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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties | 9 Months Ended
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Sep. 30, 2018
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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties | Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties Summary MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates within the financial guarantee insurance industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is primarily operated through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”) and its international and structu red finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries (“MBIA Corp.”). Refer to “Note 10: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments. Business Developments Financial Strength R atings In June of 2017, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) downgraded the financial strength rating of National which made it difficult for National to compete with higher-rated competitors. Theref ore, at that time, National ceased its effort s to actively pursue writing new financial guarantee business. The Company then terminated its agreements with S&P, Kroll Bond Rating Agency (“Kroll”) and Moody’s Investors Services (“Moody’s”) to provide financial strength ratings to MBIA Inc. and certain of its subsidiaries. S&P and Kroll subsequently withdrew all of their ratings. On January 17, 2018, Moody’s downgraded the financial strength rating of National to Baa2 from A3 with a stable outlook, affirmed the financial strength rating of MBIA Corp. at Caa1 with a developing outlook, downgraded MBIA Inc.’s rating to Ba3 with a stable outlook from Ba1 with a negative outlook, and affirmed the financial strength rating of MBIA Mexico S.A. de C.V. (“MBIA Mexico”) at Caa1/B3.mx with a developing outlook. Mo ody’s, at its discretion and in the absence of a contract with the Company, continues to maintain ratings on MBIA Inc. and its subsidiaries. Stock Warrants In April and June of 2018, the holder of certain MBIA Inc. warrants exercised its right to purchase, in total, 11.85 million shares of MBIA Inc. common stock at an exercise price of $9.59 per share. As a result, the Company issued a total of 1.3 million shares of MBIA Inc. common stock to the holder in accordance with the cashless settlement provision of the warrants. As of September 30, 2018, there were no warrants outstanding. Risks and Uncertainties The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in fut ure periods. U.S. Public Finance Market Conditions National continues to surveil and remediate its existing insured portfolio and will seek opportunities to enhance shareholder value using its strong financial resources, while protecting the interests of all of its policyholders. Certain state and local governments and territory obligors that National insures remain under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and los ses or impairments on a greater number of National’s insured transactions. National monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain. In particular, the Commonwealt h of Puerto Rico and certain of its instrumentalities (“Puerto Rico”) are experiencing significant fiscal stress and constrained liquidity due to, among other things, Puerto Rico’s structural budget imbalance, the lack of access to the capital markets, a s tagnating local economy, net migration of people out of Puerto Rico and a high debt burden. Although Puerto Rico has tried to address its challenges through various fiscal policies, it continues to experience significant fiscal stress. On January 1, 2018 a nd July 1, 2018, Puerto Rico defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $276 million. Puerto Rico continues in its efforts to rebuild its infrastructure and to otherwise recover from th e impact of Hurricane Maria in 2017, aided in part by the F ederal E mergency Management A gency and other federal agencies. The extent and duration of such aid is inherently uncertain, and the necessary and greater involvement of the federal government, thro ugh its actions to deliver disaster relief and other support services, in addition to the evolving role of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (the “Oversight Board”) and the role of Puerto Rico in its own recovery, heightens polit ical risk in connection with the restructuring of legacy debt. This risk could lead the Oversight Board, Puerto Rico or the federal government to seek to extract greater concessions from creditors based on the uncertainty of Puerto Rico’s long term recover y prospects. In this event, losses at National on select Puerto Rico exposures could increase materially. MBIA Corp. Insured Portfolio MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy all claims by its policyholders and to maximize future recoveries, if any, for its senior lending and other surplus note holders, and then its preferred stock holders. MBIA Corp. is executing this strategy by, among other things, pursuing various actions focused on maximizing the collection of recoveries and by reducing potenti al losses on its insurance exposures. MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure additional liquidity through financing and other transactions. There can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient cash to meet its obligations. Zohar and RMBS Recoveries Payment of claims totaling $919 million in November of 2015 and January of 2017, on MBIA Corp.’s policies insuring the class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited (“Zohar I”) and insuring certain notes issued by Zohar II 2005-1, Limited (“Zohar II”), entitles MBIA Corp. to reimburse ment of such amounts plus interest and expenses and/or to exercise certain rights and remedies to seek recovery of such amounts. MBIA Corp. anticipates that the primary source of the recoveries will come from the monetization of the assets of Zohar I and Z ohar II, which include, among other things, loans made to, and equity interests in, companies purportedly controlled by the sponsor and former collateral manager of Zohar I and Zohar II (the “Zohar Sponsor”) (all the assets of Zohar I and Zohar II, the “Zo har Assets”). On March 11, 2018, the then-director of Zohar I and Zohar II placed those funds into voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in federal bankruptcy court in the District of Delaware (the “Zohar Funds Bankruptcy Cases”). On May 21, 2018, the Court gra nted the Zohar funds’ motion to approve a settlement (the “Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement”) which established a process by which the debtor funds, through an independent director and a chief restructuring officer, will work with the original sponsor of the fu nds to monetize the Zohar Assets and repay creditors, including MBIA Corp. In addition, the Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement provides for a stay of all pending litigation between the parties for a minimum of fifteen months. Subsequent to the Zohar Bankruptcy Se ttlement, the Company deconsolidated Zohar I and Zohar II as variable interest entities (“VIEs” or “VIE”) and, as of September 30, 2018, salvage and subrogation recoveries related to Zohar I and Zohar II are reported within “Insurance loss recoverable” o n the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. Refer to “Note 4: Variable Interest Entities” for additional information about the deconsolidation of the Zohar funds. Notwithstanding the Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement, there can be no assurance that the value of the Zohar Assets will be sufficient to permit MBIA Corp. to recover all or substantially all of the payments it made on Zohar I and Zohar II. MBIA Corp. also projects to collect excess spread from insured residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”), and to recover proceeds from Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. and Select Portfolio Servicing Inc. (collectively, “Credit Suisse”) arising from its failure to repurchase ineligible loans that were included in a Credit Suisse sp onsored RMBS transaction. However, the amount and timing of these collections and recoveries are uncertain. Failure to collect a substantial amount of its expected recoveries could impede MBIA Corp.’s ability to make payments when due on other policies. M BIA Corp. believes that if the New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYSDFS”) concludes at any time that MBIA Insurance Corporation will not be able to pay its policyholder claims, the NYSDFS would likely put MBIA Insurance Corporation into a r ehabilitation or liquidation proceeding under Article 74 of the New York Insurance Law and/or take such other actions as the NYSDFS may deem necessary to protect the interests of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s policyholders. The determination to commence suc h a proceeding or take other such actions is within the exclusive control of the NYSDFS. Given the separation of MBIA Inc. and MBIA Corp. as distinct legal entities, the absence of any cross defaults between the entities and the lack of reliance by MBIA I nc. on MBIA Corp. for the receipt of dividends, the Company does not believe that a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding with respect to MBIA Insurance Corporation would have any significant liquidity impact on MBIA Inc. or result in a liquidation or s imilar proceeding of MBIA Mexico. Such a proceeding could have material adverse consequences for MBIA Corp., including the termination of insured credit default swaps (“CDS”) and other derivative contracts for which counterparties may assert market-based c laims, the acceleration of debt obligations issued by affiliates and insured by MBIA Corp., the loss of control of MBIA Insurance Corporation to a rehabilitator or liquidator, and unplanned costs. Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for additional information about MBI A Corp.’s r ecoveries. Corporate Liquidity Subsequent to September 30, 2018, National declared and paid a dividend of $108 million to its ultimate parent, MBIA Inc. Also, subsequent to September 30, 201 8, National purchased from MBIA Inc., certain MBIA Inc. 5.700% Senior Notes due 2034 and certain MBIA Inc. 7.000% Debentures due 2025 that were previously repurchased by MBIA Inc. and had not been retired, resulting in an increase to MBIA Inc.’s liquidity of $41 million. Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends, additional anticipated releases under its tax sharing agreement and related tax escrow account (“Tax Escrow Account”), and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk which could be triggered by deterioration in the performance of invested assets, interruption of or reduction in dividends or tax payments received from operating subsidiarie s, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors which are not anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are also insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.

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