EX-99.1 2 b52226skexv99w1.htm INSIGHT NEWSLETTER exv99w1
 

MARTIN CURRIE MONTHLY INSIGHT At September 30, 2004 THE CHINA FUND, INC. (CHN) ASIAN DIRECT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

(MARTIN CURRIE HEADER)

IN BRIEF

         
Net asset value per share
  US$ 26.26  
Market price
  US$ 29.89  
Premium/(discount)
    13.82 %
Fund size
  US$ 264.8m  
                 
At September 30, 2004     US$ returns  
    China Fund NAV     MSCI Golden Dragon*  
    %     %  
One month
    4.8       2.6  
One year
    12.7       13.5  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: State Street Corporation. *Source for index data: MSCI.

MANAGER’S COMMENTARY

It has been a busy month for us in Shanghai. We met a horde of US institutional investors, many visiting for the first time to see whether they should start investing in China. Hopefully they will conclude in the affirmative. I am sure none of the visits were connected with Shanghai’s hosting of China’s first ever Formula One race. Sitting in the grandstand with ear-plugs inserted, the parallels between a Grand Prix and the Chinese economy became clear: lots of noise, objects travelling at high velocity and much confusion as to who is actually winning. The eventual winner, Burrichello, confidently predicted the emergence of future Chinese F1 champions based on the ferocity of driving on Shanghai’s roads. The latest barrage of statistics did clear the confusion a little; the markets took heart from the slowing pace of money growth (to 13.6%) and fixed asset investment (to 26.3%). CPI growth stayed at 5.3%, but this disguised some decline in the growth rate of food inflation (+13.9%), but a slight pick up in non-food inflation (+1.0%). The authorities subsequent reaction, backing away from any early rise in interest rates, indicates that the September CPI, to be announced in mid October, may dip. What inflation means in practical terms was illustrated by our recent visit to snack maker Want Want. In the first half its cost for rice increased by 62% year-on-year, sugar and palm oil by 20%, peas by 18% and potatoes and milk powder by 15%. This is part of a clear, politically-motivated transfer of wealth towards the neglected rural sector, which explains your Fund’s concentration of investments in this area.

With all the interim results now in, your Fund’s listed portfolio showed an average weighted net profit growth of 70% year-on-year in the first half on revenue growth of 42%. This contradicts the many articles appearing in the West about a China slow-down or hard landing. As Chang Siwei, vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress, succinctly commented about the administrative measures introduced earlier in the year: “We want to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of our investments. China doesn’t want to slow economic growth”. After a good recovery in late August, both the Hang Seng Index and the Taiwan Index traded sideways in September. H shares rallied as the threat of US and Chinese interest rate rises diminished. After touching a five-year low on September 13, the domestic A share market showed the sharpest rally. This was spurred by Premier Wen’s call to “accelerate implementation of the nine guidelines”, which, translated, was a message from Wen to his ministers to push ahead with capital market reform. The first result has been a veto given to minority shareholders on important votes — a significant development in a stockmarket still dominated by state-controlled enterprises.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Your Fund is 95.9% invested with holdings in 60 companies. With the Fund’s financial year-end approaching, our portfolio activity has largely been confined to booking losses to offset large realised gains taken earlier in the year. However, the fund did increase its stake in Chindex (CHDX US) (medical equipment distribution and hospital management) whose second hospital is due to open in Shanghai on October 21.

MESSAGE TO INVESTORS

As we approach the end of our financial year it seems likely that the company will pay a dividend in January, which is a result of profits taken early in the year. Dividends can be taken in cash or stock. Dividend shares will be issued at the greater of net asset value or a 5% discount to the market price. The Fund is currently trading at a 13.82% premium to net asset value.

Chris Ruffle, Martin Currie Inc

DIRECT INVESTMENT MANAGER’S COMMENTARY

We are maintaining a high level of activity in the Direct Investment portfolio. On September 20 the Fund increased its investment in teco Optronics to around US$ 0.55 million by subscribing its pro-rata share in a rights issue. Investment proceeds will be used to expand production capacity as demand grows for technologically innovative OLED displays in consumer electronics. Tomoike and the Fund’s other direct investments continue to perform well.

The slow down of the PRC economy is creating opportunities to make investments in quality companies on unusually attractive terms. Though many economic statistics suggest the PRC Government will achieve a soft landing for the economy, this has not yet been achieved. We are therefore focusing our new deal activity on companies that are relatively unaffected by the direct measures to slow the economy, or where we can invest on valuations which discount the less optimistic expectations.

KOH Kuek Chiang, Asian Direct Capital Management

 


 

FUND DETAILS

     
Market cap
  US $306.4m
Shares outstanding
  10,081,913
Exchange listed
  NYSE
Listing date
  July 10, 1992
Investment adviser
  Martin Currie Inc
Direct investment manager
  Asian Direct Capital Management

Source: State Street Corporation.

SECTOR ALLOCATION

                 
    The China     MSCI Golden  
    Fund, Inc     Dragon  
Industrials
    22.1 %     13.3 %
Consumer discretionary
    18.5 %     6.7 %
Information technology
    15.1 %     17.0 %
Materials
    9.2 %     7.5 %
Utilities
    8.3 %     8.9 %
Financials
    7.6 %     31.9 %
Consumer staples
    6.2 %     0.5 %
Healthcare
    3.2 %     0.1 %
Energy
    2.9 %     6.4 %
Telecommunications
    2.8 %     7.7 %
Other assets & liabilities
    4.1 %      
Total
    100.0 %     100.0 %

Source: State Street Corporation.

(ASSET ALLOCATION PIE CHART)

PERFORMANCE   (US$ RETURNS)
                 
    NAV     Market price  
    %     %  
One month
    4.8       3.4  
Year to date
    0.3       -26.7  
3 years (annualized)
    30.6       44.4  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation

DIRECT INVESTMENTS (4.9%)

             
Tomoike Industrial (HK) Ltd
  Industrials     2.4 %
Captive Finance
  Financials     1.2 %
Global E Business
  Information technology     1.1 %
teco Optronics
  Information technology     0.2 %

15 LARGEST LISTED INVESTMENTS (45.4%)

             
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
  Consumer staples     5.4 %
BYD
  Industrials     3.7 %
TCL International
  Consumer discretionary     3.6 %
Sohu.com
  Information technology     3.3 %
Shanda Interactive
  Consumer discretionary     2.9 %
Anhui Expressway
  Utilities     2.9 %
Comba Telecom Systems
  Telecommunications     2.8 %
Cathay Financial
  Financials     2.7 %
Shenzhen Expressway
  Utilities     2.7 %
Xinao Gas
  Utilities     2.7 %
China International Marine
  Industrials     2.7 %
China Metal Products
  Materials     2.7 %
Merry Electronics
  Consumer discretionary     2.5 %
Synnex Technologies
  Consumer discretionary     2.4 %
TPV Technology
  Industrials     2.4 %
Source: State Street Corporation
           
     
FUND PERFORMANCE (BASED ON NET ASSET VALUE)   (US$ RETURNS)
     
                                                         
    One     Three     Calendar     One     Three     Five     Since  
    month     months     year to date     year     years     years     launch  
    %
    %
    %
    %
    % pa
    % pa
    % pa
 
The China Fund, Inc.
    4.8       6.2       0.3       12.7       30.6       16.2       7.9  
MSCI Golden Dragon
    2.6       6.2       3.1       13.5       17.3       -1.0       n/a  
Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise
    8.3       8.4       -7.8       43.3       39.3       14.5       n/a  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation. Launch date July 10, 1992. Three year, five year and since launch returns are all annualized.

Source for index data: MSCI for the MSCI Golden Dragon and Copyright 2002 Bloomberg LP for the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise.

 


 

(PERFORMANCE IN PERSPECTIVE BAR CHART)

(PREMIUM-DISCOUNT LINE GRAPH)

(DIVIDEND HISTORY CHART)

 


 

THE PORTFOLIO — IN FULL   AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2004
                                         
Sector   Company (BBG ticker)   Price   Holding     Value $     % of portfolio  
Hong Kong
                                    52.0 %
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
  682 HK   HK$2.6     43,089,900       14,366,800       5.4 %
BYD
  1211 HK   HK$23.7     3,225,000       9,801,426       3.7 %
TCL International
  1070 HK   HK$2.3     32,318,000       9,635,597       3.6 %
Anhui Expressway
  995 HK   HK$3.4     17,778,000       7,694,278       2.9 %
Comba Telecom Systems
  2342 HK   HK$3.8     15,356,000       7,384,491       2.8 %
Shenzhen Expressway
  548 HK   HK$2.7     21,494,000       7,235,320       2.7 %
Xinao Gas
  2688 HK   HK$4.0     13,976,000       7,124,120       2.7 %
TPV Technology
  903 HK   HK$4.9     9,968,000       6,295,431       2.4 %
Golden Meditech
  8180 HK   HK$1.6     27,900,000       6,046,473       2.3 %
Solomon Systech
  2878 HK   HK$2.0     20,698,000       5,374,828       2.0 %
Weichai Power
  2338 HK   HK$15.8     2,536,000       5,138,277       1.9 %
Fountain Set
  420 HK   HK$5.9     6,714,000       5,036,727       1.9 %
Sinotrans
  598 HK   HK$2.7     12,835,000       4,443,967       1.7 %
Yanzhou Coal Mining
  1171 HK   HK$10.1     3,146,000       4,074,659       1.5 %
China Shipping Container Lines
  2866 HK   HK$3.4     9,221,000       3,961,266       1.5 %
Huaneng Power
  902 HK   HK$6.3     4,494,000       3,630,654       1.4 %
China Fire Safety
  8201 HK   HK$0.5     50,380,000       3,197,971       1.2 %
Weiqiao Textile
  2698 HK   HK$12.7     1,854,500       3,020,242       1.1 %
Proview International
  334 HK   HK$1.6     13,644,000       2,799,451       1.1 %
Natural Beauty Bio-Technology
  157 HK   HK$0.6     32,780,000       2,354,009       0.9 %
China Rare Earth
  769 HK   HK$1.2     15,254,000       2,347,341       0.9 %
Fujian Zijin Mining
  2899 HK   HK$2.6     7,000,000       2,333,902       0.9 %
Beiren Printing Machinery
  187 HK   HK$2.5     7,000,000       2,266,578       0.8 %
Ocean Grand Chemicals
  2882 HK   HK$1.0     17,379,000       2,228,620       0.9 %
Nanjing Dahe Outdoor Media
  8243 HK   HK$0.4     37,500,000       2,163,989       0.8 %
Sino Golf
  361 HK   HK$1.4     11,835,000       2,139,925       0.8 %
Asia Aluminium
  930 HK   HK$0.9     18,000,000       1,962,016       0.7 %
Asia Zirconium
  395 HK   HK$1.1     13,196,000       1,861,428       0.7 %
TCL Communication
  2618 HK   HK$1.1     8,783,200       1,238,958       0.5 %
Arcontech
  8097 HK   HK$0.2     18,386,000       407,891       0.2 %
Hong Kong.com
  8006 HK   HK$0.5     1,566,000       100,409       0.1 %
Taiwan
                                    29.7 %
Cathay Financial
  2882 TT   NT$64.0     3,862,000       7,273,926       2.7 %
China Metal Products
  1532 TT   NT$37.9     6,328,714       7,058,807       2.7 %
Merry Electronics
  2439 TT   NT$73.5     3,012,016       6,515,102       2.5 %
Synnex Technologies
  2347 TT   NT$48.5     4,465,604       6,373,802       2.4 %
Taiwan Green Point
  3007 TT   NT$97.0     2,155,749       6,153,845       2.3 %
Fubon Financial
  2881 TT   NT$31.2     5,453,952       5,007,749       1.9 %
Polaris Securities
  2854 TT   NT$17.1     9,407,587       4,734,248       1.8 %
Cheng Shin Rubber
  2105 TT   NT$41.6     3,305,974       4,047,337       1.5 %
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise
  9939 TT   NT$29.6     4,387,403       3,821,870       1.4 %
Chicony Electronics
  2385 TT   NT$41.0     3,001,152       3,621,166       1.4 %
Radiant Opto-Electronics
  6176 TT   NT$64.5     1,890,000       3,587,552       1.4 %
Asia Optical
  3019 TT   NT$164.0     686,937       3,315,411       1.2 %
Tripod Technology
  3044 TT   NT$39.0     2,503,413       2,873,252       1.1 %
Wintek
  2384 TT   NT$38.6     2,421,104       2,750,283       1.0 %
Data Systems Consulting
  2447 TT   NT$21.9     4,237,987       2,731,369       1.0 %
Taiwan FamilyMart
  5903 TT   NT$51.0     1,567,231       2,352,230       0.9 %
Vanguard International Semiconductor
  5347 TT   NT$20.0     3,121,800       1,836,515       0.7 %
Yieh United Steel
  9957 TT   NT$15.7     3,500,000       1,615,068       0.6 %
ET Internet Technology
  2614 TT   NT$17.5     2,877,000       1,481,680       0.6 %
Soft-World International
  5478 TT   NT$51.5     933,457       1,414,745       0.6 %
Singapore
                                    0.2 %
Autron
  AAT SP   SGD0.3     2,795,000       431,468       0.2 %
B shares
                                    2.7 %
China International Marine
  200039 CH   HK$14.1     3,908,395       7,086,945       2.7 %
New York
                                    6.4 %
Sohu.com
  Sohu US   US$16.6     526,286       8,752,136       3.3 %
Shanda Interactive
  SNDA US   US$24.0     324,300       7,783,200       2.9 %
Chindex International
  CHDX US   US$9.0     69,987       629,883       0.2 %
Direct
                                    4.9 %
Tomoike Industrial
                    825,000       6,332,614       2.4 %
Captive Finance
                    2,000,000       3,045,000       1.2 %
Global E Business
                    40,000       3,000,731       1.1 %
teco Optronics
                    1,861,710       547,884       0.2 %
Other assets & liabilities
                                    4.1 %

 


 

OBJECTIVE

The investment objective of the Fund is to achieve long term capital appreciation through investment in companies and other entities with significant assets, investments, production activities, trading or other business interests in China or which derive a significant part of their revenue from China.

The Board of Directors of the Fund has adopted an operating policy of the Fund, effective June 30, 2001, that the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in China companies. For this purpose, “China companies” are (i) companies for which the principal securities trading market is in China; (ii) companies for which the principal securities trading market is outside of China or in companies organised outside of China, that in both cases derive at least 50% of their revenues from goods or services sold or produced, or have a least 50% of their assets in China; and (iii) companies organized in China. Under the policy, China will mean the People’s Republic of China, including Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Fund will provide its stockholders with at least 60 days’ prior notice of any change to the policy described above.

The fundamental policy, which applies to not less than 65% of the Fund’s assets as set out in the Fund’s prospectus dated July 10, 1992, remains in place. The fundamental policy is the same as the operating policy set out above, except that China only includes the People’s Republic of China.

CONTACTS

The China Fund, Inc.
c/o State Street Bank and Trust Company
225 Franklin Street
Boston, MA 02110
Tel: (1) 888 CHN-CALL (246 2255)
www.chinafundinc.com

Important information: This newsletter is issued and approved by Martin Currie Inc (MC Inc), as investment adviser. MC Inc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and incorporated under limited liability in New York, USA. Registered in Scotland (No BR2575), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES. Information herein is believed to be reliable but has not been verified by MC Inc. MC Inc makes no representation or warranty and does not accept any responsibility in relation to such information or for opinion or conclusion which the reader may draw from the newsletter.

China Fund Inc (the fund) is classified as a ‘non-diversified’ investment company under the US Investment Company Act of 1940. It meets the criteria of a closed- ended US mutual fund and its shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. MC Inc has been appointed investment adviser to the listed equity portfolio of the fund. Asian Direct Capital Management is the direct investment manager to the fund.

This newsletter does not constitute an offer of shares. MC Inc, its ultimate and intermediate holding companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, clients, directors or staff may, at any time, have a position in the market referred to herein, and may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any other financial instruments in such markets. The information or opinion expressed in this newsletter should not be construed to be a recommendation to buy or sell the securities, commodities, currencies or financial instruments referred to herein.

The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased.

It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed here were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

Investors are advised that they will not generally benefit from the rules and regulations of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and the FSA for the protection of investors, nor benefit from the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme, nor have access to the Financial Services Ombudsman in the event of a dispute. Investors will also have no rights of cancellation under the FSA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook of the United Kingdom.

Please remember that past performance is not a guide to future returns. Markets and currency movements can cause the value of the shares and the income from them to fluctuate and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your shares.