EX-99.1 2 b52506djexv99w1.htm INSIGHT NEWSLETTER exv99w1
 

         

(MARTIN CURRIE LOGO)

IN BRIEF

         
Net asset value per share
  US$ 26.27  
Market price
  US$ 29.15  
Pemium/(discount)
    10.96 %
Fund size
  US$ 264.9 m
     
At October 29, 2004
  US$ returns
                 
    China Fund NAV   MSCI Golden Dragon*
    %   %
One month
    0.0       -0.9  
One year
    2.1       4.9  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation. *Source for index data: MSCI.

MANAGER’S COMMENTARY

After their brief rally in September, Chinese markets retreated in October. The MSCI Golden Dragon fell by 0.9%.Published statistics showed GDP growth remaining strong, if marginally slower than in the second quarter (9.1% versus 9.6%), and consumer inflation moderating slightly (5.3% year-on-year in September compared to 5.4% in August). But having avoided action while inflation was rising, the government chose the moment when it seems to have peaked to raise interest rates (+27 basis points on one-year loans and deposits, to 5.58% and 2.25% respectively). The main target seems to be some overexcitement in parts of the property market, which the government itself helped spur when it stopped land auctions earlier this year. This rise has raised fears that it will be the first of many. But as this it is the first rise in nine years, it seems likely that the government will take a few months at least to assess the impact. Also, food prices now seem to be falling and, given their weighting in the consumer price index, this trend is likely to prevail over rising energy costs. There were additionally a couple of disappointing Q3 results from commodity stocks (e.g. Anhui Conch Cement and Ma’anshan Steel), squeezed by rising costs and increasing supply. This undermined confidence in the sector which had led the rally.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Your fund is 94.4% invested with holdings in 58 companies, of which four are unlisted.

Your fund continues to focus on domestically-orientated consumer stocks. A retreat in commodity prices should ease margin pressure for a number of these companies. Chinese property stocks have suffered from the rate rise, but given that real interest rates remain negative, and the lack of attractive alternative investments, property is likely to return to favour. Having made one move on interest rates, the next seems likely to be on the currency.

One threat to prices comes from the heavy promised supply of new equity in Hong Kong. There is certainly demand for attractively priced IPOs (your fund participated in the well-received China Power IPO). But mega deals tend to drag down valuations in the corresponding sectors before pricing of the deal. This has happened for telecoms (Netcom) and seems likely to apply to airlines (Air China) and banks (Minsheng Bank, China Construction Bank etc.) In the case of the oversold telecoms, we are taking advantage of this by subscribing to Netcom. We will finance these deals, and the forthcoming dividend, by taking profits on internet and textile names.

After a long period of underperformance, we expect Taiwan’s market to rally ahead of the MSCI re-weighting and December election.

MESSAGE TO INVESTORS

As we approach the end of our financial year it seems likely that the company will pay a dividend in January, which is a result of profits taken early in the year. Dividends can be taken in cash or stock. Dividend shares will be issued at the greater of net asset value or a 5% discount to the market price. The Fund is currently trading at a 10.96% premium to net asset value.

Chris Ruffle, Martin Currie Inc

DIRECT INVESTMENT MANAGER’S COMMENTARY

The central government continues to implement measures to slow the economy and on October 28 made the first interest rate rise for nine years. This is an important and desirable shift from the administrative measures used to date. As in 1993-5 this rise is likely to be the first of a number of small adjustments, which will have a substantial cumulative effect and reposition the economy on a more stable track for future growth.

These changes, coupled with rising inflation in raw material prices, are leading to a margin squeeze which is impacting the profitability of some companies. All the companies in the Direct Investment portfolio are in sectors that are less adversely affected by these changes. Liquidity in the PRC continues to tighten and this is creating opportunities to invest in high quality companies on unusually attractive terms. We are focusing our new deal activity on companies where we can secure both good deal terms and robust entry valuations.

One of the direct investment portfolio companies, Tomoike Industrial (HK) Limited, is undergoing a pre-listing restructuring and has lodged a preliminary prospectus with the Monetary Authority of Singapore with a view for an IPO on the Singapore Stock Exchange under the name of CDW Holding Limited. A successful IPO could lead to an increase in the carrying value of the investment. The preliminary prospectus can be viewed at the website of the Monetary Authority of Singapore: http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf

KOH Kuek Chiang, Asian Direct Capital Management

 


 

FUND DETAILS

         
Market cap
  US$305.7m
Shares outstanding
  10,081,913
Exchange listed
  NYSE
Listing date
  July 10, 1992
Investment adviser
  Martin Currie Inc
Direct investment manager
  Asian Direct Capital Management

     

Source: State Street Corporation.

ASSET ALLOCATION

(ASSET ALLOCATION PIE CHART)

         
Hong Kong
    51.2 %
Taiwan
    28.2 %
B Shares
    2.8 %
New York
    7.3 %
Direct
    4.9 %
Other assets & liabilities
    5.6 %

Source: State Street Corporation.

SECTOR ALLOCATION

                 
    The China   MSCI Golden
    Fund, Inc   Dragon
Industrials
    21.3 %     13.2 %
Consumer discretionary
    17.7 %     6.8 %
Information technology
    14.5 %     16.9 %
Materials
    9.1 %     6.9 %
Utilities
    9.1 %     9.4 %
Financials
    7.7 %     32.4 %
Consumer staples
    7.2 %     0.5 %
Healthcare
    3.4 %     0.1 %
Telecommunications
    2.7 %     7.6 %
Energy
    1.7 %     6.2 %
Other assets & liabilities
    5.6 %      
Total
    100.0 %     100.0 %

Source: State Street Corporation.

     
PERFORMANCE
  (US$ RETURNS)
                 
    NAV   Market price
    %   %
One month
    0.0       -2.5  
Year to date
    0.3       -28.5  
3 years (annualized)
    28.8       42.8  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation

DIRECT INVESTMENTS (4.9%)

             
Tomoike Industrial (HK) Ltd
  Industrials     2.4 %
Global E Business
  Information technology     1.2 %
Captive Finance
  Financials     1.1 %
teco Optronics
  Information technology     0.2 %

15 LARGEST LISTED INVESTMENTS (46.9%)

             
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
  Consumer staples     5.6 %
Shanda Interactive
  Consumer discretionary     3.8 %
BYD
  Industrials     3.4 %
TCL International
  Consumer discretionary     3.3 %
Sohu.com
  Information technology     3.3 %
Anhui Expressway
  Utilities     3.2 %
Xinao Gas
  Utilities     3.0 %
Shenzhen Expressway
  Utilities     2.9 %
Cathay Financial
  Financials     2.8 %
China International Marine
  Industrials     2.8 %
Comba Telecom Systems
  Telecommunications     2.7 %
China Metal Products
  Materials     2.6 %
Merry Electronics
  Consumer discretionary     2.6 %
Golden Meditech
  Energy     2.5 %
Synnex Technologies
  Consumer discretionary     2.4 %

Source: State Street Corporation

     
FUND PERFORMANCE (BASED ON NET ASSET VALUE)
  (US$ RETURNS)
                                                         
    One   Three   Calendar   One   Three   Five   Since
    month   months   year to date   year   years   years   launch
    %   %   %   %   % pa   % pa   % pa
The China Fund, Inc.
    0.0       7.1       0.3       2.1       28.8       17.5       7.9  
MSCI Golden Dragon
    -0.9       7.3       2.2       4.9       14.8       -2.0       n/a  
Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise
    -2.9       4.1       -10.5       16.3       34.3       15.8       n/a  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation. Launch date July 10, 1992. Three year, five year and since launch returns are all annualized.

Source for index data: MSCI for the MSCI Golden Dragon and Copyright 2002 Bloomberg LP for the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise.

 


 

PERFORMANCE IN PERSPECTIVE

(PERFORMANCE IN PERSPECTIVE LINE GRAPH)

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: Martin Currie Inc as of October 31, 2004.

THE CHINA FUND INC. PREMIUM/DISCOUNT

(THE CHINA FUND INC. PREMIUM LINE GRAPH)

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: Martin Currie Inc as of October 31, 2004.

DIVIDEND HISTORY CHART

(DIVIDEND HISTORY BAR CHART)

                                                                                         
Total
    0.91       0.61       0.09       0.08       0.50       0.08       0.11       0.00       0.13       0.21       1.78  
Income
    0.09       0.01       0.09       0.08       0.50       0.08       0.11       0.00       0.13       0.06       0.07  
Long term capital
    0.04       0.24       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.67  
Short term capital
    0.79       0.36       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.15       1.04  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Source: State Street Corporation.

 


 

THE PORTFOLIO — IN FULL   AT OCTOBER 31, 2004
                                         
Sector   Company (BBG ticker)   Price   Holding   Value $   % of portfolio
Hong Kong
                                    51.2 %
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
    682 HK     HK$2.7     43,089,900       14,808,953       5.6 %
BYD
    1211 HK     HK$21.9     3,225,000       9,074,003       3.4 %
TCL International
    1070 HK     HK$2.1     32,318,000       8,823,248       3.3 %
Anhui Expressway
    995 HK     HK$3.8     17,778,000       8,622,336       3.2 %
Xinao Gas
    2688 HK     HK$4.4     13,976,000       7,810,831       3.0 %
Shenzhen Expressway
    548 HK     HK$2.8     21,494,000       7,663,114       2.9 %
Comba Telecom Systems
    2342 HK     HK$3.6     15,356,000       7,003,764       2.7 %
Golden Meditech
    8180 HK     HK$1.9     27,900,000       6,738,871       2.5 %
TPV Technology
    903 HK     HK$4.7     9,968,000       6,019,092       2.3 %
Weichai Power
    2338 HK     HK$16.1     2,536,000       5,229,370       2.0 %
Solomon Systech
    2878 HK     HK$2.0     20,698,000       5,212,061       2.0 %
Fountain Set
    420 HK     HK$5.9     6,714,000       5,046,175       1.9 %
Sinotrans
    598 HK     HK$2.5     12,835,000       4,163,728       1.6 %
Yanzhou Coal Mining
    1171 HK     HK$10.3     3,146,000       4,163,140       1.6 %
China Shipping Container Lines
    2866 HK     HK$3.3     9,221,000       3,879,845       1.5 %
China Fire Safety
    8201 HK     HK$0.6     50,380,000       3,689,420       1.4 %
Fujian Zijin Mining
    2899 HK     HK$3.0     7,400,000       2,875,956       1.1 %
Weiqiao Textile
    2698 HK     HK$11.4     1,854,500       2,692,343       1.0 %
Proview International
    334 HK     HK$1.4     13,644,000       2,524,232       0.9 %
Natural Beauty Bio-Technology
    157 HK     HK$0.6     32,780,000       2,316,310       0.9 %
Beiren Printing Machinery
    187 HK     HK$2.5     7,000,000       2,225,862       0.8 %
Li Ning
    2331 HK     HK3.1     5,600,000       2,212,372       0.8 %
China Rare Earth
    769 HK     HK$1.1     15,254,000       2,136,168       0.8 %
Nanjing Dahe Outdoor Media
    8243 HK     HK$0.4     37,500,000       2,119,869       0.8 %
Ocean Grand Chemicals
    2882 HK     HK$0.9     17,379,000       2,098,832       0.8 %
Asia Aluminium
    930 HK     HK$0.9     18,000,000       2,035,074       0.8 %
Sino Golf
    361 HK     HK$1.2     11,835,000       1,885,450       0.7 %
Asia Zirconium
    395 HK     HK$1.0     13,196,000       1,661,474       0.6 %
China Power International
    2380 HK     HK$3.1     1,029,000       399,913       0.2 %
Arcontech
    8097 HK     HK$0.2     18,386,000       408,657       0.1 %
Taiwan
                                    28.2 %
Cathay Financial
    2882 TT     NT$64.0     3,862,000       7,399,132       2.8 %
China Metal Products
    1532 TT     NT$36.3     6,328,714       6,877,184       2.6 %
Merry Electronics
    2439 TT     NT$75.5     3,012,016       6,807,580       2.6 %
Synnex Technologies
    2347 TT     NT$47.9     4,465,604       6,403,306       2.4 %
Taiwan Green Point
    3007 TT     NT$92.0     2,155,749       5,937,102       2.2 %
Fubon Financial
    2881 TT     NT$31.5     5,453,952       5,142,927       2.0 %
Polaris Securities
    2854 TT     NT$17.1     9,407,587       4,815,738       1.8 %
Cheng Shin Rubber
    2105 TT     NT$39.7     3,305,974       3,928,968       1.5 %
Radiant Opto-Electronics
    6176 TT     NT$59.5     1,890,000       3,366,412       1.3 %
Asia Optical
    3019 TT     NT$159.0     686,937       3,269,660       1.2 %
Chicony Electronics
    2385 TT     NT$35.0     3,001,152       3,144,449       1.2 %
Tripod Technology
    3044 TT     NT$39.5     2,503,413       2,960,180       1.1 %
Wintek
    2384 TT     NT$37.0     2,421,104       2,681,660       1.1 %
Data Systems Consulting
    2447 TT     NT$20.6     4,237,987       2,613,457       1.0 %
Taiwan FamilyMart
    5903 TT     NT$52.0     1,567,231       2,439,635       0.9 %
Vanguard International Semiconductor
    5347 TT     NT$15.8     3,122,163       1,476,730       0.5 %
Yieh United Steel
    9957 TT     NT$13.7     3,500,000       1,435,414       0.5 %
Soft-World International
    5478 TT     NT$51.0     933,457       1,425,125       0.5 %
ET Internet Technology
    2614 TT     NT$16.1     2,877,000       1,386,610       0.5 %
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise
    9939 TT     NT$23.9     1,843,403       1,318,884       0.5 %
B shares
                                    2.8 %
China International Marine
    200039 CH     HK$14.7     3,908,395       7,376,415       2.8 %
New York
                                    7.3 %
Shanda Interactive
    SNDA US     US$30.3     324,300       9,855,153       3.8 %
Sohu.com
    Sohu US     US$16.8     526,286       8,815,291       3.3 %
Chindex International
    CHDX US     US$7.9     69,987       554,997       0.2 %
Direct
                                    4.9 %
Tomoike Industrial
                    825,000       6,344,492       2.4 %
Global E Business
                    40,000       3,040,462       1.2 %
Captive Finance
                    2,000,000       3,045,000       1.1 %
teco Optronics
                    1,861,710       561,406       0.2 %
Other assets & liabilities
                                    5.6 %

 


 

OBJECTIVE

The investment objective of the Fund is to achieve long term capital appreciation through investment in companies and other entities with significant assets, investments, production activities, trading or other business interests in China or which derive a significant part of their revenue from China.

The Board of Directors of the Fund has adopted an operating policy of the Fund, effective June 30, 2001, that the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in China companies. For this purpose, “China companies” are (i) companies for which the principal securities trading market is in China; (ii) companies for which the principal securities trading market is outside of China or in companies organised outside of China, that in both cases derive at least 50% of their revenues from goods or services sold or produced, or have a least 50% of their assets in China; and (iii) companies organized in China. Under the policy, China will mean the People’s Republic of China, including Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Fund will provide its stockholders with at least 60 days’ prior notice of any change to the policy described above.

The fundamental policy, which applies to not less than 65% of the Fund’s assets as set out in the Fund’s prospectus dated July 10, 1992, remains in place. The fundamental policy is the same as the operating policy set out above, except that China only includes the People’s Republic of China.

CONTACTS

The China Fund, Inc.
c/o State Street Bank and Trust Company
225 Franklin Street
Boston, MA 02110
Tel: (1) 888 CHN-CALL (246 2255)
www.chinafundinc.com

Important information: This newsletter is issued and approved by Martin Currie Inc (MC Inc), as investment adviser. MC Inc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and incorporated under limited liability in New York, USA. Registered in Scotland (No BR2575), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES. Information herein is believed to be reliable but has not been verified by MC Inc. MC Inc makes no representation or warranty and does not accept any responsibility in relation to such information or for opinion or conclusion which the reader may draw from the newsletter.

China Fund Inc (the fund) is classified as a ‘non-diversified’ investment company under the US Investment Company Act of 1940. It meets the criteria of a closedended US mutual fund and its shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. MC Inc has been appointed investment adviser to the listed equity portfolio of the fund. Asian Direct Capital Management is the direct investment manager to the fund.

This newsletter does not constitute an offer of shares. MC Inc, its ultimate and intermediate holding companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, clients, directors or staff may, at any time, have a position in the market referred to herein, and may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any other financial instruments in such markets. The information or opinion expressed in this newsletter should not be construed to be a recommendation to buy or sell the securities, commodities, currencies or financial instruments referred to herein.

The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased.

It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed here were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

Investors are advised that they will not generally benefit from the rules and regulations of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and the FSA for the protection of investors, nor benefit from the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme, nor have access to the Financial Services Ombudsman in the event of a dispute. Investors will also have no rights of cancellation under the FSA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook of the United Kingdom.

Please remember that past performance is not a guide to future returns. Markets and currency movements can cause the value of the shares and the income from them to fluctuate and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your shares.