Strategic report
Annual Report and Financial Statements 2024
12
More importantly for us as active managers, China
still offers a unique opportunity for growth. For
example, of all companies in MSCI ACWI forecast
to grow revenues at 20% per annum for the next
three years, 40% come from China. While headline
GDP continues to slow, there are ample structural
opportunities in a variety of industries that continue
to excite us. For example, in terms of automation
and advanced manufacturing, China is already the
largest industrial robotics market in the world. Yet
robot density is only one-third of that of countries
like Korea.
Another example would be the rise of domestic
brands. In a whole host of industries, foreign brands
still dominate. But this is changing. A good example
would be cosmetics, where domestic leaders such
as Proya continue to take share from mass-market
foreign brands. A further example would be ‘little
giants’: companies with advanced expertise in
strategically important industries such as solar,
batteries or semiconductors.
Indeed, because of our ability to avoid vast swathes
of the index, our portfolio holdings delivered
double-digit earnings growth in 2023 despite
China’s economic woes. For example, ByteDance,
our largest holding at 8.4% and only unlisted
investment, reported over 35% revenue growth in
the nine months to September, driven by continued
monetisation of its vast userbase. Kweichow Moutai,
a 5.9% holding and our second largest overweight,
delivered circa 17% revenue and earnings growth
over the same period, driven by the phenomenal
strength of its domestic baijiu brand. Tencent,
another large holding within the Company’s portfolio,
delivered 10% revenue growth in the most recent
quarter and treble-digit earnings per share growth as
capital allocation continued to improve. Or CATL, a
1.8% holding in the portfolio and the world’s leading
battery manufacturer, pre-announced that it would
deliver 38-48% year-over-year revenue growth in
2023. CATL has grown its revenue and earnings by
over 10x in the last four years and trades on less
than 15x 2024 earnings. What comforts us during
these challenging times is our holdings’ continued
strong operational performance and the knowledge
that, over meaningful periods, share prices are likely
to follow fundamentals.
However, we are anything but complacent and
continue to interrogate the investment decisions
we made since Baillie Gifford won the Company’s
mandate in 2020. For example, we have added
two independent research providers to our list
of resources to bolster our ability to ascertain a
company’s alignment with the Chinese state and the
risks and opportunities of the broader geopolitical
environment. Both specialise in analysing Chinese
and US policy. We have commissioned work
from our Risk Team on our trading decisions and
have interrogated the research process, quality
and investment decisions that led to our largest
individual stock mistakes. We also continue to
challenge our historic preference for privately run
companies instead of SOEs.
At the firm level, we’d also like to highlight Baillie
Gifford’s continued support for our Chinese equities
business. While some of our competitors are closing
their Chinese operations, Baillie Gifford continues to
invest. Our Shanghai office, which opened in 2019,
has added resources yearly, with two new graduates
joining in the last two years alongside a dedicated
ESG analyst. We now have seven investment staff
working out of Shanghai. We recently established a
dedicated China team that will be responsible for our
Chinese equity funds. As such, Sophie is excited to
welcome Linda Lin, a partner at Baillie Gifford and
an investment specialist on China, as co-manager
for the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust. Linda
will replace Roderick Snell who will re-focus his
attention on Asia Pacific. Establishing the dedicated
China Team, of which Sophie is a part, and adding
Linda as a formal decision maker to our China equity
strategies, is a significant increase of resources.
Portfolio positioning and recent activity
Balancing global perspectives with local insights
and ensuring a long-term focus in our analytical
framework is critical to finding China’s best and most
innovative public and private growth companies. We
undertook two joint trips around China, one in May
2023 and one in January 2024. Linda Lin led our
most recent trip, and she was joined by managers
from our Long Term Global Growth team and our
Emerging Markets team.
Our philosophy and investment horizons afford
excellent access to company leaders. Linda was
fortunate to meet with founders and ‘C-level’
management from PDD Holdings, one of the new
purchases for the Company, along with existing
holdings Meituan, LONGi and KE Holdings. We
also met NIO, one of China’s leading electric
vehicle brands and a competitor to BYD; Kuaishou,
a competitor to ByteDance; and Luckin Coffee,
China’s version of Starbucks. More broadly, while the
atmosphere was somewhat gloomy, with negative
local sentiment and weak consumer confidence,
we found the trip uplifting at the most basic level
of what companies are doing regarding growth.
The entrepreneurial spirit that allows new companies