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Investments | 9 Months Ended
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Sep. 30, 2023
Investments, Debt and Equity Securities [Abstract] |
Investments | Investments Available for sale fixed maturities at September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, consisted of the following (in millions):
| Amortized Cost |  | Allowance for Expected Credit Losses |  | Gross Unrealized |  | Net Unrealized |  | Fair Value
Gains |  | Losses
September 30, 2023 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Fixed maturities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. government and government agencies | $ | 240 |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | (11) |  |  | $ | (11) |  |  | $ | 229 |
States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 986 |  |  | — |  |  | 1 |  |  | (76) |  |  | (75) |  |  | 911 |
Foreign government | 228 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | (10) |  |  | (10) |  |  | 218 |
Residential MBS | 1,816 |  |  | 3 |  |  | 18 |  |  | (212) |  |  | (194) |  |  | 1,619 |
Commercial MBS | 78 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | (2) |  |  | (2) |  |  | 76 |
Collateralized loan obligations | 1,756 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 8 |  |  | (39) |  |  | (31) |  |  | 1,723 |
Other asset-backed securities | 2,443 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 2 |  |  | (161) |  |  | (159) |  |  | 2,277 |
Corporate and other | 3,063 |  |  | 8 |  |  | 3 |  |  | (180) |  |  | (177) |  |  | 2,878 |
Total fixed maturities | $ | 10,610 |  |  | $ | 20 |  |  | $ | 32 |  |  | $ | (691) |  |  | $ | (659) |  |  | $ | 9,931 |
December 31, 2022 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Fixed maturities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. government and government agencies | $ | 233 |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | (14) |  |  | $ | (14) |  |  | $ | 219 |
States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 1,234 |  |  | — |  |  | 3 |  |  | (51) |  |  | (48) |  |  | 1,186 |
Foreign government | 240 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | (14) |  |  | (14) |  |  | 226 |
Residential MBS | 1,757 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 23 |  |  | (180) |  |  | (157) |  |  | 1,598 |
Commercial MBS | 88 |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | (3) |  |  | (3) |  |  | 85 |
Collateralized loan obligations | 1,988 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 1 |  |  | (67) |  |  | (66) |  |  | 1,921 |
Other asset-backed securities | 2,435 |  |  | 7 |  |  | 1 |  |  | (184) |  |  | (183) |  |  | 2,245 |
Corporate and other | 2,761 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 11 |  |  | (156) |  |  | (145) |  |  | 2,615 |
Total fixed maturities | $ | 10,736 |  |  | $ | 11 |  |  | $ | 39 |  |  | $ | (669) |  |  | $ | (630) |  |  | $ | 10,095 |
Equity securities which are reported at fair value with holding gains and losses recognized in net earnings, consisted of the following at September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022 (in millions):
| September 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022
| Actual Cost |  | Fair Value |  | Fair Value Over (Under) Cost |  | Actual Cost |  | Fair Value |  | Fair Value Over (Under) Cost
Common stocks | $ | 562 |  |  | $ | 588 |  |  | $ | 26 |  |  | $ | 556 |  |  | $ | 553 |  |  | $ | (3) |
Perpetual preferred stocks | 419 |  |  | 419 |  |  | — |  |  | 436 |  |  | 457 |  |  | 21 |
Total equity securities carried at fair value | $ | 981 |  |  | $ | 1,007 |  |  | $ | 26 |  |  | $ | 992 |  |  | $ | 1,010 |  |  | $ | 18 |
The following table shows the carrying value and net investment income from investments accounted for using the equity method (in millions):
|  |  |  |  | Net Investment Income
| Carrying Value |  | Three months ended September 30, |  | Nine months ended September 30,
| September 30, 2023 |  | December 31, 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
Real estate-related investments (*) | $ | 1,321 |  |  | $ | 1,229 |  |  | $ | 11 |  |  | $ | 40 |  |  | $ | 86 |  |  | $ | 209 |
Private equity | 451 |  |  | 438 |  |  | 5 |  |  | (2) |  |  | 12 |  |  | 36 |
Private debt | 35 |  |  | 33 |  |  | 1 |  |  | (1) |  |  | 4 |  |  | 1 |
Total investments accounted for using the equity method | $ | 1,807 |  |  | $ | 1,700 |  |  | $ | 17 |  |  | $ | 37 |  |  | $ | 102 |  |  | $ | 246 |
(*)92% of the carrying value relates to underlying investments in multi-family properties at both September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022. The earnings (losses) from these investments are generally reported on a quarter lag due to the timing required to obtain the necessary information from the funds. AFG regularly reviews and discusses fund performance with the fund managers to corroborate the reasonableness of the underlying reported asset values and to assess whether any events have occurred within the lag period that may materially affect the valuation of these investments. With respect to partnerships and similar investments, AFG had unfunded commitments of $437 million and $396 million as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively. The following table shows gross unrealized losses (dollars in millions) on available for sale fixed maturities by investment category and length of time that individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position at the following balance sheet dates.
| Less Than Twelve Months |  | Twelve Months or More
Unrealized Loss |  | Fair Value |  | Fair Value as % of Cost |  | Unrealized Loss |  | Fair Value |  | Fair Value as % of Cost
September 30, 2023 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Fixed maturities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. government and government agencies | $ | — |  |  | $ | 36 |  |  | 100 | % |  | $ | (11) |  |  | $ | 192 |  |  | 95 | %
States, municipalities and political subdivisions | (12) |  |  | 232 |  |  | 95 | % |  | (64) |  |  | 565 |  |  | 90 | %
Foreign government | — |  |  | 7 |  |  | 100 | % |  | (10) |  |  | 211 |  |  | 95 | %
Residential MBS | (7) |  |  | 318 |  |  | 98 | % |  | (205) |  |  | 1,121 |  |  | 85 | %
Commercial MBS | — |  |  | — |  |  | — | % |  | (2) |  |  | 63 |  |  | 97 | %
Collateralized loan obligations | — |  |  | 39 |  |  | 100 | % |  | (39) |  |  | 1,026 |  |  | 96 | %
Other asset-backed securities | (6) |  |  | 402 |  |  | 99 | % |  | (155) |  |  | 1,677 |  |  | 92 | %
Corporate and other | (34) |  |  | 1,085 |  |  | 97 | % |  | (146) |  |  | 1,473 |  |  | 91 | %
Total fixed maturities | $ | (59) |  |  | $ | 2,119 |  |  | 97 | % |  | $ | (632) |  |  | $ | 6,328 |  |  | 91 | %
December 31, 2022 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Fixed maturities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
U.S. government and government agencies | $ | (4) |  |  | $ | 111 |  |  | 97 | % |  | $ | (10) |  |  | $ | 107 |  |  | 91 | %
States, municipalities and political subdivisions | (50) |  |  | 967 |  |  | 95 | % |  | (1) |  |  | 15 |  |  | 94 | %
Foreign government | (5) |  |  | 90 |  |  | 95 | % |  | (9) |  |  | 134 |  |  | 94 | %
Residential MBS | (115) |  |  | 1,078 |  |  | 90 | % |  | (65) |  |  | 315 |  |  | 83 | %
Commercial MBS | (2) |  |  | 44 |  |  | 96 | % |  | (1) |  |  | 33 |  |  | 97 | %
Collateralized loan obligations | (44) |  |  | 1,224 |  |  | 97 | % |  | (23) |  |  | 587 |  |  | 96 | %
Other asset-backed securities | (100) |  |  | 1,361 |  |  | 93 | % |  | (84) |  |  | 740 |  |  | 90 | %
Corporate and other | (105) |  |  | 1,665 |  |  | 94 | % |  | (51) |  |  | 413 |  |  | 89 | %
Total fixed maturities | $ | (425) |  |  | $ | 6,540 |  |  | 94 | % |  | $ | (244) |  |  | $ | 2,344 |  |  | 91 | %
At September 30, 2023, the gross unrealized losses on fixed maturities of $691 million relate to approximately 1,900 securities. Investment grade securities (as determined by nationally recognized rating agencies) represented approximately 95% of the gross unrealized loss and 95% of the fair value of securities with unrealized losses. To evaluate fixed maturities for expected credit losses (impairment), management considers whether the unrealized loss is credit-driven or a result of changes in market interest rates, the extent to which fair value is less than cost basis, historical operating, balance sheet and cash flow data from the issuer, third party research and communications with industry specialists and discussions with issuer management. AFG analyzes its MBS for expected credit losses (impairment) each quarter based upon expected future cash flows. Management estimates expected future cash flows based upon its knowledge of the MBS market, cash flow projections (which reflect loan to collateral values, subordination, vintage and geographic concentration) received from independent sources, implied cash flows inherent in security ratings and analysis of historical payment data. Management believes AFG will recover its cost basis (net of any allowance) in the securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at September 30, 2023. A progression of the allowance for expected credit losses on available for sale fixed maturity securities is shown below (in millions):
| Structured Securities (*) |  | Corporate and Other |  | Total
Balance at June 30, 2023 | $ | 11 |  |  | $ | 5 |  |  | $ | 16 |
Provision for expected credit losses on securities with no previous allowance | — |  |  | 3 |  |  | 3 |
Additions (reductions) to previously recognized expected credit losses | 1 |  |  | — |  |  | 1 |
Reductions due to sales or redemptions | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Balance at September 30, 2023 | $ | 12 |  |  | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 20 |
Balance at June 30, 2022 | $ | 7 |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | 7 |
Provision for expected credit losses on securities with no previous allowance | 2 |  |  | — |  |  | 2 |
Additions (reductions) to previously recognized expected credit losses | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Reductions due to sales or redemptions | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Balance at September 30, 2022 | $ | 9 |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | 9 |
Balance at January 1, 2023 | $ | 10 |  |  | $ | 1 |  |  | $ | 11 |
Provision for expected credit losses on securities with no previous allowance | 1 |  |  | 8 |  |  | 9 |
Additions (reductions) to previously recognized expected credit losses | 1 |  |  | (1) |  |  | — |
Reductions due to sales or redemptions | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Balance at September 30, 2023 | $ | 12 |  |  | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 20 |
Balance at January 1, 2022 | $ | 8 |  |  | $ | 1 |  |  | $ | 9 |
Provision for expected credit losses on securities with no previous allowance | 3 |  |  | — |  |  | 3 |
Additions (reductions) to previously recognized expected credit losses | (2) |  |  | — |  |  | (2) |
Reductions due to sales or redemptions | — |  |  | (1) |  |  | (1) |
Balance at September 30, 2022 | $ | 9 |  |  | $ | — |  |  | $ | 9 |
(*)Includes mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations and other asset-backed securities. In the first nine months of 2023 and 2022, AFG did not purchase any securities with expected credit losses. The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG’s available for sale fixed maturities as of September 30, 2023 (dollars in millions). Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.
| Amortized |  | Fair Value
Cost, net (*) |  | Amount |  | %
Maturity |  |  |  |  |
One year or less | $ | 413 |  |  | $ | 404 |  |  | 4 | %
After one year through five years | 2,649 |  |  | 2,495 |  |  | 25 | %
After five years through ten years | 1,099 |  |  | 1,022 |  |  | 11 | %
After ten years | 348 |  |  | 315 |  |  | 3 | %
| 4,509 |  |  | 4,236 |  |  | 43 | %
Collateralized loan obligations and other ABS (average life of approximately 3 years) | 4,190 |  |  | 4,000 |  |  | 40 | %
MBS (average life of approximately 6.5 years) | 1,891 |  |  | 1,695 |  |  | 17 | %
Total | $ | 10,590 |  |  | $ | 9,931 |  |  | 100 | %
(*)Amortized cost, net of allowance for expected credit losses. Certain risks are inherent in fixed maturity securities, including loss upon default, price volatility in reaction to changes in interest rates, and general market factors and risks associated with reinvestment of proceeds due to prepayments or redemptions in a period of declining interest rates. There were no investments in individual issuers that exceeded 10% of shareholders’ equity at September 30, 2023 or December 31, 2022. Net Investment Income The following table shows (in millions) investment income earned and investment expenses incurred.
| Three months ended September 30, |  | Nine months ended September 30,
| 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
Investment income: |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Fixed maturities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Interest and amortization | $ | 126 |  |  | $ | 98 |  |  | $ | 369 |  |  | $ | 263 |
Change in fair value (a) | (11) |  |  | — |  |  | (1) |  |  | — |
Equity securities: |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Dividends | 8 |  |  | 9 |  |  | 26 |  |  | 24 |
Change in fair value (b) | 7 |  |  | (6) |  |  | 36 |  |  | (8) |
Equity in earnings of partnerships and similar investments | 17 |  |  | 37 |  |  | 102 |  |  | 246 |
Other | 24 |  |  | 17 |  |  | 64 |  |  | 37 |
Gross investment income | 171 |  |  | 155 |  |  | 596 |  |  | 562 |
Investment expenses | (3) |  |  | (4) |  |  | (13) |  |  | (13) |
Net investment income | $ | 168 |  |  | $ | 151 |  |  | $ | 583 |  |  | $ | 549 |
(a)The change in the fair value of fixed maturities classified as trading and derivatives embedded in convertible fixed maturities related to limited partnerships and similar investments. (b)Although the change in the fair value of the majority of AFG’s equity securities is recorded in realized gains (losses) on securities, AFG records holding gains and losses in net investment income on limited partnerships and similar investments that do not qualify for equity method accounting and related investments. Realized gains (losses) and changes in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) included in AOCI related to fixed maturity securities are summarized as follows (in millions):
| Three months ended September 30, 2023 |  | Three months ended September 30, 2022
| Realized gains (losses) |  |  |  | Realized gains (losses) |  |
| Before Impairments |  | Impairment Allowance |  | Total |  | Change in Unrealized |  | Before Impairments |  | Impairment Allowance |  | Total |  | Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities | $ | (7) |  |  | $ | (4) |  |  | $ | (11) |  |  | $ | (72) |  |  | $ | (6) |  |  | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | (8) |  |  | $ | (288) |
Equity securities | (8) |  |  | — |  |  | (8) |  |  | — |  |  | (27) |  |  | — |  |  | (27) |  |  | — |
Mortgage loans and other investments | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Total pretax | (15) |  |  | (4) |  |  | (19) |  |  | (72) |  |  | (33) |  |  | (2) |  |  | (35) |  |  | (288) |
Tax effects | 3 |  |  | 1 |  |  | 4 |  |  | 15 |  |  | 7 |  |  | — |  |  | 7 |  |  | 60 |
Net of tax | $ | (12) |  |  | $ | (3) |  |  | $ | (15) |  |  | $ | (57) |  |  | $ | (26) |  |  | $ | (2) |  |  | $ | (28) |  |  | $ | (228) |
| Nine months ended September 30, 2023 |  | Nine months ended September 30, 2022
| Realized gains (losses) |  |  |  | Realized gains (losses) |  |
| Before Impairments |  | Impairment Allowance |  | Total |  | Change in Unrealized |  | Before Impairments |  | Impairment Allowance |  | Total |  | Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities | $ | (35) |  |  | $ | (9) |  |  | $ | (44) |  |  | $ | (29) |  |  | $ | (20) |  |  | $ | (1) |  |  | $ | (21) |  |  | $ | (874) |
Equity securities | (23) |  |  | — |  |  | (23) |  |  | — |  |  | (122) |  |  | — |  |  | (122) |  |  | — |
Mortgage loans and other investments | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |  |  | — |
Total pretax | (58) |  |  | (9) |  |  | (67) |  |  | (29) |  |  | (142) |  |  | (1) |  |  | (143) |  |  | (874) |
Tax effects | 12 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 14 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 30 |  |  | — |  |  | 30 |  |  | 184 |
Net of tax | $ | (46) |  |  | $ | (7) |  |  | $ | (53) |  |  | $ | (24) |  |  | $ | (112) |  |  | $ | (1) |  |  | $ | (113) |  |  | $ | (690) |
All equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are carried at fair value through net earnings. AFG recorded net holding gains (losses) on equity securities during the third quarter and first nine months of 2023 and 2022 on securities that were still owned at September 30, 2023 and September 30, 2022 as follows (in millions):
| Three months ended September 30, |  | Nine months ended September 30,
| 2023 |  | 2022 |  | 2023 |  | 2022
Included in realized gains (losses) | $ | (8) |  |  | $ | (26) |  |  | $ | (31) |  |  | $ | (119) |
Included in net investment income | 7 |  |  | (7) |  |  | 36 |  |  | (4) |
| $ | (1) |  |  | $ | (33) |  |  | $ | 5 |  |  | $ | (123) |
Gross realized gains and losses (excluding changes in impairment allowance and mark-to-market of derivatives) on available for sale fixed maturity investment transactions consisted of the following (in millions):
| Nine months ended September 30,
2023 |  | 2022
Gross gains | $ | 2 |  |  | $ | 2 |
Gross losses | (33) |  |  | (11) |

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