Exhibit 99.3

 

 

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[LOGO]

 

 

Carriage Services, Inc.

 

(NYSE: CSV)

 

December 2003 Investor Presentation

 

Copyright 2003 © Carriage Services, Inc. All rights reserved.

 

 

Forward-looking statements contained herein are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in the last slide in this presentation.

 

1



 

Company Overview

 

                  Carriage Services is a leading provider of death care services in the United States.

 

                  Focus on attractive suburban and rural markets

 

                  Primary competitors are local independents

 

[LOGO]

 

2



 

Locations

 

Currently own and operate 139 Funeral
Homes and 30 Cemeteries in 29 States

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

3



 

Company Overview

 

                  Carriage Services is a leading provider of death care services in the United States.

 

                  Focus on attractive suburban and rural markets

 

                  Primary competitors are local independents

 

                  Capital structure and cash flow much improved

 

                  Recently completed a successful turnaround strategy

 

                  Significantly improved EBITDA and free cash flow

 

                  Reduced debt and contingent acquisition obligations from $205M in 2000 to estimated $135M by 2003 year end

 

4



 

Total Debt & Contingent
Acquisition Obligations

 

Total Debt & Contingent Acquisition Obligations ($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

5



 

Improved Capital Structure

 

($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

6



 

Estimated Debt Maturities

 

($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

 

7



 

Mission Statement

 

“We are committed to being the most professional, ethical and highest quality funeral and cemetery service organization in our industry.”

 

8



 

Guiding Principles

 

                  Honesty, Integrity and Quality in all that we do

                  Hard work, pride of accomplishment and shared success through employee ownership

                  Belief in the power of people though individual initiative and teamwork

                  Outstanding service and profitability go hand-in-hand

                  Growth of the Company is driven by decentralization and partnership

 

9



 

Sales Mix

 

                  Sales from the Funeral Home segment comprise the vast majority of Carriage’s revenue

 

[CHART]

 

Carriage Services: Nine Months Ending 9/30/03

 

10



 

Funeral Homes

 

                  Remain some of the most profitable Funeral Homes in the industry

 

                  Carriage’s Funeral Homes have experienced challenges from declining death rate and losses of market share in certain markets

 

                  Highly focused on operations, people, technology improvements and growing market share

 

11



 

Most Profitable Funeral Homes

 

Funeral Home Revenue and Gross Profit ($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

12



 

Funeral Homes

 

                  Offer a complete suite of products and services to meet families’ funeral needs.

 

Funeral Home Service Offerings and Pricing Points

 

[CHART]

 

13



 

Pre-Need Funeral Programs

 

                  In addition to sales at the time of need, Carriage offers customers the option of purchasing funeral products and services in advance

 

                  Focus of pre-need sales strategy is local market

 

[CHART]

 

3Q03 Funeral Revenue Breakdown Pre-Need versus At-Need

 

14



 

 

                  Carriage has shifted the funding of its pre-need sales to insurance policies

                  Commission earned on sale

                  Returns guaranteed

 

[CHART]

 

Pre-Need Sales Allocations -1999

 

[CHART]

 

Pre-Need Sales Allocations – 9 Mths. 2003

 

15



 

Cemeteries

 

                  Offers products and services including interment services, the rights to interment cemetery sites (including grave sites, mausoleum crypts and niches) and related cemetery merchandise such as memorials and vaults

                  Revenues primarily driven by pre-need product sales

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

16



 

                  Cemetery gross margins have improved since management shifted focus to its family service model

 

Cemetery Revenue and Gross Profit ($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

17



 

[LOGO]

 

Industry Overview

 

18



 

Highly Fragmented Ownership

 

                  There are approximately 22,000 funeral homes and 10,000 cemeteries in the United States

 

                  Majority of operators consists of small, family-owned businesses that control one or several funeral homes or cemeteries in a single community

 

[CHART]

 

2003E U.S. Death Care Market

 

19



 

Long Term Value Creation

 

                  Death care businesses traditionally transfer to successive family generations

 

                  Local heritage and tradition

                  Heritage and tradition afford a local franchise

                  Provide the opportunity for growing market share

 

20



 

Death Rate Trends

 

                  Number of deaths in the United States had increased at a compounded rate of approximately 1% for years 1950 to 2000

                  2001 was down 2.4%, and 1.6% in 2002

 

CDC Death Rate Trends - Adjusted for Non-Reporting Cities

 

 

 

1Q

 

2Q

 

3Q

 

4Q

 

Full year

 

2000 % Change

 

-2.1

%

1.2

%

10.7

%

6.9

%

3.8

%

2001 % Change

 

-1.6

%

2.2

%

-6.1

%

-4.0

%

-2.4

%

2002 % Change

 

-1.5

%

0.0

%

-2.9

%

-2.1

%

-1.6

%

2003 % Change

 

-2.1

%

-2.4

%

1.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

CDC death rates are not necessarily indicative of death rates experienced in CSV’s markets!

 

                  Recent trends have caused some volatility in financial results

                  Carriage believes longer term deaths and death rates will increase as baby boom generation ages

 

21



 

Competition - Trends

 

                  Focus on reduced spending and deleveraging are common themes among industry participants over the last three years

 

 

Debt Levels (Indexed to 100)

 

[CHART]

 

Industry Capex (Indexed to 100)

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 


* 9 Mths. Ended July 31

 

22



 

                  Cremations have increased as a percentage of total services

 

                  Urban areas generally have driven the move to cremations

 

                  Carriage maintains the highest percentage of burials among its peers

 

Industry Cremation vs. Burial Rates (% Total Services)

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

23



 

Sizing the Competition

 

                  All competitors have been adversely affected by the slower than expected death rate trend.

 

                  Carriage’s lean operating structure and focus on best practices have helped weather the storm

 

                  Carriage had the highest gross margin (25.7%) among its peers for the first three quarters of 2003*

 

[CHART]

 


* For Stewart, three quarters ending July 31

 

24



 

[LOGO]

 

Financial Overview

 

25



 

Historical Financial Performance

 

Historical Financial Performance
(In Thousands $, Except Per Share Data

 

 

 

2000

 

2001

 

2002

 

9 Mths
2002

 

9 Mths
2003

 

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Funeral

 

127,261

 

124,284

 

119,299

 

89,060

 

85,939

 

Cemetery

 

35,345

 

38,209

 

34,877

 

25,834

 

26,335

 

Total Revenues

 

162,606

 

162,493

 

154,176

 

114,894

 

112,274

 

% Change

 

5.0

%

-0.1

%

-5.1

%

-6.3

%

-2.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Same Store Revenue Growth:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Funeral

 

NA

 

2.2

%

0.5

%

-0.3

%

-2.3

%

Cemetery

 

NA

 

10.9

%

-7.4

%

-7.0

%

1.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin %:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Funeral

 

21.1

%

25.3

%

28.8

%

29.4

%

25.3

%

Cemetery

 

15.0

%

23.1

%

25.0

%

23.9

%

27.0

%

Total Gross Margin %

 

19.8

%

24.8

%

27.9

%

28.1

%

25.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA*

 

42,008

 

48,692

 

42,750

 

31,635

 

29,460

 

% of Revenues

 

25.8

%

30.0

%

27.7

%

27.5

%

26.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Expense, Debt

 

14,052

 

13,579

 

13,053

 

9,450

 

8,346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income*

 

972

 

9,002

 

7,684

 

5,757

 

4,864

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted EPS**

 

$

0.06

 

$

0.51

 

$

0.44

 

$

0.33

 

$

0.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

185,204

 

156,089

 

149,094

 

155,532

 

139,742

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash from Operations

 

16,926

 

27,749

 

18,945

 

14,311

 

10,257

 

CapEx

 

10,547

 

5,046

 

6,034

 

4,886

 

5,081

 

Free Cash Flow

 

6,379

 

22,703

 

12,911

 

9,425

 

5,176

 

 


*            See the Investor Relations page of the Company’s web site, www.carriageservices.com, for disclosure of non-GAAP performance measures.

 

**     Excluding special charges or benefits and before cumulative effect of change in accounting principle

 

26



 

Projected Revenue & EBITDA

 

Projected Revenue ($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

Projected EBITDA ($ in Millions)

 

[CHART]

 

27



 

Projection Assumptions

 

                  Based on nominal organic growth expectations:

 

                  Adjusted for divestitures

 

                  No acquisitions

 

                  No growth in same store funeral service volumes between 2003 and 2007

 

                  Modest increases in average revenue per funeral

 

                  Achieve stable and moderate revenue growth from existing portfolio of businesses, through a combination of growth in revenue per experience and market share

 

28



 

                  Management of fixed costs and improvement of field based operating margins, EBITDA is projected to increase from $40.0 to $44.6 million by 2007.

 

                  Approximately 80% of Capex is “maintenance”

 

                  The balance relates to development of new cemetery facilities or properties.

 

29



 

Long-Term Base Case Scenario

 

Long-Term Base Case Scenario
(Revised as of August 5, 2003)
(In Millions $, Except Per Share Data)

 

 

 

Actual
12/31/02

 

12/31/03

 

12/31/04

 

12/31/05

 

12/31/06

 

12/31/07

 

5-Yr.
CAGR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

154.2

 

151.3

 

154.9

 

158.7

 

162.5

 

166.5

 

1.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Taxes & Special Items

 

12.5

 

10.2

 

11.8

 

13.1

 

14.6

 

16.2

 

5.3

%

Interest

 

19.8

 

18.2

 

16.6

 

16.3

 

15.9

 

15.3

 

-5.0

%

Depreciation & Amortization

 

10.5

 

11.6

 

12.0

 

12.4

 

12.7

 

13.1

 

4.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA (Excluding Special Items)

 

42.8

 

40.0

 

40.4

 

41.8

 

43.2

 

44.6

 

0.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS, Diluted

 

0.44

(1)

0.38

(2)

0.41

 

0.45

 

0.50

 

0.55

 

4.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted Shares Outstanding

 

17.4

 

17.9

 

17.9

 

18.1

 

18.2

 

18.2

 

0.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Flow from Operations Before TIDES Deferral

 

18.9

 

12.8

 

15.4

 

17.0

 

18.9

 

20.3

 

1.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Flow from Deferral of TIDES

 

0.0

 

3.5

 

6.8

 

7.3

 

7.8

 

8.5

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Flow from Operations & TIDES Deferral

 

18.9

 

16.3

 

22.2

 

24.3

 

26.7

 

28.8

 

8.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less Capital Expenditures

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

6.5

 

6.0

 

5.5

 

5.5

 

-1.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free Cash Flow

 

12.9

 

10.3

 

15.7

 

18.3

 

21.2

 

23.3

 

12.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus/Minus Net Cash Taxes

 

(1.6

)

0.2

 

4.0

 

4.7

 

5.5

 

6.4

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax Free Cash Flow

 

11.3

 

10.5

 

19.7

 

23.0

 

26.7

 

29.7

 

21.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Divestitures & Other

 

(4.5

)

7.5

 

3.8

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cumulative Deferral of TIDES

 

0.0

 

3.5

 

10.8

 

18.6

 

27.0

 

36.0

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

149.1

 

134.8

 

111.9

 

93.4

 

72.0

 

48.5

 

-20.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt / EBITDA

 

3.5

 

3.4

 

2.8

 

2.2

 

1.7

 

1.1

 

-20.8

%

 


(1) Excludes special items equal to $0.72 per share.

(2) Excludes the effect of $0.02 benefit recorded in 2003 as special charges and other items.

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

30



 

Base Case Enterprise Valuation #1

 

Long-Term Base Case Scenario

(In Millions $, Except Multiples & Per Share Data)

 

SCENARIO #1: 1 Point Multiple Decrease

 

 

 

9/30/2003

 

12/31/03

 

12/31/04

 

12/31/05

 

12/31/06

 

12/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Enterprise Value (EV):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

139.7

 

134.8

 

111.9

 

93.4

 

72.0

 

48.5

 

Preferred Securities

 

90.3

 

93.8

 

101.1

 

108.9

 

117.3

 

126.3

 

Implied Mkt. Value Equity

 

58.7

 

48.5

 

58.8

 

70.6

 

84.1

 

98.5

 

Total

 

288.7

 

277.1

 

271.8

 

272.9

 

273.4

 

273.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA*

 

40.5

 

40.0

 

40.4

 

41.8

 

43.2

 

44.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted Shares Out.

 

17.8

 

17.9

 

17.9

 

18.1

 

18.2

 

18.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SCENARIO #1: 1 Point Multiple Decrease

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EV/EBITDA Multiple

 

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.3

6.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Stock Price

 

$

3.29

 

$

2.71

 

$

3.29

 

$

3.91

 

$

4.63

 

$

5.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual % Increase

 

 

 

-18

%

21

%

19

%

18

%

17

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 - Year Compound IRR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 


* Trailing four quarter EBITDA excluding special items as of 9/30/03.

 

31



 

Base Case Enterprise Valuation #2

 

Long-Term Base Case Scenario

(In Millions $, Except Multiples & Per Share Data)

 

SCENARIO #2: Flat Multiple

 

 

 

9/30/2003

 

12/31/03

 

12/31/04

 

12/31/05

 

12/31/06

 

12/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Enterprise Value (EV):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

139.7

 

134.8

 

111.9

 

93.4

 

72.0

 

48.5

 

Preferred Securities

 

90.3

 

93.8

 

101.1

 

108.9

 

117.3

 

126.3

 

Implied Mkt. Value Equity

 

58.7

 

56.5

 

75.0

 

95.7

 

118.7

 

143.1

 

Total

 

288.7

 

285.1

 

288.0

 

298.0

 

308.0

 

317.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA*

 

40.5

 

40.0

 

40.4

 

41.8

 

43.2

 

44.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted Shares Out.

 

17.8

 

17.9

 

17.9

 

18.1

 

18.2

 

18.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SCENARIO #2: Flat Multiple

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EV/EBITDA Multiple

 

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Stock Price

 

$

3.29

 

$

3.16

 

$

4.19

 

$

5.30

 

$

6.54

 

$

7.86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual % Increase

 

 

 

-4

%

33

%

27

%

23

%

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 - Year Compound IRR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

%

 

 

 

 

 


* Trailing four quarter EBITDA excluding special items as of 9/30/03.

 

32



 

Base Case Enterprise Valuation #3

 

Long-Term Base Case Scenario

(In Millions $, Except Multiples & Per Share Data)

 

SCENARIO #3: 1 Point Multiple Increase

 

 

 

9/30/2003

 

12/31/03

 

12/31/04

 

12/31/05

 

12/31/06

 

12/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Enterprise Value (EV):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

139.7

 

134.8

 

111.9

 

93.4

 

72.0

 

48.5

 

Preferred Securities

 

90.3

 

93.8

 

101.1

 

108.9

 

117.3

 

126.3

 

Implied Mkt. Value Equity

 

58.7

 

64.5

 

91.2

 

120.8

 

153.2

 

187.7

 

Total

 

288.7

 

293.1

 

304.2

 

323.1

 

342.5

 

362.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA*

 

40.5

 

40.0

 

40.4

 

41.8

 

43.2

 

44.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted Shares Out.

 

17.8

 

17.9

 

17.9

 

18.1

 

18.2

 

18.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SCENARIO #3: 1 Point Multiple Increase

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EV/EBITDA Multiple

 

7.1

7.3

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Stock Price

 

$

3.29

 

$

3.61

 

$

5.09

 

$

6.69

 

$

8.44

 

$

10.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual % Increase

 

 

 

10

%

41

%

31

%

26

%

22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 - Year Compound IRR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26

%

 

 

 

 

 


* Trailing four quarter EBITDA excluding special items as of 9/30/03.

 

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Investment Considerations

 

                  Carriage Services is a leading provider of death care services in the United States.

                  Focus on attractive suburban and rural markets

                  Most profitable funeral homes in the industry

                  Capital structure and cash flow much improved

                  Recently completed a successful turnaround strategy

                  Significantly improved EBITDA and free cash flow

                  Reduced debt and contingent acquisition obligations from $205M in 2000 to estimated $135M by 2003 year end

                  Compelling valuation scenarios

 

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Forward-Looking Information

 

In addition to historical information, this presentation contains forward-looking statements made by the management of Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company” or “Carriage”).  Such statements are typically identified by terms expressing future expectations or goals.  These forward-looking statements, although made in good faith, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in these forward-looking statements.  Factors that might cause such a difference include Carriage’s inability to sell businesses and properties for the estimated proceeds, to achieve the free cash flow from operations in the base case scenario, or to achieve internal growth from our businesses; adverse changes in economic and financial market conditions, increasing interest rates, and restricted credit availability; lower death rates; changing consumer preferences; competition in our markets from new entrants and existing business competitors; Carriage’s inability to maintain operating ratios within the limits set forth within our financing arrangements; and changes in government regulation of the death care industry.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect management’s opinions only as of the date hereof.  We undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision of these forward-looking statements.  Readers should carefully review the Cautionary Statements described in this and other documents we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Annual Reports on Form 10-K and Current Reports on Form 8-K filed by Carriage in the future.

 

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[LOGO]

 

Thank You

 

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