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Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves | 9 Months Ended
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Sep. 30, 2013
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Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves | MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Unaudited) Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Process U.S. Public Finance U.S. public finance insur ed transactions consist of municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of U.S. political subdivisions, as well as utility districts, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities that finance projects that serve a substantial public purpose. The Company estimates future losses by utilizing probability-weighted scenarios that are customized to each insured transaction. Future loss estimates consider debt service due for each insured transaction, which includes par outstanding and interest due. The Company has established loss and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves and an insurance loss recoverable of $94 million and $17 million, respectively, as of September 30, 2013. During the nine months ended September 30, 2013, losses and LAE was $105 million, primarily related to certain general obligation bonds and the loss related to the difference in the value of the salvage receivable previously recorded and the fair market value of the marketable securities received in connection with the restructuring of a gaming revenue transaction. Certain local governments remain under extreme financial and budgetary stress and several have filed for protection under the United States Bankruptcy Code, or have entered into state statutory proceedings established to assist municipalities in managing through periods of severe fiscal stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of the Company's insured transactions. The Company monitor s and analyze s these situations closely, however, the overall extent and duration of such events are uncertain. As of September 30, 2013, the Company had $131.5 billion of gross par outstanding on general obligations, of which $251 million was reflected on the Company's “Classified List.” Capital appreciation bonds are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy. Structured Finance and International As of September 30, 2013, the majority of the structured finance and international insurance segment's case basis reserves and insurance loss recoveries recorded in accordance with GAAP were related to insured second-lien and first-lien RMBS transactions. These reserves and recoveries do not include estimates for policies insuring credit derivatives and do not include losses and recoveries on financial guarantee VIEs that are eliminated in consolidation. Policies insuring credit derivative contracts are accounted for as derivatives and carried at fair value under GAAP. The fair values of insured derivative contracts are influenced by a variety of market and transaction-specific factors that may be unrelated to potential future claim payments under the Company's insurance policies. In the absence of credit impairments on insured derivative contracts or the early termination of such contracts at a loss, the cumulative unrealized losses recorded from fair valuing these contracts should reverse before or at the maturity of the contracts. Notwithstanding the difference in accounting under GAAP for financial guarantee policies and the Company's insured derivatives, insured derivatives have similar terms, conditions, risks, and economic profiles to financial guarantee insurance policies, and therefore, are evaluated by the Company for loss (referred to as credit impairment herein) and LAE periodically in a manner similar to the way that loss and LAE reserves are estimated for financial guarantee insurance policies. Credit impairments represent actual payments and collections plus the present value of estimated expected future claim payments, net of recoveries. MBIA Insurance Corporation's expected future claim payments for insured derivatives were discounted using a rate of 5.72%, the same rate it used to calculate its statutory loss reserves as of September 30, 2013. These credit impairments, calculated in accordance with statutory accounting principles (“U.S. STAT”), differ from the fair values recorded in the Company's consolidated financial statements. The Company considers its credit impairment estimates as critical information for investors as it provides information about loss payments the Company expects to make on insured derivative contracts. As a result, the following loss and LAE process discussion includes information about loss and LAE activity recorded in accordance with GAAP for financial guarantee insurance policies and credit impairments estimated in accordance with U.S. STAT for insured derivative contracts. Refer to “Note 6: Fair Value of Financial Instruments” included herein for additional information about the Company's insured credit derivative contracts. To date, the Company has resolved or agreed to resolve substantially all of its contract claims (referred to as “put-back” claims) related to those mortgage loans whose inclusion in insured securitizations failed to comply with representations and warranties (“ineligible loans”), with the exception of those ineligible loans securitized by Credit Suisse 2007-2 in the home equity mortgage trust (“HEMT”) securitization. Credit Suisse has challenged t he Company's assessment of the ineligibility of individual mortgage loans and the dispute is the subject of l itigation for which there is no assurance that the Company will prevail. RMBS Case Basis Reserves and Recoveries (Financial Guarantees) The Company's RMBS reserves and recoveries relate to financial guarantee insurance policies. The Company calculated RMBS case basis reserves as of September 30, 2013 for both second-lien and first-lien RMBS transactions using a process called the “Roll Rate Methodology.” The Roll Rate Methodology is a multi-step process using a database of loan level information, a proprietary internal cash flow model, and a commercially available model to estimate expected ultimate cumulative losses on insured bonds. “Roll Rate” is defined as the probability that current loans become delinquent and that loans in the delinquent pipeline are charged-off or liquidated. Generally, Roll Rates are calculated for the previous three months and averaged. The loss reserve estimates are based on a probability-weighted average of three scenarios of loan losses (base case, stress case, and an additional stress case). In calculating ultimate cumulative losses for RMBS, the Company estimates the amount of loans that are expected to be charged-off (deemed uncollectible by servicers of the transactions) or liquidated in the future. The Company assumes that charged-off loans have zero recovery values. Second-lien RMBS Reserves The Company's second-lien RMBS case basis reserves as of September 30, 2013 relate to RMBS backed by home equity lines of credit (“HELOC”) and closed-end second mortgages (“CES”). The Roll Rates for 30-59 day delinquent loans and 60-89 day delinquent loans are calculated on a transaction-specific basis. The Company assumes that the Roll Rate for 90+ day delinquent loans, excluding foreclosures and Real Estate Owned (“REO”) is 95%. The Roll Rates are applied to the amounts in the respective delinquency buckets based on delinquencies as of August 31, 2013 to estimate future losses from loans that are delinquent as of the current reporting period. Roll Rates for loans that are current as of August 31, 2013 (“Current Roll to Loss”) are also calculated on a transaction-specific basis. A proportion of loans reported current as of August 31, 2013 is assumed to become delinquent every month, at a Current Roll to Loss rate that persists at a high level for a time and subsequently starts to decline. A key assumption in the model is the period of time in which the Company projects high levels of Current Roll to Loss to persist. The Company runs multiple scenarios, each with varying periods of time, for which the high levels of Current Roll to Loss rates persist. Loss reserves are calculated by using a weighted average of these scenarios, with the majority of the probability assigned to stressful scenarios where the high levels of Current Roll to Loss rates persist for six or twenty four months before reverting to historic levels. In the base case scenario, the Company assumes that the Current Roll to Loss begins to decline immediately and continues to decline over the next six months to 25% of their levels as of August 31, 2013. For example, in the base case, as of August 31, 2013, if the amount of current loans which become 30-59 days delinquent is 10%, and recent performance suggests that 30% of those loans will be charged-off, the Current Roll to Loss for the transaction is 3%. In the base case, it is then assumed that the Current Roll to Loss will reduce linearly to 25% of its original value over the next six months (i.e., 3% will linearly reduce to 0.75% over the six months from September 2013 to February 201 4). After that six-month period, the Company further reduces the Current Roll to Loss to 0% by early to mid-2014 with the expectation that the performing seasoned loans will eventually result in loan performance reverting to low er levels of default consistent with history. In addition, in the Company's loss reserve models for transactions secured by HELOCs, the Company considers borrower draw and prepayment rates and factors that could affect the excess spread generated by current loans, which offsets losses and reduces payments. For HELOCs, the current three-month average draw rate is generally used to project future draws on the line. For HELOCs and transactions secured by fixed-rate CES, the three-month average conditional prepayment rate is generally used to start the projection for trends in voluntary principal prepayments. Due to the current volatility in mortgage prepayment rates, which influence mortgage refinancing and voluntary principal prepayment rates, the Company used historical average mortgage rates to model its loss reserves in the third quarter of 2013. P rojected cash flows are also based on an assumed constant basis spread between floating rate assets and floating rate insured debt obligations (the difference between p rime and London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) interest rates, minus any applicable fees). For all transactions, cash flow models consider allocations and other structural aspects of the transactions, including managed amortization periods, rapid amortization periods and claims against MBIA Corp.'s insurance policy consistent with such policy's terms and conditions. In developing multiple loss scenarios, stress is applied by elongating the Current Roll to Loss rate for various periods, simulating a slower improvement in the transaction performance. The estimated net claims from the procedure above are then discounted using a risk-free rate to a net present value reflecting MBIA's general obligation to pay claims over time and not on an accelerated basis. The above assumptions represent MBIA's probability-weighted estimates of how transactions will perform over time. The Company monitors portfolio performance on a monthly basis against projected performance, reviewing delinquencies, Roll Rates, and prepayment rates (including voluntary and involuntary). However, loan performance remains difficult to predict and losses may exceed expectations. In the event of a material deviation in actual performance from projected performance, the Company would increase or decrease the case basis reserves accordingly. If actual performance were to remain at the peak levels for six additional month s compared to the pro bability-weighted outcome currently used by the Company, t he addition to the case basis reserves would be approximately $85 million. Second-lien RMBS Recoveries The Company primarily records two types of recoveries related to insured second-lien RMBS exposures; recoveries related to put-back claims on ineligible mortgages and excess spread that is generated from performing loans in the insured transactions. Ineligible Mortgage Loans As of September 30, 2013, the Company recorded estimated recoveries of $1.1 billion, gross of income taxes, related to second-lien RMBS put-back claims on ineligible mortgage loans, consisting of $18 m illion included in “Insurance loss recoverable” and $1.1 billion included in “Loan repurchase commitments” presented under the heading “Assets of consolidated variable interest entities” on the Company's consolidated balance sheets. As of September 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012, the Company's estimated recoveries after income taxes calculated at the federal statutory rate of 35%, were $737 m illion and $2.3 billion, respectively, which was 23% and 73% of the consolidated total shareholders' equity of MBIA, excluding preferred stock of subsidiaries and noncontrolling interests, respectively. As of September 30, 2013, the remaining estimated recoveries relate to the Company's claims based on ineligible mortgage loans asserted against Credit Suisse and the agreed to claims and recoveries against the bankruptcy estates of RFC, GMAC and ResCap as reflected in a disclosure statement filed in August of 2013. On May 14, 2012, ResCap and its wholly-owned subsidiary companies, RFC and GMAC, each filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. MBIA asserted claims based on the inclusion of ineligible loans against RFC, GMAC and ResCap, based upon the direct contractual relationship between the Company, RFC and GMAC. As of May 23, 2013, Ally, ResCap, RFC, GMAC and the Consenting Claimants (which includes MBIA), among other parties, executed a term sheet and supplemental term sheet agreeing to, among other things, a settlement amount of $796 million to be paid to MBIA as part of a proposed plan to resolve claims against Ally and RFC, GMAC and ResCap. In August of 2013, a disclosure statement filed indicated an increased expected recovery for MBIA of approximately $828 million. The increased recovery was primarily due to the favorable disposition of assets and settlements of claims. The settlement and anticipated recoveries are consistent with the put-back recoveries recorded by the Company. The agreement will be implemented through a plan of reorganization in ResCap's Chapter 11 cases, subject to bankruptcy court approval. In June of 2013, the bankruptcy court issued a Memorandum Opinion approving the Plan. The Plan is subject to confirmation by the bankruptcy court, with confirmation hearings currently scheduled in November 2013. MBIA anticipates an initial distribution of funds to the Company and other claimants in late 2013 or early 2014. This anticipated timeline may change due to developments related to the Junior Secured Note litigation, which occurred in October of 2013, or other matters that develop in the course of events in the bankruptcy court plan confirmation process. The Company continue s to refine the indicative scenarios used to calculate put-back recoveries for ResCap based upon information received during the bankruptcy process. The Company has made additional adjustments to its recovery calculation s related to ResCap in consideration of the agreed upon recovery amount as describ ed in the executed term sheet, supplemental term sheet and plan support agreement submitted in motions filed in May of 2013. During the third quarter of 2013, MBIA made additional refinements to the probability assumptions utilized to calculate the Company's expected recoveries. The revisions were based upon the submission of documents related to the Plan. In addition, t he Company believes that it will prevail in enforcing its contractual put-back rights against Credit Suisse. Based on the Company's assessment of the strength of these claims, the Company believes it is entitled to collect the full amount of its incurred losses, and interest on amounts paid. However, u ncertainty remains with respect to the ultimate outcome of the litigation with Credit Suisse, which is contemplated in the scenario based-modeling the Company utilizes. The Credit Suisse recovery scenarios are based on the amount of incurred losses measured against certain probabilities of ultimate resolution of the dispute with Credit Suisse over the inclusion of ineligible mortgage loans in the HEMT securitization. Most of the probability weight is assigned to partial recovery scenarios. Expected cash inflows from put-back recoveries are discounted using the current risk-free discount rates associated with the underlying transaction's cash flows which ranged from 1.4% to 2.7%, depending upon the transaction's expected average life, which ranged from 5.0 years to 10.4 years. The Company consistently reviews the approach and assumptions it applies to calculate put-back recoveries. The same transactional documents that provide the Company with its put-back rights against Credit Suisse also provide that the Company is entitled to reimbursement of interest on paid claims at a prescribed interest rate. F ollowing Judge Jed Rakoff's decision on February 7, 2013 in the Assured Guaranty v. Flagstar case (Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. v. Flagstar Bank, 11-cv-02375, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan)), in which he confirmed Assured Guaranty's analogous right to recover contractual interest in addition to claims paid, the Company has refined its put-back recovery assumptions against Credit Suisse to increase the probability that it will be reimbursed for contractual interest owed on paid claims. Consistent with the Company's probability based put-back recovery calculation s, it has determined the interest owed contemplating litigation risk and repayment risk, as well as the potential value in the context of a settlement. T he Company continues to maintain that in the context of its put-back litigation, the Company is entitled to receive interest at the New York State statutory rate. However, the Company currently calculates its put-back recoveries using the contractual interest rate, which is lower than the New York State statutory rate. To date, MBIA has either settled or agreed to settle the majority of the Company's put-back claims, with only Credit Suisse remaining as an outstanding dispute. The settlement amounts have been consistent with the put-back recoveries previously included in the Company's financial statements. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties” included herein for a description of the BofA Settlement Agreement. Additional information on the status of the litigation against Credit Suisse can be found in the “Recovery Litigation” discussion within “Note 14: Commitments and Contingencies.” The Company's assessment of the remaining unsettled recover ies related to insured Credit Suisse second-lien RMBS is principally based on the following factors: the settlement of the majority of the Company's put-back claims with sellers/servicers, including those with Bank of America and Flagstar Bank in May of 2013; Assured Guaranty's favorable court ruling in its put-back litigation against Flagstar Bank, awarding it the vast majority of the claims paid on the relevant transactions plus interest, fees and expenses, as well as their subsequent settlement with Flagstar Bank, which resolved Assured Guaranty's put-back claims; and the court rulings in MBIA's put-back litigations. The Company continues to consider all relevant facts and circumstances, including the factors described above, in developing its assumptions on expected cash inflows, probability of potential recoveries (including the outco me of litigation) and recovery period. The estimated amount and likelihood of potential recoveries are expected to be revised and supplemented to the extent there are developments in the pending litigation and/or changes to the financial condition of Credit Suisse. While the Company believes it will be successful in realizing recoveries from contractual claims, the ultimate amounts recovered may be materially different from those recorded by the Company given the inherent uncertainty of the manner of resolving the claims (e.g., litigation) and the assumptions used in the required estimation process for accounting purposes which are based, in part, on judgments and other information that are not easily corroborated by historical data or other relevant benchmarks. All of the Company's policies insuring second-lien RMBS for which litigation has been initiated against sellers/servicers are in the form of financial guarantee insurance contracts. In accordance with GAAP, the Company has not recorded a gain contingency with respect to pending litigation. Excess Spread As of September 30, 2013, the Company recorded estimated recoveries of $756 million in reimbursement of past and future expected claims through excess spread in insured second-lien RMBS transactions. Of the expected reimbursement from excess spread, $669 million is included in “Insurance loss recoverable” and $87 million is included in “Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves” on the Company's consolidated balance sheets. Excess spread is generated by performing loans within insured RMBS securitizations and is the difference between interest inflows on mortgage loan collateral and interest outflows on insured beneficial interests. The amount of excess spread depends on the future delinquency and loss trends, future prime and LIBOR interest rates and borrower refinancing behavior, which results in voluntary prepayments. First-lien RMBS Reserves The Company's first-lien RMBS case basis reserves as of September 30, 2013, which primarily relate to RMBS backed by A lt-A and subprime mortgage loans, were determined using the Roll Rate Methodology. The Company assumes that the Roll Rate for loans in foreclosure, REO and bankruptcy are 90%, 90% and 75%, respectively. Roll Rates for current, 30-59 day delinquent loans, 60-89 day delinquent loans and 90+ day delinquent loans are calculated on a transaction-specific basis. The C urrent Roll to Loss rates stay at the August 31, 2013 level for one month before declining to 25% of this level over a 24-month period. The Company estimates future losses by utilizing three different probability-weighted scenarios: base; stress; and additional stress. The three scenarios differ in the roll rates to loss of 90+ day delinquent loans. In the base scenario, the Company uses deal-specific roll rates obtained from historic loan level roll rate data. In the stress scenario, the Company assumes a 90% roll rate for all 90+ day delinquent loans. In the additional stress scenario, the roll rates for each deal are an average of the deal-specific roll rate used in the base scenario and the 90% rate. The Roll Rates are applied to the amounts in each deal's respective 90+ delinquency bucket based on delinquencies as of August 31, 2013 in order to estimate future losses from loans that are delinquent as of September 30, 2013. In calculating ultimate cumulative losses for first-lien RMBS, the Company estimates the amount of loans that are expected to be liquidated through foreclosure or short sale. The time to liquidation for a defaulted loan is specific to the loan's delinquency bucket with the latest three-month average loss severities generally used to start the projection for trends in loss severities at loan liquidation. The loss severities are reduced over time to account for reduction in the amount of foreclosure inventory, anticipated future increases in home prices, principal amortization of the loan and government foreclosure moratoriums. ABS CDOs (Financial Guarantees and Insured Derivatives) MBIA's insured ABS CDOs are transactions that include a variety of collateral ranging from corporate bonds to structured finance assets (which includes but are not limited to RMBS related collateral, ABS CDOs, corporate CDOs and collateralized loan obligations). These transactions were insured as either financial guarantee insurance policies or credit derivatives with the majority currently insured in the form of financial guarantees. Since the fourth quarter of 2007, MBIA's insured par exposure within the ABS CDO portfolio has been substantially reduced through a combination of terminations and commutations. Accordingly, as of September 30, 2013, the insured par exposure of the ABS CDO financial guarantee insurance policies and credit derivatives portfolio has declined by approximately 96% of the insured amount as of December 31, 2007. The Company's ABS CDOs originally benefited from two sources of credit enhancement. First, the subordination in the underlying securities collateralizing the transaction must be fully eroded and second, the subordination below the insured tranche in the CDO transaction must be fully eroded before the insured tranche is subject to a claim. The Company's payment obligations after a default are timely interest and ultimate principal. The primary factor in estimating reserves on insured ABS CDO policies written as financial guarantee insurance policies and in estimating impairments on insured ABS CDO credit derivatives is the losses associated with the underlying collateral in the transactions. MBIA's approach to establishing reserves or impairments in this portfolio employs a methodology which is similar to other structured finance asset classes insured by MBIA. The Company u tilizes up to a total of four probability-weighted scenarios in order to estimate its reserves or impairments for ABS CDOs. As of September 30, 2013, the Company established loss and LAE reserves totaling $87 million related to ABS CDO financial guarantee insurance policies after the elimination of $196 million as a result of consolidating VIEs. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, the Company had a benefit of $47 million of losses and LAE recorded in earnings related to ABS CDO financial guarantee insurance policies after the elimination of a $39 million benefit as a result of consolidating VIEs. In the event of further deteriorating performance of the collateral referenced or held in ABS CDO transactions, the amount of losses estimated by the Company could increase substant ially. Credit Impairments Related to Structured CMBS Pools, CRE CDOs and CRE Loan Pools (Financial Guarantees and Insured Derivatives) Most of the structured CMBS pools, CRE CDOs and CRE loan pools insured by MBIA are accounted for as insured credit derivatives and are carried at fair value in the Company's consolidated financial statements. Since the Company's insured credit derivatives have similar terms, conditions, risks, and economic profiles to its financial guarantee insurance policies, the Company evaluates them for impairment in the same way that it estimates loss and LAE for its financial guarantee policies. The following discussion provides information about the Company's process for estimating credit impairments on these contracts using its statutory loss reserve methodology, determined as the present value of the probability-weighted potential future losses, net of estimated recoveries, across multiple scenarios, plus actual payments and collections. The Company has developed multiple scenarios to consider the range of potential outcomes in the CRE market and their impact on MBIA. The approaches require substantial judgments about the future performance of the underlying loans, and include the following: The first approach considers the range of commutation agreements achieved over the past several years with multiple counterparties and results in an estimated price to commute the remaining policies. I t is customized by counterparty and is dependent up on the level of dialogue with the counterparty and the credit quality and payment profile of the underlying exposure. The second approach considers current delinquency rates and uses current and projected net operating income (“NOI”) and capitalization rates (“Cap Rates”) to project losses under two scenarios. These scenarios assume that property performance remain s flat for the near term and then improve s gradually. Additionally, certain large loans are reviewed individually so that performance and loss severity c an be more accurately determine d. Other loans are reviewed for factors that may mitigate potential performance. This approach utilizes two scenarios which vary in the levels of expected future defaults. The last approach is based on a proprietary model developed by reviewing performance data on over 80,000 securitized CRE loans originated between 1992 and 2011. The time period covered during the performance review includes the years 2006 through 2011 because they encompass a period of extreme stress in the economy and the CRE markets. The Company found property type and the debt service coverage ratio to be the most significant determinants of a loan's average annual default probability, and developed a model based on these factors. The Company then ran Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the timing of defaults and losses at the property level by applying property type-based Cap Rates to estimate the property's NOI. The loss severities projected by these scenarios vary widely, from moderate to substantial losses. Actual losses will be a function of the proportion of loans in the pools that are foreclosed and liquidated and the loss severities associated with those liquidations. If the deductibles in the Company's insured transactions and underlying referenced CMBS transactions are fully eroded, additional property level losses upon foreclosures and liquidations could result in substantial losses for MBIA. U ltimate loss rates remain uncertain because many loans are still delinquent and have not yet been resolved, others have been modified and others do not mature for another three to four years at which time they will face the need to refinance. The Company assigns a wide range of probabilities to these scenarios and incorporates view s that liquidations will continue to be mitigated by loan extensions and modifications, and that property values and NOIs have bottomed for many sectors and markets in the U.S. The weightings are customized for each counterparty. If macroeconomic stress were to increase or the U.S. enters into a recession, higher delinquencies, liquidations and/or higher severities of loss upon liquidation may result and the Company may incur substantial additional losses. The foreclosure and REO pipelines are still relatively robust, with several restructurings and liquidations yet to occur, so the range of possible outcomes is wider than those for the Company's exposures to ABS CDOs and second-lien RMBS. Prior to June 30, 2013, the Company incorporated an additional approach based on recent Roll Rates experienced within each of the commercial mortgage-backed index series. This actuarial approach was eliminated as a result of more emphasis being placed on loan-specific scenarios. In the CRE CDO portfolio, transaction-specific structures require certain reporting and management protocols and often require the Company to incorporate these structural distinctions into its models. None of the CRE CDOs insured by the Company allow for reinvesting at this time, and many of the senior bonds have begun to amortize. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, the Company had a benefit of $28 million of losses and LAE recorded in earnings related to CRE CDO financial guarantee insurance policies. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, additional credit impairments and LAE for insured derivatives on structured CMBS pools, CRE CDOs and CRE loan pools were estimated to be $487 million as a result of additional delinquencies and loan level liquidations, as well as continued refinements of MBIA's assessment of various commutation possibilities. T he cumulative credit impairments and LAE on structured CMBS pools, CRE CDOs and CRE loan pools were estimated to be $4.1 billion through September 30, 2013. Though t he pace of increases in the delinquency rate has slowed, many loans are being modified and liquidations continue to take place. Loan level losses have ranged from 1% to 2%, to near complete losses, and in a few cases severities exceeded 100%. These liquidations have led to bond level losses which have reduced the level of enhancement to the individual CMBS bonds referenced by the insured structured CMBS pools and i n certain cases have resulted in deductible erosion. Bond level enhancement and pool level deductibles are structural features intended to mitigate losses to the Company, h owever, some of the transactions reference similar rated subordinate tranches of CMBS bonds. When there are broad-based declines in property performance, this leverage can result in rapid deterioration in pool performance. Beginning in the second quarter of 2013, the Company paid claims on a CMBS pool transaction that experienced deterioration such that all remaining deductible was eliminated. Loss and LAE Activity Financial Guarantee Insurance Losses (Non-Derivative) The Company's financial guarantee insurance losses and LAE for the nine months ended September 30, 2013 are presented in the following table:
| Losses and LAE |  | Nine Months Ended September 30, 2013 |
|  |  |  | Second-lien |  | First-lien |  |  |  |  |
| In millions |  | RMBS |  | RMBS |  | Other(1) |  | Total |
| Losses and LAE related to actual and expected payments |  | $ | 85 |  | $ | 12 |  | $ | 108 |  | $ | 205 |
| Recoveries of actual and expected payments |  |  | (177) |  |  | (11) |  |  | 76 |  |  | (112) |
| Gross losses incurred |  |  | (92) |  |  | 1 |  |  | 184 |  |  | 93 |
| Reinsurance |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | (1) |  |  | (1) |
| Losses and LAE |  | $ | (92) |  | $ | 1 |  | $ | 183 |  | $ | 92 |
| __________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| (1) - Includes ABS CDOs, CMBS, U.S. public finance and other issues.
The losses and LAE related to actual and expected payments included in the preceding table primarily related to $108 million in other exposures, including $86 million of losses related to U.S. public finance transactions primarily related to certain general obligation issues. The second-lien RMBS losses and LAE related to actual and expected payments comprise net increases of previously established reserves. The recoveries of actual and expected payments were primarily related to se c ond-l i en R M BS recoveries of $177 million, includ ing $316 m i ll i o n i n re c o ve r i e s primarily r e sul t in g f r o m i nel i g ib l e m o rt gag e lo a ns i n c l ude d i n i n su r e d e x pos u r e s t ha t a re su b je c t t o c ont ra c t ual ob l ig a t ion s b y se l le r s/se r v ic e rs t o r epu r c has e o r re p lac e su c h m ortga g es, partially o ffs e t by a $139 mi l lion redu c tion in e xc e ss spre a d. Partially offsetting increases in second-lien RMBS recoveries of actual and expected payments were decreases of $76 million related to other issues primarily resulting from a reversal of recoveries related to high yield corporate CDOs. T h e f ol l owin g t abl e p r o v ide s in f o rm a t i o n a bou t t h e f i nan c ia l gu a r a n t e e s an d r el a t e d c la i m li a bili t y i n c lude d i n ea ch of M B I A's s u rv e i llan ce c a t ego r ie s a s o f September 30, 2013:
|  |  |  |  | Surveillance Categories
|  |  |  |  | Caution |  | Caution |  | Caution |  |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  | List |  | List |  | List |  | Classified |  |  |
$ in millions |  | Low |  | Medium |  | High |  | List |  | Total
Number of policies |  |  | 89 |  |  | 20 |  |  | 6 |  |  | 192 |  |  | 307
Number of issues(1) |  |  | 31 |  |  | 15 |  |  | 5 |  |  | 135 |  |  | 186
Remaining weighted average contract |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| period (in years) |  |  | 10.8 |  |  | 5.3 |  |  | 9.6 |  |  | 9.6 |  |  | 9.8
Gross insured contractual payments |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| outstanding:(2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Principal |  | $ | 5,686 |  | $ | 1,099 |  | $ | 65 |  | $ | 8,332 |  | $ | 15,182
|  | Interest |  |  | 3,998 |  |  | 279 |  |  | 32 |  |  | 4,819 |  |  | 9,128
|  |  | Total |  | $ | 9,684 |  | $ | 1,378 |  | $ | 97 |  | $ | 13,151 |  | $ | 24,310
Gross claim liability |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 1,504 |  | $ | 1,504
Less: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Gross potential recoveries |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 1,264 |  |  | 1,264
| Discount, net |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 272 |  |  | 272
Net claim liability (recoverable) |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | (32) |  | $ | (32)
Unearned premium revenue |  | $ | 129 |  | $ | 20 |  | $ | 1 |  | $ | 101 |  | $ | 251
__________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(1) - An “issue” represents the aggregate of financial guarantee policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
(2) - Represents contractual principal and interest payments due by the issuer of the obligations insured by MBIA.
T h e f ol l owin g t abl e p r o v ide s in f o rm a t i o n a bou t t h e f i nan c ia l gu a r a n t e e s an d r el a t e d c la i m li a bili t y i n c lude d i n ea ch of M B I A's s u rv e i llan ce c a t ego r ie s a s o f December 31, 2012:
|  |  |  |  | Surveillance Categories
|  |  |  |  | Caution |  | Caution |  | Caution |  |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  | List |  | List |  | List |  | Classified |  |  |
$ in millions |  | Low |  | Medium |  | High |  | List |  | Total
Number of policies |  |  | 54 |  |  | 25 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 206 |  |  | 295
Number of issues(1) |  |  | 29 |  |  | 15 |  |  | 10 |  |  | 136 |  |  | 190
Remaining weighted average contract |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| period (in years) |  |  | 8.1 |  |  | 4.0 |  |  | 7.6 |  |  | 9.5 |  |  | 8.7
Gross insured contractual payments |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| outstanding:(2) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Principal |  | $ | 4,250 |  | $ | 1,176 |  | $ | 373 |  | $ | 9,458 |  | $ | 15,257
|  | Interest |  |  | 2,721 |  |  | 256 |  |  | 120 |  |  | 5,264 |  |  | 8,361
|  |  | Total |  | $ | 6,971 |  | $ | 1,432 |  | $ | 493 |  | $ | 14,722 |  | $ | 23,618
Gross claim liability |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 1,589 |  | $ | 1,589
Less: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Gross potential recoveries |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 4,109 |  |  | 4,109
| Discount, net |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 229 |  |  | 229
Net claim liability (recoverable) |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | 0 |  | $ | (2,749) |  | $ | (2,749)
Unearned premium revenue |  | $ | 142 |  | $ | 11 |  | $ | 3 |  | $ | 122 |  | $ | 278
__________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(1) - An “issue” represents the aggregate of financial guarantee policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
(2) - Represents contractual principal and interest payments due by the issuer of the obligations insured by MBIA.
The gross claim liability as of September 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012 in the preceding tables represents the Company's estimate of undiscounted probability-weighted future claim payments, which principally relate to insured first and second-lien RMBS transactions and U.S. public finance transactions. The gross potential recoveries represent the Company's estimate of undiscounted probability-weighted recoveries of actual claim payments and recoveries of estimated future claim payments, and principally relate to insured second-lien RMBS transactions and U.S. public finance transactions. The Company's recoveries have been, and remain based on either salvage rights, the rights conferred to MBIA through the transactional documents (inclusive of the insurance agreement), or subrogation rights embedded within financial guarantee insurance policies. Expected salvage and subrogation recoveries, as well as recoveries from other remediation efforts, reduce the Company's claim liability. Once a claim payment has been made, the claim liability has been satisfied and MBIA's right to recovery is no longer considered an offset to future expected claim payments, it is recorded as a salvage asset. The amount of recoveries recorded by the Company is limited to paid claims plus the present value of projected future claim payments. As claim payments are made, the recorded amount of potential recoveries may exceed the remaining amount of the claim liability for a given policy. The gross claim liability and gross potential recoveries reflect the elimination of claim liabilities and potential recoveries related to VIEs consolidated by the Company. The following table presents the components of the Company's loss and LAE reserves and insurance loss recoverable as reported on the Company's consolidated balance sheets as of September 30, 2013 and December 31, 2012 for insured obligations within MBIA's “Classified List.” The loss reserves (claim liability) and insurance claim loss recoverable included in the following table represent the present value of the probability-weighted future claim payments and recoveries reported in the preceding tables.
|  |  |  | As of |  | As of |
| In millions |  | September 30, 2013 |  | December 31, 2012 |
| Loss reserves (claim liability) |  | $ | 635 |  | $ | 790 |
| LAE reserves |  |  | 53 |  |  | 63 |
|  | Loss and LAE reserves |  | $ | 688 |  | $ | 853 |
| Insurance claim loss recoverable |  | $ | (737) |  | $ | (3,610) |
| LAE insurance loss recoverable |  |  | (5) |  |  | (38) |
|  | Insurance loss recoverable |  | $ | (742) |  | $ | (3,648) |
| Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses |  | $ | 7 |  | $ | 14 |
| Reinsurance recoverable on paid losses |  |  | 0 |  |  | 1 |
|  | Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses |  | $ | 7 |  | $ | 15 |
As of September 30, 2013, loss and LAE reserves include $1.0 billion of reserves for expected future payments offset by expected recoveries of such future payments of $326 million. As of December 31, 2012, loss and LAE reserves included $1.2 billion of reserves for expected future payments offset by expected recoveries of such future payments of $332 million. As of September 30, 2013, the insurance loss recoverable principally related to expected future recoveries on second-lien RMBS transactions resulting from expected excess spread generated by performing loans in such transactions. As of December 31, 2012, the insurance loss recoverable principally related to estimated recoveries of payments made by the Company resulting from ineligible mortgage loans in certain insured second-lien residential mortgage loan securitizations that are subject to a contractual obligation by the sellers/servicers to repurchase or replace the ineligible mortgage loans and expected future recoveries on second-lien RMBS transactions resulting from expected excess spread generated by performing loans in such transactions. To date, as a result of the Bank of America and Flagstar Bank settlements, as well as the agreement between Consenting Claimants, ResCap and Ally, in the ResCap bankruptcy proceeding discussed above, the Company expects to be reimbursed for the majority of its potential recoveries related to ineligible mortgage loans by the end of 2013 or early 2014, which are primarily included in “Loan repurchase commitments” presented under the heading “Assets of consolidated variable interest entities” on the Company's consolidated balance sheets. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, the Company collected approximately $2.9 b i ll i on, net of reinsurance, of which $2.8 billion, net of reinsurance, re l ated to i n sured second-l ien RMBS transact i ons. The Company made payments of $372 million, of which $166 million re l ated to i n sured second-l ien RMBS transact i ons and $134 million related to U.S. public finance issues. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, the decrease in i ns u rance loss recoverable rel a ted to paid losses tot a led $2.9 bil l ion, and primarily resulted from the collections of previously established recoveries relat e d to the settlement with Bank of America on the ineligible mortgage loans related to ins u red second-lien RMBS transactions. The following table presents the amounts of the Company's second-lien RMBS exposure, gross undiscounted claim liability and potential recoveries related to non-consolidated VIEs and consolidated VIEs, included in the Company's “Classified List,” as of September 30, 2013.
Second-lien RMBS Exposure |  |  |  | Outstanding |  | Gross Undiscounted
|  |  |  |  | Gross |  | Gross |  | Claim |  | Potential
$ in billions |  | Issues |  | Principal |  | Interest |  | Liability |  | Recoveries
Excluding Consolidated VIEs: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Non-consolidated VIEs |  | 23 |  | $ | 3.6 |  | $ | 1.3 |  | $ | 0.2 |  | $ | 0.9
Consolidated VIEs: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Consolidated VIEs |  | 11 |  | $ | 1.8 |  | $ | 0.7 |  | $ | 0.1 |  | $ | 1.4
The following table presents changes in the Company's loss and LAE reserves for the nine months ended September 30, 2013. Changes in the loss and LAE reserves attributable to the accretion of the claim liability discount, changes in discount rates, changes in the timing and amounts of estimated payments and recoveries, changes in assumptions and changes in LAE reserves are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company's consolidated statements of operations. As of September 30, 2013, the weighted average risk-free rate used to discount the Company's loss reserves (claim liability) was 2.11%. LAE reserves are expected to be settled within a one-year period and are not discounted.
In millions |  | Changes in Loss and LAE Reserves for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2013 |  |  |
Gross Loss |  | Loss |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Gross Loss
and LAE |  | Payments |  | Accretion |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Changes in |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | and LAE
Reserves as of |  | for Cases |  | of Claim |  | Changes in |  |  |  | Unearned |  | Changes in |  |  |  | Reserves as of
December 31, |  | with |  | Liability |  | Discount |  | Changes in |  | Premium |  | LAE |  |  |  | September 30,
2012 |  | Reserves |  | Discount |  | Rates |  | Assumptions |  | Revenue |  | Reserves |  | Other(1) |  | 2013
$ | 853 |  | $ | (293) |  | $ | 10 |  | $ | (71) |  | $ | 116 |  | $ | 2 |  | $ | (10) |  | $ | 81 |  | $ | 688
__________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(1) - Primarily changes in amount and timing of payments.
The decrease in the Company's gross loss and LAE reserves reflected in the preceding table was primarily due to a decrease in reserves related to loss payments on insured first and second-lien RMBS securitizations and U.S. public finance issues, partially offset by changes in assumptions. C u rr en t pe r io d ch a nge s i n th e C o m pan y's est i mat e o f p o tent i a l r e c o v e r i e s ma y be r e c o r de d a s a n in s u r an c e l oss r e c ove r a bl e as s et, net t e d a g ain s t th e g r os s l o s s an d L A E r e se r v e l i abi l i t y, or bo t h. The following table present s changes in the Company's insurance loss recoverable and changes in recoveries on unpaid losses reported within the Company's claim liability for the nine months ended September 30, 2013. Changes in insurance loss recoverable attributable to the accretion of the discount on the recoverable, changes in discount rates, changes in the timing and amounts of estimated collections, changes in assumptions and changes in LAE recoveries are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company's consolidated statements of operations.
|  |  |  |  |  | Changes in Insurance Loss Recoverable and Recoveries on Unpaid Losses |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  | for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2013 |  |  |
|  |  | Gross |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Gross
|  |  | Reserve |  | Collections |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Reserve
|  |  | as of |  | for Cases |  | Accretion |  | Changes in |  |  |  |  | Changes in |  |  |  | as of
|  |  | December 31, |  | with |  | of |  | Discount |  | Changes in |  | LAE |  |  |  | September 30,
In millions |  | 2012 |  | Recoveries |  | Recoveries |  | Rates |  | Assumptions |  | Recoveries |  | Other(1) |  | 2013
Insurance loss |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| recoverable |  | $ | 3,648 |  | $ | (2,981) |  | $ | 16 |  | $ | (25) |  | $ | 129 |  | $ | (33) |  | $ | (12) |  | $ | 742
Recoveries on unpaid |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| losses |  |  | 332 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 4 |  |  | (27) |  |  | 15 |  |  | 2 |  |  | 0 |  |  | 326
Total |  | $ | 3,980 |  | $ | (2,981) |  | $ | 20 |  | $ | (52) |  | $ | 144 |  | $ | (31) |  | $ | (12) |  | $ | 1,068
__________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(1) Primarily changes in amount and timing of collections. |  |  |
Th e C ompan y's i n s uran ce l o ss re c overabl e decreased durin g 2013 pr i mar ily du e to recoveries a ss o ci ate d with i ss ue s out s tandin g a s o f December 31, 2012, w hi ch relate d t o the settlement with Bank of America on the ineligibl e mortgag e loans include d i n in s ure d s e c ond-lie n re s identia l mortgag e s e c uriti z atio n e x po s ure s tha t ar e s ubje ct t o contra c tua l obligation s by s eller s/s er v icer s t o repur c has e o r repla ce s u ch mortgages. R e c overie s o n unpai d los s e s decreased primaril y du e t o changes in discount rates, partially offset by c hange s i n a s sumption s. The following table presents the Company's total estimated recoveries from ineligible mortgage loans included in certain insured second-lien mortgage loan securitizations as of September 30, 2013. The total estimated recoveries from ineligible mortgage loans of $1.1 billion include $18 m illion recorded as “Insurance loss recoverable” and $1.1 billion recorded as “Loan repurchase commitments” presented under the heading “Assets of consolidated variable interest entities” on the Company's consolidated balance sheets.
In millions |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Total Estimated |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total Estimated
Recoveries from |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Recoveries from
Ineligible Mortgage |  | Accretion |  | Changes in |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Ineligible Mortgage
Loans as of |  | of Future |  | Discount |  | Recoveries |  |  | Changes in |  |  |  | Loans as of
December 31, 2012 |  | Collections |  | Rates |  | (Collections) |  | Assumptions |  | Other(1) |  | September 30, 2013
$ | 3,583 |  | $ | 20 |  | $ | (7) |  | $ | (2,897) |  | $ | 433 |  | $ | 1 |  | $ | 1,133
__________ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
(1) Primarily changes in amount and timing of collections.
The decrease in the Company's total estimated recoveries from ineligible mortgage loans in the preceding table primarily resulted from the collections of previously established recoveries related to the settlement with Bank of America and Flagstar Bank on the ineligible mortgage loans related to insured second-lien RMBS securitizations. Re m ed i a t i o n a c t io n s m a y i n v o l v e, a m on g o t he r t hi n g s, wai v e rs o r r en e go t i a t i on s o f f i nan c ia l c o v ena n t s o r t r igge rs, wai v e rs o f c on t r a c t u a l p r o v i s ion s, t h e g r an t in g o f c on s en t s, t r a n s f e r o f s e rv i c ing, c o n s i de r a t io n o f r e s t r u c t u r in g p l an s, a cc ele r a t io n, s e c u r i t y o r c o l la t e r a l en f o r c e m e n t, a c t io n s i n ban kr up t cy o r r e c ei v e rs hip, li t iga t io n an d s i m ila r a c t ion s. T he t y p e s o f r e m e d ia l a c t i on s p u r s u e d a r e b a s e d o n t h e in s u r e d obl i ga t ion's r i sk t y p e a n d t h e na t u re an d s c o p e o f t h e e v e n t gi v i n g r i s e t o t h e r e m edia t ion. A s pa rt o f a n y s u ch r e m edia l a c t ion s, MB I A s e e ks t o i m p r o ve i t s s e c u r i t y p o s i t i o n an d t o ob t ai n c on c e ss ion s f r o m t h e i ss ue r o f t h e in s u r e d obl i ga t ion. F r o m t i me t o t i m e, t h e i ss ue r o f a n M B I A-in s u r e d obl i ga t i on m a y, wi t h t h e c on s en t o f M B I A, r e s t r u c t u re t h e in s u r e d ob l iga t io n b y e x t en d in g t h e t e r m, in cr ea s in g o r de cr ea s in g t h e p a r a m oun t o r de cr ea s i n g t h e r ela t e d in t e r e st r a t e, wi t h M B I A in s u r i n g t h e r e s t r u c t u r e d obl i ga t i on. Co s t s a ss o c ia t e d wi t h r e m ed i a t i n g in s u r e d obl i ga t ion s a s s i gne d t o t h e Co m pan y's “C a u t i o n Li s t—Low,” “C a u t i o n L i s t—M ediu m,” “Cau t io n L i s t—High” an d “Cla ss i f ie d Li s t” a re r e c o r de d a s L A E. L AE i s p r i m a r i l y r e c o r de d a s pa rt o f t he Co m pan y's p r o v i s io n f o r i t s lo ss r e s e rv e s an d in c lud e d i n “L o s s e s an d lo ss adju s t m e n t” expenses o n t h e Co m pa n y's c on s ol i da t ed s t a t e m en t s o f ope r a t ion s. T h e f o l lowi n g t abl e p r e s en t s t h e gross e x pen s e s r el a t e d t o r e m ed i al a c t ion s f o r in s u r e d ob l iga t ion s:
|  |  | Nine Months Ended September 30, |
| In millions |  | 2013 |  | 2012 |
| Loss adjustment expense incurred, gross |  | $ | 31 |  | $ | 113 |

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- Definition The entire disclosure for liabilities related to future policy benefits and unpaid claims and claim adjustments. + References Reference 1: http://www.xbrl.org/2003/role/presentationRef -Publisher SEC -Name Regulation S-X (SX) -Number 210 -Section 03 -Paragraph 13 -Article 7 Reference 2: http://www.xbrl.org/2003/role/presentationRef -Publisher FASB -Name Accounting Standards Codification -Topic 944 -SubTopic 40 -Section 50 -Paragraph 3 -URI http://asc.fasb.org/extlink&oid=6482485&loc=d3e14764-158437 Reference 3: http://www.xbrl.org/2003/role/presentationRef -Publisher FASB -Name Accounting Standards Codification -Topic 944 -SubTopic 40 -Section 50 -Paragraph 6 -URI http://asc.fasb.org/extlink&oid=6482852&loc=d3e14931-158439 Reference 4: http://www.xbrl.org/2003/role/presentationRef -Publisher FASB -Name Accounting Standards Codification -Topic 944 -SubTopic 40 -Section 50 -Paragraph 1 -URI http://asc.fasb.org/extlink&oid=6482485&loc=d3e14754-158437 Reference 5: http://www.xbrl.org/2003/role/presentationRef -Publisher FASB -Name Accounting Standards Codification -Topic 944 -SubTopic 210 -Section S99 -Paragraph 1 -Subparagraph (SX 210.7-03.13(a)(1),(b)) -URI http://asc.fasb.org/extlink&oid=6879938&loc=d3e572229-122910 + Details
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