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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties | 3 Months Ended
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Mar. 31, 2021
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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties | Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties Summary MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates within the financial guarantee insurance industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is managed through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”), the corporate segment is operated through MBIA Inc. and several of its subsidiaries, including its service company, MBIA Services Corporation (“MBIA Services”) and its international and structured finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiary (“MBIA Corp.”). Refer to “Note 10: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments. Business Developments Puerto Rico On January 1, 2021, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and certain of its instrumentalities (“Puerto Rico”) defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claim payments in the aggregate of $51 million. As of March 31, 2021, National had $2.9 billion of debt service outstanding related to Puerto Rico. Refer to the “Risks and Uncertainties” section below for additional information on the Company’s Puerto Rico exposures. PREPA RSA In September of 2019, National agreed to join the restructuring support agreement, as amended (“RSA”), with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”), other monoline insurers, a group of uninsured PREPA bondholders, Puerto Rico, and the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (the “Oversight Board”). The Rule 9019 hearing to approve the RSA has been delayed several times, and most recently was adjourned due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 (“COVID-19”) until further notice. The debt restructuring contemplated by the RSA will not be effective until (i) confirmation of a plan of adjustment under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (“PROMESA”), (ii) negotiation and consummation of definitive documentation and legal opinions, (iii) enactment and implementation of supportive Puerto Rico legislation and (iv) receipt of Puerto Rico regulatory approval, each of which outcome is uncertain and subject to varying degrees of risk. GO PSA and HTA PSA On February 22, 2021, National agreed to join a plan support agreement, dated as of February 22, 2021 (the “GO PSA”), among the Oversight Board, certain holders of GO Bonds and PBA Bonds, Assured Guaranty Corp. and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp, and Syncora Guarantee Inc. in connection with the GO and PBA Title III cases. The GO PSA provides that, among other things, National shall receive a pro rata share of allocable cash, newly issued General Obligation bonds, a contingent value instrument and certain fees. The GO PSA also permitted National to terminate its participation in the GO PSA on or prior to March 31, 2021, which date was extended ultimately to May 5, 2021. On April 12, 2021, National, Assured Guaranty Corp., Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and the Oversight Board reached an agreement in principle settli n g certain clawback claims and providing for a distribution of cash, bonds and a contingent value instrument to bondholders in the Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority (“HTA”) Title III case subject to completing negotiations on a plan support agreement in respect of an HTA plan of adjustment (the “HTA PSA”). On May 5, 2021, National, Assured Guaranty Corp., Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and the Oversight Board entered into the HTA PSA, and National thereby agreed not to terminate its participation in the GO PSA. The Oversight Board has committed to filing a plan of adjustment for HTA by January 31, 2022. The GO PSA contemplates a Commonwealth plan becoming effective on or before December 15, 2021. Pursuant to the GO PSA, the Oversight Board and National shall jointly request the entry of an order in the Title III court staying National’s actions to appoint a trustee in the HTA Title III case pursuant to Section 926 currently before the First Circuit Court of Appeals, together with other actions related to the clawback of HTA funds from the Commonwealth, and National shall take no further action with respect to those proceedings subject to the Commonwealth plan becoming effective. On April 6, 2021, the Oversight Board filed a m o tion seeking to schedule the hearing to consider the adequacy of the disclosure statement for the Commonwealth plan of adjustment for June 16, 2021.By order dated May 4, 2021, Judge Swain set the disclosure statement hearing for July 13, 2021. Credit Suisse In January of 2021, the Court overseeing MBIA Corp.’s litigation against Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC and DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. (collectively, “Credit Suisse”), involving the ineligibility of a majority of the loans in the HEMT 2007-2 RMBS transaction sponsored by Credit Suisse, issued an order declaring that Credit Suisse was liable to MBIA for approximately $604 million in damages. In February of 2021, the parties to the litigation entered into a settlement agreement pursuant to which Credit Suisse paid MBIA Corp. $600 million, and the Court entered an order dismissing the case. Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for a discussion of the Company’s Credit Suisse put-back claims. MBIA Corp. Refinanced Facility During the three months ended March 31, 2021, MBIA Corp. prepaid $150 million of the MZ Funding LLC (“MZ Funding”) financing facility’s 12% senior notes maturing on January 20, 2022 (“Refinanced Facility”). As of March 31, 2021, the consolidated outstanding amount of the Refinanced Facility was $127 million is included in “Variable interest entity notes” under “Liabilities of consolidated variable interest entities” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. Risks and Uncertainties The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in future periods. COVID-19 COVID-19 continues to affect a wide range of economic activities, as well as domestic and global business and financial markets. The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration may materially reduce the impact of COVID-19 going forward, although the long-term impact of the virus including certain new strains remain uncertain. The attendant governmental policy and social responses, and economic and financial consequences, continue to be the subject of considerable attention. Insured portfolios The Company continues to assess the financial impact of the pandemic on its operating insurance companies’ overall insured portfolios. Adverse developments on macroeconomic factors resulting from the spread of COVID-19, including without limitation reduced economic activity and certainty, increased unemployment, increased loan defaults or delinquencies, and increased stress on municipal budgets, including due to reduced tax revenues and the ability to raise taxes or limit spending, could materially and adversely affect the performance of the Company’s insured portfolios. The impact of the pandemic on the Company’s financial guarantee credits varies based on the nature of the taxes, fees and revenues pledged to debt repayment and their sensitivity to the related slowdown in economic activity. The duration of the pandemic, the efficacy of vaccines, spending of federal aid to state and local governments, and the breadth and speed of economic recovery will determine the economic stress incurred by the credits in the Company’s insured portfolios. Further, any national recession that may result from the pandemic and its aftermath could present additional but yet unknown credit risks to the Company’s insured portfolios. Federal legislation passed to combat the economic impact of the pandemic has been significant, including the $2.7 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (“CARES”) Act in 2020, which included significant aid to offset COVID-19 related expenditures of public sector issuers including states, territories, healthcare, higher education and transportation issuers. Also, the Federal Reserve has shown willingness to promote the stability of the financial system that are directly supportive of the municipal market, such as the Municipal Lending Facility created in 2020. In March of 2021, Congress passed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package designed to further stabilize the financial system. This law allocated nearly $350 billion of aid to state and local governments to replace lost revenues resulting from the pandemic with relatively few restrictions on use of said funds. While the unprecedented amount of federal aid directed to state and local municipalities has blunted the impact of the pandemic, not all of the issuers of the obligations in National’s insured portfolio are eligible to receive it. Further, if issuers are unable to raise taxes, reduce spending, or receive federal assistance, the Company may experience new or additional losses or impairments on those obligations, which could materially and adversely affect its business, financial condition and financial results. Certain of MBIA Corp.’s structured finance policies, including those in which the underlying principal obligations are comprised of residential or commercial mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), could be negatively impacted by delays or failures of borrowers to make payments of principal and interest when due, or delays or moratoriums on foreclosures or enforcement actions with respect to delinquent or defaulted mortgages imposed by governmental authorities. MBIA Corp. has recorded significant loss reserves on its residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) and collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”) exposures, and there can be no assurance that these reserves will be sufficient if the pandemic causes further deterioration to the economy. These transactions are also subject to servicer risks, which relate to problems with the transaction’s servicer that could adversely impact performance of the underlying assets. Additionally, several of the Company’s credits, particularly within its international public finance sector, feature large, near term debt-service payments, and there can be no assurance that the liquidity position of MBIA Corp. will enable it to satisfy any claims that arise if the issuers of such credits are unable or unwilling to refinance or repay their obligations. MBIA Corp. has recorded substantial expected recoveries on certain RMBS transactions, and the forbearance options that mortgage borrowers who were facing financial difficulties took advantage of under the CARES Act, may delay or impair collections on these recoveries. Liquidity The Company continues to monitor its cash and liquid asset resources using cash forecasting and stress-scenario testing. Members of the Company’s senior management meet regularly to review liquidity metrics, discuss contingency plans and establish target liquidity levels. It remains uncertain to predict the full long-term impact the pandemic may have on the Company’s future liquidity position and needs. Declines in the market value or rating eligibility of assets pledged against the Company’s obligations as a result of credit market deterioration caused by COVID-19 require additional eligible assets to be pledged in order to meet minimum required collateral amounts against these obligations. This could require the Company to sell assets, potentially with substantial losses or use free cash or other assets to meet the collateral requirements, thus negatively impacting the Company’s liquidity position. Associated declines in the yields in its insurance companies’ fixed-income portfolios could materially impact investment income. U.S. Public Finance Market Conditions National continues to monitor and remediate its existing insured portfolio and may also pursue strategic alternatives that could enhance shareholder value. Certain state and local governments and territory obligors that National insures are under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of National’s insured transactions. National monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain. MBIA Corp. Insured Portfolio MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy all claims by its policyholders and to maximize future recoveries, if any, for its senior lending and surplus note holders, and then its preferred stock holders. MBIA Corp. is executing this strategy by, among other things, taking steps to maximize the collection of recoveries and by reducing and mitigating potential losses on its insurance exposures. MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio performance could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure additional liquidity through financing and other transactions. There can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient resources to meet its obligations. Zohar and RMBS Recoveries Payment of claims on MBIA Corp.’s policies insuring the Class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited (“Zohar I”) and Zohar II 2005-1, Limited (“Zohar II”), entitles MBIA Corp. to reimbursement of such amounts plus interest and expenses and/or to exercise certain rights and remedies to seek recovery of such amounts. MBIA Corp. anticipates that the primary source of the recoveries will come from the monetization of the assets of Zohar I and Zohar II (the “Zohar Assets”), but there can be no assurance that the monetization of the Zohar Assets will yield amounts sufficient to permit MBIA Corp. to recover a substantial portion of the payments it made on Zohar I and Zohar II. In particular, as the monetization process unfolds and new information concerning the financial condition of the portfolio companies which comprise a significant portion of the Zohar Assets is disclosed, the Company may revise its expectations for recoveries. For example, at a June 3, 2020 hearing, counsel for one of the portfolio companies announced that the monetization process for that company would be delayed as a consequence of having to investigate issues relating to the integrity of the company’s financial statements. MBIA Corp. also projects to collect excess spread from insured RMBS; however, the amount and timing of these collections are uncertain. Failure to collect its expected recoveries could impede MBIA Corp.’s ability to make payments when due on other policies. MBIA Corp. believes that if the New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYSDFS”) concludes at any time that MBIA Insurance Corporation will not be able to pay its policyholder claims, the NYSDFS would likely put MBIA Insurance Corporation into a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding under Article 74 of the New York Insurance Law (“NYIL”) and/or take such other actions as the NYSDFS may deem necessary to protect the interests of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s policyholders. The determination to commence such a proceeding or take other such actions is within the exclusive control of the NYSDFS. Given the separation of MBIA Inc. and MBIA Corp. as distinct legal entities, the absence of any cross defaults between the entities and the lack of reliance by MBIA Inc. on MBIA Corp. for dividends, the Company does not believe that a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding with respect to MBIA Insurance Corporation would have any significant liquidity impact on MBIA Inc. Such a proceeding could have material adverse consequences for MBIA Corp., including the termination of derivative contracts for which counterparties may assert market-based claims, the acceleration of debt obligations issued by affiliates and insured by MBIA Corp., the loss of control of MBIA Insurance Corporation to a rehabilitator or liquidator, and unplanned costs. Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for additional information about MBIA Corp.’s recoveries. Corporate Liquidity Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk that could be caused by interruption of or reduction in dividends from National, deterioration in the performance of invested assets, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors, which are not anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.

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