![]() Raymond James Coal Investor Conference December 4, 2008 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. Exhibit 99.2 ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** *************************************************** |
![]() 2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that are based
on the beliefs of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. and Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (the Partnerships) and
those of their respective general partners (the General Partners),
as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to them. When used in this presentation, words such as anticipate, project, expect, plan, goal, forecast, intend, could, believe, may, and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of the Partnerships for future operations, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although the Partnerships and their General Partners believe that such expectations
reflected in such forward- looking statements are reasonable at the time
such statements are made, neither the Partnerships nor the General Partners can give assurances that such expectations will prove to be correct. Such
statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and
assumptions. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize,
or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary
materially from those the Partnerships anticipated, estimated, projected or
expected. The Partnerships have no obligation to publicly update or
revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. |
![]() Industry Overview ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ********* ****** * * * * * |
![]() 4 Macro Coal Overview Hedge fund deleveraging Financial coal traders exiting the market Reduced availability of capital Instinct to preserve capital countered by
. Anticipated 2009 2010 cash flow
surge Alternative energy investments Liquidity Crunch Liquidity Crunch Demand destruction Demand destruction China, India and global economic slowdown Domestic energy consumption Natural gas competition mitigated by
. Base load nature of coal Recessionary pressures Recessionary pressures Hyperinflation has been arrested |
![]() 5 Macro Coal Overview Positives Acknowledged importance of coal Generates ~50% of U.S. electricity Employs hundreds of thousands of Americans Provides millions in tax revenues to coal states Americas most
abundant low-cost fuel source Economic stimulus and commitment to U.S. jobs Infrastructure investments will increase energy demand Investment in Clean Coal technology Negatives Challenging legislative/regulatory landscape Climate change
Cap & Trade? Structure? Renewable energy standard Union influence Card
Check New MSHA Obama and a Democratic Congress Obama and a Democratic Congress (1) Energy Information Administration 1 |
![]() 6 Domestic Coal Supply Outlook Reduced investment capital and credit capacity Lack of equipment availability MSHA productivity declines Permitting delays and litigation Labor shortages are still a factor High cost operations at risk International production constraints continue Short Term Supply Short Term Supply Will Be Lower Will Be Lower Long Term Supply Long Term Supply Governmental action Depletion of low cost reserves |
![]() 7 Domestic Coal Demand Outlook Short Term Demand Short Term Demand Will Be Lower Due To Will Be Lower Due To Worldwide Economic Downturn Worldwide Economic Downturn Met market Steel production cuts Coal pricing U.S. vs Australian production U.S. currency value PCI market Steam coal Natural gas competition Stockpiles are normal? |
![]() 8 Domestic Coal Demand Outlook Long Term Demand Long Term Demand Positives New power plants 29
coal-fired plants (16.5GW) currently under construction in the U.S.
Economic stimulus programs
U.S. $700B / China $600B Met market will return U.S. currency will reverse BTU conversion technologies
coal to gas / liquids Clean coal technology investments Negatives Climate change Renewable energy standard Conservation / energy efficiency smart meters,
save-a-watt programs
Natural gas competition
price/demand volatility, depletion, capital constraints (1) U.S. Department of Energy, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power
Plants, June 2008 1 |
![]() 9 Summary - Domestic Coal Outlook Despite challenges
. Despite challenges
. Coal has been and is best positioned to Coal has been and is best positioned to remain the Cornerstone of Americas remain the Cornerstone of Americas Electric Energy Future Electric Energy Future |
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![]() 11 Alliance Snapshot 1 1 10 10 2 2 3 3 4 4 9 9 7 7 6 6 8 8 12 12 11 11 Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana Ohio Ohio Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Virginia Virginia West West Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentucky Current Mining Operation Current Mining Operation Future Growth Project Future Growth Project Transfer Terminal Transfer Terminal Pattiki Complex Pattiki Complex River View Complex River View Complex Dotiki Complex Dotiki Complex Mount Vernon Mount Vernon Transfer Terminal Transfer Terminal Warrior Complex Warrior Complex Hopkins Complex Hopkins Complex Gibson Complex Gibson Complex Pontiki Complex Pontiki Complex MC Mining Complex MC Mining Complex Tunnel Ridge Complex Tunnel Ridge Complex Penn Ridge Complex Penn Ridge Complex Mettiki Complex Mettiki Complex 9 9 Fifth largest coal producer in the eastern United States Eight underground mining complexes in all major eastern coal producing regions Significant organic development projects in the growing Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachia markets Marketable coal reserves of ~713 million tons at 12/31/07 FY2008 estimated coal sales of 26.8 to 27.3 million tons and revenue of $1.03 to $1.1 billion Overview 5 5 2 2 1 1 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 |
![]() 12 Consistent Track Record of Distribution Growth ARLP has increased quarterly distributions 40% since June 2006 AHGP has increased quarterly distributions 81% since June 2006 ARLP ARLP AHGP AHGP Source: Public filings $2.24 $2.34 $2.34 $2.64 $2.80 $2.00 $2.16 $2.16 $2.24 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00 $2.25 $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $1.06 $1.15 $1.15 $1.41 $1.56 $0.86 $1.00 $1.00 $1.06 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 |
![]() 13 Strong Realized Coal Price Growth (1) Based on guidance from October 27, 2008 earnings release. For 2008, estimate reflects midpoint of guidance. For 2009 estimate, the guidance range reflects an increase of 25% - 35% over the midpoint of 2008 estimated pricing. For 2010 estimate, the guidance range reflects an increase of 40% - 50% over the midpoint of 2008 estimated pricing. $53.74 $49.76 $55.74 $59.72 $39.81 Strong Coal Sales Commitments Committed and priced coal sales 2009 ~ 90% 2010 ~ 80% Executed agreements during the 2008Q3 for 22.9 million tons Terms up to 10 years Prices 65% above historical levels Estimated Coal Sales Price/Ton (1) $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 2008(e) 2009(e) 2010(e) ` |
![]() 14 Alliances Long Term Growth Strategy Capitalize on the expected strong demand growth in scrubber quality coal Continue to be a disciplined producer - project developments tied to sales commitments Continuous focus on safety and operational optimization Pursue opportunistic acquisitions |
![]() 15 Large Inventory of Organic Growth Projects Construction in progress Estimated capital cost ~ $265 $285 million Estimated reserves ~ 70 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 6 million tons/year Initial longwall production in 2010Q4 Tunnel Ridge Initiating permitting process Estimated capital cost ~ $165 $175 million Estimated reserves ~ 57 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 5 million tons/year Initial production in 2011 2013 Penn Ridge Construction in progress Estimated capital cost ~ $250 $275 million Estimated reserves ~ 117 million tons high sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 6.4 million tons/year Initial production in 2009Q4 River View Permitting in progress Estimated capital cost ~ $100 $110 million Estimated reserves ~ 83 million tons medium sulfur coal Production capacity ~ 2.7 3.1 million tons/year Initial production in 2010 2012 Gibson South Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana Ohio Ohio Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Maryland Maryland Virginia Virginia West West Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentucky Note: Estimated capital costs are based on 2008 dollars and exclude capitalized
development and interest expenses. Timing of anticipated initial production dependent upon obtaining required permits and customer contracts.
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![]() 16 Well Capitalized and Well Positioned for Growth 2003YE 2004YE 2005YE 2005YE 2006YE 2006YE 2007YE 2007YE 92.1% 64.3% 34.1% 30.1% 32.5% Source: Public filings Net Debt as Percentage of Capitalization 2008Q3 2008Q3 24.14% Strong Balance Sheet $350 million private placement of Senior Notes completed 06/26/08 $205 million at 6.28% due 2015 $145 million at 6.72% due 2018 Existing $150 million revolving credit facility expires in 2012 Liquidity of ~$380 million available at 2008Q3 Current debt obligation of $18 million Visible cash flow growth |
![]() Raymond James Coal Investor Conference December 4, 2008 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ********************************************* |