Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2021

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

Ark establishes loss and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves that are estimates of amounts needed to pay claims and related expenses in the future for insured events that have already occurred. The process of estimating reserves involves a considerable degree of judgment by management and, as of any given date, is inherently uncertain.

Loss and LAE reserves typically comprise case reserves for claims reported and reserves for losses that have occurred but for which claims have not yet been reported, referred to as incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves. IBNR reserves include a provision for expected future development on case reserves. Case reserves are estimated based on the experience and knowledge of claims staff regarding the nature and potential cost of each claim and are adjusted as additional information becomes known or payments are made. IBNR reserves are typically derived by subtracting paid loss and LAE and case reserves from estimates of ultimate losses and LAE. Actuaries estimate ultimate loss and LAE using various generally accepted actuarial methods applied to known losses and other relevant information. Like case reserves, IBNR reserves are adjusted as additional information becomes known or payments are made.

Ultimate loss and LAE are generally determined by extrapolation of claim emergence and settlement patterns observed in the past that can reasonably be expected to persist into the future. In forecasting ultimate loss and LAE with respect to any line of business, past experience with respect to that line of business is the primary resource, but cannot be relied upon in isolation. Ark’s own experience, particularly claims development experience, such as trends in case reserves, payments on and closings of claims, as well as changes in business mix and coverage limits, is the most important information for estimating its reserves. Ultimate loss and LAE for major losses and catastrophes are estimated based on the known and expected exposures to the loss event, rather than simply relying on the extrapolation of reported and settled claims.

Uncertainties in estimating ultimate loss and LAE are magnified by the time lag between when a claim actually occurs and when it is reported and eventually settled. This time lag is sometimes referred to as the “claim-tail”. The claim-tail for most property coverages is typically short (usually a few days up to a few months). The claim-tail for liability/casualty coverages can be quite long as claims are often reported and ultimately paid or settled years after the related loss events occur. During the long claims reporting and settlement period, additional facts regarding coverages written in prior accident years, as well as about actual claims and trends may become known and, as a result, Ark may adjust its reserves. If management determines that an adjustment is appropriate, the adjustment is booked in the accounting period in which such determination is made. Accordingly, should reserves need to be increased or decreased in the future from amounts currently established, future results of operations would be negatively or positively impacted.

In determining ultimate loss and LAE, the cost to indemnify claimants, provide needed legal defense and other services for insureds and administer the investigation and adjustment of claims are considered. These claim costs are influenced by many factors that change over time, such as expanded coverage definitions as a result of new court decisions, inflation in costs to repair or replace damaged property, inflation in the cost of services and legislated changes in statutory benefits, as well as by the particular, unique facts that pertain to each claim. As a result, the rate at which claims arose in the past and the costs to settle them may not always be representative of what will occur in the future. The factors influencing changes in claim costs are often difficult to isolate or quantify and developments in paid and incurred losses from historical trends are frequently subject to multiple and conflicting interpretations. Changes in coverage terms or claims handling practices may also cause future experience and/or development patterns to vary from the past. Because of the factors previously discussed, the process requires the use of informed judgment and is inherently uncertain.

Ark performs an actuarial review of its recorded reserves each quarter, using several generally accepted actuarial methods to evaluate its loss reserves, each of which has its own strengths and weaknesses. Management places more or less reliance on a particular method based on the facts and circumstances at the time the reserve estimates are made.

The following table summarizes the loss and LAE reserve activities of Ark’s insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries for the three months ended March 31, 2021:


Millions	Three Months Ended March 31, 2021
Gross beginning balance as of January 1, 2021	$	696.0
Less: beginning reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses	(433.4)
Net loss and LAE reserves	262.6

Loss and LAE incurred relating to:
Current year losses	65.5
Prior year losses	.5
Total incurred losses and LAE	66.0

Foreign currency translation adjustment to loss and LAE reserves	.7

Loss and LAE paid relating to:
Current year losses	(5.2)
Prior year losses	(19.7)
Total loss and LAE payments	(24.9)

Net ending balance	304.4
Plus: ending reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses	447.5
Gross ending balance as of March 31, 2021	$	751.9

See Note 10 — “Municipal Bond Guarantee Insurance” for loss and LAE reserve balances related to White Mountains financial guarantee business.