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Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
 12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Liability for Future Policy Benefits and Unpaid Claims and Claims Adjustment Expense [Abstract]  
Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending reserve balances for losses and loss adjustment expenses ("LAE") for the years ended December 31:
(In thousands)202220212020
Reserve for losses and LAE at beginning of year$407,445 $374,941 $69,362 
Less: Reinsurance recoverables25,940 19,061 71 
Net reserve for losses and LAE at beginning of year381,505 355,880 69,291 
Add provision for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance, occurring in:   
Current year99,372 97,256 317,516 
Prior years(274,076)(66,199)(16,223)
Net incurred losses and LAE during the current year(174,704)31,057 301,293 
Deduct payments for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance, occurring in:   
Current year224 388 1,018 
Prior years4,731 5,044 13,686 
Net loss and LAE payments during the current year4,955 5,432 14,704 
Net reserve for losses and LAE at end of year201,846 381,505 355,880 
Plus: Reinsurance recoverables14,618 25,940 19,061 
Reserve for losses and LAE at end of year$216,464 $407,445 $374,941 

For the year ended December 31, 2022, $4.7 million was paid for incurred claims and claim adjustment expenses attributable to insured events of prior years. There has been a $274.1 million favorable prior year development during the year ended December 31, 2022. Reserves remaining as of December 31, 2022 for prior years are $102.7 million as a result of re-estimation of unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. For the year ended December 31, 2021, $5.0 million was paid for incurred claims and claim adjustment expenses attributable to insured events of prior years. There was a $66.2 million favorable prior year development during the year ended December 31, 2021. Reserves remaining as of December 31, 2021 for prior years were $284.6 million as a result of re-estimation of unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. In both periods, the favorable prior years' loss development was the result of a re-estimation of amounts ultimately to be paid on prior year defaults in the default inventory, including the impact of previously identified defaults that cured. Original estimates are increased or decreased as additional information becomes known regarding individual claims.

Due to business restrictions, stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions initially implemented in March 2020 as a result of COVID-19, unemployment in the United States increased significantly in the second quarter of 2020, declining during the second half of 2020 and through 2022. As unemployment is one of the most common reasons for borrowers to default on their mortgage, the increase in unemployment has increased the number of delinquencies on the mortgages that we insure and has the potential to increase claim frequencies on defaults.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States government enacted a number of policies to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy and relief to those affected by this global disaster. Specifically, mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums were instituted by Federal legislation along with actions taken by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (“FHFA”), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (collectively the “GSEs”). The mortgage forbearance plans provide for eligible homeowners who were adversely impacted by COVID-19 to temporarily reduce or suspend their mortgage payments for up to 18 months for loans in an active COVID-19-related forbearance program as of February 28, 2021. For borrowers that have the ability to begin to pay their mortgage at the end of the forbearance period, we expect that mortgage servicers will work with them to modify their loans at which time the mortgage will be removed from delinquency status. We believe that the forbearance process could have a favorable effect on the frequency of claims that we ultimately pay.

Based on the fiscal stimulus, forbearance programs and the foreclosure moratoriums put in place and the credit characteristics of the defaulted loans, we expected the ultimate number of Early COVID Defaults that result in claims would be less than our historical default-to-claim experience. Accordingly, we recorded a reserve equal to approximately 7% of the initial risk in force for the Early COVID Defaults. The reserve for the Early COVID Defaults had not been adjusted as of December 31, 2021. As of March 31, 2022, the defaulted loans reported to us in the second and third quarters of 2020 had reached the end of their forbearance periods. During the first quarter of 2022, the Early COVID Defaults cured at elevated levels, and the
cumulative cure rate for the Early COVID Defaults at March 31, 2022 exceeded our initial estimated cure rate implied by our 7% estimate of ultimate loss for these defaults. Based on cure activity through March 31, 2022 and our expectations for future cure activity, we lowered our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults from 7% to 4% of the initial risk in force. During the three months ended June 30, 2022, Early COVID Defaults cured at levels that exceeded our estimate as of March 31, 2022, and we further lowered our estimate of loss for these defaults as of June 30, 2022 to 2% of the initial risk in force. These revisions to our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults resulted in a benefit recorded to the provision for losses of $164.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2022. As of December 31, 2022, approximately 99% of the Early COVID Defaults had cured. Due to the level of Early COVID Defaults remaining in the default inventory, during the third quarter, we resumed reserving for the Early COVID Defaults using our normal reserve methodology. The transition of defaults to foreclosure or claim has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, the level of defaults in the default inventory that have missed twelve or more payments is above pre-pandemic levels.

The economy in the United States is currently experiencing elevated levels of consumer price inflation. The Federal Reserve has increased the target federal funds rate several times during 2022 in an effort to reduce consumer price inflation. These rate increases have resulted in higher mortgage interest rates which may lower home sale activity and affect the options available to delinquent borrowers. It is reasonably possible that our estimate of losses could change in the near term as a result of changes in the economic environment, the impact of elevated levels of consumer price inflation on home sale activity, housing inventory and home prices.

In September 2022, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida and caused property damage in certain counties. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty surrounding these insured loans. Under our master policy, loan servicers are not required to notify us of a default until the borrower has missed two consecutive minimum payments. Also, the level of damage being reported in these areas varies significantly from region to region. Further, under our master policy, our exposure may be limited on hurricane-related claims. For example, we are permitted to exclude a claim entirely where estimated restoration costs from damage to the property underlying a mortgage equal 20% or more of the property’s original value and adjust a claim where the property underlying a mortgage in default is subject to unrestored physical damage. This event has not materially affected our reserves as of December 31, 2022. The impact on our reserves in future periods will be dependent upon the amount of delinquent notices received from loan servicers and our expectations for the amount of ultimate losses on these delinquencies.

The following table summarizes incurred loss and allocated loss adjustment expense development, net of reinsurance, IBNR plus expected development on reported defaults and the cumulative number of reported defaults. The information about incurred loss development for the years ended December 31, 2013 to 2021 is presented as supplementary information.
Incurred Loss and Allocated LAE,
For the Years Ended December 31,		As of December 31, 2022
(In thousands)Total of IBNR plus Expected Development on Reported DefaultsCumulative Number of Reported Defaults (1)
Unaudited
Accident Year2013201420152016201720182019202020212022
2013$2,986 $2,461 $2,008 $1,997 $2,060 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 $— 51 
20146,877 4,312 3,323 2,984 2,930 2,897 2,882 2,869 2,870 1 92 
201514,956 9,625 8,893 8,439 8,461 8,323 8,410 8,434 7 213 
201621,889 11,890 9,455 9,219 8,972 8,614 8,861 27 244 
201738,178 16,261 12,202 11,488 11,249 11,550 64 327 
201836,438 23,168 19,536 17,402 17,249 188 492 
201950,562 39,085 23,649 24,223 823 693 
2020317,516 269,410 53,045 3,550 1,156 
202197,256 38,551 2,866 1,349 
202299,372 7,430 10,768 
Total$266,213 
(1) Cumulative number of reported defaults includes cumulative paid claims plus loans in default by accident year as of December 31, 2022.
The following table summarizes cumulative paid losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance. The information about paid loss development for the years ended December 31, 2013 through 2021 is presented as supplementary information.
(In thousands)Cumulative Paid Losses and Allocated LAE
For the Years Ended December 31,
Unaudited
Accident Year2013201420152016201720182019202020212022
2013$239 $928 $1,501 $1,775 $1,880 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 $2,058 
2014138 1,587 2,463 2,787 2,897 2,882 2,867 2,856 2,856 
2015544 3,610 6,960 7,535 7,961 8,055 8,226 8,335 
2016927 4,896 6,947 7,864 8,270 8,205 8,468 
2017633 5,370 9,156 10,257 10,536 10,620 
20181,310 8,067 13,406 13,927 14,536 
20191,288 8,049 10,717 12,392 
20201,018 2,499 4,022 
2021388 856 
2022224 
Total $64,367 
All outstanding liabilities before 2013, net of reinsurance
— 
Reserve for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance$201,846 

The following table provides a reconciliation of the net incurred losses and paid claims development tables above to the reserve for losses and LAE at December 31, 2022:
(In thousands)December 31, 2022
Reserve for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance$201,846 
Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid claims14,618 
Total gross reserve for losses and LAE$216,464 

For our mortgage insurance portfolio, our average annual payout of losses as of December 31, 2022 is as follows:
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Losses and Allocated LAE by Year
Year12345678910
Average Payout5 %31 %25 %9 %4 %2 %1 %0 %0 %0 %