EX-99.1 2 b53230cfexv99w1.htm INSIGHT NEWSLETTER exv99w1
 

(GRAPHICS)

IN BRIEF


                             
Net asset value per share
  US$ 24.23     At December 31, 2004           US$ returns  
Market price
  US$ 32.72         China Fund NAV   MSCI Golden Dragon*
Premium/(discount)
    35.04 %         %       %  
Fund size
  US$ 244.3m     One month     2.4       3.1  
          One year     6.4       14.3  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: State Street Corporation.
*Source for index data: MSCI.

MANAGER’S COMMENTARY


2004 in China was a year of three halves. At the start of the year, we saw some carry over of the exuberance seen in 2003, focused on China’s growth prospects. From March, when the government started to crackdown on over-investment in certain sectors, investors started to worry about rising interest rates and a ‘hard landing’ for China. In the third half they realised that, perhaps, rates were not going to go up by so much, and sentiment started to recover. The November CPI increase of just 2.8%, down from 4.3% in October, lay to rest expectations for aggressive interest rate rises. Of the various Chinese markets, the Hang Seng was the best performer (+13.0%) helped by a strong reflation rally in Hong Kong property and banks during the summer. The ‘H’ share index fell by 5.7% as investors started to anticipate the end of the current commodity cycle. Taiwan managed to rally at the year-end to close flat. A good showing by the KMT in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan election started to put right some of the damage done by Chen Shui-bian’s controversial presidential victory in May.

Among all this turmoil, we managed to eek out a modest annual gain of 6.4%. Our bias to entrepreneurial growth stocks in China meant that we did not benefit from the rally in Hong Kong property, and our puritan streak meant that we missed out on the craze in Macau gambling stocks. As Mark Twain so rightly said, “The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with regard to the future.” Bearing this in mind, we still believe the outlook for 2005 to be good. We expect China’s economy to continue to grow at a fair pace, although perhaps slightly slower than in the past two years. As inflation remains restrained, only a small increase in interest rates should be required. The fund’s bias to domestic consumption stocks means that it should benefit from currency appreciation. Recent statistical releases are starting to support our overweight position in ‘rural’ stocks; in the first nine months of 2004, rural consumption growth (+16% year-on-year, up from 6% in 2003) outpaced that in the cities (+11.6%, up from 11% in 2003). After margin pressure in 2004, the portfolio’s manufacturers now seem more comfortable about passing on some of their higher raw material costs, and should benefit as we see easing in the price of some commodities.

The main risk to this rosy scenario is equity supply - the Chinese government has an enormous amount of shares it will sell to investors at any given opportunity. After the large number of IPOs and placements in December, we should at least have temporary relief, for technical reasons, until after Chinese New Year. A slow-down in the US economy (because of rising rates) or the European economy (rising currency) would, of course, affect the Chinese export sector, so we are underweight here. There are some predictable crises. There will be chaos in the textile industry in January/February with the removal of import quotas. Following recent deregulation, there will be rapid expansion of the retail sector (good for the consumer and renters of retail space, not so good for existing retailers). And there will be, of course, the sprinkling of random scandals which are usual in fast developing economies transforming from one form of ownership to another. We will, of course, work our hardest to avoid these, this being, as Mark Twain probably said, more than half the battle.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY


Your fund is currently 105.6% invested with holdings in 58 stocks, of which four are unlisted.

During December we concentrated on realising cash for the annual dividend payment by taking profits from China Power International, ZTE and Air China. We also reduced our holding in Shanda as the share price has doubled but we still like it as the outlook for its online games still looks good. We realised some losses on the disappointing keyboard maker Chicony. The only addition is Asia Aluminium due to its margin recovering.

DIRECT INVESTMENT MANAGER’S COMMENTARY


The tightened cycle continues in China and is expected to take some time to complete, but it should provide a more stable basis for rapid growth in the future. The tightened credit environment is creating an attractive opportunity to make new high quality direct investments for the fund.

While we continue to expand the deal pipeline to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the tightened liquidity situation, we continue to focus on those that could be beneficiaries of a more sustainable economy in the long run.

KOH Kuek Chiang, Asian Direct Capital Management

 


 

FUND DETAILS


         
Market cap
  US$ 331.4m
Shares outstanding
  10,081,913
Exchange listed
  NYSE
Listing date
  July 10, 1992
Investment adviser
  Martin Currie Inc
Direct investment manager
  Asian Direct Capital Management
 
   
Source: State Street Corporation.
       

ASSET ALLOCATION


(GRAPHICS)

     
• Hong Kong 61.4 %
• Taiwan 35.7 %
• B Shares 2.9 %
• New York 0.3 %
• Direct 5.3 %
Other assets & liabilities -5.6 %

Source: State Street Corporation.

SECTOR ALLOCATION


                 
 
  The China   MSCI Golden
 
  Fund, Inc   Dragon
Industrials
    25.7 %     12.7 %
Consumer discretionary
    16.7 %     6.6 %
Information technology
    12.6 %     20.8 %
Materials
    10.5 %     7.5 %
Utilities
    10.4 %     7.6 %
Consumer staples
    9.5 %     0.6 %
Financials
    8.9 %     31.3 %
Healthcare
    4.8 %     0.1 %
Telecommunications
    4.6 %     7.6 %
Energy
    1.9 %     5.2 %
Other assets & liabilities
    -5.6 %      
Total
    100.0 %     100.0 %

Source: State Street Corporation.

     
PERFORMANCE
  (US$ RETURNS)

                 
 
  NAV   Market price
 
    %       %  
One month
    2.4       12.0  
Year to date
    6.4       -7.7  
3 years (annualized)
    25.1       47.6  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: State Street Corporation

DIRECT INVESTMENTS (5.3%)


             
Tomoike Industrial (HK) Ltd
  Industrials     2.6 %
Global e Business
  Information technology     1.3 %
Captive Finance
  Financials     1.2 %
teco Optronics
  Information technology     0.2 %

15 LARGEST LISTED INVESTMENTS (50.2%)


             
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
  Consumer staples     6.5 %
Anhui Expressway
  Utilities     3.8 %
BYD
  Industrials     3.5 %
TCL International
  Consumer discretionary     3.4 %
Shenzhen Expressway
  Utilities     3.3 %
Xinao Gas
  Utilities     3.3 %
Comba Telecom Systems
  Telecommunications     3.3 %
Cathay Financial
  Financials     3.2 %
Synnex Technologies
  Consumer discretionary     3.1 %
Merry Electronics
  Consumer discretionary     2.9 %
China International Marine
  Industrials     2.9 %
Weichai Power
  Consumer discretionary     2.9 %
Golden Meditech
  Healthcare     2.9 %
Taiwan Green Point
  Information technology     2.8 %
TPV Technology
  Industrials     2.4 %
 
Source: State Street Corporation
           
     
FUND PERFORMANCE (BASED ON NET ASSET VALUE)
  (US$ RETURNS)

                                                         
    One     Three     Calendar     One     Three     Five     Since  
    month     months     year to date     year     years     years     launch  
    %     %     %     %     % pa     % pa     % pa  
The China Fund, Inc.
    2.4       6.1       6.4       6.4       25.1       16.0       8.3  
MSCI Golden Dragon
    3.1       10.9       14.3       14.3       10.9       -3.1       n/a  
Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise
    -4.5       2.3       -5.7       -5.7       39.4       19.2       n/a  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: State Street Corporation. Launch date July 10, 1992. Three year, five year and since launch returns are all annualized.
Source for index data: MSCI for the MSCI Golden Dragon and Copyright 2002 Bloomberg LP for the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise.

 


 

PERFORMANCE IN PERSPECTIVE


(LINE GRAPH)

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: Martin Currie Inc as of December 31, 2004.

THE CHINA FUND INC. PREMIUM/DISCOUNT


(LINE GRAPH)

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: Martin Currie Inc as of December 31, 2004.

DIVIDEND HISTORY CHART


(BAR GRAPH)

                                                                                                 
Total
    0.91       0.61       0.09       0.08       0.50       0.08       0.11       0.00       0.13       0.21       1.78       3.57  
Income
    0.09       0.01       0.09       0.08       0.50       0.08       0.11       0.00       0.13       0.06       0.07       0.20  
Long term capital
    0.04       0.24       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.67       3.27  
Short term capital
    0.79       0.36       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00       0.15       1.04       0.10  

Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
Source: State Street Corporation.

 


 

     
THE PORTFOLIO - IN FULL
  AT DECEMBER 31, 2004

                                         
Sector Company (BBG ticker)   Price   Holding   Value $   % of portfolio  
 
                                       
Hong Kong
                                    61.4 %
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
  682 HK   HK$2.9     43,089,900       15,938,074       6.5 %
Anhui Expressway
  995 HK   HK$4.0     17,778,000       9,206,007       3.8 %
BYD
  1211 HK   HK$20.6     3,225,000       8,526,367       3.5 %
TCL International
  1070 HK   HK$2.0     32,318,000       8,315,665       3.4 %
Shenzhen Expressway
  548 HK   HK$3.0     21,494,000       8,157,588       3.3 %
Xinao Gas
  2688 HK   HK$4.5     13,976,000       8,091,293       3.3 %
Comba Telecom Systems
  2342 HK   HK$3.5     18,018,000       7,997,388       3.3 %
Weichai Power
  2338 HK   HK$21.6     2,536,000       7,047,345       2.9 %
Golden Meditech
  8180 HK   HK$2.0     27,900,000       7,035,303       2.9 %
TPV Technology
  903 HK   HK$4.7     9,968,000       5,963,256       2.4 %
Li Ning
  2331 HK   HK3.9     11,400,000       5,719,947       2.3 %
Fujian Zijin Mining
  2899 HK   HK$3.5     12,400,000       5,623,456       2.3 %
Solomon Systech
  2878 HK   HK$1.9     20,698,000       5,139,350       2.1 %
Yanzhou Coal Mining
  1171 HK   HK$11.1     3,146,000       4,492,667       1.9 %
Fountain Set
  420 HK   HK$5.1     6,714,000       4,362,096       1.8 %
China Fire Safety
  8201 HK   HK$0.6     50,380,000       3,888,946       1.6 %
Sinotrans
  598 HK   HK$2.3     12,835,000       3,756,642       1.5 %
China Shipping Container Lines
  2866 HK   HK$3.1     9,221,000       3,707,239       1.5 %
China Netcom
  906 HK   HK$10.6     2,334,000       3,167,932       1.3 %
Weiqiao Textile
  2698 HK   HK$12.3     1,854,500       2,922,708       1.2 %
Natural Beauty Bio-Technology
  157 HK   HK$0.6     32,780,000       2,530,362       1.0 %
Ocean Grand Chemicals
  2882 HK   HK$1.1     17,379,000       2,437,103       1.0 %
Asia Aluminium
  930 HK   HK$0.8     23,250,000       2,392,960       1.0 %
Beiren Printing Machinery
  187 HK   HK$2.4     7,000,000       2,138,869       0.9 %
China Rare Earth
  769 HK   HK$1.0     15,254,000       2,001,734       0.8 %
Nanjing Dahe Outdoor Media
  8243 HK   HK$0.4     37,500,000       1,712,703       0.7 %
Sino Golf
  361 HK   HK$1.1     11,835,000       1,705,331       0.7 %
Asia Zirconium
  395 HK   HK$1.0     13,196,000       1,680,738       0.7 %
Singamas Container
  716 HK   HK$4.3     3,000,000       1,645,160       0.7 %
Hengan International
  1044 HK   HK$5.1     2,000,000       1,312,268       0.5 %
China Shineway Pharmaceutical
  2877 HK   HK$4.3     1,594,000       886,946       0.4 %
Arcontech
  8097 HK   HK$0.2     18,386,000       409,219       0.2 %
 
                                       
Taiwan
                                    35.7 %
Cathay Financial
  2882 TT   NT$65.0     3,862,000       7,896,508       3.2 %
Synnex Technologies
  2347 TT   NT$46.9     5,165,604       7,620,850       3.1 %
Merry Electronics
  2439 TT   NT$76.0     3,012,016       7,200,793       2.9 %
Taiwan Green Point
  3007 TT   NT$99.0     2,155,749       6,713,405       2.8 %
Fubon Financial
  2881 TT   NT$32.5     5,453,952       5,575,761       2.3 %
EVA Airways
  2618 TT   NT$15.6     11,300,000       5,545,140       2.3 %
China Metal Products
  1532 TT   NT$38.8     4,378,714       5,344,262       2.2 %
Polaris Securities
  2854 TT   NT$17.8     9,407,587       5,267,539       2.2 %
Cheng Shin Rubber
  2105 TT   NT$40.5     3,805,974       4,848,756       2.0 %
Radiant Opto-Electronics
  6176 TT   NT$80.0     1,890,000       4,756,213       2.0 %
Tripod Technology
  3044 TT   NT$45.7     2,778,413       3,994,132       1.6 %
Asia Optical
  3019 TT   NT$177.0     686,937       3,824,720       1.6 %
ET Internet Technology
  2614 TT   NT$16.6     7,136,000       3,726,253       1.5 %
Chicony Electronics
  2385 TT   NT$32.3     2,704,152       2,747,534       1.1 %
Data Systems Consulting
  2447 TT   NT$20.0     4,237,987       2,666,239       1.1 %
Taiwan FamilyMart
  5903 TT   NT$54.0     1,567,231       2,662,173       1.1 %
Soft-World International
  5478 TT   NT$60.5     933,457       1,776,475       0.7 %
Far Eastern Department Stores
  2903 TT   NTS18.2     3,000,000       1,717,522       0.7 %
Yieh United Steel
  9957 TT   NT$15.2     3,500,000       1,651,463       0.7 %
Wintek
  2384 TT   NT$34.8     1,421,104       1,555,660       0.6 %
 
                                       
B shares
                                    2.9 %
China International Marine
  200039 CH   HK$14.3     3,908,395       7,190,465       2.9 %
 
                                       
New York
                                    0.3 %
Chindex International
  CHDX US     US$10.4     69,987       729,265       0.3 %  
 
                                       
Direct
                                    5.3 %
Tomoike Industrial
                    825,000       6,353,226       2.6 %
Global e Business
                    40,000       3,044,647       1.3 %
Captive Finance
                    2,000,000       3,045,000       1.2 %
teco Optronics
                    1,861,710       591,969       0.2 %
 
                                       
Other assets & liabilities
                                    -5.6 %

 


 

OBJECTIVE


The investment objective of the Fund is to achieve long term capital appreciation through investment in companies and other entities with significant assets, investments, production activities, trading or other business interests in China or which derive a significant part of their revenue from China.

The Board of Directors of the Fund has adopted an operating policy of the Fund, effective June 30, 2001, that the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in China companies. For this purpose, “China companies” are (i) companies for which the principal securities trading market is in China; (ii) companies for which the principal securities trading market is outside of China or in companies organised outside of China, that in both cases derive at least 50% of their revenues from goods or services sold or produced, or have a least 50% of their assets in China; and (iii) companies organized in China. Under the policy, China will mean the People’s Republic of China, including Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Fund will provide its stockholders with at least 60 days’ prior notice of any change to the policy described above.

The fundamental policy, which applies to not less than 65% of the Fund’s assets as set out in the Fund’s prospectus dated July 10, 1992, remains in place. The fundamental policy is the same as the operating policy set out above, except that China only includes the People’s Republic of China.

CONTACTS


The China Fund, Inc.
c/o State Street Bank and Trust Company
225 Franklin Street
Boston, MA 02110
Tel: (1) 888 CHN-CALL (246 2255)
www.chinafundinc.com

Important information: This newsletter is issued and approved by Martin Currie Inc (MC Inc), as investment adviser. MC Inc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and incorporated under limited liability in New York, USA. Registered in Scotland (No BR2575), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES. Information herein is believed to be reliable but has not been verified by MC Inc. MC Inc makes no representation or warranty and does not accept any responsibility in relation to such information or for opinion or conclusion which the reader may draw from the newsletter.

China Fund Inc (the fund) is classified as a ‘non-diversified’ investment company under the US Investment Company Act of 1940. It meets the criteria of a closed-ended US mutual fund and its shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. MC Inc has been appointed investment adviser to the listed equity portfolio of the fund. Asian Direct Capital Management is the direct investment manager to the fund.

This newsletter does not constitute an offer of shares. MC Inc, its ultimate and intermediate holding companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, clients, directors or staff may, at any time, have a position in the market referred to herein, and may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any other financial instruments in such markets. The information or opinion expressed in this newsletter should not be construed to be a recommendation to buy or sell the securities, commodities, currencies or financial instruments referred to herein.

The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased.

It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed here were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

Investors are advised that they will not generally benefit from the rules and regulations of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and the FSA for the protection of investors, nor benefit from the United Kingdom Financial Services Compensation Scheme, nor have access to the Financial Services Ombudsman in the event of a dispute. Investors will also have no rights of cancellation under the FSA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook of the United Kingdom.

Please remember that past performance is not a guide to future returns. Markets and currency movements can cause the value of the shares and the income from them to fluctuate and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your shares.