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Risk and sensitivity analysis (Tables)

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2024

Risk and sensitivity analysis

Schedule of sensitivity analysis to foreign exchange risk

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​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​		31 Dec 2024 $m				31 Dec 2023 $m
Change in local currency to $exchange rates	​	Decrease of 5%		Increase of 5%	​	Decrease of 5%		Increase of 5%
Profit after tax for the year		102		(92)		72		(65)
Shareholders’ equity		624		(565)		595		(538)

Schedule of sensitivity analysis to market risk

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​	​	​	​	​
Base values		2024 $m		2023 $m
Profit after tax for the year for the Group	​	2,415	​	1,712
Group shareholders’ equity as at 31 Dec		17,492		17,823
CSM as at 31 Dec including JVs and associates		21,960		21,012

​

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​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​		31 Dec 2024 $m				31 Dec 2023 $m
Interest rates and consequential effects	​	Decrease of 0.5%	​	Increase of 1%	​	Decrease of 0.5%	​	Increase of 1%
Increase (decrease) to shareholders’ equity:	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Financial assets note	​	7,690	​	(13,462)	​	6,815	​	(12,004)
Net insurance contract liabilities (including CSM) note	​	(7,324)	​	12,474	​	(7,332)	​	12,191
Net effect on shareholders' equity		348		(878)		(328)		24
Increase (decrease) to profit after tax:	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Net effect on profit after tax	​	380	​	(940)	​	(328)	​	24
Increase (decrease) to CSM liability:	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
CSM note		395		(975)		358		(880)

​

​

​

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​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​		31 Dec 2024 $m				31 Dec 2023 $m
Equity/property market values	​	Decrease of 20%		Increase of 10%	​	Decrease of 20%	​	Increase of 10%
Increase (decrease) to shareholders’ equity:	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Financial assets note	​	(14,133)	​	7,075	​	(13,359)	​	6,681
Net insurance contract liabilities (including CSM) note	​	13,132	​	(6,628)	​	12,288	​	(6,254)
Net effect on shareholders' equity	​	(689)	​	302	​	(822)	​	327
Increase (decrease) to profit after tax:		​		​		​		​
Net effect on profit after tax	​	(738)	​	325	​	(822)	​	327
Increase (decrease) to CSM liability:	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
CSM note		(1,479)		651		(1,392)		618

Schedule of sensitivity analysis to insurance risk

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​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​		2024 $m
​	​	Net effect on shareholders’			​	​	​	​
​	​	equity and profit after tax			​	​	​	​
​	​	attributable to equity holders				Net effect on CSM
​		Gross of		Net of		Gross of		Net of
Sensitivity to insurance risk:		reinsurance		reinsurance		reinsurance		reinsurance
Maintenance expenses – 10% increase	​	(73)	​	(72)	​	(422)	​	(424)
Lapse rates – 10% increase	​	(97)	​	(72)	​	(1,435)	​	(1,593)
Mortality and morbidity – 5% increase	​	(110)	​	(108)	​	(689)	​	(269)

​

​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​		2023 $m
​	​	Net effect on shareholders’			​	​	​	​
​	​	equity and profit after tax			​	​	​	​
​	​	attributable to equity holders			​	Net effect on CSM
​		Gross of		Net of		Gross of		Net of
Sensitivity to insurance risk:		reinsurance		reinsurance		reinsurance		reinsurance
Maintenance expenses – 10% increase	​	(77)	​	(71)	​	(420)	​	(427)
Lapse rates – 10% increase	​	(88)	​	(76)	​	(1,363)	​	(1,496)
Mortality and morbidity – 5% increase	​	(131)	​	(96)	​	(638)	​	(261)

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- References

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- Definition

The disclosure of the sensitivity analysis to changes in risk variables that arise from contracts within the scope of IFRS 17.

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- Definition

The disclosure of the sensitivity analysis for types of market risk to which the entity is exposed, showing how profit or loss and equity would have been affected by changes in the relevant risk variable that were reasonably possible at that date. [Refer: Market risk [member]]

+ References

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Schedule of sensitivity analysis to foreign exchange risk

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