Exhibit 99.1
Q4 2008 Conference Call Script
January 21, 2009 1:00 p.m.
DAN GREENFIELD:
Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to Allegheny Technologies earnings
conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2008.
This conference call is being broadcast live on our website at
alleghenytechnologies.com and on CCBN.com. Members of the media have been
invited to listen to this call.
Participating in the conference call today are Pat Hassey, Chairman, President
and Chief Executive Officer, and Rich Harshman, Executive Vice President,
Finance and Chief Financial Officer.
After some initial comments, we will ask for questions. During the question
and answer session, please limit yourself to two questions to be considerate
of others on the line.
Please note that all forward-looking statements made this afternoon are
subject to various assumptions and caveats as noted in the earnings release.
Actual results may differ materially.
Here is Pat Hassey.
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PAT HASSEY:
Thanks, Dan, and thanks to everyone for joining us today.
ATI earned
$5.67 per share with revenues totaling $5.3 billion in 2008.
It was the second best year for revenues and earnings per share in the
Companys history. This was accomplished with global economic conditions
turning down sharply in the fourth quarter, resulting in deteriorating
demand in some key market segments for ATI.
Although ATI is not immune to the global downturn, our financial position
remains strong. ATI has a strong balance sheet, a strong cash flow, good
liquidity, and we expect to continue to generate significant cash flow, even
with reduced earnings.
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At the end of 2008, we had $470 million in cash on-hand. |
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We have no borrowings under our $400 million domestic credit
facility. |
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We have no significant near-term debt maturities. |
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Net debt to total capitalization was only 2%. |
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Managed working capital ended 2008 at $1.4 billion with receivables
totaling over $530 million. |
Our Financial metrics remained and are strong:
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Return on capital employed was 21.8%. Excluding capital being
invested in strategic projects that are not yet completed, ROC was
26.7%. |
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Return on stockholders equity was a respectable 27%. |
So, overall, we delivered a good year in 2008.
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Now, getting right to our view of 2009:
The combination of three major events:
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The continuing credit crisis leading to frozen new
project lending in some of our markets, |
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The global recession and its resulting new
circumstances of uncertainty and lack of forward visibility for
customers, and |
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The short-term impact of the precipitous drop of
primary metal prices during the
4th quarter 2008, |
are expected to negatively impact ATI earnings in the first quarter of 2009.
These three events have already resulted in challenging conditions in some of
our core markets.
We have limited short-term visibility, but will give a view of seeing through
the fog of these current conditions by commenting on the plusses and the
minuses for ATI as we see them today.
The first point to remember is that ATI has diversified end products, multiple
alloys and product forms, and end-markets that have a global reach. 28% of
our revenues came from outside the U.S. last year.
Secondly, we have long-term-agreements in place for our core markets and
products airframe, jet engines, industrial titanium, electrical generation
and distribution, and medical as well as other requirements contracts for
project work that is continuing to completion in 2009.
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Thirdly, as compared to the last downturn of 2001 through 2003, we are far
better positioned with our core markets and products, have taken over $600
million in real costs out of our business, have a much more cost effective and
flexible labor environment in which to operate, have installed and are
continuing to invest in modern equipment and new capabilities, are entering
new and profitable market segments globally, and have one of the strongest
balance sheets and the most liquidity in our history.
All that
said in 2009, ATI is being impacted by more competitive pricing as well as lower volumes for
many of product lines, especially for our commodity stainless products. The
low volume of stainless products has a direct influence in pacing our
operations in our Flat-Rolled Products segment.
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Moving to our major markets:
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Aerospace remains reasonably good. We expect 2009 demand to be
below demand levels in 2008. Boeing, Airbus, and the regional jet
manufacturers still have very large, multiple years of production
backlogs. Again, in 2008, more planes were ordered than delivered,
continuing the steady build rate projections for most existing models.
We believe that build rates will flatten out for 2009 and 2010. The
supply chain is adjusting to the revised aircraft build schedules and
new model push outs. There are now nearly 1400 aircraft orders for the
Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 Extra Wide Body with the first aircraft yet
to be delivered these are the titanium intensive new generation
aircraft that are now expected to begin deliveries in 2010. |
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Jet engine demand for our titanium alloys
and nickel-based superalloys is also down for 2009, compared to
the strong demand we saw in 2008. Older aircraft are being
retired as the number of flights has been reduced, but new
aircraft orders, as reported, have in aggregate remained in the
airframers schedules. |
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Although we expect airframe titanium
demand to be down in 2009 compared to record shipments of 2008,
primarily due to the push out of the 787 program, we are having
success selling more of our diversified products including
titanium to more customers for airframe applications, through
our ATI Aerospace global marketing efforts. |
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The new ATI Defense market sector team has now existed for one
year. It has been successful, enabling organic growth. The defense
hardware market remains strong for armored vehicles. We have made
inroads into this market which present considerable sales potential
for our titanium products and our other specialty metals. |
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In the Chemical Processing Industry, several large projects that
are funded are expected to be completed in 2009. We are watching this
market closely, and are concerned that some new projects may be
delayed until the frozen credit market issues are resolved. |
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Market conditions are mixed in the oil and gas market. |
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Large offshore projects and transmission
pipeline jobs in several areas of the world are continuing to
generate good to excellent demand. |
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While down-hole demand has softened due
to reduced drilling, this market still has a reasonable level of
demand for our specialty products. |
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Unconventional energy projects, such as
tar sands, that rely on a higher crude price to be economical are
being delayed or canceled. |
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Market conditions in electrical energy generation and distribution
are also mixed, but still represent a net positive for ATI. |
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Demand under our grain-oriented
electrical steel long-term agreements remains steady for the
power distribution grid, and we are solidly booked for the year. |
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Demand for many of our products is
growing from the nuclear energy market, especially for our
zirconium and hafnium. Other product forms would come with new
reactors being permitted. |
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We expect demand from pollution control
equipment manufacturers for coal-fired power plants to improve
due to legislation and lower raw materials prices for our
products. |
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We are working on several opportunities
that have good growth potential in the area of solar energy. On
the other hand, demand for wind energy components has abruptly
disappeared due to project financing issues. |
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Demand has high single digit steady growth for our products
throughout the year. |
These markets aerospace and defense, global infrastructure, and
medical accounted for over 70% of ATI sales in 2008. These are the
markets that have been driving our performance for the last several
years.
We await the results of the many economic stimulus packages being
considered in the U.S. and other areas of the world. We expect these
packages to increase spending on infrastructure, alternative energy,
and energy efficiency. Therefore, we believe ATIs key growth
markets could have additional potential over the intermediate term
that we are not currently planning for, as I stated in my earlier
comments of reduced shipments for 2009.
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We had a severe drop in orders and
shipments in the fourth quarter. Demand from markets related to
consumer spending automotive, appliances, residential
construction continues to be way down. Service center
inventories are very low. We expect these customers to order on
an as-needed basis with only limited inventory replenishment.
Recently, we have seen our business at least stabilizing at these
lower levels rather than declining. |
A note about our flat-rolled products business: In this difficult time, we
are operating with about 80% of our workforce, depending on our weekly
production schedules. From a glass-half empty/glass-half full
standpoint,
that means approximately 20% are temporarily on layoff at a given time.
This is possible due to the transformation and flexibility of our
flat-rolled products business that in scheduling, we can operate as
efficiently as possible.
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We have taken actions to adjust our production schedules to current demand,
preserve cash and maintain our liquidity. We have targeted at least $150
million of new gross cost reductions for 2009. We are focused on improving
inventory turns to generate additional cash from managed working capital, as
well as further limit our exposure to volatile raw materials costs. And, again
in 2009, we remain focused on continuing to improve our operations and overall
cost structures during this downturn in business.
To help ensure that ATI remains solidly profitable in 2009, as well as become a
stronger competitor and company, each of our businesses has further contingency
plans in place that can be implemented, if current conditions decline.
All businesses are targeted to:
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Generate positive cash flow |
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Generate an acceptable minimum level of operating
profit |
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Continue to position the business to be more
competitive |
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Continue with plans to enter new and different key
markets |
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Develop new products or other differentiation |
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On the raw material side of the business:
We saw an unprecedented drop in raw materials costs during the last three
months of 2008. Some examples comparing the average price in September with
the average price in December:
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Nickel was down 46% |
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Chromium was down 51% |
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Molybdenum was down 71% |
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Iron units were down 59% |
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And, titanium scrap was down 15% |
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As a result, the surcharges applied to selling prices will
be significantly down in the first quarter 2009. For example, the
surcharge for Type 304 stainless in the U.S. will be down over $1.00 per
pound to $0.41 in February, compared to $1.42 per pound in September 2008. |
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This severe drop in raw materials costs in late 2008
represents a significant mismatch between raw materials costs and
surcharge selling prices due to our manufacturing cycle times between melt
and finishing. |
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We expect this mismatch to negatively impact our first
quarter 2009 results by approximately $70 million, pretax. This is a major
one time expense to first quarter results. |
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This is mostly due to the substantially reduced Flat-Rolled
Products segment volumes experienced in the fourth quarter 2008, where the
higher raw material costs would normally have shipped against
appropriately higher surcharge pricing. Unfortunately, since we didnt
have the volume in the fourth quarter, these costs will now carryover to
the first quarter 2009 shipments creating a $70 million pre-tax, one time
hit, to earnings. |
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Unlike in the fourth quarter 2008, this mismatch is not
expected to be offset by a significant LIFO benefit. Most of the impact
will be in our Flat-Rolled Products segment, and we do not believe that
this issue will have a significant impact beyond the first quarter. |
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Now, moving to pension expense:
Pension expense will be the second headwind to earnings in 2009. Primarily as
a result of the historic negative returns in the equity and fixed income
markets in 2008, we expect 2009 pretax retirement benefit expense of
approximately $140 million, or nearly $35 million per quarter. This expense
includes approximately $119 million of pension expense and $21 million of other
post retirement benefit (OPEB) expense. As a comparison, in 2008 we had
pension income of $12 million and OPEB expense of $20 million. The 2009
pension expense is non-cash.
As of December 31, 2008, our U.S. defined benefit pension plan was
approximately 83% funded compared with 111% funded at the end of 2007.
As a result of the challenging economy, the significantly higher pension
expense, and the one time raw materials/surcharge mismatch in the first
quarter, we expect first quarter results to be at, or near, breakeven.
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We continued to make progress on our capital investments which are building ATI
into a strong world competitor with unsurpassed manufacturing capabilities,
positioned for long-term growth. We invested nearly $516 million in 2008,
which brings total self-funded capital expenditures and asset acquisitions to
$1.3 billion over the past 4 years.
We currently expect 2009 self-funded capital expenditures of $450 million.
This is lower than our previous expectation for 2009 of up to $600 million as
we are adjusting the timing of our projects in light of the challenging market
environment. We are committed to self-fund these projects and can further
adjust the timing of any project as appropriate to the business conditions.
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Our premium titanium sponge facility in Utah is on a revised
schedule and is expected to begin in production during the third
quarter 2009. |
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Our titanium and superalloy forging facility in North Carolina
remains on schedule and is expected to begin operation in the third
quarter 2009. This project allows us to produce new products and is
expected to provide considerable cost savings as well as new
capabilities to our customers. |
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Our specialty and grain-oriented electrical steel melt shop
consolidation and upgrade is progressing as scheduled with
considerable cost reductions from this project expected beginning in
2010. |
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We are currently working on the engineering, permitting, land and
site preparation for the Flat-Rolled Hot Rolling and Processing
facility. |
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These are extraordinary times... difficult, challenging, industry changing.
We intend to use these challenging market conditions to continue to positively
differentiate ATI as a uniquely positioned, diversified, technology-driven
global specialty metals producer.
We will make the company stronger and better positioned with unsurpassed
manufacturing and technology value for our customers.
We will
see through the fog of uncertainty and risk, deploy and execute our
plans to effectively, compete, operate, and navigate the recession for as long
as it lasts, while looking to position ATI for long-term success where
opportunities arise.
We will adjust to market conditions, and be prepared with contingency plans
that can be implemented if current conditions decline further, or begin to
improve.
ATI is a globally focused, high-value specialty metals company. We have a
strong cash position, strong cash flow, and good liquidity. We can self-fund
our capital investments for unsurpassed manufacturing to compete globally for
the long-run and continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and good
liquidity.
Our goal is to come out of the recession an even stronger and better
company.
Operator, may we have the first question, please.
Q&A Portion of Conference Call
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Dan Greenfield:
Thank you, Pat. And thanks to all the listeners for joining us this
afternoon. As always, news releases may be obtained by email and are
available on our website, www.alleghenytechnologies.com. Also a
rebroadcast of this conference call is available on our website. That
concludes our conference call.
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