinsurer is able to meet its obligations. The following table shows (in millions) (i) amounts deducted from property and casualty written and earned premiums in connection with reinsurance ceded, (ii) written and earned premiums included in income for reinsurance assumed and (iii) reinsurance recoveries, which represent ceded losses and loss adjustment expenses.
| 2021 |  | 2020 |  | 2019
Direct premiums written | $ | 7,700 |  |  | $ | 6,862 |  |  | $ | 7,044 |
Reinsurance assumed | 246 |  |  | 225 |  |  | 255 |
Reinsurance ceded | (2,373) |  |  | (2,074) |  |  | (1,957) |
Net written premiums | $ | 5,573 |  |  | $ | 5,013 |  |  | $ | 5,342 |
Direct premiums earned | $ | 7,462 |  |  | $ | 6,846 |  |  | $ | 6,848 |
Reinsurance assumed | 249 |  |  | 237 |  |  | 226 |
Reinsurance ceded | (2,307) |  |  | (1,984) |  |  | (1,889) |
Net earned premiums | $ | 5,404 |  |  | $ | 5,099 |  |  | $ | 5,185 |
Reinsurance recoveries | $ | 1,478 |  |  | $ | 1,522 |  |  | $ | 1,404 |
AFG maintains supplemental fully collateralized reinsurance coverage up to 94% of $325 million for catastrophe losses in excess of $125 million of traditional catastrophe reinsurance through a catastrophe bond. AFG’s cost for this coverage is approximately $16 million per year. Recoveries from the catastrophe bond apply before calculating losses recoverable from this catastrophe excess of loss reinsurance. Recoverables from Reinsurers and Premiums Receivable See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Credit Losses on Financial Instruments,” for a discussion of guidance effective January 1, 2020, which impacts the accounting for expected credit losses of recoverables from reinsurers and premiums receivable. AFG reviews the allowance quarterly and makes adjustments as necessary to reflect changes in expected credit losses. Progressions of the allowance for expected credit losses are shown below (in millions):
| Recoverables from Reinsurers |  | Premiums Receivable
| 2021 |  | 2020 |  | 2021 |  | 2020
Balance at January 1 | $ | 6 |  |  | $ | 18 |  |  | $ | 10 |  |  | $ | 13 |
Impact of adoption of new accounting policy | — |  |  | (11) |  |  | — |  |  | (3) |
Provision for expected credit losses | 2 |  |  | — |  |  | (2) |  |  | 1 |
Write-offs charged against the allowance | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | (1) |
Businesses disposed | — |  |  | (1) |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Balance at December 31 | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 6 |  |  | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 10 |
Prior to the new guidance, AFG recorded a net expense reduction against the allowance for uncollectible reinsurance recoverables of less than $1 million in 2019.

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- Definition The entire disclosure for the types of coverages and products sold, and the assets, obligations, recorded liabilities, revenues and expenses arising therefrom, and the amounts of and methodologies and assumptions used in determining the amounts of such items. + References Reference 1: http://fasb.org/us-gaap/role/ref/legacyRef -Publisher FASB -Name Accounting Standards Codification -Topic 944 -URI http://asc.fasb.org/topic&trid=2303980 + Details
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