Exhibit
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
CORPORATE
PARTICIPANTS
Ryan
McGrath
Lambert,
Edwards & Associates - IR
Leigh
Abrams
Drew
Industries Inc. - CEO
Fred
Zinn
Drew
Industries Inc. - President
Joe
Giordano
Drew
Industries Inc. - CFO, Treasurer
Jason
Lippert
Lippert
Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
CONFERENCE
CALL PARTICIPANTS
Toren
Eastburn
CJS
Securities - Analyst
Scott
Stember
Sidoti
& Co. - Analyst
Ed
Aaron
RBC
Capital Markets - Analyst
David
Wells
Avondale
Partners - Analyst
Jamie
Wyland
Wyland
Management - Analyst
Peter
Ezell
Matter
Capital - Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good
day,
ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the third-quarter 2008 Drew Industries
Inc.
earnings conference call. My name is Amity and I will be your coordinator for
today. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the presentation over
to your host for today's call, Mr. Ryan McGrath of Lambert,
Edwards.
Ryan
McGrath -
Lambert, Edwards & Associates - IR
Good
morning, everyone. Welcome to Drew Industries 2008 third-quarter conference
call. I'm Ryan McGrath of Lambert, Edwards, Drew's investor relations firm.
I
have with me today members of Drew's management team, including Leigh Abrams,
CEO and Director of Drew, Fred Zinn, President and Director of Drew, Jason
Lippert, President and CEO of Lippert Components and a Director of Drew, and
Joe
Giordano, CFO and Treasurer of Drew.
I
want to
take a few minutes to discuss our quarterly results. However, before we do
so,
it is my responsibility to inform you that certain statements made in today's
conference call regarding Drew Industries and its operations may be considered
forward-looking statements under the securities laws. As a result, I must
caution you that there are a number of factors, many of which are beyond the
Company's control, which could cause actual results and events to differ
materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These factors
are identified in our press releases, our Form 10-K for the year ended 2007,
and
our subsequent Form 10-Q, all filed with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn
the call over to Leigh Abrams.
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Good
morning and welcome to all of you on this call and to all of those listening
on
the Internet.
Before
we
begin today's call, let me begin by noting the recent retirement announcement
of
David Webster, who has been Kinro's longtime president and CEO and a good friend
of all of us. David has been with Kinro for over 30 years and has been with
Drew
since we merged with Kinro in 1980. And I can truly say that David's
contribution to Drew over the years has just been totally exceptional, and
he is
truly one of the main reasons that today Drew is a respected and a profitable
company. We just can't thank David for his service over the years. We're going
to certainly miss David's expertise and his good humor, but we're confident
that
-- with our ability to call upon David whenever his advice is needed. So, all
I
can say is, publicly, thank you, David.
Since
everyone else in these days is focusing on how bad business and the economy
are,
I will begin today's call with some good news for a change. First, Drew was
profitable for the third-quarter and year-to-date periods. And I think in this
economy, that's quite an accomplishment. Second, the RV and manufactured housing
dealer network is seeing their inventories come down and getting lower. That's
again a very positive sign for the industry.
Thirdly,
home sales, both new and used, have recently shown some signs of improvement,
albeit spotty around the country. And finally, gas prices, at least temporarily,
have decreased significantly.
Rising
home sales are probably the result of the lower selling prices, but whatever
the
reason, there is some indication that the country's inventory of unsold homes
is
at least beginning to decline. I believe this process must continue before
home
prices and consumer confidence, which is now at an historic low, begin to
recover, and thus the economy as a whole and the RV industry in particular
begins to recover.
As
we
know, the consumer confidence index has been key to the RV industry over the
years, so we're really looking for that to recover and we just don't think
it's
here yet.
And
with
respect to the RV and manufactured housing industries, both retail and wholesale
sales are down significantly and seem to be getting worse each month. September
RV wholesale shipments were down an aggregate of 43%, with travel trailer and
fifth-wheel shipments down 39%, and motorhome shipments down 62%. Travel trailer
and fifth wheel, again that's our primary business, wholesale shipments were
down 8% in the 2008 first quarter, 18% in the second quarter, 38% in the third
quarter, and 21% now year-to-date.
Industry
retail sales for September are not yet available but are expected to be bad.
Year-to-date through August, retail sales of travel trailer and fifth wheels
were down 20%. When you compare this to wholesale shipments, that confirms
the
decline in dealer inventories. Dealer surveys, as well as information from
our
customers, indicate that the RV dealers are aggressively seeking to currently
further reduce inventories during the traditionally slower fall and winter
seasons. Although this indicates further reductions in current production of
RVs
that use our products, we anticipate increased demand when the economy recovers
and dealers restock their inventories.
In
addition to the state of the general economy, it appears that one of the major
stumbling blocks to new growth in the RV industry is tight credit, which
hopefully will now improve with the recent actions by the federal
government.
With
respect to the manufactured housing industry, after some promising signs early
in the year, the industry has tracked the rest of the economy and is now down
10% through August '08, with the month of August being down 23%, but there
were
two less shipping days in this August than last year.
However,
I think the long-term prospects for the manufactured housing industry recovers
-- for manufactured housing industry recovery continues to be good, and as
you
know, we have been saying that for years. But really, all the conditions seem
to
be in place, with today's manufactured house we know is the best buy in the
country.
And
further, the industry continues to work on putting together an industry image
campaign. And we hope this campaign will be introduced to the public during
2009.
We
believe several factors point to a recovery in the manufactured housing
industry. These include the lack of sub-prime financing for site-built housing,
the eventual return to the manufactured housing industry of retirees who have
unwilling or unable to sell their homes at the severely depressed prices, and
the federal housing legislation, which was signed into a law a few months ago.
This legislation increases from about $49,000 to $70,000 the amount of chattel
mortgage that can be guaranteed by the FHA, and it also offers a tax credit
of
up to $7,500 to first-time home buyers. Both of these provisions should directly
help buyers of manufactured homes, but it will take the government a while
to
get all the mechanisms in place for this.
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
In
addition, it appears that interest rates are declining. And that, hopefully,
will also help the housing market.
Despite
today's grim business environment, including the two industries that we serve,
I'm pleased to report the following about Drew. We continue to be profitable,
to
generate positive cash flow, to have a very strong balance sheet with very
little debt, to increase our market shares, to introduce new products, to make
acquisitions with two being completed for cash so far this year, to seek cost
savings wherever possible, and to offer our customers great service and quality
products at reasonable prices.
Due
to
the current business environment, we continue to seek operating improvements
and
cost reductions, with Jason Lippert now responsible for the operations of both
Kinro and Lippert. Jason, along with the management from both companies, will
seek to implement as many synergies and other cost savings as possible without
sacrificing quality or customer service. Further, with the joint talents of
the
executives of both companies, we will continue to aggressively attempt to
increase our market share and develop new products.
We're
very fortunate to have had the talents of both David Webster and Jason Lippert.
And both gentlemen, both leaders have built a terrific pool of extraordinary
management talent who will now work together to make Drew an even better
company.
I
will
now ask Fred, our president, to say a few words.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
Because
the current conditions in the broader economy and in our industries are beyond
our control, we focused our attention on the key areas that we can control,
namely, aggressively pursuing market share growth, product development, and
cost
reductions. These actions will enable us to grow over the long term and help
us
maintain our strong balance sheet and our position as an industry
leader.
As
you
know, we have been actively controlling costs now for more than two years.
We've
closed more than 20 facilities and eliminated more than $12 million in fixed
costs. However, recently we've really renewed our efforts in this area. We're
currently implementing plans to close or mothball at least five additional
manufacturing facilities over the next couple of quarters. And we continue
to
explore additional consolidation opportunities. We're analyzing all other
potential reductions to fixed costs and we recently eliminated more than
$500,000 of insurance and other administrative costs, with more savings to
follow.
As
you
know, we also reduced our capital expenditures, which averaged $25 million
annually from 2004 through 2006, to about $5 million this year. And in the
last
2.5 years, we've collected more than $25 million from the sale of
facilities.
At
the
same time, we have to be cautious not to cut so deeply that it would impair
our
ability to grow once the market conditions improve. For instance, we continue
to
invest in product development. This is a key to our growth, both now and when
the economy recovers.
Our
goal
is to maximize profitability while preserving our strong balance sheet, so
that
we will be able to take advantage of strategic opportunities that will likely
become available during these difficult times. For example, over the past few
months, we've gained market share from some competitors that were forced to
cease operations or, in some cases, were just unable to compete effectively
during the severe industry contraction. And we anticipate that additional
opportunities like these will arise in the coming quarters.
Because
of our quality products and outstanding customer service, we also anticipate
other opportunities will arise to expand our market share in several product
lines. In particular, we're aggressively pursuing new business in our new
upholstered furniture and bedding product lines. We will be taking advantage
of
a fragmented regional market and leveraging our marketing and manufacturing
capabilities and look to gain significant market share in this product over
the
long term.
We're
also focusing with renewed intensity on new product development. For example,
we're working diligently with our customers in their efforts to build RVs and
address customer concerns about high fuel costs, energy conservation, and the
need for greener products.
Another
key factor is a careful, disciplined acquisition strategy. In this market,
we
have to be even more cautious than usual about our acquisition opportunities
because we intend to preserve our financial strength. And we will also be more
cautious in evaluating other investment opportunities, including our stock
buyback program. But as we've said before, caution doesn't mean that we avoid
all risks. It means we will critically evaluate many, many opportunities to
find
just those few where we're likely to control the risks and reap the
rewards.
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Another
key to our success has been, and will continue to be, our incentive compensation
plan. Most of you are familiar with the plan but I will just take a minute
to
reiterate that the compensation of our management consists primarily of
profit-based performance incentives. Therefore, in a period such as this, where
we're seeing declining profits, management shares the pain with our
stockholders, both through lower compensation and through the lower value of
our
Drew shares and options. And in many cases, that represents a very significant
portion of our individual net worth. As a result, we are highly motivated to
maximize Drew's operating efficiencies, profitability, and long-term
potential.
Despite
current economic and industry conditions, however, we remain optimistic about
the long-term future of the industries -- the RV and manufactured housing
industries, and of Drew. We're confident in Drew's ability to weather this
perfect storm and to come out of this period as an even stronger
company.
While
the
balance of 2008 and 2009 are likely to be extremely challenging, while our
industries continue to suffer, we know that our experienced management team
and
dedicated and talented employees are up to the task. Now I will ask Joe, our
CFO, to give you some additional color about results this quarter.
Joe
Giordano -
Drew Industries Inc. - CFO, Treasurer
Our
operating management has been proactive with respect to the industry slowdowns,
by streamlining operations, closing facilities, and reducing other fixed costs
wherever possible. During the 2008 third quarter, fixed-cost reductions added
$1.1 million to operating profit as compared to the 2007 third quarter. These
fixed-cost reductions are expected to benefit operating profit by over $5
million for all of 2008, in addition to the $6 million in savings we realized
in
2007.
Further,
these previously implemented fixed-cost reductions will have a positive impact
on 2009 operating profit, as compared to 2008, of over $1 million. These
estimates do not include the recently implemented $0.5 million of fixed-cost
reductions mentioned by Fred earlier.
Operating
results for the first six months of 2008 were negatively affected by
higher-than-average health insurance costs due to higher number of large claims.
These costs moderated during the third quarter of 2008 and were lower than
the
third quarter of 2007, but were still higher than we have typically
experienced.
SG&A
costs were 16.5% of 2008 third-quarter sales, up from 13.4% in the third quarter
of 2007, as smaller truckloads, higher fuel costs, and increase in bad-debt
expense and the spreading of fixed costs over a smaller sales base more than
offset the additional cost-cutting measures and a significant reduction in
incentive compensation due to lower profits.
Stock-based
compensation is currently running about $800,000 per quarter. In the past,
Drew
has typically granted stock options to employees every other year at our Board
of Directors meeting in November. Beginning in 2008, we will grant stock options
annually, but with a reduced number of shares. As always, the option exercise
price will be based upon the closing price of the stock on the day before the
Board meeting. I expect the stock-based compensation expense in 2009 to remain
constant.
Over
the
past few weeks, we have begun to see an easing in the prices for certain of
our
raw materials from the recent highs we experienced. However, raw material prices
remain very volatile and we still have high-cost inventory that will last us
into early 2009. Based on lower current sales volume, even with the recent
decline in prices, we now estimate these raw material cost increases will
aggregate approximately $40 million on an annualized basis.
In
the
third quarter of 2008, our effective tax rate decreased to 38.4%, from 39.4%
for
the six months ended June 2008. The third-quarter decrease in the Company's
effective tax rate was due primarily to the expiration of certain state and
federal statute of limitations and the completion of the 2005 federal audit
with
no adjustments. These items were partially offset by the estimated annual effect
of lower profits on state and federal tax rates.
We
are in
the process of tax audits in several jurisdictions and the outcome of these
audits could impact future tax expenses. We review our tax positions quarterly
based on the most recently available information and update our tax reserves
accordingly.
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
In
the
press release, we cited our content per RV, noting that it had increased 18%
for
the 12 months ended September 2008. September manufactured housing industry
production statistics are not yet available, but we estimate that our content
per manufactured home produced was approximately $1,600 for the 12 months ended
September 2008, consistent with the $1,615 reported for the 12 months ended
June
2008.
Compared
to the $1,826 per manufactured home reported for the 12 months ended September
2007, the content for the last 12 months declined 12%, partly due to a reduction
in the average size of homes produced by the manufactured housing industry
and
partly because we exited certain business in the latter half of 2007 due to
inadequate margins. We've gained market share in our MH segment in recent
months, but the rolling 12-month content does not yet fully include these recent
gains.
As
a
result of the continued downturns in our industries, during Q3 2008, the Company
conducted an impairment analysis on the goodwill and other intangible assets
in
our RV, manufactured housing, and marine and leisure operations. The estimated
fair value of these businesses currently exceeds the book value; thus, no
impairment was recorded. However, the declines in our industries have been
severe, in particular the marine and leisure industry, and we will continue
to
monitor these industries and our results. A continued downturn in these
industries or our profitability could result in a non-cash impairment charge
for
goodwill and other intangible assets in the future.
Our
$70
million line of credit will expire in June of 2009. Accordingly, the $5 million
of borrowings under the line of credit are classified as current debt in the
balance sheet. We are finalizing the documentation with JPMorgan Chase and
Wells
Fargo on a new, three-year $50 million line of credit and expect to be completed
within a month.
Further,
simultaneous with the completion of the line of credit, we expect to complete
with Prudential Capital Group an increase in our uncommitted shelf loan facility
from $25 million to $125 million.
At
September 30, 2008, the Company was in the process of selling five closed
facilities and some vacant land. The estimated fair value of this land and
buildings approximates the current book value of $4 million. Three of these
facilities, with a combined carrying cost of $1.1 million, are under contract
and scheduled to be sold in the fourth quarter of 2008 for book value. Effective
in the third quarter of 2008, facility dispositions have been reclassified
from
cost of goods sold to SG&A in the statements of income. Prior periods have
been reclassified to conform to this presentation.
Thank
you
for your time. Now I'll turn it back to Leigh.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Thank
you, Joe and Fred. And now, we would be happy to take questions.
QUESTION
AND ANSWER
Operator
(Operator
Instructions). Arnie Ursaner, CJS Securities.
Toren
Eastburn -
CJS Securities - Analyst
Good
morning, this is Toren Eastburn for Arnie. You spoke a little bit in the
beginning about how the credit crisis is impacting your business, but I was
wondering if you could expound on what it's doing to the dealers and their
ability to finance new inventory.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
It's
very, very tough on dealers. Some dealers have gone out of business. It would
not surprise me if additional dealers went out of business in the next 90 or
120
days. So it's having a tough time with dealers, but it's also having a tough
time with our customers. Even customers with good credit are having trouble
getting their loans. But we're hoping with all of infusions by the federal
government that that will now start to ease.
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Toren
Eastburn -
CJS Securities - Analyst
Can
you
also speak generally about what you're seeing in terms of price expectations
for
acquisitions?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
There
have been -- firstly, the acquisition pipeline has been very active. But as
I
indicated before, people have a certain number in their mind and it doesn't
really affect them if prices are down. They still want that same number. So,
sometimes in a down market, it becomes harder to make an acquisition. But these
are probably the worst times that I've seen in 20 or 30 years and accordingly,
there may be a greater appetite for people to sell now or they may be forced
to
sell. So, I think acquisition market is -- an acquisition pipeline is probably
pretty good right now. And it's just a question if we can get ourselves what
we
call a really good deal.
Toren
Eastburn -
CJS Securities - Analyst
Lastly,
you've talked in the past about possible growth opportunities in plastics.
Can
you give an update there?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
All
I can
say is we have our bath product line, along with a thermoforming line, and
we
have been very active, and particularly in the last couple of months, in pushing
those product lines. And there's lots of opportunities there that we would
hope
to seize upon in the next several months.
Toren
Eastburn -
CJS Securities - Analyst
Thank
you
for taking my questions.
Operator
Scott
Stember, Sidoti & Co.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
Can
you
maybe talk about pricing increases that went through to cover rising raw
material costs? How successful were you getting those through, and now with
material pricing coming down, how sticky will those prices be coming back
down?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I'm
going
to ask Fred to give you a brief statement and then I'm going to ask Jason to
fill you in with a little bit more detail.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
I
think
you saw that, in the press release, we said that material costs net of the
selling price increases cost us $0.06 to $0.08 this quarter, and it's going
to
get -- it will be less than that in the coming quarter. We -- during the
quarter, we had price increases go into effect during the third quarter and
they'll be fully in effect in the fourth quarter. So it will come down from
there. We will still be suffering a little bit. We still -- our raw material
costs have come down a little bit, but we still have some higher priced
inventory.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Jason,
you want to add to that?
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
No,
not
really. I mean, I think Fred covered it.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
And
if we
were to see that these raw materials were to continue to come down, obviously
prices would have to be adjusted the other way? Givebacks to your
customers?
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
Yes,
eventually, after inventory of higher-priced material runs dry. What remains
to
be seen on our end is just -- if the materials will stay where they have come
down to, at present. We've got to look more towards a longer-term stability
on
the price of raw materials before we decide to make a big decision to give
an
increase like -- or a decrease like that.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
And
in
some cases, you almost have to watch it daily. They go up and they go down.
Still very volatile.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
So
there
could be a quarter or two just from the timing of actual benefit, in
theory?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Could
be,
but I mean -- in today's markets, whatever may have been true a few years ago,
or a few months ago, even, is not necessarily true today, just. Things are
just
different and you have to respond on a daily basis to things that are
happening.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
And
I
think what Jason was saying is that we still have a couple months or a few
months left of the higher-priced inventory. It's not that we'll have a benefit.
We're trying to match our costs with our selling prices for the
customers.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
Understood.
And as far as the five facilities that you plan to close, what's the mix of
MH
versus RV?
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
It's
a
good question. There's some of both in there. I would say -- if I had to think
of it (multiple speakers).
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
Probably
50-50.
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
Yes,
yes.
I was going to say 40/60. But within that range.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
In
the
press release, there was a mention of an order with FEMA for about -- I think
it
was $8 million.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
$5
million. Jason, you want to fill us in on that?
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
What
specifically, past the numbers, do you need to know? Or would you like to
know?
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
Well,
just -- what it involves, what kind of --
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
They
are
-- the FEMA set up a bunch of new standards since the debacle with the travel
trailers. So they're homes now. They're park models and actual manufactured
houses, 14-foot by 60-foot houses, and some park models.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
So
it's
just basically -- the content on those.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
And
then,
past that I don't have a lot of understanding. I'm assuming that a lot of the
units that are built and sitting in the holding lots are not meeting current
new
FEMA specs. So they've got a whole new list of specs for manufacturers to build
to, and -- that's kind of where we are at.
Fred
Zinn
Just in addition, this is -- we're not guessing that we're going to get new
volume out of it, we know we're going to get new volume out of it. We have
gotten new volume out of it.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
We
have
been building FEMA product since about June, so it's just starting to really
pick up now through the winter, which will really help us out.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
It
was on
a much smaller scale than these new orders which just came through.
Scott
Stember -
Sidoti & Co. - Analyst
That's
all I have. Thank you.
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Operator
Ed
Aaron,
RBC Capital Markets.
Ed
Aaron -
RBC Capital Markets - Analyst
A
couple
questions for you. First of all, with the five plant closures, did you mention
the savings number that you expect to get from that?
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
We
have
not yet. We need still to develop that. It's clear that we need to close
facilities and there will be some reasonably good savings there, but we haven't
quantified it yet.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
And
if
you recall from the past, we generally don't have a lot of close-down costs
when
we close a facility.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
Right.
There would be very little of that.
Ed
Aaron -
RBC Capital Markets - Analyst
Just
thinking about the whole idea for the consolidation, maybe for you, Jason,
just
with you kind of managing the Kinro operations now, how much opportunity is
there to maybe integrate the two divisions more than they have in the past
to
help take more cost of the business, and further consolidate?
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
We're
evaluating a lot of that right now. And with the current industry climate,
specifically, it makes it a little bit tricky. If you looked at a snapshot
of
today's volume, you would think that there is probably a lot more that you
could
do than what you really should. So, Fred alluded earlier to not cutting too
deep, and our game plan right now is to take a few facilities that make sense
and do some integration and really look hard at synergies. There has been a
really good reception to a lot of that as we've spent time over the last five,
six weeks. I feel real good about it. It's a huge bright spot for us right
now.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
We
hope
that business will get better. I heard somebody say the other day, hope is
not a
business strategy. So, we may hope it gets better, but until it does, we're
going to take whatever steps we can to improve operations.
Ed
Aaron -
RBC Capital Markets - Analyst
Makes
sense. Then I know, certainly forecasting is tough, and I wouldn't blame you
if
you didn't want to talk at all about 2009. But what sort of -- when you look
out, what sort of incremental margin assumptions should we operate under? Can
you envision a scenario where sales are maybe down next year, but the margins
actually improve, given the combination of cost cutting and, hopefully, lower
commodity prices? And then finally, what is your level of confidence in your
ability to be profitable in the fourth quarter?
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I'll
answer the first a little bit first, then I'll ask Fred to fill you in. We
have
done a lot of really, really good things in the last year. And unfortunately,
they're just not being shown in the financials because the industry declines
are
so severe. But we have picked up really some very nice market share. Which
certainly will help margins. We've introduced lots of new products, and their
sales are just being buried in the industry declines.
So,
once
we even start to see a leveling out of sales, or even a small pick-up, you
will
see some pretty good gains from us. And, to get specific, in today's
environment, if we would try to be specific as to October, I don't know if
we
could be because you just don't know, with the effect of just daily declining
volume.
With
respect to the fourth quarter, I can only say that we don't normally give
estimates. I can tell you that the business environment is as bad as we have
ever seen it, and probably will be even worse in the fourth quarter. There's
no
secret that all of our customers are going to be taking a lot of time off in
the
fourth quarter. And in addition to that, we've just had some restructuring,
we
just had a bunch of retirements, so we will probably take some onetime
write-offs related to that. Very, very hard to judge what the fourth quarter
will be.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
I
think,
really, Leigh, you said it all. Specific answer to your question, I can envision
circumstances where the markets would be down, but we would still be able to
improve our margins. As I said, we are implementing significant cost cutting
and
we will see some benefits from that and from, hopefully, lower raw material
costs. But, in terms of certainty, I have no idea. I really -- it's impossible
to tell. I can tell you that we will be pretty good in terms of our performance
relative to the markets. But how far the markets go down, I don't
know.
Ed
Aaron -
RBC Capital Markets - Analyst
That's
a
fair answer, and you guys are doing a nice job, all things considered.
Thanks.
Operator
David
Wells, Avondale Partners.
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
Thanks
for taking my question. Good morning. Quick question, first off, if you look
at
the inventory number at the quarter-end, how much of an impact of that was
higher commodity prices or -- and then, how much of it was actually due to
increases in inventory -- tangible inventory?
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
It
was
part and part. I don't have the specifics, but I'm going to guess it was about
half and half, in that range. And I think, as we've said, we are looking to
reduce inventories. We did purchase quite a bit back in the July/August
timeframe, hoping to beat some of the price increases after that, that occurred
in August/September. And we're glad that we did that, but now we have to work
through those inventories so we're not -- we will be reducing our inventories
in
the coming quarters.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I'm
going
to be a little bit more specific. As I said, we don't normally talk about the
future, but at the end of September, we had $17 million of debt, a lot of it
being mortgage debt. We had $9 million of cash. Today, our cash is higher than
that and we expect it to be rather significantly higher by
year-end.
So,
we do
fully intend to reduce inventories and generate a lot of cash between now and
year-end. In today's environment, cash is king. We're going to be very, very
cautious to make sure that we maintain a very strong balance sheet during this
period. And again, as Fred said earlier, that doesn't mean that we won't take
risks if they're really good risks.
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
Secondly,
as you look at the dealer community, and with so many dealers going out of
business, what pushback are you seeing from a pricing perspective, from your
customers, as you try to push through those higher materials
prices?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Jason,
are you able to give any input on that? (multiple speakers)
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
Can
you
repeat the question again?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
What's
happening with the dealers, the input, with all the inventory coming back from
dealers? Is that affecting pricing in the retail market much?
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
The
manufacturers would be in a lot better spot to answer that question. But I
think
that -- it certainly is. When the inventory gets pushed back to the
manufacturers, they're having -- they've obviously got to get rid of it. They're
having to -- especially if they're older units, if they're older models, they're
having to discount those heavy because dealers want the newest model. They
don't
want the older model. So I think it's a large problem right now, that all the
--
because the dealers are having problems all over the place. It's affecting
all
manufacturers. So it's an industry problem.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
If
you
look at the reports of our customers that have come out, discounting is pretty
heavy. And of course, as dealers go under and their inventory comes back into
the chain, that affects production even further.
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
If
you
look at your customers, are you seeing a circumstance in which balance sheets
are really coming into effect in determining your ability to pass along pricing,
and some people don't have the wherewithal to accept (multiple
speakers)
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
We're
not
-- the passing along on the pricing has already come and gone. Now it's a matter
of just managing in the current environment, given the lower volumes. So, I
would say no.
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
I
guess,
as well, if we look at -- if we look at the fourth quarter and into 2009, from
a
gross margin perspective, what steps can you take to maintain your margins,
absent passing on price increases? Do you feel like there is some positive
(multiple speakers) steps that can be taken from that?
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I
think
we've already talked about that. We're actively working on closing factories,
actively working on synergies, actively working on every single cost that we
have in the company to see how we can cut it or control it. And, most important
in a down economy, is you see what you can do to increase sales. You try to
take
market share, you try to introduce new products, we made two acquisitions which
I think will grow nicely.
All
that
helps to spread your fixed costs over a larger sales base. You try to outperform
the industries, which I think we've done in the past. We're really pushing
very,
very hard to do that in the future. And as a lot of our competitors become
weaker, customers are turning to us because they know we have the financial
strength. And they have to be assured of their ability to get supply. I think
that's been happening and we have been seeing more and more of that happening.
One of our recent competitors went out of business and we picked up some market
share there, and we are continuing to pick up market share, particularly from
our weakened competitors.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
And
in a
lot of cases, they're not even our competitors. They're people that -- they're
suppliers that are building products that we could build, but because some
of
these guys aren't solvent anymore, we're picking up equipment and getting into
a
lot of new products a lot faster than we would have in an environment where
business was really good.
So,
new
products right now is probably a bigger part of our business than it ever has
been. We're spending a lot of time and energy developing new product to help
manufacturers get the products they used to get from people that aren't around
anymore.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
I
get the
sense from your question that you think that we're still going to be
significantly hurt by the higher raw material costs. I think once we work
through these next few months, we've pretty much balanced out the higher cost
with the selling price increases. It's not -- I'm not sure we will be 100%
there, but we won't have significant pain from that going forward, after the
next few months.
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
Thanks
for the additional color. And then, just last question here, it looked like
there was some repurchase activity from a share perspective in the quarter.
(multiple speakers) color on your thoughts behind that, and --
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
We
did
some. Prices dropped. But, as business got worse and worse, it's our view that,
at this point, we probably won't do additional stock buybacks for a while unless
price really just gets ridiculous, which it probably is at this point. But,
you
just don't know in this environment. But as I said, cash is king. We're going
to
do everything we can to preserve cash, and given the choice of a good
acquisition that comes along versus stock buyback, we will certainly do the
acquisition first.
David
Wells -
Avondale Partners - Analyst
Great
thanks.
Operator
Jamie
Wyland, Wyland Management.
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Once
again, I want to commend you on your ability to manage the business and then
the
flexibility you have between when things are good and when things are bad to
be
able to rightsize things. A couple of questions. You mentioned all the
competitors that have gone out. Can you talk a little bit about who they are
and
how big they were?
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
A
couple
of them were private companies. One was a $35 million company. A couple others
were divisions of bigger companies where they just closed them
down.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
Or,
in
some cases, they're not closing their entire operations. They're getting out
of
a certain geographic region or deemphasizing certain products.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
And
a lot
of them that haven't gone under are just very weak right now.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
I
think
there's probably more opportunity in the future than we've picked up so far.
We've got some nice market share.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I
really
anticipate that November, December, January, maybe even February, are going
to
be really, really tough months, and we're going to just see how much staying
power a lot of these companies have.
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Bad
for
them, good for us. You talk about the new product opportunities, but you could
give us a little bit more color on what they are, and it's just beyond what
your
current capabilities are. Are there other industries and other product lines
where you currently are not in that you may consider moving into, as you have
the capacity and financial capabilities?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I
think
Jason can give some background on new products. I'm going to ask him in a minute
to give you a little bit more. But I'll just tell you a quick anecdote. This
September, we took our Board of Directors up to Goshen, Indiana. We normally
hold our board meetings in Texas, but we brought them up to Goshen, Indiana,
so
they could see factories and stuff like that. And we went to one of our
customer's factories. And I must tell you, we were very, very pleased to see
all
of the new products that were on the RVs that we're looking at. And most of
them
were all Drew products, which made the Board feel very good. So, with that,
Jason, if you want to add maybe some color on what kind of products you're
adding.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
Some
of
the newest stuff we're working on, I would rather not talk about right now
until
we've introduced it. We've got -- we're in -- our Louisville national
tradeshow's coming up in another month and we're introducing several new
products there. But we've visited probably four different businesses in the
last
few weeks, where it's just opportunities for us to take and build those products
within our own four walls. A lot of the newer stuff that's going to generate
some of the higher revenues, I would rather not discuss right now. But, on
our
next call, we'll have -- we'll be able to give you a lot more insight as to
what
those products are and what kind of revenue potential there is, things like
that.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
We
don't
want to tell our competitors before we're ready.
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Final
Transcript
|
Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Lastly,
on the Seating Technology acquisition, obviously, all the acquisitions you
do,
you have the ability to expand their network of who they do business with.
Have
you been enable to do that with Seating Technology?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
The
flat
answer is yes. You know, we said when we bought it, before we bought it, that
we
expected sales to come down, probably not as much as they've come down. But
it's
really given us the opportunity to do a lot of prototyping for customers, a
lot
of rework that we wanted to do there, some synergies that we're looking at,
savings there, too.
There's
good and bad news with the lower volume and I guess, in this case, the bad
news
is that we don't have the sales we thought we were going to have. And the good
news is it is allowing us to do lot of things, and Jason and his team have
jumped right in there, and he has picked up quite a bit of business so far.
It's
starting to produce probably in the next couple of months, but that's going
to
be as good an acquisition as we thought it was going to be, particularly once
the industries recover. I don't know if you want to add to that,
Jason.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
On
the
Seating side, the number of brands that we're selling to by the time we get
to
our first 12 months with Seating Tech will have -- the number of brands we
service will have doubled by then. We're already pretty close. So, just to
give
you an idea of how much the relationship factors have helped, bringing some
of
the Seating Tech products into existing Lippert relationships that Seating
Tech
didn't have. We're doing the same thing with Kinro right now. And any of the
new
products we develop, we're doing -- we're running down the same
way.
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Lastly,
as far as your receivables go, I don't know if you mentioned this before, but
how are you managing them? What kind of terms are you now giving to some of
the
people, and obviously (multiple speakers) customers.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
We
haven't changed terms. We're being tight on credit. We've had a lot of
long-term, good customers who we're going to continue to work with. But we're
working very closely with them. We have taken some bad debts already. It has
not
been a material number. And it would not surprise me if we take more bad debts
in the next six months. But that's part of doing business, and that's part
of
working with your customers. We've always felt that a good customer deserves
some special consideration from you.
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Nice
job,
thank you.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
I
should
mention also, related to that, with business being down as much as it's down,
our exposure to most of these customers is way down.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
And
the
weaker customers, of course, they have -- receivables lower sales so lower
receivable. They're [for lack of some more].
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Jamie
Wyland -
Wyland Management - Analyst
Very
good. Thanks.
Operator
(Operator
Instructions). Peter [Ezell], [Matter] Capital.
Peter
Ezell -
Matter Capital - Analyst
Good
morning. Perhaps you could just -- I know this sounds like it's a good
opportunity for acquisitions, but can you help me out with, in terms of what's
your comfort level on the balance sheet in terms of how much debt you would
be
willing to put on, given this type of environment?
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Well,
if
you had asked us a year ago, I would have said 2 to 2.25 times EBITDA was the
maximum tolerance. I don't know if I have that kind of tolerance in today's
marketplace, where you just don't know how long this is going to last. Probably
the only thing I am certain of is that it will recover. We have been through
many cycles in the past. Many of the younger analysts and stuff haven't seen
anything like this, but we have seen it before. And even when things are just
as
bleak as you can see them, and everybody says the world is coming to an end,
it's not coming to an end. It will turn around, whether it turns around in
early
'09 or late '09 or early '10, it will turn around. So we are optimistic that
it's going to turn.
And,
accordingly, we would leverage the balance sheet for a good deal at an
exceptional multiple. But I don't think we would go to 2 or 2.25 times EBITDA
that we would've gone last year.
Jason
Lippert -
Lippert Components Inc. - Chairman, President, CEO
And
again, I would add, from an acquisition standpoint, we're -- there is enough
troubled businesses out there right now, where there's a lot of good deals
on
equipment end customer lists where you're paying almost less than asset value
just to get into some new products. I think those are, those kinds of deals
are
a lot more likely to happen over the next several months, as more and more
troubled businesses surface for us to get in a new product.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
So
you
may not hear of an acquisition because we simply may buy some equipment, but
we
suddenly may be in a product line.
Peter
Ezell -
Matter Capital - Analyst
Yes,
it
would seem that buying these distressed assets would be the highest return
today
for you guys.
Fred
Zinn -
Drew Industries Inc. - President
Definitely
the most effective.
Peter
Ezell -
Matter Capital - Analyst
You're
doing a great job, and keep up the good work under these difficult periods.
Thanks.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
As
I say,
we've never seen anything like this.
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Final
Transcript
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
|
Operator
We
have
no further questions at this time.
Leigh
Abrams -
Drew Industries Inc. - CEO
Once
again, I thank everybody for tuning in. I'd like to wish everybody a happy
holiday season and a happy new year. And hopefully, when we talk to you for
the
year-end, it will be a little bit more joyous than today. With that, thanks
again.
Operator
Thank
you
for your participation in today's conference. This concludes our presentation.
You may now disconnect. Good day.
Editor
FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS
This
document may contain certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning
of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to financial
condition, results of operations, business strategies, operating efficiencies
or
synergies, competitive position, growth opportunities for existing products,
plans and objectives of management, markets for the Company's common stock
and
other matters. Statements in this document that are not historical facts are
"forward-looking statements" for the purpose of the safe harbor provided by
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Section 27A of the
Securities Act of 1933.
Forward-looking
statements, including, without limitation, those relating to our future business
prospects, revenues, expenses and income, whenever they occur in this document,
are necessarily estimates reflecting the best judgment of our senior management
at the time such statements were made, and involve a number of risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those
suggested by forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to
update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur
after the date the forward-looking statements are made. You should consider
forward-looking statements, therefore, in light of various important factors
as
identified in this document and in our Form 10-K for the year ended December
31,
2007, and in our subsequent Form 10-Qs filed with the SEC.
There
are
a number of factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control, which
could
cause actual results and events to differ materially from those described in
the
forward-looking statements. These factors include pricing pressures due to
domestic and foreign competition, costs and availability of raw materials
(particularly steel and related components, vinyl, aluminum, glass and ABS
resin), availability of credit for financing the retail and wholesale purchase
of manufactured homes and recreational vehicles, availability and costs of
labor, inventory levels of retailers and manufacturers, levels of repossessed
manufactured homes, the disposition into the market by FEMA, by sale or
otherwise, of RVs or manufactured homes purchased by FEMA in connection with
natural disasters, changes in zoning regulations for manufactured homes, a
sales
decline in either the RV or the manufactured housing industries, the financial
condition of our customers, retention of significant customers, interest rates,
oil and gasoline prices, the outcome of litigation, and adverse weather
conditions impacting retail sales. In addition, national and regional economic
conditions and consumer confidence may affect the retail sale of recreational
vehicles and manufactured homes.
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Final
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Oct.
31. 2008 / 11:00AM ET, DW - Q3 2008 Drew Industries Incorporated
Earnings
Conference Call
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