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Sponsor Earn-Out Liabilities
 12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2025
Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities Disclosure [Abstract]  
Sponsor Earn-Out Liabilities

Note 12.  Sponsor Earn-Out Liabilities

The Sponsor Earn-Out shares in Tranche 2 through Tranche 5 have been measured at their estimated fair value using a Monte Carlo simulation valuation model. Inherent in the valuation model are assumptions related to expected stock price volatility, risk-free interest rate, expected life, and dividend yield. The key inputs used in the Monte Carlo simulation model for the Sponsor Earn-Out liabilities at their measurement dates were as follows:

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

December 31, 2025

​

​

December 31, 2024

Expected term (in years)

​

5.7

​

​

5.9

Risk free rate

​

3.77%

​

​

4.38%

Expected volatility

​

100.0%

​

​

95.0%

Expected dividends

​

0%

​

​

0%

Stock price

$

1.80

​

$

2.19

 

 

The stock price is based on the closing price of the Company’s Class A common stock as of the valuation date and simulated through the end of the earn-out period following Geometric Brownian Motion. Expected volatility is based on the weighted average historical volatilities of the Company’s Class A common stock and public warrants as well as the common stock of select peer companies’ that matches the expected term of the awards (range of the weighted average of volatility is 96.2% - 101.2% and 87.3% - 122.5% for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively). The expected term is derived from the probability weighted model, considering the number of inputs, including the probability of a change in control. The risk-free interest rate is based on the yield curve for zero-coupon U.S. Treasury notes with maturities corresponding to the expected term of the awards. The dividend rate is based on the historical rate, which the Company anticipates remaining at zero.

The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending balances for the Sponsor Earn-Out liabilities:

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​

​

​

​

(in thousands)

Balance as of December 31, 2023

$

4,166

Change in fair value

​

5,306

Balance as of December 31, 2024

​

9,472

Change in fair value

  ​

(1,677)

Balance as of December 31, 2025

$

7,795