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6. Property and Casualty Insurance Activity

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2019

6. Property and Casualty Insurance Activity

Premiums Earned

Premiums written, ceded and earned are as follows:

	Direct			Assumed			Ceded			Net

Three months ended March 31, 2019
Premiums written	$	37,488,548		$	(34	)	$	(7,127,909	)	$	30,360,605
Change in unearned premiums		(628,067	)		195			(136,844	)		(764,716	)
Premiums earned	$	36,860,481		$	161		$	(7,264,753	)	$	29,595,889

Three months ended March 31, 2018
Premiums written	$	31,526,283		$	336		$	(7,826,235	)	$	23,700,384
Change in unearned premiums		(1,008,869	)		1,901			144,201			(862,767	)
Premiums earned	$	30,517,414		$	2,237		$	(7,682,034	)	$	22,837,617

Premium receipts in advance of the policy effective date are recorded as advance premiums. The balance of advance premiums as of March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018 was $3,064,413 and $2,107,629, respectively.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending balances for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves:

	Three months ended
	March 31,
	2019			2018

Balance at beginning of period	$	56,197,106		$	48,799,622
Less reinsurance recoverables		(15,671,247	)		(16,748,908	)
Net balance, beginning of period		40,525,859			32,050,714

Incurred related to:
Current year		24,655,975			17,367,560
Prior years		4,478,249			(101,230	)
Total incurred		29,134,224			17,266,330

Paid related to:
Current year		7,731,086			5,971,788
Prior years		8,405,440			6,495,154
Total paid		16,136,526			12,466,942

Net balance at end of period		53,523,557			36,850,102
Add reinsurance recoverables		15,586,714			19,422,011
Balance at end of period	$	69,110,271		$	56,272,113

Incurred losses and LAE are net of reinsurance recoveries under reinsurance contracts of $3,135,894 and $5,612,056 for the three months ended March 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Prior year incurred loss and LAE development is based upon estimates by line of business and accident year. Prior year loss and LAE development incurred during the three months ended March 31, 2019 and 2018 was $4,478,249 unfavorable and $(101,230), favorable, respectively. During the three months ended March 31, 2019, the Company increased case reserves for certain older open liability claims, which primarily affected the ultimate loss projections for commercial lines business. The Company’s management continually monitors claims activity to assess the appropriateness of carried case and incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves, giving consideration to Company and industry trends.

The reserving process for loss and LAE reserves provides for the Company’s best estimate at a particular point in time of the ultimate unpaid cost of all losses and LAE incurred, including settlement and administration of losses, and is based on facts and circumstances then known including losses that have occurred but that have not yet been reported. The process relies on standard actuarial reserving methodologies, judgments relative to estimates of ultimate claims’ severity and frequency, the length of time before losses will develop to their ultimate level (‘tail’ factors), and the likelihood of changes in the law or other external factors that are beyond the Company’s control. Several actuarial reserving methodologies are used to estimate required loss reserves. The process produces carried reserves set by management based upon the actuaries’ best estimate and is the cumulative combination of the best estimates made by line of business, accident year, and loss and LAE. The amount of loss and LAE reserves for individual reported claims (the “case reserve”) is determined by the claims department and changes over time as new information is gathered. Such information includes a review of coverage applicability, comparative liability on the part of the insured, injury severity, property damage, replacement cost estimates, and any other information considered pertinent to estimating the exposure presented by the claim. The amounts of loss and LAE reserves for unreported claims and development on known claims (IBNR reserves) are determined using historical information aggregated by line of insurance as adjusted to current conditions. Since this process produces loss reserves set by management based upon the actuaries’ best estimate, there is no explicit or implicit provision for uncertainty in the carried loss reserves.

Due to the inherent uncertainty associated with the reserving process, the ultimate liability may differ, perhaps substantially, from the original estimate. Such estimates are regularly reviewed and updated and any resulting adjustments are included in the current period’s results. Reserves are closely monitored and are recomputed periodically using the most recent information on reported claims and a variety of statistical techniques. On at least a quarterly basis, the Company reviews by line of business existing reserves, new claims, changes to existing case reserves and paid losses with respect to the current and prior periods. Several methods are used, varying by line of business and accident year, in order to select the estimated period-end loss reserves. These methods include the following:

Paid Loss Development – historical patterns of paid loss development are used to project future paid loss emergence in order to estimate required reserves.

Incurred Loss Development – historical patterns of incurred loss development, reflecting both paid losses and changes in case reserves, are used to project future incurred loss emergence in order to estimate required reserves.

Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“BF”) – an estimated loss ratio for a particular accident year is determined, and is weighted against the portion of the accident year claims that have been paid, based on historical paid loss development patterns. The estimate of required reserves assumes that the remaining unpaid portion of a particular accident year will pay out at a rate consistent with the estimated loss ratio for that year. This method can be useful for situations where an unusually high or low amount of paid losses exists at the early stages of the claims development process.

Incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson (“BF”) - an estimated loss ratio for a particular accident year is determined, and is weighted against the portion of the accident year claims that have been reported, based on historical incurred loss development patterns. The estimate of required reserves assumes that the remaining unreported portion of a particular accident year will pay out at a rate consistent with the estimated loss ratio for that year. This method can be useful for situations where an unusually high or low amount of reported losses exists at the early stages of the claims development process.

Incremental Claim-Based Methods – historical patterns of incremental incurred losses and paid LAE during various stages of development are reviewed and assumptions are made regarding average loss and LAE development applied to remaining claims inventory. Such methods more properly reflect changes in the speed of claims closure and the relative adequacy of case reserve levels at various stages of development. These methods also provide a more accurate estimate of IBNR for lines of business with relatively few remaining open claims but for which significant recent settlement activity has occurred.

Management’s best estimate of required reserves is generally based on an average of the methods above, with appropriate weighting of the various methods based on the line of business and accident year being projected. In some cases, additional methods or historical data from industry sources are employed to supplement the projections derived from the methods listed above.

Two key assumptions that materially affect the estimate of loss reserves are the loss ratio estimate for the current accident year used in the BF methods described above, and the loss development factor selections used in the loss development methods described above. The loss ratio estimates used in the BF methods are selected after reviewing historical accident year loss ratios adjusted for rate changes, trend, and mix of business.

The Company is not aware of any claim trends that have emerged or that would cause future adverse development that have not already been considered in existing case reserves and in its current loss development factors.

In New York State, lawsuits for negligence are subject to certain limitations and must be commenced within three years from the date of the accident or are otherwise barred. Accordingly, the Company’s exposure to unreported claims (“pure” IBNR) for accident dates of March 31, 2016 and prior is limited, although there remains the possibility of adverse development on reported claims (“case development” IBNR). In certain rare circumstances states have retroactively revised a statute of limitations. The Company is not aware of any such effort that would have a material impact on the Company’s results.

The following is information about incurred and paid claims development as of March 31, 2019, net of reinsurance, as well as the cumulative reported claims by accident year and total IBNR reserves as of March 31, 2019 included in the net incurred loss and allocated expense amounts. The historical information regarding incurred and paid claims development for the years ended December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2018 is presented as supplementary unaudited information.

All Lines of Business

(in thousands, except reported claims data)

											As of
	Incurred Loss and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance										March 31, 2019
	For the Years Ended December 31,									Three Months Ended March 31,	IBNR	Cumulative Number of Reported Claims by Accident Year
Accident Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	IBNR	Cumulative Number of Reported Claims by Accident Year
	(Unaudited 2010 - 2018)									(Unaudited)

2010	$5,598	$5,707	$6,429	$6,623	$6,912	$6,853	$6,838	$6,840	$6,787	$ 6,787	$ -	1,617
2011		7,603	7,678	8,618	9,440	9,198	9,066	9,144	9,171	9,175	-	1,914
2012			9,539	9,344	10,278	10,382	10,582	10,790	10,791	10,831	1	4,704	(1)
2013				10,728	9,745	9,424	9,621	10,061	10,089	10,068	35	1,560
2014					14,193	14,260	14,218	14,564	15,023	15,925	261	2,132
2015						22,340	21,994	22,148	22,491	22,598	497	2,553
2016							26,062	24,941	24,789	25,658	1,188	2,867
2017								31,605	32,169	33,597	2,920	3,350
2018									54,455	55,591	7,322	4,090
2019										23,359	8,904	962
									Total	$ 213,589
(1) Reported claims for accident year 2012 includes 3,406 claims from Superstorm Sandy.

All Lines of Business

(in thousands, except reported claims data)

	Cumulative Paid Loss and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
	For the Years Ended December 31,									Three Months Ended March 31,
Accident Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
	(Unaudited 2010 - 2018)									(Unaudited)

2009	$2,566	$3,947	$4,972	$5,602	$6,323	$6,576	$6,720	$6,772	$6,780	$ 6,780
2010		3,740	5,117	6,228	7,170	8,139	8,540	8,702	8,727	8,733
2011			3,950	5,770	7,127	8,196	9,187	10,236	10,323	10,412
2012				3,405	5,303	6,633	7,591	8,407	9,056	9,155
2013					5,710	9,429	10,738	11,770	13,819	13,860
2014						12,295	16,181	18,266	19,984	20,193
2015							15,364	19,001	21,106	21,306
2016								16,704	24,820	25,426
2017									32,383	39,136
2018										7,320
									Total	$ 162,321

Net liability for unpaid loss and allocated loss adjustment expenses for the accident years presented										$ 51,268
All outstanding liabilities before 2009, net of reinsurance										108
Liabilities for loss and allocated loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance										$ 51,376

Reported claim counts are measured on an occurrence or per event basis. A single claim occurrence could result in more than one loss type or claimant; however, the Company counts claims at the occurrence level as a single claim regardless of the number of claimants or claim features involved.

The reconciliation of the net incurred and paid loss development tables to the loss and LAE reserves in the consolidated balance sheet is as follows:

	As of
*(in thousands)*	March 31, 2019
Liabilities for loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance	$	51,376
Total reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses		15,587
Unallocated loss adjustment expenses		2,147
Total gross liability for loss and LAE reserves	$	69,110

Reinsurance

The Company’s quota share reinsurance treaties are on a July 1 through June 30 fiscal year basis; therefore, for year to date fiscal periods after June 30, two separate treaties will be included in such periods.

The Company’s quota share reinsurance treaties in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2019 and 2018 for its personal lines business, which primarily consists of homeowners’ policies, were covered under a treaty covering a two-year period from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2019 (“2017-2019 Treaty”). The treaty in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2019 is covered under the July 1, 2018 through June 30, 2019 treaty year (“2018/2019 Treaty Year”) and the treaty in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2018 was covered under the July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018 treaty year (“2017/2018 Treaty Year”).

In August 2018, the Company terminated its contract with one of the reinsurers that was a party to the 2017/2019 Treaty. This termination was retroactive to July 1, 2018 and had the effect of reducing the quota share ceding rate to 10% under the 2018/2019 Treaty Year from 20% under the 2017/2018 Treaty Year.

The Company entered into new excess of loss and catastrophe reinsurance treaties effective July 1, 2018. Material terms for reinsurance treaties in effect for the treaty years shown below are as follows:

	Treaty Year
	July 1, 2018	July 1, 2017	July 1, 2016
	to	to	to
Line of Busines	June 30, 2019	June 30, 2018	June 30, 2017

Personal Lines:
Homeowners, dwelling fire and canine legal liability
Quota share treaty:
Percent ceded	10%	20%	40%
Risk retained	$ 900,000	$ 800,000	$ 500,000
Losses per occurrence subject to quota share reinsurance coverage	$ 1,000,000	$ 1,000,000	$ 833,333
Excess of loss coverage and facultative facility above quota share coverage (1)	$ 9,000,000	$ 9,000,000	$ 3,666,667
	in excess of	in excess of	in excess of
	$ 1,000,000	$ 1,000,000	$ 833,333
Total reinsurance coverage per occurrence	$ 9,100,000	$ 9,200,000	$ 4,000,000
Losses per occurrence subject to reinsurance coverage	$ 10,000,000	$ 10,000,000	$ 4,500,000
Expiration date	June 30, 2019	June 30, 2019	June 30, 2017

Personal Umbrella
Quota share treaty:
Percent ceded - first $1,000,000 of coverage	90%	90%	90%
Percent ceded - excess of $1,000,000 dollars of coverage	100%	100%	100%
Risk retained	$ 100,000	$ 100,000	$ 100,000
Total reinsurance coverage per occurrence	$ 4,900,000	$ 4,900,000	$ 4,900,000
Losses per occurrence subject to quota share reinsurance coverage	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000
Expiration date	June 30, 2019	June 30, 2018	June 30, 2017

Commercial Lines:
General liability commercial policies
Quota share treaty	None	None	None
Risk retained	$ 750,000	$ 750,000	$ 500,000
Excess of loss coverage above risk retained	$ 3,750,000	$ 3,750,000	$ 4,000,000
	in excess of	in excess of	in excess of
	$ 750,000	$ 750,000	$ 500,000
Total reinsurance coverage per occurrence	$ 3,750,000	$ 3,750,000	$ 4,000,000
Losses per occurrence subject to reinsurance coverage	$ 4,500,000	$ 4,500,000	$ 4,500,000

Commercial Umbrella
Quota share treaty:
Percent ceded - first $1,000,000 of coverage	90%	90%	90%
Percent ceded - excess of $1,000,000 of coverage	100%	100%	100%
Risk retained	$ 100,000	$ 100,000	$ 100,000
Total reinsurance coverage per occurrence	$ 4,900,000	$ 4,900,000	$ 4,900,000
Losses per occurrence subject to quota share reinsurance coverage	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000
Expiration date	June 30, 2019	June 30, 2018	June 30, 2017

Catastrophe Reinsurance:
Initial loss subject to personal lines quota share treaty	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000	$ 5,000,000
Risk retained per catastrophe occurrence (2)	$ 4,500,000	$ 4,000,000	$ 3,000,000
Catastrophe loss coverage in excess of quota share coverage (3) (4)	$ 445,000,000	$ 315,000,000	$ 247,000,000
Reinstatement premium protection (5)	Yes	Yes	Yes

(1)	For personal lines, the 2017/2019 Treaty includes the addition of an automatic facultative facility allowing KICO to obtain homeowners single risk coverage up to $10,000,000 in total insured value, which covers direct losses from $3,500,000 to $10,000,000.

(2)	Plus losses in excess of catastrophe coverage.

(3)	Catastrophe coverage is limited on an annual basis to two times the per occurrence amounts. Effective July 1, 2016, the duration of a catastrophe occurrence from windstorm, hail, tornado, hurricane and cyclone was extended to 168 consecutive hours from 120 consecutive hours.

(4)	Effective July 1, 2018, the top $50,000,000 layer of catastrophe reinsurance coverage has a two-year term expiring on June 30, 2020.

(5)	Effective July 1, 2016, reinstatement premium protection for $20,000,000 of catastrophe coverage in excess of $5,000,000.

Effective July 1, 2017, reinstatement premium protection for $145,000,000 of catastrophe coverage in excess of $5,000,000.

Effective July 1, 2018, reinstatement premium protection for $210,000,000 of catastrophe coverage in excess of $5,000,000.

The single maximum risks per occurrence to which the Company is subject under the treaties effective July 1, 2018 are as follows:

	July 1, 2018 - June 30, 2019
Treaty	Extent of Loss	Risk Retained
Personal Lines (1)	Initial $1,000,000	$900,000
	$1,000,000 - $10,000,000	None)	(2)
	Over $10,000,000	100%

Personal Umbrella	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000
	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None
	Over $5,000,000	100%

Commercial Lines	Initial $750,000	$750,000
	$750,000 - $4,500,000	None	(3)
	Over $4,500,000	100%

Commercial Umbrella	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000
	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None
	Over $5,000,000	100%

Catastrophe (4)	Initial $5,000,000	$4,500,000
	$5,000,000 - $450,000,000	None
	Over $450,000,000	100%

(1)	Treaty for July 1, 2018 – June 30, 2019 is a two-year treaty with expiration date of June 30, 2019.

(2)	Covered by excess of loss treaties up to $3,500,000 and by facultative facility from $3,500,000 to $10,000,000.

(3)	Covered by excess of loss treaties.

(4)	Catastrophe coverage is limited on an annual basis to two times the per occurrence amounts.

The single maximum risks per occurrence to which the Company is subject under the treaty years shown below are as follows:

	July 1, 2017 - June 30, 2018		July 1, 2016 - June 30, 2017
Treaty	Range of Loss	Risk Retained	Range of Loss	Risk Retained
Personal Lines (1)	Initial $1,000,000	$800,000	Initial $833,333	$500,000
	$1,000,000 - $10,000,000	None(2)	$833,333 - $4,500,000	None(3)
	Over $10,000,000	100%	Over $4,500,000	100%

Personal Umbrella	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000
	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None
	Over $5,000,000	100%	Over $5,000,000	100%

Commercial Lines	Initial $750,000	$750,000	Initial $500,000	$500,000
	$750,000 - $4,500,000	None(3)	$500,000 - $4,500,000	None(3)
	Over $4,500,000	100%	Over $4,500,000	100%

Commercial Umbrella	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000	Initial $1,000,000	$100,000
	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None	$1,000,000 - $5,000,000	None
	Over $5,000,000	100%	Over $5,000,000	100%

Catastrophe (4)	Initial $5,000,000	$4,000,000	Initial $5,000,000	$3,000,000
	$5,000,000 - $320,000,000	None	$5,000,000 - $252,000,000	None
	Over $320,000,000	100%	Over $252,000,000	100%

(1)	Treaty for July 1, 2017 – June 30, 2018 is a two-year treaty with expiration date of June 30, 2019.

(2)	Covered by excess of loss treaties up to $3,500,000 and by facultative facility from $3,500,000 to $10,000,000.

(3)	Covered by excess of loss treaties.

(4)	Catastrophe coverage is limited on an annual basis to two times the per occurrence amounts.

The Company’s reinsurance program is structured to enable the Company to significantly grow its premium volume while maintaining regulatory capital and other financial ratios generally within or below the expected ranges used for regulatory oversight purposes. The reinsurance program also provides income as a result of ceding commissions earned pursuant to the quota share reinsurance contracts. The Company’s participation in reinsurance arrangements does not relieve the Company of its obligations to policyholders.

Ceding Commission Revenue

The Company earns ceding commission revenue under its quota share reinsurance agreements based on: (i) a fixed provisional commission rate at which provisional ceding commissions are earned, and (ii) a sliding scale of commission rates and ultimate treaty year loss ratios on the policies reinsured under each of these agreements based upon which contingent ceding commissions are earned. The sliding scale includes minimum and maximum commission rates in relation to specified ultimate loss ratios. The commission rate and contingent ceding commissions earned increases when the estimated ultimate loss ratio decreases and, conversely, the commission rate and contingent ceding commissions earned decreases when the estimated ultimate loss ratio increases.

The Company’s estimated ultimate treaty year loss ratios (the “Loss Ratio(s)”) for treaties in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2019 are attributable to contracts under the 2017/2019 Treaty for the 2018/2019 Treaty Year. The Loss Ratios for treaties in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2018 are attributable to contracts under the 2017/2019 Treaty for the 2017/2018 Treaty Year.

Treaty in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2019

Under the 2017/2019 Treaty, the Company receives an upfront fixed provisional rate that is subject to a sliding scale contingent adjustment based upon Loss Ratio. Under this arrangement, the Company earns and earned provisional ceding commissions that are subject to later adjustment dependent on changes to the estimated Loss Ratio for the 2017/2019 Treaty. The Company’s Loss Ratios for the period July 1, 2018 through March 31, 2019 attributable to the 2017/2019 Treaty were consistent with the contractual Loss Ratio at which provisional ceding commissions were earned, and therefore no contingent commission adjustment was recorded for the three months ended March 31, 2019.

Treaty in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2018

The Loss Ratios for the period July 1, 2017 through March 31, 2018 attributable to the 2017/2019 Treaty were higher than the contractual Loss Ratio at which provisional ceding commissions were earned. Accordingly, for the three months ended March 31, 2018, the Company incurred negative contingent ceding commissions as a result of the estimated Loss Ratio for the 2017/2019 Treaty, which reduced contingent ceding commissions earned.

In addition to the treaties that were in effect for the three months ended March 31, 2019 and 2018, the Loss Ratios from prior years’ treaties are subject to change as incurred losses from those periods increase or decrease, resulting in an increase or decrease in the commission rate and contingent ceding commissions earned.

Ceding commission revenue consists of the following:

	Three months ended
	March 31,
	2019			2018

Provisional ceding commissions earned	$	1,317,751		$	2,067,505
Contingent ceding commissions earned		(40,068	)		(372,347	)
	$	1,277,683		$	1,695,158

Provisional ceding commissions are settled monthly. Balances due from reinsurers for contingent ceding commissions on quota share treaties are settled annually based on the Loss Ratio of each treaty year that ends on June 30. As discussed above, the Loss Ratios from prior years’ treaties are subject to change as incurred losses from those periods develop, resulting in an increase or decrease in the commission rate and contingent ceding commissions earned. As of March 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018, net contingent ceding commissions payable to reinsurers under all treaties was approximately $1,643,000 and $1,581,000, respectively, which is recorded in reinsurance balances payable on the accompanying condensed consolidated balance sheets.