![]() March 20, 2010
Project Xenon Fairness Opinion Presentation
Confidential
Presentation Materials For:
The Board of Directors of CONSOL Energy Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL
FOR BOARD OF DIRECTORS ONLY, NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION
Exhibit (c)(1) |
![]() Table of Contents
I.
Transaction Overview
II.
CNX Gas Overview
III.
Valuation Summary
IV.
Pro Forma Transaction Analysis
Table of Contents |
![]() 3
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated ("Stifel Nicolaus" or
"we") has been advised that CONSOL Energy Inc. (CONSOL or
the "Company), is contemplating a tender offer (the Tender
Offer) pursuant to which the Company (or a subsidiary of the
Company) will offer to purchase each outstanding share of common stock of
CNX Gas Inc. (CNX Gas) not already owned by the Company or
its subsidiaries for cash at a price per share of $38.25 (the Offer Price). If the Tender Offer conditions are satisfied,
CNX Gas will be promptly merged with and into a subsidiary of CONSOL, with
the surviving entity being a wholly owned subsidiary of CONSOL (such
merger, together with the Tender Offer, the Proposed Transaction).
The Board of Directors of the Company (the "Board") has requested
Stifel Nicolaus opinion as to the fairness to the Company, from
a financial point of view, of the Offer Price to be paid by the Company to
the minority shareholders of CNX Gas in the Proposed Transaction (the
Opinion"). These materials are being presented to the Board
in support of our written Opinion. These materials do not, however, constitute our
Opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Our Opinion
is limited to the terms of our written Opinion. The following
presentation summarizes the financial analyses we employed in reaching our Opinion and is qualified in its entirety by
reference to the full text of the Opinion.
In connection with the preparation of these materials, we have relied upon
and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and
completeness of all financial, operating and other information that was made available, supplied, or otherwise
communicated to Stifel Nicolaus by or on behalf of the Company, the Board or
their respective advisors and other publicly available
information. Stifel Nicolaus has also relied upon the management of
the Company as to the reasonableness and achievability of the
financial forecasts and projections (and the assumptions and bases therein)
provided to us by the Company, and we have assumed such forecasts and
projections were reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of
the management of the Company as to the future operating and financial
performance of the Company and CNX Gas. |
![]() 4
Stifel Nicolaus has relied on these forecasts and projections without
independent verification or analyses and does not in any respect
assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness thereof. In arriving at the conclusion of our Opinion, we have
not been requested to make, nor have we made, an independent evaluation of
cash flow forecasts of the Company or CNX Gas or any appraisal of the
assets or liabilities of the Company or CNX Gas. No companies or transactions utilized in our analyses were
identical to CNX Gas. Please refer to the Opinion for a summary of the
materials reviewed and other due diligence performed by Stifel
Nicolaus in connection with this engagement. We believe that our analysis should be considered as a whole, and that
selecting portions of our analysis and the factors we considered,
without considering all analyses and factors, could be misleading. The preparation of a fairness opinion is a complex
process and, as a result, fairness opinions are not necessarily susceptible
to partial analysis or summary description. In our analysis we
made numerous assumptions where necessary with respect to industry performance, and general business or economic
conditions, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. Our
Opinion is necessarily based upon economic, market, financial and
other conditions and circumstances as they exist on, and on the information made available to us as of, the date of the
Opinion. We have assumed that the Proposed Transaction will be consummated
on the terms and conditions provided to us by the management of the
Company, without any material modification or waiver of any material terms or conditions thereto, and that
that the Tender Offer documents, which we have not reviewed, will reflect
such terms and conditions. It should be understood that,
although subsequent developments may affect the Opinion or the analyses or
information set forth in these materials, we do not have any
obligation to update, revise or reaffirm our Opinion. |
![]() 5
Our
Opinion
is
limited
to
whether
the
Offer
Price
proposed
to
be
paid
by
the
Company
to
the
minority
shareholders
of
CNX
Gas
in
the
Proposed Transaction is fair to the Company from a financial point of
view. Neither our Opinion nor these materials consider, address
or
include:
(i)
any
other
alternatives
currently
(or
which
have
been
or
may
be)
contemplated
by
the
Company
or
the
Board;
(ii)
the
legal, tax or accounting consequences of the Proposed Transaction on the
Company or the holders of the Companys securities; (iii) the
fairness of the amount or nature of any compensation to any of the
Companys officers, directors or employees, or class of such persons,
relative to the compensation to the Company or the public holders of the
Companys securities; (iv) any advice or opinions provided by
any other advisor to the Company or the Board; or (v) whether the Company
has sufficient cash, available lines of credit or other sources of
financing to pay the aggregate cash consideration to CNX Gas.
Furthermore, we do not express any opinion herein or in our Opinion as to
the prices, trading range or volume at which the securities of the
Company or CNX Gas will trade following public announcement or consummation of the Proposed Transaction.
It is understood that these materials are solely for the information of, and
directed to, the Board for its information and assistance in
connection with its evaluation of the financial terms of the Proposed
Transaction and are not to be relied upon by any shareholder of the
Company or any other person or entity. These materials do not
constitute a recommendation to the Company or the Board as to whether the Company should commence the
Tender Offer or effect the Proposed Transaction. Neither our Opinion
nor these materials compare the relative merits of the Proposed
Transaction with any other alternative transaction which may have been
available to the Company or address the underlying business decision
of the Board or the Company to proceed with or effect the Proposed Transaction. Stifel Nicolaus was not requested to, and did
not, explore alternatives to the Proposed Transaction.
|
![]() 6
These
materials
and
our
Opinion
were
approved
by
Stifel
Nicolaus
Fairness
Opinion
Committee.
These
materials
are
not
to
be
quoted
or referred to, in whole or in part, in any registration statement,
prospectus, proxy statement, tender offer statement or
solicitation/recommendation statement or in any other document used in
connection with an offering or sale of securities, a tender for
securities, or to seek any approval for the Proposed Transaction, nor shall
this presentation be used for any other purposes, without the prior
written consent of Stifel Nicolaus. We have acted as financial advisor
to the Board in connection with the Proposed Transaction and will receive a fee upon the delivery
of
our
Opinion.
We
will
receive
an
additional
fee
contingent
upon
consummation
of
the
Proposed
Transaction.
In
addition,
the
Company
has
agreed
to
indemnify
us
for
certain
liabilities
arising
out
of
our
engagement.
Stifel
Nicolaus
has
in
the
past
executed
on
several occasions block trades on standard brokerage terms for the Company
in connection with its repurchases of stock pursuant to its
issuer
repurchase
program.
Stifel
Nicolaus
has
also
provided
a
fairness
opinion
to
the
Board
in
connection
with
the
Companys
acquisition
of
certain
assets
from
Dominion
Resources,
Inc.
in
March
2010.
There
are
no
other
material
relationships
that
existed
during the two years prior to the date of our opinion or that are mutually
understood to be contemplated in which any compensation was received
or is intended to be received as a result of the relationship between Stifel Nicolaus and any party to the Proposed
Transaction. Stifel Nicolaus may seek to provide investment banking
services to the Company or its affiliates in the future, for which
we
would
seek
customary
compensation.
In
the
ordinary
course
of
business,
Stifel
Nicolaus
and
its
clients
may
transact
in
the
securities
of
the
Company
and,
accordingly,
may
at
any
time
hold
a
long
or
short
position
in
such
securities. |
![]() I.
Transaction Overview |
![]() 8
Transaction Overview
CONSOL intends to commence a tender offer for each outstanding share of
common stock of CNX Gas not already owned by the Company or its
subsidiaries for an offer price of $38.25 per share Equity
Value: $963.4 million The Tender Offer is conditional upon,
among other things: The completion of $4.5 billion of permanent
financing transactions by CONSOL related to acquisition of certain
exploration and production assets from Dominion Resources, Inc.
(Platinum Financing Transactions) The tender of a
majority of the outstanding shares of CNX Gas not owned by CONSOL without regard to any shares
of CNX Gas owned by directors or management at either CONSOL or CNX Gas,
such condition being irrevocable Government and regulatory
approvals, including expiration of HSR waiting period
None of the parties to the Tender Offer documents shall be subject to any
decrees, order or injunction of a U.S. court of competent
jurisdiction that prohibits the consummation of the Tender
Offer The Tender Offer is scheduled to commence post closing of the
Platinum Financing Transactions Transaction Overview
|
![]() 9
Transaction Summary
Unless otherwise noted, for
purposes of this presentation
CNX Gass price is $30.80 per
share (3/19/2010 close)
CNX Gas basic shares
outstanding of 151.0 million,
per CNX Gas 12/31/2009 10K,
excluding 1.4 million options
outstanding
Assumed 16.7% public
ownership of CNX Gas
Current
Offer
3/12/2010
(1)
(Dollars in millions, except per share data)
30.80
$
38.25
$
26.23
$
Implied Premium to 3/19/2010 Price of $30.80
0.0%
24.2%
45.8%
(1)
Implied Equity Value
4,650
$
5,775
$
3,960
$
Plus: Total Debt
(2)
128
$
128
$
128
$
Less: Cash
(2)
1
$
1
$
1
$
Implied Enterprise Value
4,777
$
5,902
$
4,087
$
Implied Equity Value - Public
776
$
963
$
661
$
CNX Gas Financial Statistics
(3)
:
Implied Multiples
EBITDA
CY 2010E
416
$
11.5x
14.2x
9.8x
CY 2011E
430
$
11.1x
13.7x
9.5x
CY 2012E
563
$
8.5x
10.5x
7.3x
EPS
CY 2010E
1.25
$
24.6x
30.6x
21.0x
CY 2011E
1.29
$
23.8x
29.6x
20.3x
CY 2012E
1.57
$
19.6x
24.4x
16.7x
CNX Gas Reserve Data
(4)
:
Implied EV Per MMcf
Reserves
Proved
1,911
2.50
$
3.09
$
2.14
$
(Bcf)
Evaluated 3P
6,500
0.73
$
0.91
$
0.63
$
Resource Potential
18,050
0.26
$
0.33
$
0.23
$
Implied EV % Per PV-10
PV-10
Proved
1,480
$
323%
399%
276%
Transaction Overview
(1) Day prior to Dominion transaction announcement. Implied
premium is from Offer Price to price on 3/12/2010 (2)
Source: CNX Gas 12/31/2009 10K. Total debt includes non-controlling interest
(3) CNX Gas projected financial information based on Bloomberg
Consensus as of 3/19/2010 (4) 2009A data from CNX Gas
12/31/2009 10K and CNX Gas 1/25/2010 press release |
![]() II.
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() 11
CNX Gas Overview
CNX Gas Overview
(1) Closing price as of 3/19/2010
(2) CNX Gas shares outstanding from 12/31/2009 10K. Includes
151.0 million basic shares outstanding only (3) 16.7% of CNX
Gas basic shares outstanding held by public shareholders. Source: CNX Gas 12/31/2009 10K
(4) 83.3% of CNX Gas basic shares outstanding held by CONSOL.
Source: CNX Gas 12/31/2009 10K (5) Source: CNX Gas
12/31/2009 10K. Total debt includes non-controlling interest
(6) Source: CNX Gas projected financial information based on
Bloomberg Consensus as of 3/19/2010 (7) Source:
2009A
data
from
CNX
Gas
12/31/2009
10K
and
CNX
Gas
1/25/2010
press
release
(Dollars in millions, except per share data)
Market Data
Summary Financials and Valuation Metrics
Reserves (Bcf) and Valuation Metrics
Share Price
(1)
30.80
$
EBITDA
(6)
Proved Reserves
(7)
1,911
52-Week High (10/22/2009)
36.00
$
2010E
416
$
Evaluated 3P Reserves
(7)
6,500
Discount to LTM High
(14.4%)
2011E
430
$
Resource Potential (Midpoint)
(7)
18,050
52-Week Low (3/18/2009)
22.99
$
2012E
563
$
Proved PV-10
(7)
1,480
$
Premium to LTM Low
34.0%
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
EV/Proved Reserves
2.50
$
Basic
Shares
Outstanding
-
Public
(2)(3)
25
2010E
11.5x
EV/Evaluated 3P Reserves
0.73
$
Basic
Shares
Outstanding
-
CONSOL
(2)(4)
126
2011E
11.1x
EV/Resource Potential
0.26
$
Basic Shares Outstanding
(2)
151
2012E
8.5x
EV Value/PV-10
323%
Market Capitalization
4,650
$
EPS
(6)
Plus: Total Debt
(5)
128
$
2010E
1.25
$
Less: Cash
(5)
1
$
2011E
1.29
$
Total Enterprise Value
4,777
$
2012E
1.57
$
Price/Earnings
2010E
24.6x
2011E
23.8x
2012E
19.6x |
![]() 12
Apr 06
Jul 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
Jul 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
Volume
Price
CNX Gas Price/Volume
Since Listing (1/19/2006)
Source: FactSet
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() 13
Apr 06
Jul 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
Jul 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
CONSOL
CNX Gas
CONSOL Comparables
CNX Gas Comparables
Relative Price Performance
Since CNX Gas Listing (1/19/2006)
Price Performance - Since CNX Gas Listing
CONSOL
24.8%
CNX Gas
41.4%
CONSOL Comparables
5.2%
CNX Gas Comparables
41.3%
Source: FactSet
Notes:
CONSOL
Comparables
include:
Peabody
Energy,
Arch
Coal
and
Alpha
Natural
Resources
CNX Gas Comparables include: Southwestern Energy, Range Resources,
Ultra Petroleum, Cabot Oil and Gas, Atlas Energy and Petrohawk Energy
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() 14
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
Volume
Price
CNX Gas Price/Volume
Last Twelve Months
Source: FactSet
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() 15
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
CONSOL
CNX Gas
CONSOL Comparables
CNX Gas Comparables
Relative Price Performance
Last Twelve Months
Price Performance - Last Twelve Months
CONSOL
49.6%
CNX Gas
25.2%
CONSOL Comparables
76.1%
CNX Gas Comparables
21.3%
CNX Gas Overview
Source: FactSet
Notes:
CONSOL Comparables include: Peabody Energy, Arch Coal and Alpha
Natural Resources CNX Gas Comparables include: Southwestern
Energy, Range Resources, Ultra Petroleum, Cabot Oil and Gas, Atlas Energy and Petrohawk Energy |
![]() 16
CNX Gas Price Histogram
Last Twelve Months
1.6%
15.4%
28.5%
29.6%
20.2%
2.0%
2.8%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
24.0%
28.0%
32.0%
$22.00 - $24.00
$24.00 - $26.00
$26.00 - $28.00
$28.00 - $30.00
$30.00 - $32.00
$32.00 - $34.00
$34.00 - $36.00
% of Volume Traded by Price Range
Sum of % Volume Traded
Source: FactSet
CNX Gas Overview
1.6%
17.0%
45.5%
75.1%
95.3%
97.2%
100.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
$22.00 - $24.00
$22.00 - $26.00
$22.00 - $28.00
$22.00 - $30.00
$22.00 - $32.00
$22.00 - $34.00
$22.00 - $36.00 |
![]() 17
CNX Gas Top 25 Institutional Shareholders at 12/31/2009
% Current
Institutional Holders
Shares Held
% Held
Float
1
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
9,474,116
6.3%
38.0%
2
Advisory Research, Inc.
3,900,793
2.6%
15.7%
3
BlackRock Global Investors
1,672,976
1.1%
6.7%
4
Chilton Investment Co. LLC
1,438,330
1.0%
5.8%
5
Vanguard Group, Inc.
1,076,899
0.7%
4.3%
6
BlackRock Advisors LLC
627,875
0.4%
2.5%
7
Standard Life Investments Ltd.
388,500
0.3%
1.6%
8
First Pacific Advisors LLC
353,300
0.2%
1.4%
9
State Street Global Advisors
288,747
0.2%
1.2%
10
Bank of New York Mellon Asset Management
270,068
0.2%
1.1%
11
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
250,991
0.2%
1.0%
12
Eagle Asset Management, Inc.
216,830
0.1%
0.9%
13
Renaissance Technologies LLC
205,700
0.1%
0.8%
14
TIAA-CREF Asset Management LLC
189,983
0.1%
0.8%
15
Norges Bank Investment Management
176,994
0.1%
0.7%
16
Northwestern Investment Management Co. LLC
168,600
0.1%
0.7%
17
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.
128,511
0.1%
0.5%
18
Mellon Capital Management
124,684
0.1%
0.5%
19
Blackthorn Investment Group LLC
120,000
0.1%
0.5%
20
CR Intrinsic Investors LLC
119,218
0.1%
0.5%
21
Northern Trust Investments
110,622
0.1%
0.4%
22
Comerica Asset Management
106,018
0.1%
0.4%
23
Deutsche Bank Investment Management, Inc.
103,739
0.1%
0.4%
24
GW Capital Management LLC
102,000
0.1%
0.4%
25
Aronson & Johnson & Ortiz LP
101,600
0.1%
0.4%
Top 10 Institutional Holdings
19,491,604
12.9%
78.3%
Top 15 Institutional Holdings
20,532,102
13.6%
82.5%
Top 20 Institutional Holdings
21,193,115
14.0%
85.1%
Top 25 Institutional Holdings
21,717,094
14.4%
87.2%
Total Basic Shares Outstanding
150,986,918
100.0%
Source: FactSet
Note: Current float is 25 million shares as of 3/19/2010
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() 18
CNX
Gas
Analyst
Price
Targets
and
Earnings
Estimates
Year
to
Date
Company
Date
Price Target
Recommendation
RBC Capital Markets
3/16/2010
$36.00
Sector Perform
Pritchard Capital Partners LLC
3/16/2010
$43.00
Buy
Stifel Nicolaus
3/15/2010
$34.00
Buy
Howard Weil Inc
3/5/2010
$38.00
Market Outperform
Raymond James
1/29/2010
NA
Market Perform
FBR Capital Markets
1/28/2010
$40.00
Market Perform
UBS Investment Banking
1/26/2010
$34.00
Buy
Consensus Price Target
$37.50
Source: Bloomberg
CNX Gas Overview |
![]() III.
Valuation Summary |
![]() 20
Comparable Companies Valuation
Valuation Summary
(Dollars in millions, except per share data)
Current
Price
Market
Net
Enterprise
Net Debt/
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Company (Ticker)
3/19/2010
Cap.
Debt
Value
09 EBITDA
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2010E
2011E
2012E
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN)
39.60
$
13,705
$
995
$
14,700
$
0.7x
1,368
$
1,884
$
2,506
$
3,331
$
7.8x
5.9x
4.4x
Range Resources Corp. (RRC)
47.76
$
7,601
$
1,707
$
9,308
$
3.1x
547
$
796
$
1,056
$
1,426
$
11.7x
8.8x
6.5x
Petrohawk Energy Corp. (HK)
20.32
$
6,121
$
2,640
$
8,761
$
3.9x
684
$
1,087
$
1,338
$
1,527
$
8.1x
6.5x
5.7x
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)
44.24
$
6,727
$
781
$
7,508
$
1.3x
583
$
907
$
1,224
$
1,642
$
8.3x
6.1x
4.6x
Atlas Energy Inc. (ATLS)
32.96
$
2,578
$
767
$
3,345
$
2.3x
332
$
277
$
320
$
NA
12.1x
10.5x
NA
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG)
38.14
$
3,960
$
765
$
4,725
$
1.4x
554
$
645
$
714
$
832
$
7.3x
6.6x
5.7x
Minimum
0.7x
332
$
277
$
320
$
832
$
7.3x
5.9x
4.4x
Median
1.8x
569
$
851
$
1,140
$
1,527
$
8.2x
6.6x
5.7x
Mean
2.1x
678
$
933
$
1,193
$
1,752
$
9.2x
7.4x
5.4x
Maximum
3.9x
1,368
$
1,884
$
2,506
$
3,331
$
12.1x
10.5x
6.5x
CNX Gas Corp. (CXG)
30.80
$
4,650
$
127
$
4,777
$
0.3x
378
$
416
$
430
$
563
$
11.5x
11.1x
8.5x
CNX Gas at Offer Price
38.25
$
5,775
$
127
$
5,902
$
0.3x
378
$
416
$
430
$
563
$
14.2x
13.7x
10.5x
Proved
Net Debt/
Resource
Proved/
Daily
EV/
EV/
EV/
Proved
Percent
R/P
Proved
Potential
Resource
Production
Proved
EV/
Potential
Production
Company (Ticker)
Bcfe
Developed
Ratio
Bcfe
PV-10
Bcfe
Potential
(Mcfe/d)
($/Mcfe)
PV-10
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfe/d)
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN)
3,656
54.1%
12.2x
0.27
$
2,304
$
19,297
19%
823,134
4.02
$
638%
0.76
$
17,859
$
Range Resources Corp. (RRC)
3,129
55.2%
19.7x
0.55
$
2,593
$
26,000
12%
435,926
2.97
$
359%
0.36
$
21,352
$
Petrohawk Energy Corp. (HK)
2,743
32.9%
15.0x
0.96
$
1,532
$
31,000
9%
501,797
3.19
$
572%
0.28
$
17,459
$
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)
3,912
41.2%
21.7x
0.20
$
2,887
$
23,000
17%
493,449
1.92
$
260%
0.33
$
15,216
$
Atlas Energy Inc. (ATLS)
1,020
52.5%
27.6x
0.75
$
436
$
13,000
8%
101,238
3.28
$
766%
0.26
$
33,043
$
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG)
2,060
64.3%
20.0x
0.37
$
1,632
$
9,119
23%
281,704
2.29
$
290%
0.52
$
16,771
$
Minimum
32.9%
12.2x
0.20
$
436
$
9,119
8%
101,238
1.92
$
260%
0.26
$
15,216
$
Median
53.3%
19.8x
0.46
$
1,968
$
21,149
15%
464,688
3.08
$
465%
0.34
$
17,659
$
Mean
50.0%
19.4x
0.52
$
1,897
$
20,236
15%
439,542
2.95
$
481%
0.42
$
20,283
$
Maximum
64.3%
27.6x
0.96
$
2,887
$
31,000
23%
823,134
4.02
$
766%
0.76
$
33,043
$
CNX Gas Corp. (CXG)
1,911
54.4%
20.2x
0.07
$
1,480
$
18,050
11%
258,671
2.50
$
323%
0.26
$
18,468
$
CNX Gas at Offer Price
1,911
54.4%
20.2x
0.07
$
1,480
$
18,050
11%
258,671
3.09
$
399%
0.33
$
22,816
$
Sources: Company filings, company presentations, Bloomberg.
Notes:
Balance sheet, reserves and production data and as of 12/31/2009; reserves
pro forma for divestitures and acquisitions EBITDA estimates based
on Bloomberg Consensus as of 3/19/2010 |
![]() 21
Comparable Companies Valuation
Valuation Summary
Note:
2011
to
2012
comparable
growth
rates
exclude
Atlas
Energy
since
2012
data
was
not
available
2010 to 2011 EBITDA Growth
11%
28%
25%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
CNX Gas Growth Rate:
3%
2011 to 2012 EBITDA Growth
14%
33%
27%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
CNX Gas Growth Rate:
31%
EBITDA Growth
2010 - 2011
2011 - 2012
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN)
33%
33%
Range Resources Corp. (RRC)
33%
35%
Petrohawk Energy Corp. (HK)
23%
14%
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)
35%
34%
Atlas Energy Inc. (ATLS)
16%
NA
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG)
11%
17%
Minimum
11%
14%
Median
28%
33%
Mean
25%
27%
Maximum
35%
35%
CNX Gas Corp. (CXG)
3%
31% |
![]() 22
Comparable Companies Valuation
Valuation Summary
Enterprise Value to PV-10
260%
465%
481%
766%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Value:
399%
Proved Reserve Value
$1.92
$3.08
$2.95
$4.02
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Value:
$3.09
Resource Potential Value
$0.26
$0.34
$0.42
$0.76
$-
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Value:
$0.33
Enterprise Value to 2010 EBITDA
7.3x
8.2x
9.2x
12.1x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Value:
14.2x |
![]() 23
Selected Precedent E&P Transactions
Precedent transactions were selected based on the following
criteria: Transaction values greater than $250 million in the U.S.
E&P sector since 1/1/2005 Excludes transactions where financial
information is unavailable (Dollars in millions, except per share
data) Method of
Enterprise
Equity
Premium
Announce
Close
Buyer Name
Seller Name
Payment
Value
Value
1 Day
5 Day
30 Day
12/14/2009
Pending
ExxonMobil Corp.
XTO Energy, Inc.
Stock
40,361
$
30,000
$
25%
26%
18%
11/1/2009
3/10/2010
Denbury Resources, Inc.
Encore Acquisition Co.
Combo
4,054
2,799
35%
18%
28%
4/27/2009
9/29/2009
Atlas America, Inc.
Atlas Energy Resources LLC
Stock
1,016
481
0%
7%
37%
4/30/2008
8/28/2008
Stone Energy Corp.
Bois d'Arc Energy, Inc.
Combo
1,696
1,654
(4%)
(4%)
9%
7/17/2007
11/6/2007
Plains Exploration & Production Co.
Pogo Producing Co.
Combo
5,291
3,473
17%
17%
9%
1/7/2007
6/6/2007
Forest Oil Corp.
Houston Exploration Co.
Combo
2,086
1,742
8%
1%
(4%)
6/23/2006
8/23/2006
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
Western Gas Resources, Inc.
Cash
5,239
4,647
49%
45%
28%
6/23/2006
8/10/2006
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
Kerr-McGee Corp.
Cash
18,121
16,004
40%
37%
33%
4/21/2006
7/12/2006
Petrohawk Energy Corp.
KCS Energy, Inc.
Combo
1,767
1,499
5%
13%
25%
1/23/2006
7/3/2006
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.
Remington Oil & Gas Corp.
Combo
1,249
1,288
17%
20%
18%
12/12/2005
3/31/2006
ConocoPhillips
Burlington Resources, Inc.
Combo
36,039
34,962
22%
24%
39%
10/13/2005
1/30/2006
Occidental Petroleum Corp.
Vintage Petroleum, Inc.
Combo
3,899
3,504
34%
32%
25%
9/19/2005
12/14/2005
Norsk Hydro ASA
Spinnaker Exploration Co.
Cash
2,335
2,238
35%
45%
52%
4/4/2005
8/10/2005
ChevronTexaco Corp.
Unocal Corp.
Combo
17,622
17,705
2%
11%
5%
4/4/2005
7/29/2005
Petrohawk Energy Corp.
Mission Resources Corp.
Combo
511
347
14%
16%
8%
1/26/2005
6/7/2005
Cimarex Energy Co.
Magnum Hunter Resources, Inc.
Stock
2,194
1,569
25%
27%
29%
Minimum
(4%)
(4%)
(4%)
Median
20%
19%
25%
Mean
20%
21%
22%
Maximum
49%
45%
52%
CONSOL
CNX Gas
Cash
5,902
$
5,775
$
24%
26%
41%
Sources: FactSet MergerStat, John S. Herold
Valuation Summary |
![]() 24
Stock
(3 Deals)
18.5%
Cash
(3 Deals)
18.5%
Combination
(10 Deals)
62.5%
Selected Precedent E&P Transactions
Sample set includes public E&P transactions (n=16) since January
1, 2005
Transaction values greater than $250 million
Excludes foreign sellers
Approximately 62.5%, 18.5%, and 18.5% of the precedent public E&P
transactions utilized a combination (n=10), all cash (n=3), and all
stock (n=3) as the form of the consideration, respectively
All-cash deals had significantly higher 1 day, 5 day and 30 day
premiums
Consideration
Offered in E&P Transactions
Mean
Premiums Paid by Consideration Offered Valuation
Summary Sources: FactSet MergerStat, John S. Herold
17%
20%
28%
41%
42%
38%
15%
15%
16%
20%
21%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1 Day
5 Day
30 Day
Stock
Cash
Combination
Total |
![]() 25
1 Day Premium
(4%)
20%
20%
49%
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
24%
Selected Precedent E&P Transactions
5 Day Premium
(4%)
19%
21%
45%
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
26%
30 Day Premium
(4%)
25%
22%
52%
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
41%
Valuation Summary |
![]() 26
Selected Precedent Parent/Subsidiary Transactions
Precedent transactions were selected based on the following
criteria: Minority cash buy-in transactions with values greater
than $200 million since 1/1/2005 Excludes transactions where
financial information is unavailable Sources: FactSet
MergerStat, John S. Herold Valuation Summary
Enterprise
Equity
Percent
Premium
Announce
Close
Buyer Name
Seller Name
Value
Value
Sought
1 Day
5 Day
30 Day
9/4/2009
10/22/2009
Fairfax Financial Holdings
Odyssey Re Holdings Corp.
3,434
$
1,041
$
27.4
19%
20%
36%
8/12/2008
9/29/2008
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
UnionBanCal Corp.
18,427
3,586
34.6
26%
29%
77%
7/21/2008
3/26/2009
Roche Holding AG
Genentech, Inc.
102,192
46,763
44.3
16%
26%
28%
3/10/2008
1/2/2009
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co.
Nationwide Financial Services, Inc.
9,091
2,426
33.7
38%
29%
26%
11/5/2007
4/15/2008
Alfa Mutual Insurance Co.
Alfa Corp.
1,925
856
45.9
26%
23%
22%
10/23/2007
5/9/2008
Goldman Sachs Group, Macquarie Infrastructure
Waste Industries USA, Inc.
695
376
49.0
33%
41%
25%
2/22/2007
9/28/2007
American Financial Group, Inc.
Great American Financial Resources, Inc.
1,194
225
19.0
13%
15%
8%
1/24/2007
9/27/2007
American International Group, Inc.
21st Century Insurance Group
2,090
811
39.3
35%
29%
27%
11/20/2006
4/20/2007
Toronto-Dominion Bank
TD Banknorth, Inc.
10,161
3,189
43.0
7%
8%
10%
10/9/2006
6/22/2007
Valcon Acquisition Holding
NetRatings, Inc.
749
296
39.5
44%
45%
42%
3/17/2006
7/26/2006
William Lyons
William Lyon Homes
1,563
240
25.5
44%
51%
10%
2/6/2006
5/16/2006
Lafarge SA
Lafarge North America, Inc.
6,405
2,870
46.8
33%
34%
57%
9/1/2005
11/9/2005
Seven & I Holdings Co., Ltd.
7-Eleven, Inc.
6,713
1,284
22.7
32%
31%
14%
2/21/2005
7/21/2005
Novartis AG
Eon Labs, Inc.
2,557
831
30.2
11%
8%
14%
Minimum
7%
8%
8%
Median
29%
29%
26%
Mean
27%
28%
28%
Maximum
44%
51%
77%
CONSOL
CNX Gas
5,902
$
5,775
$
17%
24%
26%
41% |
![]() 27
Selected Precedent Parent/Subsidiary Transactions
Valuation Summary
1 Day Premium
7%
29%
27%
44%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
24%
5 Day Premium
8%
29%
28%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
26%
30 Day Premium
8%
26%
28%
77%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Minimum
Median
Mean
Maximum
Implied CNX Gas Premium:
41% |
![]() 28
Implied Price Per Share
Valuation Summary
Methodology
Implied Value of CNX Gas Share Price
$29.63
$29.43
$29.58
$32.81
$33.21
$33.32
$23.45
$29.92
$24.65
$19.33
$45.93
$44.56
$46.73
$44.39
$46.36
$54.67
$50.05
$90.23
$74.28
$32.40
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.0
Public E&P (1-Day Premium)
Public E&P (5-Day Premium)
Public E&P (30-Day Premium)
Parent/Subsidiary (1-Day Premium)
Parent/Subsidary (5-Day Premium)
Parent/Subsidary (30-Day Premium)
Proved Reserve Value
Resource Potential Value
Enterprise Value to PV-10
Enterprise Value to 2010 EBITDA
Comparable Company Analysis
Precedent Transactions Analysis
Current Share Price:
$30.80
Offer Price:
$38.25 |
![]() IV.
Pro Forma Transaction Analysis |
![]() 30
Transaction Assumptions
Financing
Total raise of $1.0 billion based on Company managements guidance as
of 3/20/2010 (excluding shoe)
$388.9 million equity offering
>
Offer price of $45.00 per share
$611.1 million senior notes offering
>
Interest rate of 8.375%
Projections
CONSOL projected 2010, 2011 and 2012 financial information provided by
Company management on 3/19/2010 CNX Gas projected 2010, 2011 and
2012 financial information provided by Company management on 3/19/2010
Shares outstanding
CONSOL shares outstanding per CONSOL 12/31/2009 10K
181.2 million basic shares outstanding; for purposes of this analysis,
options outstanding have not been considered
CNX Gas shares outstanding per CNX Gas 12/31/2009 10K
151.0 million basic shares outstanding; for purposes of this analysis,
options outstanding have not been considered
83.3% of CNX Gas basic shares outstanding are held by CONSOL and
16.7% of CNX Gas basic shares outstanding are
held by public shareholders
Does not assume any cost savings from synergies
Pro forma tax rate of 30%
Assumes transaction completed on 1/1/2010
Pro Forma Transaction Analysis |
![]() 31
Pro Forma Statement of Operations
Sources:
CONSOL projected financial information provided by Company management on
3/19/2010 CNX Gas projected financial information provided by
Company management on 3/19/2010 Notes:
Does not assume any cost savings from synergies
Pro Forma EPS excludes reduction of projected interest income due to
annual dividend of $0.40 that would be paid to CNX Gas shareholders in CONSOL
Pro Forma EPS excludes post-closing purchase accounting adjustments
that may include, among others, the step-up of PP&E to Fair Market Value and the resulting increase to DD&A, as
well as allocation of purchase price to intangible assets
Pro Forma Transaction Analysis
2010E
2011E
2012E
(Dollars in millions, except per share data)
CONSOL
CNX Gas
Trans. Adj.
Pro Forma
CONSOL
CNX Gas
Trans. Adj.
Pro Forma
CONSOL
CNX Gas
Trans. Adj.
Pro Forma
Total Revenues
4,811
$
782
$
4,811
$
4,792
$
922
$
4,792
$
5,193
$
1,319
$
5,193
$
Costs:
Total Operating Expenses, Excl. DD&A
3,640
$
363
$
-
$
3,640
$
3,500
$
429
$
-
$
3,500
$
3,588
$
541
$
-
$
3,588
$
Depreciation, Depletion, Amortization & Accretion
509
$
147
$
509
$
534
$
160
$
534
$
608
$
219
$
608
$
Interest Expense
39
$
8
$
38
$
78
$
37
$
10
$
51
$
88
$
27
$
14
$
51
$
79
$
Non-controlling Interest
-
$
(1)
$
-
$
-
$
(1)
$
-
$
-
$
(1)
$
-
$
Pre-Tax Income
622
$
265
$
584
$
722
$
324
$
671
$
970
$
546
$
918
$
Income Taxes
(185)
$
(99)
$
(175)
$
(215)
$
(125)
$
(201)
$
(310)
$
(211)
$
(276)
$
Effective Tax Rate
30%
38%
30%
30%
39%
30%
32%
39%
30%
Net Income
438
$
166
$
409
$
507
$
199
$
469
$
660
$
335
$
643
$
Minority Interest
(28)
$
-
$
28
$
-
$
(33)
$
-
$
33
$
-
$
(56)
$
-
$
56
$
-
$
Net Income Less Minority Interest
410
$
166
$
409
$
473
$
199
$
469
$
604
$
335
$
643
$
Diluted Earnings Per Share
2.26
$
1.10
$
2.15
$
2.61
$
1.32
$
2.47
$
3.34
$
2.22
$
3.39
$
Diluted Shares Outstanding
181
151
9
190
181
151
9
190
181
151
9
190
EBITDA
1,142
$
420
$
-
$
1,142
$
1,258
$
494
$
-
$
1,258
$
1,547
$
778
$
-
$
1,547
$ |
![]() 32
Accretion/Dilution
Analysis
100%
Cash
Consideration
Pro Forma Transaction Analysis
(Dollars in millions, except per share data)
Offer Price per Share
38.25
$
Implied Premium to 3/19/2010 Price of $30.80
24.2%
Implied CNX Gas Equity Valuation -
Public
963
$
Cash Consideration
963
$
Stock Consideration
-
$
CONSOL Shares Issued in Equity Offering at $45.00
9
Pro Forma CONSOL Shares Outstanding
190
Accretion / Dilution
CY 2010E
CY 2011E
CY 2012E
Standalone Earnings per Share
2.26
$
2.61
$
3.34
$
Pro Forma Earnings per Share
(1)(2)
2.15
$
2.47
$
3.39
$
% Accretion / (Dilution)
(4.9%)
(5.4%)
1.5%
$ Accretion / (Dilution) per Share
(0.11)
$
(0.14)
$
0.05
$
(1) Pro Forma EPS excludes reduction of projected
interest income due to annual dividend of $0.40 that would be paid to CNX Gas shareholders in CONSOL
(2)
Pro Forma EPS excludes post-closing purchase accounting adjustments
that may include, among others, the step-up of PP&E to Fair Market Value and the resulting increase
to DD&A, as well as
allocation of purchase price to intangible assets |