![]() 1 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. RBC Capital Markets RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference MLP Conference November 15, 2007 November 15, 2007 Exhibit 99.2 |
![]() 2 Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that are based
on the beliefs of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. and Alliance Holdings GP,
L.P. (the Partnerships) and those of their respective general
partners (the General Partners), as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to them. When used in this presentation, words
such as anticipate, project, expect, plan, goal, forecast, intend, could, believe, may, and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of the
Partnerships for future operations, are intended to identify
forward-looking statements. Although the Partnerships and their General
Partners believe that such expectations reflected in such forward-looking
statements are reasonable at the time such statements are made, neither the Partnerships nor the General Partners can give assurances that such expectations
will prove to be correct. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks,
uncertainties and assumptions. If one or more of these risks or
uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those the Partnerships anticipated, estimated,
projected or expected. The Partnerships have no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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![]() 3 Table of Contents Table of Contents I. I. Overview Overview II. II. Outlook for Coal Outlook for Coal III. III. Outlook for Alliance Outlook for Alliance IV. IV. Financial Summary and Historical Results Financial Summary and Historical Results V. V. Investing in Alliance Investing in Alliance |
![]() 4 I. Overview I. Overview |
![]() 5 About Alliance About Alliance Diversified producer and marketer of steam coal to major U.S. Diversified producer and marketer of steam coal to major U.S. utilities and industrial users utilities and industrial users Focused on consistent growth through internal development of Focused on consistent growth through internal development of existing reserve base and disciplined acquisitions existing reserve base and disciplined acquisitions Operations and reserves in the Illinois Basin, Central Appalachian Operations and reserves in the Illinois Basin, Central Appalachian and Northern Appalachian markets and Northern Appalachian markets Industry leader in mine safety with innovative use of technology Industry leader in mine safety with innovative use of technology Well positioned coal portfolio with meaningful exposure to scrubber Well positioned coal portfolio with meaningful exposure to scrubber markets markets Strong stable cash flows coupled with conservatively managed Strong stable cash flows coupled with conservatively managed balance sheet balance sheet |
![]() 6 II. Outlook for Coal II. Outlook for Coal |
![]() 7 Coal is the Cornerstone for Americas Energy Coal is the Cornerstone for Americas Energy Future Future Coal is a vital source of secure, affordable domestic energy Coal is a vital source of secure, affordable domestic energy The U.S. has a 200+ year supply of coal The U.S. has a 200+ year supply of coal Coal comprises approximately 95% of U.S. energy reserves Coal comprises approximately 95% of U.S. energy reserves Approximately 50% of U.S. electric power generation is coal fired Approximately 50% of U.S. electric power generation is coal fired Oil, natural gas and uranium prices are at or near record levels Oil, natural gas and uranium prices are at or near record levels On an as-delivered basis, coal is significantly cheaper than other On an as-delivered basis, coal is significantly cheaper than other fuels fuels Proven conversion technologies will only increase the demand for Proven conversion technologies will only increase the demand for coal over time coal over time Alternative energy sources will help meet future energy demands but Alternative energy sources will help meet future energy demands but will not replace coal will not replace coal Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration |
![]() 8 Coal is the Most Stable and Cost Effective Coal is the Most Stable and Cost Effective Source of Energy Source of Energy $1.54 $8.21 $6.44 Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Delivered Cost ($ / mm Btu) Delivered Cost ($ / mm Btu) Energy Benchmarks Energy Benchmarks Source: Energy Information Administration and Factset Central Appalachian Coal - NYMEX Crude Oil, Light - NYMEX Natural Gas-Henry Hub MB-Uranium 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Jan-2004 Dec-2004 Dec-2005 Nov-2006 Nov-2007 Weekly from 01-Jan-2004 to 12-Nov-2007 564.3% 191.0% 29.2% 14.3% |
![]() 9 Analysis of Coal Fired Power Generation Analysis of Coal Fired Power Generation Growth Growth Total Electricity Generation by Type in the United States (in Billion Kilowatthours) Steam Coal Production in U.S. (in million tons) Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration 789 896 370 522 715 942 3,330 1,979 107 122 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2004 2030 Nuclear Renewables Natural Gas Coal Oil 3,975 5,797 1,705 1,112 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2004 2030 |
![]() 10 Key Long-Term Drivers in Coal Market Key Long-Term Drivers in Coal Market The long-term outlook for the US coal market is positive due to a variety of emerging macro trends Projected utility, industrial and steel growth, coupled with new coal initiatives such as coal gasification and CTL, will increase demand for coal In addition, the rising cost of alternative fuels, such as oil, natural gas, and uranium, makes coal the cheapest source of energy Stringent domestic environmental laws, coupled with tighter federal and state regulations, will further constrain the supply of coal Escalating mining costs and the depletion of high quality reserves will also constrain low cost supply Energy demands in China and India, and other developing countries, will result in more US coal exports over time Worldwide infrastructure congestion will constrain exports for many years, which will only exacerbate demand |
![]() 11 Coal Production and Pricing Outlook Coal Production and Pricing Outlook Total year-to-date US coal production is down 2% versus 2006 owing to a variety of factors Voluntary shut-ins at high cost mines, particularly in the Central Appalachian region Mine-specific issues such as geological and production problems The spot market continues to show improvement and has reacted to a favorable supply / demand outlook Overseas demand and infrastructure challenges are driving US coal offshore Utilities are willing to sign long term contracts to supply newly installed scrubber technology Scrubbing will play an increasingly important role in coal pricing dynamics High Btu, high sulfur coal located near scrubbed power generation facilities should command a higher price Utilities will increasingly optimize their purchase of coal by maximizing heat net of transportation costs Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration 1 1 YTD as of June. YTD as of June. Production by Basin (in 000 short tons)¹ (6.4)% (6.4)% - - Growth Growth 569,381 569,381 581,188 581,188 Total Total (2.0)% (2.0)% Growth Growth (0.5)% (0.5)% - - Growth Growth 67,555 67,555 72,138 72,138 Other Other 30,537 30,537 30,678 30,678 Uinta Basin Uinta Basin (0.3)% (0.3)% - - Growth Growth 238,274 238,274 239,089 239,089 Powder River Basin Powder River Basin 6.6% 6.6% - - Growth Growth 50,287 50,287 47,173 47,173 Illinois Basin Illinois Basin (6.5)% (6.5)% - - Growth Growth 60,045 60,045 64,206 64,206 Northern Appalachia Northern Appalachia (4.1)% (4.1)% - - Growth Growth 122,683 122,683 127,904 127,904 Central Appalachia Central Appalachia 2007 YTD 2007 YTD 2006 YTD 2006 YTD Location
Location
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![]() 12 Historical and Spot Coal Prices Historical and Spot Coal Prices Historic Spot Price Historic Spot Price Forward Curve Forward Curve Source: Source: Energy Information Administration Energy Information Administration $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 Jan-05 Jul-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Weekly from 01-Jan-2005 to 02-Nov-2007 Central Appalachia Powder River Northern Appalachia Illinois Basin $49.90 $11.05 $33.50 $46.50 Central Appalachia - 29-Sept-06 Central Appalachia - 30-Sept-07 PRB 8800 - 29-Sept-06 PRB 8800 - 30-Sept-07 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 Oct-06 Aug-07 Jun-08 Apr-09 Feb-10 Dec-10 Monthly from Oct-06 to Dec-10 $57.61 $50.15 $12.85 $12.40 |
![]() 13 III. Outlook for Alliance III. Outlook for Alliance |
![]() 14 Alliance Snapshot Alliance Snapshot Alliance operates eight underground Alliance operates eight underground mining complexes in all major eastern mining complexes in all major eastern coal producing regions coal producing regions Diversified reserve position in the Illinois Diversified reserve position in the Illinois Basin, Central Appalachia and Northern Basin, Central Appalachia and Northern Appalachia regions Appalachia regions Four significant organic development Four significant organic development projects identified in the growing Illinois projects identified in the growing Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachia high sulfur Basin and Northern Appalachia high sulfur coal markets coal markets 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 4 4 9 9 8 8 12 12 11 11 10 10 Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana Ohio Ohio Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Virginia Virginia West West Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentucky 7 7 Current Mining Operation Current Mining Operation Future Growth Project Future Growth Project Transfer Terminal Transfer Terminal Pattiki Complex Pattiki Complex River View Complex River View Complex Dotiki Complex Dotiki Complex Mount Vernon Mount Vernon Transfer Terminal Transfer Terminal Warrior Complex Warrior Complex Hopkins Complex Hopkins Complex Gibson Complex Gibson Complex Pontiki Complex Pontiki Complex MC Mining Complex MC Mining Complex Tunnel Ridge Complex Tunnel Ridge Complex Penn Ridge Complex Penn Ridge Complex Mettiki Complex Mettiki Complex 3 3 4 4 1 1 2 2 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 |
![]() 15 Reserves 2006 Central Appalachia 5% Northern Appalachia 23% Illinois Basin 72% Operations Summary Operations Summary 2006 Summary (MM Tons) 2006 Production Northern Appalachia 14% Central Appalachia 15% Illinois Basin 71% Select Customers Reserve Production Illinois Basin 712.0 23.7 Total Company1 163.5 3.3 Region Total Allegheny Energy 56.7 Penn Ridge 70.5 Tunnel Ridge Virginia Electric Power 36.3 3.3 Mettiki / Mettiki WV Northern Appalachia 37.4 3.5 Region Total Progress; NRG; East KY Power 20.7 1.9 MC Mining Progress; Ontario Power 16.7 1.6 Pontiki Central Appalachia 511.1 16.9 Region Total1 82.7 0.0 Gibson (South) Duke Energy; Alabama Electric 31.8 3.6 Gibson (North) 110.0 River View Tampa Electric; TVA 63.5 1.6 Hopkins Corn Products; LG&E 44.4 2.5 Pattiki Synfuel Solutions; LG&E 50.4 4.5 Warrior1 Seminole; TVA 128.3 4.7 Dotiki1 1 Includes Providence reserves (20-Jun-2007). |
![]() 16 Alliances Long Term Growth Strategy Alliances Long Term Growth Strategy Capitalize on the expected strong demand growth in Capitalize on the expected strong demand growth in scrubber quality coal scrubber quality coal Continue to be a disciplined producer, bring on projects Continue to be a disciplined producer, bring on projects only with sufficient sales commitments only with sufficient sales commitments Continuous operational optimization Continuous operational optimization Pursue opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions Pursue opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions |
![]() 17 Large Inventory of Organic Growth Projects Large Inventory of Organic Growth Projects Permitting in progress Estimated capital cost ~ $195 $210 million Estimated reserves ~ 70 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 6 million tons/year Initial production in 2009 2010 Tunnel Ridge Initiating permitting process Estimated capital cost ~ $165 $175 million Estimated reserves ~ 57 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 5 million tons/year Initial production in 2009 2011 Penn Ridge Constructing slope and shaft Estimated capital cost ~ $130 $160 million Estimated reserves ~ 110 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 3.1 4.6 million tons/year Initial production in 2009 2010 River View Permitting in progress Estimated capital cost ~ $100 $110 million Estimated reserves ~ 83 million tons medium sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 2.7 3.1 million tons/year Initial production in 2009 2010 Gibson South Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana Ohio Ohio Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Virginia Virginia West West Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentucky Note: Estimated capital costs are based on 2006 dollars and exclude capitalized development and
interest expenses. Timing of anticipated initial production dependent upon obtaining
required permits and customer contracts |
![]() 18 Focus on Safety Focus on Safety Safety is our #1 core value Alliances safety performance has been consistently better than its industry peer group Innovative use of technology to improve safety at all operations State-of-the-art Leaky Feeder mine communication systems Fiber optic based mine monitoring systems Proprietary Miner Tracking systems Alliance Safety Comparison 1997-2007 YTD 1 Nonfatal days lost (NFDL). 5.6 7.6 4.8 6.4 4.7 5.7 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.8 2.7 8.6 9.1 8.4 8.5 7.3 7.4 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Alliance NFDL Industry Average |
![]() 19 Well Positioned in Scrubber Markets Well Positioned in Scrubber Markets Future growth potential for scrubber market bodes well for Alliances high
sulfur operations Source: The McIlvaine Company 1 Assumption used to convert gigawatts of capacity to million tons of coal: 9,600 Btu/Kwhr plant heat rate, 75% plant capacity factor, 12,500 Btu coal. Projected Eastern U.S. Installed Scrubber Capacity 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 129 76 35 11 4 188 200 238 248 272 308 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Baseline Scrubber Capacity Incremental Scrubber Capacity 12,500 Btu Equivalent 12,500 Btu Equivalent |
![]() 20 Indiana Indiana Ohio Ohio Maryland Maryland Virginia Virginia West West Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentucky Approximately 676 million tons is Scrubber Quality Coal Illinois Basin: Second largest producer in the basin Currently accounts for ~74% of total Alliance coal production Northern Appalachian: Strong reserve base of ~164 million tons of high and medium sulfur coal Currently accounts for ~13% of total Alliance coal production Well Positioned in Scrubber Markets Well Positioned in Scrubber Markets Current Mining Operations Current Mining Operations Future Growth Project Future Growth Project Transfer Terminal Transfer Terminal Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Illinois Illinois |
![]() 21 IV. Financial Summary and IV. Financial Summary and Historical Results Historical Results |
![]() 22 Consistent Track Record of Growth At Alliance Consistent Track Record of Growth At Alliance ($ in millions) ($ in millions) Note: EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure defined as income before net interest
expense, income taxes and depreciation, depletion and amortization. See
reconciliation slide of EBITDA to Net Income 1 Based on the midpoint of management guidance. EBITDA EBITDA Cash Flow from Operations Cash Flow from Operations $110.3 $145.1 $193.6 $245.0 $270.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E¹ Production Production Revenue Revenue $523.2 $623.5 $799.6 $920.0 $992.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E¹ $119.0 $147.9 $230.1 $250.0 $260.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E¹ 24.4 23.7 22.3 20.4 19.2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E¹ |
![]() 23 17.2% 19.4% 16.2% 13.7% 11.3% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007YTD 21.9% 22.6% 27.4% 25.9% 25.9% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007YTD Efficient Operator Efficient Operator Alliance is a low-cost, efficient coal operator, delivering sector-leading
EBITDA margins 5 Year Average: Alliance: 24.7% vs. Peers: 15.6% Source: Public filings Note: EBITDA margin represents EBITDA / Total Revenues. EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. See reconciliation slide of EBITDA to Net Income
1 Coal Peers include: Alpha, Arch, Consol, Foundation, Massey and Peabody. Alliance Coal Peers¹ Average: 24.7% Average: 24.7% Average: 15.6% Average: 15.6% |
![]() 24 53.7% 40.7% 18.2% 15.6% 5.8% 3.6% 8.4% 34.1% 14.6% $3,191 $2,190 $341 $304 $84 $67 $132 $733 $136 Overview of Coal Sector Legacy Liabilities Overview of Coal Sector Legacy Liabilities Source: Latest Company Filings 1 Includes market cap of Alliance Resource and Alliance Holdings, adjusted for Alliance
Holdings ownership in Alliance Resource. Gross Legacy Liabilities ($mm) Legacy Liabilities as % of Market Cap Peer A Peer B Peer C Peer E Peer F Alliance Peer H Peer D Peer G Alliance1 Peer A Peer F Peer E Peer B Peer C Peer G Peer D Peer H |
![]() 25 V. Investing in Alliance V. Investing in Alliance |
![]() 26 Two Ways to Invest in Alliance Partnerships Two Ways to Invest in Alliance Partnerships 56.9% L.P. Interest 42.1% L.P. Interest 1.98% General Partner Interest2 Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (NASDAQ: AHGP) 59.9 million units outstanding Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) 36.6 million units outstanding Public Unitholders Management / Others¹ 80.0% L.P. Interest Public Unitholders 20.0% L.P. Interest IDRs Distribution growth from Alliance Resource benefits all unitholders Strong alignment of interests throughout the Alliance Partnerships Management owns significant interests directly in Alliance Holdings and indirectly
in Alliance Resource 1 Includes control group comprised of present and former members of Alliance Resource management. 2 Includes general partner interest held directly in Alliance Resources Intermediate
Partnership. |
![]() 27 Alliance Partnership Profiles Alliance Partnership Profiles 8.2% 8.2% 29.8% 29.8% $1,639mm $1,639mm $1,487mm $1,487mm 1.74x 1.74x $2.24 $2.24 $40.67 $40.67 ARLP ARLP $24.35 $24.35 Unit Price (11/12/07): Unit Price (11/12/07): $1,458mm $1,458mm Equity Market Cap: Equity Market Cap: 0.0% 0.0% Net Debt / Book Cap: Net Debt / Book Cap: $1,458mm $1,458mm Enterprise Value: Enterprise Value: $1.06 $1.06 Distribution: Distribution: AHGP AHGP NASDAQ Symbol:` NASDAQ Symbol:` 0.0% 0.0% Net Debt / Enterprise Value: Net Debt / Enterprise Value: 1.01x 1.01x Total Unit Coverage: Total Unit Coverage: Ownership Interests in Alliance Resource Ownership Interests in Alliance Resource 1.98% G.P. Interest 1.98% G.P. Interest 100% of Incentive Distribution Rights 100% of Incentive Distribution Rights 15.5 mm Alliance Resource common 15.5 mm Alliance Resource common units units 4th largest eastern coal producer 4th largest eastern coal producer operating 8 underground mining operating 8 underground mining complexes complexes 712 million tons of reserves at June 712 million tons of reserves at June 20, 2007 following Providence 20, 2007 following Providence reserve acquisition reserve acquisition Asset Profile: Asset Profile: |
![]() 28 Alliance Holdings Leverage to Alliance Alliance Holdings Leverage to Alliance Resource Growth Resource Growth Incentive distribution rights provide Alliance Holdings unitholders with significant financial leverage to Alliance Resource distribution growth Note: This graph shows the impact to Alliance Holdings as a result of Alliance Resource raising or
lowering its quarterly distribution from the current announced quarterly distribution of $0.56
per common unit ($2.24 annualized). This information is presented for illustrative
purposes only and is not intended to be a prediction of future performance $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $1.84 $1.94 $2.04 $2.14 $2.24 $2.34 $2.44 $2.54 $2.64 Hypothetical Alliance Resource Annual Distribution per L.P. Unit L.P. Interest G.P. Interest IDRs Current Alliance Resource Distribution ($2.24 per unit) Alliance Resource Distribution at Alliance Holdings IPO ($1.84 per unit) Hypothetical Distributions to Alliance Holdings |
![]() 29 Share Price Performance Versus Peers Source: Factset Note: Coal Peers include: Alpha, Arch, Consol, Foundation, International Coal, James
River, Massey, Natural Resource Partners, Peabody and Penn Virginia. 3-Year Year-To-Date Alliance Resource Alliance Holdings Coal Peers Alerian MLP Index S&P 500 Index 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% Jan-2007 Mar-2007 Jun-2007 Aug-2007 Nov-2007 Daily from 01-Jan-2007 to 12-Nov-2007 17.8% 23.2% 1.5% 6.5% 20.7% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% Nov-2004 Aug-2005 May-2006 Feb-2007 Nov-2007 Daily from 12-Nov-2004 to 12-Nov-2007 30.3% (3.0%) 21.5% 20.6% 54.5% |
![]() 30 Appendix Appendix |
![]() 31 Alliance EBITDA Reconciliation Alliance EBITDA Reconciliation 2007E Mid-Point 2006 2005 2004 2003 $160,000 $172,927 $160,010 $76,621 $47,902 Net Income (200) 161 Minority Interest Income 112 Cumulative Effect of Accounting Change (2,400) (2,443) (2,682) (2,641) (2,577) Income Taxes (10,600) (9,175) (11,816) (14,963) (15,981) Interest Expense (87,200) (66,489) (55,637) (53,664) (52,495) Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization $260,000 $250,761 $230,145 $147,889 $118,955 EBITDA 2,400 2,443 2,682 2,641 2,577 Income Taxes 10,600 9,175 11,816 14,963 15,981 Interest Expense (31,400) (9,429) 26,577 (12,405) (8,240) Net Effect of Changes in Operating Assets and Liabilities (300) 69 (2,057) (255) 353 Other (319) (573) (488) (687) Coal Inventory Adjustment to Market (2,400) (2,101) (1,918) (1,622) (1,341) Reclamation and Mine Closing $270,000 $250,923 $193,618 $145,055 $110,312 Cash Flow Provided by Operating Activities Note: EBITDA is defined as income before net interest expense, income taxes and depreciation, depletion and amortization. Management believes EBITDA is a useful indicator of its ability to meet debt service and capital expenditure requirements and uses EBITDA as a measure of operating performance. EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to net income, income from operations, cash flows from operating activities or any other measure of financial performance presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. EBITDA is not intended to represent cash flow and does not represent the measure of cash available for distribution. The Partnership's method of computing EBITDA may not be the same method used to compute similar measures reported by other companies, or EBITDA may be computed differently by the Partnership in different contexts (i.e. public reporting versus computation under financing agreements). Estimate midpoint reflects the Partnerships most recent guidance |
![]() 32 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. RBC Capital Markets RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference MLP Conference November 15, 2007 November 15, 2007 |