Veidekke expects a moderate decline in production in the Scandinavian building
construction sector in 2019 and 2020, but a modest increase in civil engineering
production. These developments are forecast to reduce pressure in the market and
improve access to construction capacity and skilled labour throughout the supply
chain.
"Production in the sector increased by more than 40 per cent over the past four
years, and, in our opinion, the market can now accommodate a moderate decline",
says Kristoffer Eide Hoen Director of Analysis in Veidekke. Total production in
building construction and civil engineering sector is expected to fall by 3 per
cent in 2019 before stabilising in 2020.
The Scandinavian residential market is now less heated than a few years ago:
"Over the past few years, the Norwegian, Swedish and Danish authorities have all
introduced credit restrictions to stem rising house prices and debt levels.
Although the timing and social profile of some of the measures are debatable,
the effects on the second-hand housing market have thus far been a more stable
price development, relatively high transaction levels and increased supply,"
says Eide Hoen.
Sales of new residential units increased somewhat last autumn but remain
significantly lower than in the peak years of 2016 and 2017.
"Competition to attract buyers for new units has hardened considerably. This is
as a result of stricter credit conditions and of new projects still exceeding
demand to some degree," says Eide Hoen. "However, the news is not all bad for
property developers. In capital city regions developers have struggled as much
with reduced margins on purchases as with lower willingness to pay among buyers.
We anticipate that reduced capacity pressure in the building construction sector
will alleviate this problem."
The number of new building starts granted in the autumn of 2018 indicates
continued high activity levels in several metropolitan regions well into 2020,
albeit with some regional variations. While the Stockholm region experience a
decline throughout 2018, production has only just started to fall in eastern
Norway and Oslo. Gothenburg and cities in western Norway are not yet showing
signs of a downturn.
Continued growth is anticipated in the civil engineering sector, particularly in
Sweden. In Norway, several major transport infrastructure projects have been
delayed or postponed. This has put progress behind schedule compared to the
targets in the national transport plan, for the first time since the early
2000s. Given indications of less generous public budgets in the years ahead,
this situation appears likely to continue.
Veidekke's full analyses relating to the Scandinavian construction and civil
engineering market are available on veidekke.com.
For further information, please contact:
Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Director of Analysis, Veidekke ASA, +47 976 75 434,
Kristoffer.Eide.Hoen@veidekke.no
For press images, see www.flickr.com/photos/veidekke
Subscribe to notices from Veidekke (http://veidekke.com/no/borsmeldinger/abonner
-pa-meldinger/)
Veidekke is one of Scandinavia's largest construction and property development
companies. The company undertakes all types of building construction and civil
engineering contracts, develops residential projects, maintains roads, and
produces asphalt and aggregates. The company is known for its involvement and
local knowledge. Its annual turnover is approximately NOK 36 billion, and half
of its 8,600 employees own shares in the company. Veidekke is listed on the Oslo
Stock Exchange and has always posted a profit since it was founded in 1936.