Ad-hoc | 5 April 2006 10:21
BP p.l.c.: Trading Statement
Ad hoc announcement transmitted by DGAP – a company of EquityStory AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
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April 5, 2006
BP First Quarter 2006 Trading Update
This trading update is aimed at providing estimates regarding revenue and
trading conditions experienced by BP in the first quarter ended March 31,
2006, and estimates of identified non-operating items expected to be
included in that quarter’s result. The first quarter margin, price,
realisation, cost, production and other data referred to below are
currently provisional, some being drawn from figures applicable to the
first month or so of the quarter. All such data are subject to change and
may differ quite considerably from the final numbers that will be reported
on April 25, 2006. In particular, data is not available at
this time that would allow an estimate of potential IFRS fair value
accounting gains or charges, or of any potential consolidation adjustment.
This trading update is produced in order to provide greater disclosure to
investors and potential investors of currently expected outcomes, and to
ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information at the
same time.
Note: Following the launch of BP Alternative Energy in November 2005 and
the sale of Innovene in December 2005, certain assets have been transferred
between segments to reflect the changed operational structure of the Group.
These transfers are effective from 1 January 2006. Financial information
for 2005 and 2004 has been restated to reflect these transfers. Full
details are available at www.bp.com/investors
Exploration and Production
Marker Prices
1Q’05 2Q’05 3Q’05 4Q’05 1Q’06
Brent Dated ($/bbl) 47.62 51.63 61.63 56.87 61.79
WTI ($/bbl) 49.88 53.08 63.18 60.01 63.29
ANS USWC ($/bbl) 45.07 50.10 60.91 57.89 60.89
US gas Henry Hub first of month
index ($/mmbtu) 6.27 6.74 8.53 13.00 9.01
UK gas price – National Balance
Point (p/therm) 37.96 30.15 29.26 65.30 70.00
Urals (NWE – cif) ($/bbl) 42.54 48.08 57.13 53.23 58.15
Russian domestic Oil ($/bbl) 19.14 27.39 36.60 31.73 34.41
Overall BP production in 1Q’06 is expected to be around 4,025 thousand
barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed). Excluding volumes from TNK-BP
operations, production in 1Q’06 is expected to be around 3,035 mboed,
versus 2,995 mboed in 4Q’05. This increase primarily reflects the
progressive return of production impacted by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
BP’s net share of production from TNK-BP is expected to be approximately
990 mboed, versus 1,027 mboed in 4Q’05. This reduction reflects the impact
of disposals and of extremely cold weather in 1Q’06. The $270m contribution
in respect of gains on disposals in TNK-BP in 4Q’05 is not expected to
recur in 1Q’06.
Refining and Marketing
Refining Indicator Margins ($/bbl)
1Q’05 2Q’05 3Q’05 4Q’05 1Q’06
USA
– West Coast 12.88 14.53 17.57 8.90 11.22
– Gulf Coast 7.30 9.37 17.12 11.64 10.86
– Midwest 3.84 7.45 13.40 7.91 4.89
North West Europe 2.84 5.68 7.78 5.51 2.88
Singapore 4.98 6.30 6.52 4.42 3.54
Refining Global Indicator
Margin* 5.94 8.42 12.35 7.60 6.28
* The Refining Global Indicator Margin (GIM) is a generic indicator. Actual
margins realised by BP may vary significantly due to a variety of factors,
including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating
practices.
The 1Q’06 average Global Indicator Margin (GIM) was lower than the GIM for
4Q’05. Marketing margins in 1Q’06 are also expected to be lower than those
for 4Q’05.
Compared to 4Q’05, the result in 1Q’06 is expected to benefit from strong
supply optimisation, a lower level of refinery turnarounds (other than at
Texas City)and seasonally lower costs. Together these factors are expected
to offset lower refining and marketing margins.
BP’s Texas City Refinery remained shut-down to the end of 1Q’06. A phased
recommissioning began at the end of March.
4Q’05 included a charge of $467m in respect of restructuring and efficiency
programs. Charges in respect of these ongoing programs in 1Q’06 are not
expected to be material.
Gas, Power and Renewables
Margins in the GP&R business are expected to be significantly higher than
in 4Q’05 (excluding that quarter’s $289m of IFRS fair value accounting
gains), as a result of strong North American trading margins and
seasonality.
Other Businesses and Corporate
The charge in Other Businesses and Corporate is expected to be in line with
guidance given in our February ’06 investor webcast for an annual charge of
$900m +/- $200m.
Identified Non-Operating Items (NOIs)
Non-operating items in 1Q’06 are expected to amount to an overall credit of
around $100m.
Interest Expense
The total consolidated interest charge is expected to be around $100m.
Tax Rate
The effective tax rate for the quarter is expected to be around 35%. The
expected 2006 full year effective tax rate remains at around 39%, as
indicated in our February 2006 Strategy Review.
Gearing
Gearing for the quarter is expected to be comparable to the year-end 2005
level of 17%.
Distributions to Shareholders
During the quarter the company bought back 349 million shares for a total
consideration of $4.0 bn. Shares outstanding at March 29, 2006, excluding
treasury shares, were 20,336 million. As in previous quarters, BP has
entered into an arrangement that allows the share buy back programme to be
continued during the closed period which commenced at close of business in
London on March 31, 2006.
The 1Q’06 dividend of 9.375 cents per share announced at the time of our
4Q’05 results was paid in March. The dividend to be paid in 2Q’06 will be
announced on April 25, 2006 in conjunction with our 1Q’06 Stock Exchange
Announcement.
Rules of Thumb
Important note: The rules of thumb shown below were provided with BP’s
strategy update on February 7, 2006 and were intended to give directional
indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment relative to
that of 2005 on BP’s 2006 full year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb
are approximate.
Especially over short periods, changes in prices, margins, differentials,
seasonal demand patterns, and other factors can be material. Particular
differences may arise due to higher government shares of Exploration and
Production revenues in some jurisdictions at current price levels, as well
as from variations between the refining Global Indicator Margin (GIM) and
BP’s realised refining margins due to crude price levels and differentials,
product price movements and other factors. The GIM rule of thumb reflects
the sensitivity to the overall group to changes in refining margins. Many
other factors will affect BP’s earnings quarter by quarter. Actual results
in individual quarters may therefore differ significantly from the
estimates implied by the application of these rules of thumb.
2006 Operating Environment Rules of Thumb: impact on replacement cost
pre-tax operating profit per year of changes relative to 2005 environment
Full Year
Oil Price – Brent +/- $1/bbl $500m
Gas – Henry Hub +/- $ 0.10/mcf $80m
Refining – GIM +/- $ 1/bbl $950m
This trading update contains forward looking statements, particularly those
regarding oil and gas production; BP’s net share of production from TNK-BP;
refinery and marketing margins; the R&M result; the level of charges in
respect of restructuring and efficiency programs; the charge in Other
Businesses & Corporate; margins in the GP&R business; the amount of
non-operating items; the total consolidated interest charge; the effective
tax rate; and gearing. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on
circumstances that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may
differ from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of
factors, including the timing of bringing new fields
on stream; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing;
operational problems; general economic conditions; political stability and
economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and
governmental regulations; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use
of new technology; changes in public expectations and other changes in
business conditions; the actions of competitors; natural disasters and
adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and
other factors discussed elsewhere in this trading update and in BP Annual
Report and Accounts 2005.
(c)DGAP 05.04.2006
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language: English
emitter: BP p.l.c.
1 St James’s Square
SW1Y 4PD London Großbritannien
phone: +44 (0) 207-496-4000
fax: +44 (0) 207-496-4570
email: ir@bp.com
WWW: www.bp.com
ISIN: GB0007980591
WKN: 850517
indexes:
stockmarkets: Amtlicher Markt in SWX
End of News DGAP News-Service
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