MCEV financial statements
Consolidated income statement - MCEV basis
For the year ended 31 December 2012
|
|
|
2012 £m |
|
|
2011 £m |
|
Continuing Operations |
Discontinued Operations |
Total |
Continuing Operations |
Discontinued Operations |
Total |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
United Kingdom & Ireland |
923 |
- |
923 |
1,102 |
- |
1,102 |
France |
246 |
- |
246 |
1,077 |
- |
1,077 |
United States |
- |
(378) |
(378) |
- |
241 |
241 |
Italy, Spain and Other |
570 |
- |
570 |
197 |
270 |
467 |
Higher Growth markets |
467 |
- |
467 |
512 |
- |
512 |
Long-term business |
2,206 |
(378) |
1,828 |
2,888 |
511 |
3,399 |
General insurance and health |
893 |
- |
893 |
935 |
1 |
936 |
Fund management1 |
24 |
4 |
28 |
27 |
14 |
41 |
Other operations2 |
(197) |
(4) |
(201) |
(201) |
4 |
(197) |
Market operating profit/(loss) |
2,926 |
(378) |
2,548 |
3,649 |
530 |
4,179 |
Corporate centre |
(136) |
- |
(136) |
(138) |
- |
(138) |
Group debt costs and other interest |
(659) |
(12) |
(671) |
(649) |
(12) |
(661) |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits (excluding Delta Lloyd as an associate) |
2,131 |
(390) |
1,741 |
2,862 |
518 |
3,380 |
Share of operating profit (before tax) of Delta Lloyd as an associate |
112 |
- |
112 |
157 |
- |
157 |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits |
2,243 |
(390) |
1,853 |
3,019 |
518 |
3,537 |
Integration and restructuring costs |
(464) |
(3) |
(467) |
(192) |
(20) |
(212) |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits after integration and restructuring costs |
1,779 |
(393) |
1,386 |
2,827 |
498 |
3,325 |
Adjusted for the following: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic variances on long-term business |
1,901 |
(6) |
1,895 |
(5,283) |
(1,574) |
(6,857) |
Short-term fluctuation in return on investments on non-long-term business |
7 |
- |
7 |
(266) |
(60) |
(326) |
Economic assumption changes on general insurance and health business |
(21) |
- |
(21) |
(90) |
- |
(90) |
Impairment of goodwill |
(154) |
(782) |
(936) |
(392) |
- |
(392) |
Amortisation and impairment of intangibles |
(110) |
(97) |
(207) |
(218) |
(53) |
(271) |
Profit on the disposal and remeasurement of subsidiaries and associates3 |
(1) |
1,095 |
1,094 |
565 |
159 |
724 |
Exceptional items |
51 |
- |
51 |
(57) |
- |
(57) |
Non-operating items before tax (excluding Delta Lloyd as an associate) |
1,673 |
210 |
1,883 |
(5,741) |
(1,528) |
(7,269) |
Share of Delta Lloyd's non-operating items (before tax) as an associate |
(523) |
- |
(523) |
10 |
- |
10 |
Non-operating items before tax |
1,150 |
210 |
1,360 |
(5,731) |
(1,528) |
(7,259) |
Share of Delta Lloyd's tax expense, as an associate |
107 |
- |
107 |
(34) |
- |
(34) |
Profit/(loss) before tax attributable to shareholders' profits |
3,036 |
(183) |
2,853 |
(2,938) |
(1,030) |
(3,968) |
Tax on operating profit |
(746) |
134 |
(612) |
(893) |
(155) |
(1,048) |
Tax on other activities |
(516) |
34 |
(482) |
1,753 |
562 |
2,315 |
|
(1,262) |
168 |
(1,094) |
860 |
407 |
1,267 |
Profit/(loss) for the period |
1,774 |
(15) |
1,759 |
(2,078) |
(623) |
(2,701) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Attributable to: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equity shareholders' of Aviva plc |
919 |
(15) |
904 |
(1,146) |
(594) |
(1,740) |
Non-controlling Interest |
855 |
- |
855 |
(932) |
(29) |
(961) |
|
1,774 |
(15) |
1,759 |
(2,078) |
(623) |
(2,701) |
1 Excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the Group that arises from the provision of fund management services to our life businesses.
These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.
2 Excludes the proportion of the results of subsidiaries providing services to the Life business. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.
3 Includes profit in respect of remeasurement of held for sale operations to expected fair value less cost to sell.
Earnings per share - MCEV basis
|
Continuing Operations |
Discontinued Operations |
Total 2012 |
Continuing Operations |
Discontinued Operations |
Total 2011 |
Operating earnings/(losses) per share on an MCEV basis after tax, attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic (pence per share) |
36.5p |
(8.8)p |
27.7p |
69.8p |
5.3p |
75.1p |
Diluted1 (pence per share) |
35.9p |
(8.8)p |
27.3p |
68.6p |
5.2p |
73.8p |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Earnings/(losses) after tax on an MCEV basis, attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic (pence per share) |
29.1p |
(0.5)p |
28.6p |
(63.1p) |
(0.2)p |
(63.3p) |
Diluted1 (pence per share) |
28.7p |
(0.5)p |
28.2p |
(63.1p) |
(0.2)p |
(63.3p) |
1 Losses have an anti-dilutive effect. Therefore the basic and diluted earnings have remained the same.
Page 4
Consolidated statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis
For the year ended 31 December 2012
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Profit/(loss) for the year from continuing operations |
1,774 |
(2,078) |
(Loss)/profit for the year from discontinued operations |
(15) |
(623) |
Profit/(loss) from the year |
1,759 |
(2,701) |
Other comprehensive income from continuing operations |
|
|
Fair value (losses)/gains on AFS securities, owner-occupied properties and hedging instruments |
- |
(9) |
Actuarial (losses)/gains on pension schemes |
(830) |
996 |
Actuarial (losses)/gains on pension schemes transferred to unallocated divisible surplus and other movements |
- |
(22) |
Share of other comprehensive (expense)/income of joint ventures and associates |
(7) |
(141) |
Foreign exchange rate movements |
(145) |
(448) |
Aggregate tax effect - shareholders tax |
172 |
(160) |
Other comprehensive (expense)/income, net of tax from continuing operations |
(810) |
216 |
Other comprehensive (expense)/income, net of tax from discontinued operations |
(14) |
118 |
Other comprehensive (expense)/income, net of tax |
(824) |
334 |
Total comprehensive income/(expense) for the year from continuing operations |
964 |
(1,862) |
Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the year from discontinued operations |
(29) |
(505) |
Total comprehensive income/(expense) for the year |
935 |
(2,367) |
|
|
|
Attributable to: |
|
|
Equity shareholders of Aviva plc |
102 |
(1,419) |
Non-controlling Interests |
833 |
(948) |
|
935 |
(2,367) |
Consolidated statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis
For the year ended 31 December 2012
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Balance at 1 January |
15,495 |
20,205 |
Total comprehensive income/(expense) for the year |
935 |
(2,367) |
Dividends and appropriations |
(847) |
(813) |
Shares issued in lieu of dividends |
127 |
307 |
Capital contributions from minority shareholders |
20 |
68 |
Movements in ordinary shareholder equity following deconsolidation of Delta Lloyd |
- |
(316) |
Movements in non-controlling interests following deconsolidation of Delta Lloyd |
- |
(1,484) |
Minority share of dividends declared in the year |
(102) |
(126) |
Issue of fixed rate tier 1 notes |
392 |
- |
Recycling of reserves to income statement on disposal of subsidiary |
187 |
(3) |
Non-controlling interest in (disposed)/acquired subsidiaries |
(13) |
- |
Changes in non-controlling interest in existing subsidiaries |
- |
(11) |
Shares acquired by employee trusts |
(33) |
(29) |
Shares distributed by employee trusts |
8 |
- |
Reserves credit for equity compensation plans |
42 |
48 |
Shares issued under equity compensation plans |
1 |
- |
Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax |
18 |
16 |
Total equity |
16,230 |
15,495 |
Non-controlling interests |
(2,214) |
(1,476) |
Balance at 31 December |
14,016 |
14,019 |
Page 5
Consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis
As at 31 December 2012
|
2012 £m |
Restated2 2011 £m |
Assets |
|
|
Goodwill |
1,520 |
2,640 |
Acquired value of in-force business and other intangibles |
1,084 |
2,021 |
Additional value of in-force long-term business1 |
4,870 |
132 |
Interest in, and loans to, joint ventures |
1,493 |
1,700 |
Interest in, and loans to, associates |
215 |
1,118 |
Property and equipment |
391 |
510 |
Investment property |
10,815 |
11,638 |
Loans |
24,537 |
28,116 |
Financial investments |
189,078 |
216,058 |
Reinsurance assets |
6,684 |
7,112 |
Deferred tax assets |
188 |
238 |
Current tax assets |
67 |
140 |
Receivables |
7,617 |
7,937 |
Deferred acquisition costs and other assets |
3,799 |
6,444 |
Prepayments and accrued income |
2,701 |
3,235 |
Cash and cash equivalents |
22,897 |
23,043 |
Assets of operations classified as held for sale |
42,603 |
426 |
Total assets |
320,559 |
312,508 |
Equity |
|
|
Ordinary share capital |
736 |
726 |
Capital reserves |
4,436 |
4,444 |
Other reserves |
1,171 |
1,262 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(32) |
(43) |
Retained earnings |
1,389 |
5,954 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis1 |
4,734 |
486 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
12,434 |
12,829 |
Preference share capital, direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
1,582 |
1,190 |
Non-controlling interests1 |
2,214 |
1,476 |
Total equity |
16,230 |
15,495 |
Liabilities |
|
|
Gross insurance liabilities |
113,091 |
147,379 |
Gross liabilities for investment contracts |
110,494 |
113,366 |
Unallocated divisible surplus |
6,931 |
650 |
Net asset value attributable to unitholders |
11,146 |
10,352 |
Provisions |
1,119 |
992 |
Deferred tax liabilities |
547 |
1,171 |
Current tax liabilities |
112 |
232 |
External borrowings |
8,194 |
8,450 |
Payables and other financial liabilities |
9,441 |
11,230 |
Other liabilities |
1,843 |
2,828 |
Liabilities of operations classified as held for sale |
41,411 |
363 |
Total liabilities |
304,329 |
297,013 |
Total equity and liabilities |
320,559 |
312,508 |
The summarised consolidated statement of financial position presented above is unaltered from the corresponding IFRS summarised consolidated statement of financial position with the exception of the following:
1 Adding the excess of the Life MCEV, including non-controlling interests, over the corresponding Life IFRS net assets represented as the additional value of in-force long-term business; corresponding item within equity represented by the additional retained profit on an MCEV basis; and, corresponding adjustments to non-controlling interests.
2 The 2011 results have been restated as outlined in E1 Basis of preparation
Page 6
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases
As at 31 December 2012
2012 |
IFRS £m |
Adjustment £m |
MCEV £m |
Ordinary share capital |
736 |
- |
736 |
Capital reserves |
4,436 |
- |
4,436 |
Other reserves |
1,675 |
(504) |
1,171 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(32) |
- |
(32) |
Retained earnings |
1,389 |
- |
1,389 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis |
- |
4,734 |
4,734 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
8,204 |
4,230 |
12,434 |
Preference share capital |
200 |
- |
200 |
Direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
1,382 |
- |
1,382 |
Non-controlling interests |
1,574 |
640 |
2,214 |
Total equity |
11,360 |
4,870 |
16,230 |
2011 |
IFRS £m |
Adjustment £m |
MCEV £m |
Ordinary share capital |
726 |
- |
726 |
Capital reserves |
4,444 |
- |
4,444 |
Other reserves |
1,562 |
(300) |
1,262 |
Shares held by employee trusts |
(43) |
- |
(43) |
Retained earnings |
5,954 |
- |
5,954 |
Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis |
- |
486 |
486 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc |
12,643 |
186 |
12,829 |
Preference share capital |
200 |
- |
200 |
Direct capital instruments |
990 |
- |
990 |
Non-controlling interests |
1,530 |
(54) |
1,476 |
Total equity |
15,363 |
132 |
15,495 |
Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth
As at 31 December 2012
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
11,360 |
15,363 |
Adjusting for general business and other net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
1,602 |
301 |
Life and related businesses net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis |
12,962 |
15,664 |
Goodwill and other intangibles |
(989) |
(2,117) |
Acquired value of in-force business |
(245) |
(960) |
Adjustment for share of joint ventures and associates |
(9) |
(7) |
Adjustment for assets to regulatory value net of tax |
94 |
(1,880) |
Adjustment for DAC and DIR net of tax |
(1,134) |
(2,622) |
Adjustment for differences in technical provisions |
(488) |
2,904 |
Other accounting and tax differences |
940 |
(507) |
MCEV net worth |
11,131 |
10,475 |
MCEV value of in-force 1 |
5,366 |
2,619 |
MCEV 2 |
16,497 |
13,094 |
1 Comprises PVFP of £8,616million (31 December 2011: £5,847million), FC of £(569)million (31 December 2011: £(642) million), CNHR of £(1,381)million (31 December 2011: £(1,046) million), and TVOG of £(1,300) million
(31 December 2011: £(1,540) million).
2 Comprises embedded value of £14,941million (31 December 2011: £12,274 million) and non-controlling interest in long-term business assets of £1,556 million (31 December 2011: £820 million).
Differences between the reconciling items for 2011 and 2012 arise mainly from exclusion of the reconciling items for the United States in 2012. For 2012, the adjustments for DAC and DIR and differences in technical provisions mainly relate to the UK & Ireland. For 2012, IFRS net assets includes the expected fair value less cost to sell for the United States and the total difference from the amount included for the United States in the MCEV net worth is included in Other accounting and tax differences. The MCEV for the United States and other held for sale operations are at their expected fair value less cost to sell, which is adjusted in the MCEV value of in-force rather than the MCEV net worth.
Page 7
Group MCEV analysis of earnings
2012 |
Covered business1 4 £m A |
Non- covered but related to life business2 £m B |
Total life business3 £m A+B |
Non- covered relating to non-life £m C |
Total non- covered business4 £m B+C |
Total £m A+B+C |
Opening Group MCEV |
12,274 |
2,533 |
14,807 |
(788) |
1,745 |
14,019 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
1,070 |
- |
1,070 |
(193) |
(193) |
877 |
Non-operating MCEV earnings |
713 |
(1,203) |
(490) |
517 |
(686) |
27 |
Total MCEV earnings |
1,783 |
(1,203) |
580 |
324 |
(879) |
904 |
Other movements in IFRS net equity |
- |
(145) |
(145) |
(521) |
(666) |
(666) |
Capital and dividend flows |
(283) |
- |
(283) |
178 |
178 |
(105) |
Foreign exchange variances |
(60) |
(41) |
(101) |
(35) |
(76) |
(136) |
Acquired/divested business |
1,227 |
31 |
1,258 |
(1,258) |
(1,227) |
- |
Closing Group MCEV |
14,941 |
1,175 |
16,116 |
(2,100) |
(925) |
14,016 |
Preference share capital, direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
|
|
|
|
|
(1,582) |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis |
|
|
|
|
|
12,434 |
1 Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.
2 Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.
3 Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.
4 Covered business includes an adjustment for held for sale operations through the acquired/divested business line which is reflected as non-operating earnings for non-covered business, consistent with where the profit would arise on completion of the sale.
2011 |
Covered business1 £m A |
Non- covered but related to life business2 £m B |
Total life business3 £m A+B |
Non- covered relating to non-life £m C |
Total non- covered business £m B+C |
Total £m A+B+C |
Opening Group MCEV |
15,874 |
2,339 |
18,213 |
(1,985) |
354 |
16,228 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
2,193 |
- |
2,193 |
4 |
4 |
2,197 |
Non-operating MCEV earnings |
(3,530) |
(218) |
(3,748) |
(189) |
(407) |
(3,937) |
Total MCEV earnings |
(1,337) |
(218) |
(1,555) |
(185) |
(403) |
(1,740) |
Other movements in IFRS net equity |
- |
412 |
412 |
270 |
682 |
682 |
Capital and dividend flows |
(493) |
- |
(493) |
(297) |
(297) |
(790) |
Foreign exchange variances |
(251) |
(30) |
(281) |
(80) |
(110) |
(361) |
Acquired/divested business |
(1,519) |
30 |
(1,489) |
1,489 |
1,519 |
- |
Closing Group MCEV |
12,274 |
2,533 |
14,807 |
(788) |
1,745 |
14,019 |
Preference share capital and direct capital instruments |
|
|
|
|
|
(1,190) |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis |
|
|
|
|
|
12,829 |
1 Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.
2 Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.
3 Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.
Page 8
E1 - Basis of preparation
The consolidated income statement and consolidated statement of financial position on pages 3 to 5 present the Group's results and financial position for the covered life and related businesses on the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis and for its non-covered businesses and non-covered but related to life businesses on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) basis.
The MCEV methodology adopted is in accordance with the MCEV Principles© published by the CFO Forum in October 2009 with the exception of stating held for sale operations at their expected fair value, as represented by expected sale proceeds, less cost to sell.
The CFO Forum Guidance (17.4) requires that sensitivities are provided for the total MCEV results. However, the sensitivity analysis in note E19 excludes held for sale operations, reflecting that these operations are stated at expected fair value less cost to sell. The CFO Forum Guidance (17.3.29) indicates that changes to models to reflect improvements or rectify errors should be included in the 'other operating variances' line. Where possible, such model refinements have been reported in the analysis of earnings on the line where the impact would have occurred in order to provide better information when considering assumption changes/experience variances over multiple reporting periods.
The directors consider that the MCEV methodology gives useful insight into the drivers of financial performance of the Group's life and related businesses. This basis values future cash flows from assets consistently with market prices, including more explicit allowance for the impact of uncertainty in future investment returns and other risks. Embedded value is also consistent with the way pricing is assessed and the business is managed.
The results for 2012 have been audited by our auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the results for 2011 were audited by Ernst and Young LLP. The PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP report in respect of 2012 can be found on page 40.
Copyright © Stichting CFO Forum Foundation 2008
Covered business
The MCEV calculations cover the following lines of business: life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pensions and annuity business written by our life insurance subsidiaries, including managed pension fund business and our share of certain life and related business written in our associated undertakings and joint ventures, as well as the equity release business written in the UK.
Covered business includes the Group's share of our joint ventures including our associated undertakings in India, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea. In addition, the results of Group companies providing significant administration, fund management and other services and of Group holding companies have been included to the extent that they relate to covered business. Together these businesses are referred to as "Life and related businesses".
Aviva's investment holding of Delta Lloyd is not included within covered business as MCEV is not used to manage Delta Lloyd. For 'Group' MCEV reporting, which includes general insurance and other non-covered business, Delta Lloyd is included on an IFRS basis.
New business premiums
New business premiums include:
n premiums arising from the sale of new contracts during the period;
n non-contractual additional premiums; and
n expected renewals on new contracts and expected future contractual alterations to new contracts.
The Group's definition of new business under MCEV includes contracts that meet the definition of "non-participating investment" contracts under IFRS.
For products sold to individuals, premiums are considered to represent new business where a new contract has been signed,
or where underwriting has been performed. Renewal premiums include contractual renewals, non-contractual variations that are reasonably predictable and recurrent single premiums that are pre-defined and reasonably predictable.
For group products, new business includes new contracts and increases to aggregate premiums under existing contracts. Renewal premiums are based on the level of premium received during the reporting period and allow for premiums expected to be received beyond the expiry of any guaranteed premium rates.
Life and pensions operating earnings
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The use of asset risk premia reflects management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the swap yield from investing in different asset classes.
The normalised investment return on equities and property has been calculated by reference to the ten-year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium. The expected return on bonds has been calculated by reference to the swap rate consistent with the duration of the backing assets in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk margin (expected return is equivalent to the gross redemption yield less an allowance for defaults).
The expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) is calculated using the implied discount rate (IDR), which itself is based on the normalised investment returns. The methodology applies the IDR to the Value of In Force (VIF) and Required Capital (RC) components of the MCEV and adds to this the total expected return for Free Surplus (FS) to derive the total expected return, in a manner consistent with that previously used under European Embedded Value reporting. This total is presented as the expected existing business contribution (reference rate), expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) and expected return on shareholders' net worth (grossed up for tax for pre-tax presentation), with only the excess contribution being impacted by the approach. For businesses where the IDR is unpublished, the expected return in excess of the reference rate is calculated as the excess of the real world equivalent embedded value (EqEV) over the MCEV amortised over the average duration of the portfolio. The approach to expected return has no impact on total return or on the closing balance sheet.
Page 9
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
MCEV methodology
Overview
Under the MCEV methodology, profit is recognised as it is earned over the life of products defined within covered business. The total profit recognised over the lifetime of a policy is the same as under the IFRS basis of reporting, but the timing of recognition is different.
Calculation of the embedded value
The shareholders' interest in the life and related businesses is represented by the embedded value. The embedded value is the total of the net worth of the life and related businesses and the value of in-force covered business. Calculations are performed separately for each business and are based on the cash flows of that business, after allowing for both external and intra-Group reinsurance. Where one life business has an interest in another, the net worth of that business excludes the interest in the dependent company.
The embedded value is calculated on an after-tax basis applying current legislation and practice together with future known changes. Consistent with CFO Forum guidance issued in 2012, no explicit allowance has been made for the developing European regulation regime (Solvency II) and associated consequences. Where gross results are presented, these have been calculated by grossing up post-tax results at the full rate of corporation tax for each country based on opening period tax rates, apart from the UK, where a 24% tax rate was used for 2012 for grossing up.
Net worth
The net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.
Required capital is the market value of assets attributed to the covered business over and above that required to back liabilities for covered business, for which distribution to shareholders is restricted. Required capital is reported net of implicit items permitted on a local regulatory basis to cover minimum solvency margins which are assessed at a local entity level. The level of required capital for each business unit is generally set equal to the higher of:
n The level of capital at which the local regulator is empowered to take action;
n The capital requirement of the business unit under the Group's economic capital requirements; and
n The target capital level of the business unit;
where "higher of" is assessed as the basis yielding the lowest level of free assets.
For Aviva US, the required capital is set at 325% of the NAIC Company Action Level in line with management targets and target credit ratings.
This methodology reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the business, and includes any additional shareholder funds not available for distribution, such as the reattributed inherited estate in the UK. The same definition of required capital is used for both existing and new business except in Italy where new business reflects the targeted capital level which better reflects the capital requirements of the new business.
The free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business at the valuation date. The level of required capital across the business units expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum solvency margin (or equivalent) can be found in E18.
Value of in-force covered business (VIF)
The value of in-force covered business consists of the following components:
n present value of future profits;
n time value of financial options and guarantees;
n frictional costs of required capital; and
n cost of residual non-hedgeable risks.
Present value of future profits (PVFP)
This is the present value of the distributable profits to shareholders arising from the in-force covered business projected on a best estimate basis.
Distributable profits generally arise when they are released following actuarial valuations. These valuations are carried out in accordance with any local statutory requirements designed to ensure and demonstrate solvency in long-term business funds. Future distributable profits will depend on experience in a number of areas such as investment return, discontinuance rates, mortality, administration costs, as well as management and policyholder actions. Releases to shareholders arising in future years from the in-force covered business and associated required capital can be projected using assumptions of future experience.
Future profits are projected using best estimate non-economic assumptions and market consistent economic assumptions. In principle, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that appropriately reflects the riskiness of that cash flow, so higher risk cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In practice, the PVFP is calculated using the "certainty equivalent" approach, under which the reference rate is used for both the investment return and the discount rate. This approach ensures that asset cash flows are valued consistently with the market prices of assets without options and guarantees. Further information on the risk-free rates is given in note E18.
The PVFP includes the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. This is referred to as the "look through" into service company expenses. In addition, expenses arising in holding companies that relate directly to acquiring or maintaining covered business have been allowed for. Where external companies provide services to the life and related businesses, their charges have been allowed for in the underlying projected cost base.
Page 10
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
Time value of financial options and guarantees (TVOG)
The PVFP calculation is based on a single (base) economic scenario; however, a single scenario cannot appropriately allow for the effect of certain product features. If an option or guarantee affects shareholder cash flows in the base scenario, the impact is included in the PVFP and is referred to as the intrinsic value of the option or guarantee; however, future investment returns are uncertain and the actual impact on shareholder profits may be higher or lower. The value of in-force business needs to be adjusted for the impact of the range of potential future outcomes. Stochastic modelling techniques can be used to assess the impact of potential future outcomes, and the difference between the intrinsic value and the total stochastic value is referred to as the time value of the option or guarantee.
Stochastic modelling typically involves projecting the future cash flows of the business under thousands of economic scenarios that are representative of the possible future outcomes for market variables such as interest rates and equity returns. Under a market consistent approach, the economic scenarios generated reflect the market's tendency towards risk aversion. Allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of management and/or policyholder actions in different economic conditions on future assumptions such
as asset mix, bonus rates and surrender rates.
Stochastic models are calibrated to market yield curves and volatility levels at the valuation date. Tests are performed to confirm that the scenarios used produce results that replicate the market price of traded instruments.
Where evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, dynamic lapse assumptions are set that vary depending on the individual scenarios. This cost is included in the TVOG. Dynamic lapses are modelled for parts of the UK, US and French businesses. Asymmetries in non-economic assumptions that are linked to economic scenarios, but that have insufficient evidence for credible dynamic assumptions, are allowed for within mean best estimate assumptions.
Frictional costs of required capital
The additional costs to a shareholder of holding the assets backing required capital within an insurance company rather than directly in the market are called frictional costs. They are explicitly deducted from the PVFP. The additional costs allowed for are the taxation costs and any additional investment expenses on the assets backing the required capital. The level of required capital has been set out above in the net worth section.
Frictional costs are calculated by projecting forwards the future levels of required capital in line with drivers of the capital requirement. Tax on investment return and investment expenses are payable on the assets backing required capital, up until the point that they are released to shareholders.
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR)
The cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR) covers risks not already allowed for in the time value of options and guarantees
or the PVFP. The allowance includes the impact of both non-hedgeable financial and non-financial risks. The most significant risk
not included in the PVFP or TVOG is operational risk.
Asymmetric risks allowed for in the TVOG or PVFP are described earlier in the basis of preparation. No allowance has been made within the cost of non-hedgeable risk for symmetrical risks as these are diversifiable by investors.
US capital solutions
Credit has been taken within the US embedded value, and value of new business, for the anticipated reduction in capital requirements based on management's intention to enact transactions which allow recognition of additional assets that can be held against certain reserves, reducing shareholder capital requirements. These 'AXXX/XXX' transactions are fixed-term and are assumed to renew at current market rates. Enacting such transactions is common practice within the US market, and by the end of 2012, transactions have been enacted for all business written from 2006 to 2012.
New business tax
New business for the US and Italy has been valued on a basis with tax applied at the full corporation rate and consequential movements in the value of the Deferred Tax Asset included as a variance within existing business operating return.
Participating business
Future regular bonuses on participating business are projected in a manner consistent with current bonus rates and expected future market-consistent returns on assets deemed to back the policies.
For with-profit funds in the UK and Ireland, for the purpose of recognising the value of the estate, it is assumed that terminal bonuses are increased to exhaust all of the assets in the fund over the future lifetime of the in-force with-profit policies. However, under stochastic modelling there may be some extreme economic scenarios when the total assets in the Group's with-profit funds
are not sufficient to pay all policyholder claims. The average additional shareholder cost arising from this shortfall has been included
in the TVOG.
For profit-sharing business in continental Europe, where policy benefits and shareholder value depend on the timing of realising gains, the apportionment of unrealised gains between policyholders and shareholders reflect contractual requirements as well as existing practice. Under certain economic scenarios where additional shareholder injections are required to meet policyholder payments, the average additional cost has been included in the TVOG.
The embedded value of the US spread-based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered.
Page 11
E1 - Basis of preparation continued
Consolidation adjustments
The effect of transactions between group life companies such as loans and reinsurance arrangements have been included in the results split by territory in a consistent manner. No elimination is required on consolidation.
As the MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the Group's life companies, the equivalent profits and losses have been removed from the relevant segment (other operations or fund management) and are instead included within the results of life and related businesses. In addition, the underlying basis of calculation for these profits has changed from the IFRS basis to the MCEV basis.
The capitalised value of the future profits and losses from such service companies are included in the embedded value and value of new business calculations for the relevant business, but the net assets (representing historical profits and other amounts) remain under other operations or fund management. In order to reconcile the profits arising in the financial period within each segment with the assets on the opening and closing statement of financial positions, a transfer of IFRS profits from life and related business to the appropriate segment is deemed to occur. An equivalent approach has been adopted for expenses within our holding companies.
The assessments of goodwill, intangibles and pension schemes relating to life insurance business utilise the IFRS measurement basis with any required adjustment reflected in the additional value of the in force long-term business in the consolidated statement of financial position.
Exchange rates
The Group's principal overseas operations during the period were located within the Eurozone, the United States and Poland.
The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated at the average rates for that period and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the period end rates. Please refer to note E18.
Held for Sale operations
Aviva's methodology adopts the MCEV Principles and Guidance published by the CFO Forum in October 2009 with the exception of stating held for sale operations at their expected fair value less cost to sell in the consolidated statement of financial position.
It is considered that the CFO Forum MCEV Principles were designed to define the approach to valuing covered business on an ongoing basis and do not explicitly define the appropriate treatment of covered business operations that are held for sale. For these operations, where an agreed sale price is known with relative certainty, the directors believe it is reasonable to value the shareholder's interest as the expected fair value less cost to sell thus reflecting the expected value upon completion of the transaction.
Certain life covered operations are considered as held for sale, consistent with the IFRS classification of these operations as detailed in note E18. The life covered MCEV for the held for sale operations has been adjusted within the value of in force business and this adjustment has been reported in the analysis of earnings through acquired/divested business line, resulting in an increase to the closing MCEV at 31 December 2012 of £1,270 million. The adjustment reflects the amount needed to align the contribution to shareholder equity with the expected fair value less cost to sell. There is no impact to the life and related business MCEV operating profits and total earnings. The consolidated income statement includes a profit on disposal and remeasurement of subsidiaries and associates based on the expected fair value less cost to sell of £1,270 million in relation to the life covered held for sale operations.
In line with the preparation of the consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis, the assets and liabilities of held for sale operations are stated at the IFRS values with any differences in measurement on an MCEV basis reflected in the additional value of in-force long term business.
Within the sensitivity analysis E19, and other disclosures where applicable, held for sale operations are excluded, reflecting that these operations are stated at expected fair value less cost to sell. Further details are provided against each applicable disclosure.
Discontinued Operations
In line with IFRS, the results for the held for sale operations in the United States for the current year and prior period are presented as discontinued operations.
The results presented as discontinued operations for 2011 also include Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011, at which point, the Group sold 25 million shares in Delta Lloyd N.V. ("Delta Lloyd") (the Group's Dutch long-term insurance, general insurance and fund management subsidiary), reducing our holding to approximately 43% of Delta Lloyd's ordinary share capital.
Following the partial disposal, when Delta Lloyd became an associate of Aviva, Delta Lloyd has been removed from covered business as it is not managed by either Aviva or Delta Lloyd on an MCEV basis. The impact on MCEV as at 6 May 2011 was a reduction of £1,519 million.
On 5 July 2012, the Group sold a further 37.2 million shares in Delta Lloyd for £313 million (net of transaction costs), reducing our holding at that date to 19.8% of Delta Lloyd's ordinary share capital. As the Group no longer had significant influence over Delta Lloyd, the Group ceased to account for that company as an associate from 5 July 2012. From that date, our holding was classified as a financial investment and it remains part of non-covered business on an MCEV basis.
Restatement
Following a review of the classification of contracts issued by the Group's Italian long-term business certain portfolios have been reclassified from participating insurance contracts to participating investment contracts in the IFRS financial statements. As a result there has been a reallocation from gross insurance liabilities at 31 December 2011 to gross liabilities for investment contracts of £2,722 million in the consolidated statement of financial position. There is no impact on profit for the year or equity reported for the year ended 31 December 2011
Page 12
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest 2012 |
United Kingdom & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Italy, Spain and Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
412 |
119 |
85 |
616 |
130 |
746 |
(280) |
466 |
Earnings from existing business: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate |
229 |
96 |
39 |
364 |
123 |
487 |
85 |
572 |
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate |
403 |
202 |
474 |
1,079 |
11 |
1,090 |
483 |
1,573 |
- expected returns |
632 |
298 |
513 |
1,443 |
134 |
1,577 |
568 |
2,145 |
- experience variances |
(120) |
(59) |
111 |
(68) |
(10) |
(78) |
(170) |
(248) |
- operating assumption changes |
(55) |
(103) |
(98) |
(256) |
182 |
(74) |
(386) |
(460) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
112 |
54 |
86 |
252 |
32 |
284 |
63 |
347 |
Other operating variances |
(58) |
(63) |
(127) |
(248) |
(1) |
(249) |
(173) |
(422) |
Operating earnings before tax |
923 |
246 |
570 |
1,739 |
467 |
2,206 |
(378) |
1,828 |
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest 2011 |
United Kingdom & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Italy, Spain and Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
376 |
142 |
166 |
684 |
136 |
820 |
(130) |
690 |
Earnings from existing business: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate |
228 |
113 |
64 |
405 |
99 |
504 |
81 |
585 |
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate |
366 |
140 |
145 |
651 |
33 |
684 |
624 |
1,308 |
- expected returns |
594 |
253 |
209 |
1,056 |
132 |
1,188 |
705 |
1,893 |
- experience variances |
93 |
26 |
11 |
130 |
14 |
144 |
(95) |
49 |
- operating assumption changes |
(133) |
244 |
(176) |
(65) |
221 |
156 |
(16) |
140 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
177 |
60 |
81 |
318 |
29 |
347 |
105 |
452 |
Other operating variances |
(5) |
352 |
(94) |
253 |
(20) |
233 |
(58) |
175 |
Operating earnings before tax |
1,102 |
1,077 |
197 |
2,376 |
512 |
2,888 |
511 |
3,399 |
Continuing Operations
Overall MCEV operating earnings for continuing operations reduced from £2,888 million in 2011 to £2,206 million in 2012. The key drivers of this reduction are set out below:
The overall value of new business reduced by 9% to £746 million (2011: £820 million), reflecting the 14% reduction in new business volumes partly offset by a 20bps increase in margin to 3.6% (2011: 3.4%).
Total expected return increased by £326 million to £1,861 million (2011: £1,535 million), reflecting an increase in the expected return on existing business by £389 million to £1,577 million in 2012 (2011: £1,188 million), mainly due to the expected reduction in cost of guarantees in Italy. This was partly offset by a reduction in expected return on shareholder net worth to £284 million (2011: £347 million).
Experience variances and Operating assumption changes total £ (152) million, driven by project spend in the UK and strengthened persistency assumptions across our major businesses. This compares with total positive experience variances and operating assumption changes of £300 million in 2011, giving an adverse variance compared with the prior year of £452 million.
There was also a significant variance on Other Operating Variances, which were £ (249) million in 2012, compared with a positive variance of £233 million in 2011. The majority of the total adverse movement of £482 million compared with the prior year arose in France, where there were favourable modelling improvements in 2011, but adverse changes in 2012 - and of this around half of the variance reflects our revised view on the terminal value of some specific reserves in this business.
The reported variances include around £110 million adverse impact of foreign exchange translation, particularly arising from the Euro and Zloty.
United Kingdom & Ireland
MCEV operating earnings were 16% lower at £923 million (2011: £1,102 million) as improvement in the value of new business has been more than offset by adverse experience variances, assumption changes and other operating variances during 2012 in the UK. A significant improvement in Ireland, where adverse variances in 2011 have not been repeated, is offset by the one off benefit of £149 million in the UK relating to the transfer of the former RBS joint venture business in 2011.
Value of new business increased by 10% to £412 million (2011: £376 million), reflecting the benefit from improved margins in protection and annuity business in the UK as a result of continued pricing discipline. These benefits outweigh the reduction in volumes in Ireland due to the closing of Ark Life to new business and the withdrawal from the large scale bulk purchase annuity market in the UK which did not meet economic hurdle rates.
Total expected return decreased by 3% to £744 million (2011: £771 million) primarily due to lower investment returns.
Experience variances, other operating variances and operating assumption changes decreased to £233 million adverse (2011: £45 million adverse) including higher expenditures from an increased level of regulatory change, unfavourable model improvements and revisions to mortality and persistency assumptions.
Page 13
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
France
MCEV operating earnings decreased to £246 million (2011: £1,077 million). 2012 included adverse experience and assumption changes in contrast to 2011, when operating profit included significant benefit from assumption changes and model refinements.
Value of new business decreased 16% to £119 million (2011: £142 million) following lower sales volumes of primarily unit-linked business and reduced margins on with-profit business as a result of the adverse economic climate in Europe in the year.
Total expected return increased 12% to £352 million (2011: £313 million) resulting from a higher opening implied discount rate, albeit on a lower embedded value.
Experience variances, other operating variances and operating assumption changes decreased to £225 million adverse (2011: £622 million) due to a revision of expense assumptions to reflect current experience, the inclusion of additional lapse provisions to reflect the current economic climate and the adverse modelling refinements referred to above. Assumption revisions in 2011 and economic circumstances over the year have lead to lower experience variances in 2012.
Italy, Spain and Other Developed Markets
MCEV operating earnings increased to £570 million (2011: £197 million) reflecting increased expected return as well as improvements in experience variances and assumption changes, partly offset by a reduction in the value of new business.
Value of new business decreased to £85 million (2011: £166 million) driven by a reduction in volumes and margin in Italy and Spain, reflecting the adverse economic climate in Europe during the year.
Total expected return increased to £599 million (2011: £290 million) primarily in Italy reflecting expected release of allowances for guarantees in the opening value.
Experience variances, other operating variances and operating assumption changes increased to £114 million adverse (2011: £259 million adverse) reflecting additional lapse provisions in Italy and Spain relating to the current economic climate and adverse modelling refinements in Italy. These are partly offset by the benefit of increased lapses on the business with guarantees in Italy and the marginal impact of new business value on deferred tax losses.
Higher growth markets
MCEV operating earnings decreased by 9% to £467 million (2011: £512 million) reflecting a decrease in experience variance and assumption changes from the prior period.
Value of new business decreased by 4% to £130 million (2011: £136 million) as the benefits of growth in Turkey do not fully offset the reduced volumes in Poland and lower margins in Asia.
Total expected return of £166 million (2011: £161 million) is broadly in line with prior period.
Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes of £171 million (2011: £215 million), were mainly due to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges in Poland.
Discontinued Operations
MCEV operating earnings decreased to £378 million adverse (2011: £511 million) driven by adverse value of new business, unfavourable experience variances and adverse assumption changes in the US. Delta Lloyd, which is no longer part of the covered business in 2012, contributed £270 million in 2011.
Value of new business decreased to £280 million adverse (2011: £130 million adverse) reflecting the adverse economic movements from lower risk-free rates. Delta Lloyd contributed £1million in 2011.
Total expected return of £631 million (2011: £810 million) is broadly in line with prior period in the US. Delta Lloyd contributed £169 million in 2011.
Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes decreased to £729 million adverse (2011: £169 million adverse) primarily reflecting the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, revisions to persistency and mortality assumptions, adverse modelling refinements and additional capital transaction costs. Delta Lloyd contributed £100 million in 2011.
Page 14
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest 2012 |
UK £m |
Ireland £m |
UK & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Poland £m |
Asia £m |
Other £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
420 |
(8) |
412 |
119 |
56 |
29 |
- |
616 |
35 |
63 |
32 |
130 |
746 |
(280) |
466 |
Earnings from existing business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
215 |
14 |
229 |
96 |
27 |
9 |
3 |
364 |
85 |
24 |
14 |
123 |
487 |
85 |
572 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
381 |
22 |
403 |
202 |
101 |
373 |
- |
1,079 |
6 |
5 |
- |
11 |
1,090 |
483 |
1,573 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
(28) |
- |
(28) |
(9) |
(7) |
(3) |
6 |
(41) |
4 |
- |
(1) |
3 |
(38) |
(16) |
(54) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(74) |
(1) |
(75) |
(2) |
- |
- |
- |
(77) |
- |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
(79) |
(21) |
(100) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
1 |
(3) |
(2) |
1 |
12 |
(2) |
2 |
11 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
14 |
25 |
(24) |
1 |
- lapses3 |
(15) |
7 |
(8) |
(24) |
- |
67 |
(5) |
30 |
(6) |
(12) |
(3) |
(21) |
9 |
1 |
10 |
- other4 |
(6) |
(1) |
(7) |
(25) |
1 |
41 |
(1) |
9 |
(6) |
3 |
(1) |
(4) |
5 |
(110) |
(105) |
|
(122) |
2 |
(120) |
(59) |
6 |
103 |
2 |
(68) |
- |
(8) |
(2) |
(10) |
(78) |
(170) |
(248) |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense5 |
8 |
2 |
10 |
(69) |
(25) |
28 |
4 |
(52) |
35 |
(3) |
(1) |
31 |
(21) |
- |
(21) |
- project and other related expenses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
(36) |
2 |
(34) |
5 |
(1) |
8 |
- |
(22) |
20 |
9 |
- |
29 |
7 |
(220) |
(213) |
- lapses7 |
(12) |
5 |
(7) |
(39) |
(29) |
(93) |
- |
(168) |
(83) |
- |
- |
(83) |
(251) |
(72) |
(323) |
- other8 |
(23) |
(1) |
(24) |
- |
10 |
- |
- |
(14) |
205 |
- |
- |
205 |
191 |
(94) |
97 |
|
(63) |
8 |
(55) |
(103) |
(45) |
(57) |
4 |
(256) |
177 |
6 |
(1) |
182 |
(74) |
(386) |
(460) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
99 |
13 |
112 |
54 |
26 |
59 |
1 |
252 |
11 |
16 |
5 |
32 |
284 |
63 |
347 |
Other operating variances9 |
(67) |
9 |
(58) |
(63) |
(11) |
(110) |
(6) |
(248) |
3 |
1 |
(5) |
(1) |
(249) |
(173) |
(422) |
Earnings before tax and non-controlling interests |
863 |
60 |
923 |
246 |
160 |
406 |
4 |
1,739 |
317 |
107 |
43 |
467 |
2,206 |
(378) |
1,828 |
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses. Within the UK the maintenance expense variance reflects a one-off realignment of investment expense allocation between With Profit and Non Profit business and project and other related expenses include higher expenditures related to increased level of regulatory change.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses.
3 Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our business, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Positive lapse variance in Italy reflects increased lapses on business with guarantees.
4 Other experience includes the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred losses in the US and Italy as well as other tax variances in the US and the impact of policyholders switching to with profit funds in France.
5 Maintenance expense assumptions have been revised based on recent analysis.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in the UK and US, primarily related to annuities.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses and include additional provisions in Developed markets reflecting economic circumstances.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling refinements in the UK, France and Italy and the cost of capital transactions and model refinements in the US.
Page 15
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest 2011 |
UK £m |
Ireland £m |
UK & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Poland £m |
Asia £m |
Other £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
380 |
(4) |
376 |
142 |
86 |
75 |
5 |
684 |
45 |
71 |
20 |
136 |
820 |
(130) |
690 |
Earnings from existing business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
214 |
14 |
228 |
113 |
34 |
23 |
7 |
405 |
72 |
16 |
11 |
99 |
504 |
81 |
585 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
340 |
26 |
366 |
140 |
72 |
72 |
1 |
651 |
20 |
10 |
3 |
33 |
684 |
624 |
1,308 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
2 |
(8) |
(6) |
(14) |
2 |
(7) |
5 |
(20) |
6 |
- |
(3) |
3 |
(17) |
(47) |
(64) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(30) |
(1) |
(31) |
(15) |
(1) |
- |
- |
(47) |
- |
(4) |
(1) |
(5) |
(52) |
(12) |
(64) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
33 |
(5) |
11 |
2 |
45 |
12 |
7 |
- |
19 |
64 |
(36) |
28 |
- lapses3 |
(11) |
(12) |
(23) |
9 |
- |
2 |
(5) |
(17) |
4 |
(14) |
- |
(10) |
(27) |
4 |
(23) |
- other4 |
153 |
(4) |
149 |
13 |
- |
7 |
- |
169 |
9 |
(2) |
- |
7 |
176 |
(4) |
172 |
|
116 |
(23) |
93 |
26 |
(4) |
13 |
2 |
130 |
31 |
(13) |
(4) |
14 |
144 |
(95) |
49 |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expenses5 |
63 |
(65) |
(2) |
11 |
(4) |
(28) |
(2) |
(25) |
51 |
19 |
- |
70 |
45 |
46 |
91 |
- project and other related expenses5 |
(65) |
- |
(65) |
(4) |
- |
- |
- |
(69) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(69) |
- |
(69) |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
(18) |
- |
(18) |
163 |
(16) |
- |
6 |
135 |
22 |
(6) |
- |
16 |
151 |
(1) |
150 |
- lapses7 |
(1) |
(57) |
(58) |
107 |
(65) |
(5) |
(33) |
(54) |
37 |
(24) |
3 |
16 |
(38) |
(136) |
(174) |
- other8 |
10 |
- |
10 |
(33) |
- |
(28) |
(1) |
(52) |
117 |
- |
2 |
119 |
67 |
75 |
142 |
|
(11) |
(122) |
(133) |
244 |
(85) |
(61) |
(30) |
(65) |
227 |
(11) |
5 |
221 |
156 |
(16) |
140 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
147 |
30 |
177 |
60 |
32 |
47 |
2 |
318 |
10 |
16 |
3 |
29 |
347 |
105 |
452 |
Other operating variances9 |
7 |
(12) |
(5) |
352 |
2 |
(95) |
(1) |
253 |
5 |
(11) |
(14) |
(20) |
233 |
(58) |
175 |
Earnings before tax and non-controlling interests |
1,193 |
(91) |
1,102 |
1,077 |
137 |
74 |
(14) |
2,376 |
410 |
78 |
24 |
512 |
2,888 |
511 |
3,399 |
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
3 Persistency experience continues to be somewhat volatile across our businesses. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
4 Other experience includes tax benefits from the transfer of former RBS joint venture business into the long-term fund in the UK.
5 Maintenance and project expense assumptions have been revised in many regions with a broadly neutral impact on continuing business.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in France reflecting experience.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses reflecting lower expected lapses in France (AFER), increases due to the economic environment in Ireland and Spain, and, in the US, revisions to dynamic policyholder lapse behaviour.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges, and, in the US, revisions to policyholder utilisation of rider benefits offset by revisions to annuity spread assumptions.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling changes and the release of a modelling provision in France, and modelling refinements in Italy, and, in the US, the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, with cost of capital transactions and model refinements broadly offsetting.
Page 16
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
Net of tax and non-controlling interest 2012 |
UK £m |
Ireland £m |
UK & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Poland £m |
Asia £m |
Other £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
319 |
(6) |
313 |
67 |
15 |
8 |
- |
403 |
26 |
50 |
26 |
102 |
505 |
(182) |
323 |
Earnings from existing business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
164 |
9 |
173 |
61 |
11 |
2 |
3 |
250 |
61 |
17 |
11 |
89 |
339 |
55 |
394 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
289 |
14 |
303 |
123 |
35 |
107 |
- |
568 |
5 |
4 |
- |
9 |
577 |
314 |
891 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
(21) |
- |
(21) |
(6) |
(5) |
(1) |
5 |
(28) |
3 |
- |
- |
3 |
(25) |
(11) |
(36) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(56) |
(1) |
(57) |
(2) |
- |
- |
- |
(59) |
- |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
(61) |
(13) |
(74) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
1 |
(2) |
(1) |
- |
4 |
(1) |
1 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
11 |
14 |
(16) |
(2) |
- lapses3 |
(12) |
5 |
(7) |
(14) |
(1) |
18 |
(4) |
(8) |
(5) |
(7) |
(2) |
(14) |
(22) |
1 |
(21) |
- other4 |
(4) |
- |
(4) |
(18) |
- |
12 |
(1) |
(11) |
(4) |
2 |
(1) |
(3) |
(14) |
(72) |
(86) |
|
(92) |
2 |
(90) |
(40) |
(2) |
28 |
1 |
(103) |
- |
(4) |
(1) |
(5) |
(108) |
(111) |
(219) |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expenses5 |
6 |
1 |
7 |
(46) |
(21) |
9 |
4 |
(47) |
24 |
(2) |
(1) |
21 |
(26) |
- |
(26) |
- project and other related expenses |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(1) |
- |
(1) |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
(27) |
1 |
(26) |
3 |
(1) |
2 |
- |
(22) |
15 |
7 |
- |
22 |
- |
(143) |
(143) |
- lapses7 |
(9) |
3 |
(6) |
(26) |
(12) |
(26) |
- |
(70) |
(60) |
(1) |
- |
(61) |
(131) |
(47) |
(178) |
- other8 |
(17) |
- |
(17) |
- |
3 |
- |
- |
(14) |
149 |
- |
- |
149 |
135 |
(61) |
74 |
|
(48) |
5 |
(43) |
(69) |
(31) |
(15) |
4 |
(154) |
128 |
4 |
(1) |
131 |
(23) |
(251) |
(274) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
76 |
9 |
85 |
32 |
10 |
18 |
1 |
146 |
7 |
12 |
4 |
23 |
169 |
41 |
210 |
Other operating variances9 |
(51) |
6 |
(45) |
(50) |
(5) |
(37) |
(5) |
(142) |
2 |
1 |
(4) |
(1) |
(143) |
(112) |
(255) |
Earnings after tax and non-controlling interests |
657 |
39 |
696 |
124 |
33 |
111 |
4 |
968 |
229 |
84 |
35 |
348 |
1,316 |
(246) |
1,070 |
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses. Within the UK the maintenance expense variance reflects a one-off realignment of investment expense allocation between With Profit and Non Profit business and project and other related expenses include higher expenditures related to increased level of regulatory change.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses.
3 Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our business, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. Positive lapse variance in Italy reflects increased lapses on business with guarantees.
4 Other experience includes the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred losses in the US and Italy as well as other tax variances in the US and the impact of policyholders switching to with profit funds in France.
5 Maintenance expense assumptions have been revised based on recent analysis.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in the UK and US, primarily related to annuities.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses and include additional provisions in Developed markets reflecting economic circumstances.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling refinements in the UK, France and Italy and the cost of capital transactions and model refinements in the US.
Page 17
E2 - Geographical analysis of life MCEV operating earnings continued
Net of tax and non-controlling interest 2011 |
UK £m |
Ireland £m |
UK & Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Other £m |
Developed markets £m |
Poland £m |
Asia £m |
Other £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Continuing operations £m |
Discontinued operations £m |
Total £m |
Value of new business |
281 |
(3) |
278 |
79 |
28 |
23 |
4 |
412 |
34 |
55 |
16 |
105 |
517 |
(85) |
432 |
Earnings from existing business |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
158 |
9 |
167 |
71 |
13 |
7 |
7 |
265 |
51 |
12 |
9 |
72 |
337 |
47 |
384 |
- expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
252 |
17 |
269 |
84 |
26 |
22 |
1 |
402 |
15 |
7 |
3 |
25 |
427 |
375 |
802 |
Experience variances |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expense1 |
2 |
(6) |
(4) |
(9) |
1 |
(4) |
4 |
(12) |
4 |
- |
(2) |
2 |
(10) |
(30) |
(40) |
- project and other related expenses1 |
(22) |
- |
(22) |
(10) |
(1) |
- |
- |
(33) |
- |
(3) |
(1) |
(4) |
(37) |
(9) |
(46) |
- mortality/morbidity2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
21 |
(2) |
4 |
1 |
26 |
8 |
6 |
- |
14 |
40 |
(22) |
18 |
- lapses3 |
(7) |
(8) |
(15) |
8 |
(3) |
- |
(5) |
(15) |
3 |
(11) |
1 |
(7) |
(22) |
3 |
(19) |
- other4 |
113 |
(2) |
111 |
6 |
- |
2 |
1 |
120 |
7 |
(2) |
(1) |
4 |
124 |
(5) |
119 |
|
87 |
(15) |
72 |
16 |
(5) |
2 |
1 |
86 |
22 |
(10) |
(3) |
9 |
95 |
(63) |
32 |
Operating assumption changes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- maintenance expenses5 |
47 |
(45) |
2 |
7 |
(2) |
(10) |
(1) |
(4) |
36 |
14 |
(1) |
49 |
45 |
8 |
53 |
- project and other related expenses5 |
(49) |
- |
(49) |
(2) |
- |
- |
- |
(51) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(51) |
- |
(51) |
- mortality/morbidity6 |
(14) |
- |
(14) |
101 |
(5) |
- |
4 |
86 |
16 |
(6) |
1 |
11 |
97 |
(1) |
96 |
- lapses7 |
- |
(38) |
(38) |
73 |
(23) |
(1) |
(29) |
(18) |
26 |
(18) |
4 |
12 |
(6) |
(88) |
(94) |
- other8 |
7 |
- |
7 |
(21) |
- |
(8) |
(2) |
(24) |
84 |
- |
3 |
87 |
63 |
49 |
112 |
|
(9) |
(83) |
(92) |
158 |
(30) |
(19) |
(28) |
(11) |
162 |
(10) |
7 |
159 |
148 |
(32) |
116 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
109 |
20 |
129 |
36 |
13 |
16 |
1 |
195 |
7 |
12 |
2 |
21 |
216 |
59 |
275 |
Other operating variances9 |
6 |
(9) |
(3) |
237 |
1 |
(29) |
2 |
208 |
4 |
(7) |
(14) |
(17) |
191 |
(39) |
152 |
Earnings after tax and non-controlling interests |
884 |
(64) |
820 |
681 |
46 |
22 |
(12) |
1,557 |
295 |
59 |
20 |
374 |
1,931 |
262 |
2,193 |
1 Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.
2 Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France. Adverse experience reflects normal volatility in mortality and increased retention limits in the US.
3 Persistency experience continues to be somewhat volatile across our businesses. Asia reflects an accumulation of small adverse experience across businesses.
4 Other experience includes tax benefits from the transfer of former RBS joint venture business into the long-term fund in the UK.
5 Maintenance and project expense assumptions have been revised in many regions with a broadly neutral impact on continuing business.
6 Mortality assumptions have been updated in France reflecting experience.
7 Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses reflecting lower expected lapses in France (AFER), increases due to the economic environment in Ireland and Spain, and, in the US, revisions to dynamic policyholder
lapse behaviour.
8 Other operating assumption changes in Poland relate to a change to assumed management actions in relation to product charges, and, in the US, revisions to policyholder utilisation of rider benefits offset by revisions to annuity spread assumptions.
9 Other operating variances relate to modelling changes and the release of a modelling provision in France, and modelling refinements in Italy, and, in the US, the marginal impact of new business on the value of deferred tax losses, with cost
of capital transactions and model refinements broadly offsetting.
Page 18
E3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings
The summarised consolidated income statement - MCEV basis includes earnings from the Group's fund management operations
as analysed below. This excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the Group that arise from the provision of fund management services to our Life businesses.
These results are included within the Life MCEV operating earnings.
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Aviva Investors |
12 |
16 |
United Kingdom |
11 |
11 |
Other |
1 |
- |
Total - continuing operations |
24 |
27 |
Total - discontinued operations |
4 |
14 |
Total |
28 |
41 |
E4 - Other operations
Where subsidiaries provide services to our life business, that proportion has been excluded. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating return.
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Developed markets |
(60) |
(38) |
Higher growth markets |
(12) |
(30) |
Other operations |
(125) |
(133) |
Total - continuing operations |
(197) |
(201) |
Total - discontinued operations |
(4) |
4 |
Total |
(201) |
(197) |
E5 - Exceptional items and integration and restructuring costs
Exceptional items of £51 million (2011: £(57) million) relate to pension regulation changes in Turkey and Poland.
Integration and restructuring costs were £467 million (2011: £212 million). This cost relates to restructuring and transformation activity we have taken to align our business operations with our strategy, including the Group's Simplify programme (£165 million), Ireland transformation (£153 million) including the merger of our UK and Ireland businesses, £24 million in relation to the transformation of Aviva Investors and £27 million in respect of other restructuring activities. Also included was an expense of £98 million, relating to preparing the business for the implementation of Solvency II.
Page 19
E6 - Segmentation of consolidated statement of financial position
|
|
|
2012 |
|
|
2011 |
|
Life and related businesses £m |
General business and other £m |
Group £m |
Life and related businesses £m |
General business and other £m |
Group £m |
Total assets before acquired value of in-force long-term business |
286,358 |
29,204 |
315,562 |
281,471 |
30,090 |
311,561 |
Acquired additional value of in-force long-term business |
127 |
- |
127 |
815 |
- |
815 |
Total assets included in the IFRS statement of financial position |
286,485 |
29,204 |
315,689 |
282,286 |
30,090 |
312,376 |
Liabilities of the long-term business |
(273,523) |
- |
(273,523) |
(266,622) |
- |
(266,622) |
Liabilities of the general insurance and other businesses |
- |
(30,806) |
(30,806) |
- |
(30,391) |
(30,391) |
Net assets on a statutory IFRS basis |
12,962 |
(1,602) |
11,360 |
15,664 |
(301) |
15,363 |
Additional value of in-force long-term business1 |
4,870 |
- |
4,870 |
132 |
- |
132 |
Net assets on an MCEV basis2 |
17,832 |
(1,602) |
16,230 |
15,796 |
(301) |
15,495 |
Equity capital, capital reserves, shares held by employee trusts and other reserves |
|
|
6,311 |
|
|
6,389 |
IFRS basis retained earnings |
|
|
1,389 |
|
|
5,954 |
Additional MCEV basis retained earnings |
|
|
4,734 |
|
|
486 |
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis |
|
|
12,434 |
|
|
12,829 |
Preference share capital, direct capital instruments and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
|
|
1,582 |
|
|
1,190 |
Non-controlling interests |
|
|
2,214 |
|
|
1,476 |
MCEV basis total equity |
|
|
16,230 |
|
|
15,495 |
1 The analysis between the Group's and non-controlling interests' share of the additional value of in-force long-term business is as follows:
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Movement in year £m |
Group's share included in shareholders' funds |
4,734 |
486 |
4,248 |
Non-controlling interests' share |
640 |
(54) |
694 |
Movement in AFS securities |
(504) |
(300) |
(204) |
Additional value in-force long-term business |
4,870 |
132 |
4,738 |
2 Analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis is made up as follows:
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Embedded Value |
14,941 |
12,274 |
Non-controlling interests |
1,556 |
820 |
|
16,497 |
13,094 |
Goodwill and intangible assets allocated to long-term business3 |
895 |
2,117 |
Notional allocation of IAS 19 pension fund surplus/(deficit) to long-term business4 |
440 |
585 |
Long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis |
17,832 |
15,796 |
3 Goodwill and intangible assets includes amounts related to associated undertakings and joint ventures and are after adjustments reflected in the additional value of in-force long-term business in the consolidated statement of financial position. In 2012 there is an adjustment to impair goodwill by a further £94 million compared to IFRS. There were no adjustments in 2011.
4 The value of the Aviva Staff Pension Scheme surplus has been notionally allocated between segments, based on current funding and, within the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis, the Life proportion has been included. The pension fund surplus notionally allocated to long-term business is net of the agreed funding borne by the UK with-profit funds.
Page 20
E7 - Analysis of life and pension earnings
The following table provides an analysis of the movement in embedded value for covered business. The analysis is shown separately for free surplus, required capital and the value of in-force covered business, and includes amounts transferred between these categories. All figures are shown net of tax and non-controlling interests.
|
Continuing operations |
Discontinued operations |
Total |
Net of tax and non-controlling interests 2012 |
Free surplus £m |
Required capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Free surplus £m |
Required capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Opening MCEV |
1,355 |
6,390 |
4,327 |
12,072 |
(11) |
1,575 |
(1,362) |
202 |
12,274 |
New business value |
(389) |
155 |
739 |
505 |
(319) |
298 |
(161) |
(182) |
323 |
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
- |
- |
339 |
339 |
- |
- |
55 |
55 |
394 |
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
- |
- |
577 |
577 |
- |
- |
314 |
314 |
891 |
Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus |
1,133 |
(246) |
(887) |
- |
587 |
(375) |
(212) |
- |
- |
Experience variances |
112 |
(162) |
(58) |
(108) |
(212) |
53 |
48 |
(111) |
(219) |
Assumption changes |
- |
30 |
(53) |
(23) |
- |
- |
(251) |
(251) |
(274) |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
56 |
113 |
- |
169 |
(7) |
48 |
- |
41 |
210 |
Other operating variances |
314 |
30 |
(487) |
(143) |
(8) |
- |
(104) |
(112) |
(255) |
Operating MCEV earnings |
1,226 |
(80) |
170 |
1,316 |
41 |
24 |
(311) |
(246) |
1,070 |
Economic variances |
(390) |
121 |
1,022 |
753 |
216 |
(67) |
(153) |
(4) |
749 |
Other non-operating variances2 |
(71) |
- |
36 |
(35) |
(4) |
- |
3 |
(1) |
(36) |
Total MCEV earnings |
765 |
41 |
1,228 |
2,034 |
253 |
(43) |
(461) |
(251) |
1,783 |
Capital & dividend flows3 |
(299) |
- |
- |
(299) |
16 |
- |
- |
16 |
(283) |
Foreign exchange variances |
5 |
(88) |
27 |
(56) |
(6) |
(69) |
71 |
(4) |
(60) |
Acquired/divested business4 |
- |
(17) |
149 |
132 |
- |
- |
1,095 |
1,095 |
1,227 |
Closing MCEV |
1,826 |
6,326 |
5,731 |
13,883 |
252 |
1,463 |
(657) |
1,058 |
14,941 |
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2 Other non-operating variances relate to costs for Solvency II implementation and other restructuring exercises, as well as the impact of regulatory changes in Poland and Turkey.
3 Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the 'look through' into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.
4 Acquired/divested business includes the adjustment for held for sale operations, the acquisition of Pelayo Vida on 17 January 2012, and the divesture of Czech, Hungarian, Romanian and Sri Lankan Life businesses.
|
Continuing operations |
Discontinued operations |
Total |
Net of tax and non-controlling interests 2011 |
Free surplus £m |
Required capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Free surplus £m |
Required capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Total MCEV £m |
Opening MCEV |
1,495 |
5,961 |
5,691 |
13,147 |
108 |
2,381 |
238 |
2,727 |
15,874 |
New business value |
(558) |
254 |
821 |
517 |
(376) |
319 |
(28) |
(85) |
432 |
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate) |
- |
- |
337 |
337 |
- |
- |
47 |
47 |
384 |
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) |
- |
- |
427 |
427 |
- |
- |
375 |
375 |
802 |
Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus |
1,193 |
(223) |
(970) |
- |
714 |
(385) |
(329) |
- |
- |
Experience variances |
169 |
61 |
(135) |
95 |
(122) |
100 |
(41) |
(63) |
32 |
Assumption changes |
96 |
(92) |
144 |
148 |
- |
- |
(32) |
(32) |
116 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
97 |
119 |
- |
216 |
(1) |
60 |
- |
59 |
275 |
Other operating variances |
(16) |
5 |
202 |
191 |
132 |
13 |
(184) |
(39) |
152 |
Operating MCEV earnings |
981 |
124 |
826 |
1,931 |
347 |
107 |
(192) |
262 |
2,193 |
Economic variances |
(790) |
432 |
(2,208) |
(2,566) |
298 |
(63) |
(1,179) |
(944) |
(3,510) |
Other non-operating variances2 |
(30) |
(19) |
42 |
(7) |
(21) |
1 |
7 |
(13) |
(20) |
Total MCEV earnings |
161 |
537 |
(1,340) |
(642) |
624 |
45 |
(1,364) |
(695) |
(1,337) |
Capital & dividend flows3,4 |
(316) |
- |
126 |
(190) |
(85) |
- |
(218) |
(303) |
(493) |
Foreign exchange variance |
15 |
(108) |
(150) |
(243) |
(16) |
42 |
(34) |
(8) |
(251) |
Acquired/divested business5 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(642) |
(893) |
16 |
(1,519) |
(1,519) |
Closing MCEV |
1,355 |
6,390 |
4,327 |
12,072 |
(11) |
1,575 |
(1,362) |
202 |
12,274 |
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins
2 Other non-operating variances primarily relate to costs for Solvency II implementation.
3 Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the 'look through' into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.
4 As a result of the January 2012 announced disposal of the Czech, Hungarian, and Romanian businesses, the VIF movement reflects the write-down of this business to the IFRS carrying value.
5 Divested business is the removal of Delta Lloyd from covered business subsequent to the reduction of our holding to 43% on 6th May 2011.
Page 21
E8 - Life MCEV operating earnings
The table below presents the life and pensions MCEV earnings broken down into constituent parts. The life and pensions MCEV operating earnings comprise: the value of new business written during the year; the earnings from existing business including other operating variances; and the expected investment return on the shareholders' net worth.
These components are calculated using economic assumptions as at the start of the year (in-force business) or start of the quarter (new business) and operating (demographic and expenses) assumptions as at the end of the year.
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest |
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Value of new business |
746 |
820 |
Earnings from existing business |
|
|
- expected returns at the reference rate |
487 |
504 |
- expected returns in excess of the reference rate |
1,090 |
684 |
- expected returns |
1,577 |
1,188 |
- experience variances |
(78) |
144 |
- operating assumption changes |
(74) |
156 |
Other operating variance |
(249) |
233 |
Expected return on shareholders' net worth |
284 |
347 |
Life and pensions operating earnings before tax |
2,206 |
2,888 |
Economic variances |
1,901 |
(5,283) |
Other non-operating variances |
(42) |
(12) |
Life and pensions earnings before tax |
4,065 |
(2,407) |
Tax on operating earnings |
(576) |
(824) |
Tax on other activities |
(619) |
1,651 |
Life and pensions earnings after tax - continuing operations |
2,870 |
(1,580) |
Life and pensions earnings after tax - discontinued operations |
(251) |
(707) |
Life and pensions earnings after tax |
2,619 |
(2,287) |
There were no separate development costs reported in these years.
Other non-operating variances relate to costs for Solvency II implementation and other restructuring exercises, as well as the impact of regulatory changes in Poland and Turkey.
The table above presents a summarised breakdown of the life and pensions MCEV earnings on a gross of non-controlling interests basis and gross of tax with tax shown separately. The Group favours the gross presentation for consistency with the IFRS results. The table below compares the key items on the different bases as the subsequent analysis is provided predominantly on a net of tax and non-controlling interests basis as preferred by the CFO Forum Principles.
Key indicators
|
2012 |
2011 |
|
Net of non- controlling interests and tax £m |
Gross of non- controlling interests and tax £m |
Net of non- controlling interests and tax £m |
Gross of non- controlling interests and tax £m |
Value of new business - continuing operations |
505 |
746 |
517 |
820 |
Value of new business - discontinued operations |
(182) |
(280) |
(85) |
(130) |
Value of new business |
323 |
466 |
432 |
690 |
|
|
|
|
|
Life and pensions operating return - continuing operations |
1,316 |
2,206 |
1,931 |
2,888 |
Life and pensions operating return - discontinued operations |
(246) |
(378) |
262 |
511 |
Life and pensions operating return |
1,070 |
1,828 |
2,193 |
3,399 |
|
|
|
|
|
Life and pensions earnings - continuing operations |
2,034 |
4,065 |
(642) |
(2,407) |
Life and pensions earnings - discontinued operations |
(251) |
(387) |
(695) |
(1,083) |
Life and pensions earnings |
1,783 |
3,678 |
(1,337) |
(3,490) |
Page 22
E9 -Present value of life new business premiums
The tables below set out the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) written by the life and related businesses, gross of tax and non-controlling interests. The PVNBP calculation is equal to total single premium sales received in the period plus the discounted value of regular premiums expected to be received over the term of the new contracts, and is expressed at the point of sale.
The premium volumes and projection assumptions used to calculate the present value of regular premiums for each product
are the same as those used to calculate the value of new business, so the components of the new business margin are on a
consistent basis.
The weighted average capitalisation factor (WACF) is the multiple of the annualised regular premium which gives the present value at point of sale of the regular premiums.
Gross of non-controlling interests 2012 |
Regular premiums £m |
WACF |
Present value of regular premiums £m |
Single premiums £m |
Present value of new business premiums £m |
United Kingdom |
771 |
4.9 |
3,793 |
6,617 |
10,410 |
Ireland |
33 |
3.8 |
127 |
505 |
632 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
804 |
4.9 |
3,920 |
7,122 |
11,042 |
France |
74 |
7.9 |
584 |
3,054 |
3,638 |
Spain |
67 |
5.6 |
375 |
920 |
1,295 |
Italy |
54 |
5.9 |
317 |
1,654 |
1,971 |
Other |
7 |
8.9 |
62 |
97 |
159 |
Developed markets |
1,006 |
5.2 |
5,258 |
12,847 |
18,105 |
Poland |
36 |
7.3 |
261 |
112 |
373 |
Asia |
282 |
5.3 |
1,482 |
283 |
1,765 |
Other |
79 |
3.7 |
290 |
113 |
403 |
Higher growth markets |
397 |
5.1 |
2,033 |
508 |
2,541 |
Total life and pensions - continuing operations |
1,403 |
5.2 |
7,291 |
13,355 |
20,646 |
Total life and pensions - discontinued operations1 |
130 |
11.1 |
1,440 |
2,599 |
4,039 |
Total life and pensions |
1,533 |
5.7 |
8,731 |
15,954 |
24,685 |
1 Represents the results of the United States.
Gross of non-controlling interests 2011 |
Regular premiums £m |
WACF |
Present value of regular premiums £m |
Single premiums £m |
Present value of new business premiums £m |
United Kingdom |
766 |
4.9 |
3,776 |
7,478 |
11,254 |
Ireland |
53 |
3.9 |
205 |
712 |
917 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
819 |
4.9 |
3,981 |
8,190 |
12,171 |
France |
81 |
6.7 |
540 |
3,507 |
4,047 |
Spain |
92 |
5.4 |
501 |
1,425 |
1,926 |
Italy |
58 |
5.4 |
316 |
2,677 |
2,993 |
Other |
19 |
8.8 |
168 |
94 |
262 |
Developed markets |
1,069 |
5.2 |
5,506 |
15,893 |
21,399 |
Poland |
50 |
7.3 |
367 |
120 |
487 |
Asia |
295 |
4.9 |
1,444 |
338 |
1,782 |
Other |
68 |
3.6 |
246 |
74 |
320 |
Higher growth markets |
413 |
5.0 |
2,057 |
532 |
2,589 |
Total life and pensions - continuing operations |
1,482 |
5.1 |
7,563 |
16,425 |
23,988 |
Total life and pensions - discontinued operations1 |
182 |
9.6 |
1,751 |
3,266 |
5,017 |
Total life and pensions |
1,664 |
5.6 |
9,314 |
19,691 |
29,005 |
1 Represents the results of the United States and the results of Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
Page 23
E10 - Geographical analysis of value of new business
The tables below set out the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) written by the life and related businesses, the value of the new business and the resulting margin, firstly gross and then net of tax and non-controlling interests. The value generated by new business written during the period is the present value of the projected stream of after-tax distributable profit from that business, including expected profit between point of sale and the valuation date. It reflects the additional value to shareholders created through the activity of writing new business including the impacts of interactions between in force and new business with the exception of tax as noted in the basis of preparation. The value of new business has been calculated using economic assumptions at the point of sale which has been implemented with the assumptions being taken as those appropriate to the start of each quarter. For contracts that are re-priced more frequently, weekly or monthly economic assumptions have been used. The operating assumptions are consistent with those used to determine the embedded value. The value of new business is shown after the effect of the frictional costs of holding required capital, and after the effect of the costs of residual non-hedgeable risks on the same basis as for the in-force covered business.
|
Present value of new business premiums |
Value of new business |
New business margin |
Gross of tax and non-controlling interest |
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
2012 % |
2011 % |
United Kingdom |
10,410 |
11,254 |
420 |
380 |
4.0% |
3.4% |
Ireland |
632 |
917 |
(8) |
(4) |
(1.3)% |
(0.4)% |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
11,042 |
12,171 |
412 |
376 |
3.7% |
3.1% |
France |
3,638 |
4,047 |
119 |
142 |
3.3% |
3.5% |
Spain |
1,295 |
1,926 |
56 |
86 |
4.3% |
4.5% |
Italy |
1,971 |
2,993 |
29 |
75 |
1.5% |
2.5% |
Other |
159 |
262 |
- |
5 |
- |
1.9% |
Developed markets |
18,105 |
21,399 |
616 |
684 |
3.4% |
3.2% |
Poland |
373 |
487 |
35 |
45 |
9.4% |
9.2% |
Asia |
1,765 |
1,782 |
63 |
71 |
3.6% |
4.0% |
Other |
403 |
320 |
32 |
20 |
7.9% |
6.3% |
Higher growth markets |
2,541 |
2,589 |
130 |
136 |
5.1% |
5.3% |
Total life and pensions - continuing operations |
20,646 |
23,988 |
746 |
820 |
3.6% |
3.4% |
Total life and pensions - discontinued operations1 |
4,039 |
5,017 |
(280) |
(130) |
(6.9)% |
(2.6)% |
Total life and pensions |
24,685 |
29,005 |
466 |
690 |
1.9% |
2.4% |
1 Current period represents the results of the United States and prior period represents the results of the United States and Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
|
Present value of new business premiums |
Value of new business |
New business margin |
Net of tax and non-controlling interest |
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
2012 % |
2011 % |
United Kingdom |
10,410 |
11,254 |
319 |
281 |
3.1% |
2.5% |
Ireland |
474 |
688 |
(6) |
(3) |
(1.3)% |
(0.4)% |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
10,884 |
11,942 |
313 |
278 |
2.9% |
2.3% |
France |
2,996 |
3,376 |
67 |
79 |
2.2% |
2.3% |
Spain |
719 |
1,054 |
15 |
28 |
2.1% |
2.7% |
Italy |
841 |
1,336 |
8 |
23 |
1.0% |
1.7% |
Other |
158 |
262 |
- |
4 |
- |
1.5% |
Developed markets |
15,598 |
17,970 |
403 |
412 |
2.6% |
2.3% |
Poland |
339 |
440 |
26 |
34 |
7.7% |
7.7% |
Asia |
1,748 |
1,756 |
50 |
55 |
2.9% |
3.1% |
Other |
403 |
320 |
26 |
16 |
6.5% |
5.0% |
Higher growth markets |
2,490 |
2,516 |
102 |
105 |
4.1% |
4.2% |
Total life and pensions - continuing operations |
18,088 |
20,486 |
505 |
517 |
2.8% |
2.5% |
Total life and pensions - discontinued operations1 |
4,039 |
4,531 |
(182) |
(85) |
(4.5)% |
(1.9)% |
Total life and pensions |
22,127 |
25,017 |
323 |
432 |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1 Current period represents the results of the United States and prior period represents the results of the United States and Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
Page 24
E11 - Post-tax internal rate of return and payback period on life and pensions new business
The new business written requires up-front capital investment due to high set-up costs and capital requirements. The internal rate of return (IRR) is a measure of the shareholder return expected on this capital investment. It is equivalent to the discount rate at which the present value of the post-tax cash flows expected to be earned over the lifetime of the business written, including allowance for the time value of options and guarantees, is equal to the total invested capital to support the writing of the business. The capital included in the calculation of the IRR is the initial capital required to pay acquisition costs and set up statutory reserves in excess of premiums received (initial capital), plus required capital at the same level as for the calculation of the value of new business.
The payback period shows how quickly shareholders can expect the total capital to be repaid. The payback period has been calculated based on undiscounted cash flows and allows for the initial and required capital.
The projected investment returns in both the IRR and payback period calculations assume that equities, properties and bonds earn a return in excess of risk-free consistent with the long-term rate of return assumed in operating earnings.
The IRR on life and pensions new business excluding United States for the year was 14.9% (2011: 14.5% excluding Delta Lloyd and United States).
Gross of non-controlling interests 2012 |
Internal rate of return % |
Initial capital £m |
Required capital £m |
Total invested capital £m |
New business impact on free surplus |
Payback period years |
United Kingdom |
18% |
112 |
164 |
276 |
6 |
6 |
Ireland |
2% |
31 |
10 |
41 |
31 |
25 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
16% |
143 |
174 |
317 |
37 |
8 |
France |
11% |
33 |
113 |
146 |
125 |
8 |
Spain |
21% |
21 |
42 |
63 |
35 |
4 |
Italy |
12% |
20 |
69 |
89 |
41 |
6 |
Other |
8% |
12 |
1 |
13 |
15 |
10 |
Developed markets |
15% |
229 |
399 |
628 |
253 |
8 |
Poland |
20% |
20 |
8 |
28 |
25 |
4 |
Asia |
11% |
60 |
29 |
89 |
82 |
11 |
Other |
28% |
17 |
15 |
32 |
29 |
3 |
Higher growth markets |
16% |
97 |
52 |
149 |
136 |
8 |
Total - excluding United States |
14.9% |
326 |
451 |
777 |
389 |
8 |
Total - United States |
17% |
24 |
292 |
316 |
319 |
4 |
Total |
15.5% |
350 |
743 |
1,093 |
708 |
7 |
Gross of non-controlling interests 2011 |
Internal rate of return % |
Initial capital £m |
Required capital £m |
Total invested capital £m |
New business impact on free surplus |
Payback period years |
United Kingdom |
15% |
155 |
187 |
342 |
89 |
7 |
Ireland |
6% |
27 |
22 |
49 |
38 |
12 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
14% |
182 |
209 |
391 |
127 |
8 |
France |
11% |
45 |
127 |
172 |
153 |
8 |
Spain |
23% |
25 |
70 |
95 |
50 |
4 |
Italy |
12% |
24 |
117 |
141 |
66 |
6 |
Other |
9% |
25 |
1 |
26 |
25 |
8 |
Developed markets |
14% |
301 |
524 |
825 |
421 |
7 |
Poland |
24% |
25 |
9 |
34 |
30 |
4 |
Asia |
13% |
56 |
31 |
87 |
80 |
12 |
Other |
22% |
15 |
12 |
27 |
27 |
4 |
Higher growth markets |
17% |
96 |
52 |
148 |
137 |
9 |
Total - excluding Delta Lloyd and United States |
14.5% |
397 |
576 |
973 |
558 |
7 |
Total - Delta Lloyd1 and United States |
14% |
53 |
328 |
381 |
376 |
6 |
Total |
14.3% |
450 |
904 |
1,354 |
934 |
7 |
1 Includes the results of Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
In Ireland, the closure of Ark Life to new business in the first half of 2012 has adversely impacted IRR and payback period as current expenses are spread over a smaller volume of business.
Total invested capital is gross of non-controlling interests and valued on a point of sale basis. This differs from the new business impact on the free surplus which is stated net of non-controlling interests, valued on a year-end basis and benefits from the writing of new business in the UK Life RIEESA. The reconciliation is as follows:
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Total capital invested |
1,093 |
1,354 |
Non-controlling interests1 |
(112) |
(180) |
Benefit of RIEESA on new business funding in UK |
(220) |
(190) |
Timing differences (point of sale versus year end basis) 2 |
(53) |
(50) |
New business impact on free surplus |
708 |
934 |
1 Non controlling interests primarily in Italy and Spain
2 Timing differences across all markets
Page 25
E12 - Free surplus emergence
|
Existing business |
New business |
Total business |
Net of tax and non-controlling interest 2012 |
Transfer from VIF to net worth £m |
Return on net worth £m |
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth £m |
Release of required capital to free surplus £m |
Total existing business surplus generation £m |
Impact on net worth £m |
Reduction in free surplus from required capital £m |
Total new business surplus generation £m |
Total free surplus generation £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
364 |
85 |
194 |
67 |
710 |
(78) |
41 |
(37) |
673 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
321 |
61 |
68 |
111 |
561 |
(71) |
(145) |
(216) |
345 |
Developed markets |
685 |
146 |
262 |
178 |
1,271 |
(149) |
(104) |
(253) |
1,018 |
Higher growth markets |
202 |
23 |
62 |
57 |
344 |
(85) |
(51) |
(136) |
208 |
Total - continuing operations |
887 |
169 |
324 |
235 |
1,615 |
(234) |
(155) |
(389) |
1,226 |
Total - discontinued operations1 |
212 |
41 |
(167) |
274 |
360 |
(21) |
(298) |
(319) |
41 |
Total |
1,099 |
210 |
157 |
509 |
1,975 |
(255) |
(453) |
(708) |
1,267 |
1 Represent the results of the United States.
|
Existing business |
New business |
Total business |
Net of tax and non-controlling interest 2011 |
Transfer from VIF to net worth £m |
Return on net worth £m |
Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth £m |
Release of required capital to free surplus £m |
Total existing business surplus generation £m |
Impact on net worth £m |
Reduction in free surplus from required capital £m |
Total new business surplus generation £m |
Total free surplus generation £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
420 |
129 |
204 |
(72) |
681 |
(121) |
(6) |
(127) |
554 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
358 |
66 |
(18) |
195 |
601 |
(97) |
(197) |
(294) |
307 |
Developed markets |
778 |
195 |
186 |
123 |
1,282 |
(218) |
(203) |
(421) |
861 |
Higher growth markets |
192 |
21 |
37 |
7 |
257 |
(86) |
(51) |
(137) |
120 |
Total - continuing operations |
970 |
216 |
223 |
130 |
1,539 |
(304) |
(254) |
(558) |
981 |
Total - discontinued operations1 |
329 |
59 |
123 |
212 |
723 |
(57) |
(319) |
(376) |
347 |
Total |
1,299 |
275 |
346 |
342 |
2,262 |
(361) |
(573) |
(934) |
1,328 |
1 Represents the results of United States and the results of Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
E13 - Maturity profile of business
(a) Total in-force business
To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of VIF in the statements of financial position has been split into five-year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.
Net of non-controlling interest 2012 £m |
0-51 |
6-10 |
11-15 |
16-20 |
20+ |
Total |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
496 |
893 |
639 |
261 |
812 |
3,101 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
432 |
222 |
156 |
92 |
101 |
1,003 |
Developed markets |
928 |
1,115 |
795 |
353 |
913 |
4,104 |
Higher growth markets |
676 |
432 |
228 |
146 |
145 |
1,627 |
Total - excluding United States |
1,604 |
1,547 |
1,023 |
499 |
1,058 |
5,731 |
Total - United States |
(657) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(657) |
Total |
947 |
1,547 |
1,023 |
499 |
1,058 |
5,074 |
1 For held for sale operations, the VIF emergence is reported in the 0-5 column.
Net of non-controlling interest 2011 £m |
0-5 |
6-10 |
11-15 |
16-20 |
20+ |
Total |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
177 |
866 |
704 |
312 |
661 |
2,720 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
(94) |
125 |
130 |
76 |
48 |
285 |
Developed markets |
83 |
991 |
834 |
388 |
709 |
3,005 |
Higher growth markets |
600 |
332 |
177 |
106 |
107 |
1,322 |
Total - excluding United States |
683 |
1,323 |
1,011 |
494 |
816 |
4,327 |
Total - United States |
60 |
(624) |
(335) |
(144) |
(319) |
(1,362) |
Total |
743 |
699 |
676 |
350 |
497 |
2,965 |
Page 26
E13 - Maturity profile of business continued
(b) New business
To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of new business has been split into five-year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.
Net of non-controlling interest 2012 £m |
0-51 |
6-10 |
11-15 |
16-20 |
20+ |
Total |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
85 |
73 |
50 |
35 |
148 |
391 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
69 |
38 |
25 |
13 |
17 |
162 |
Developed markets |
154 |
111 |
75 |
48 |
165 |
553 |
Higher growth markets |
96 |
46 |
21 |
15 |
8 |
186 |
Total - continuing operations |
250 |
157 |
96 |
63 |
173 |
739 |
Total - discontinued operations2 |
(161) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(161) |
Total |
89 |
157 |
96 |
63 |
173 |
578 |
1 For held for sale operations, the VIF emergence is reported in the 0-5 column.
2 Represent the results of the United States.
Net of non-controlling interest 2011 £m |
0-5 |
6-10 |
11-15 |
16-20 |
20+ |
Total |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
104 |
61 |
36 |
26 |
172 |
399 |
Developed markets excluding United Kingdom & Ireland |
100 |
55 |
31 |
16 |
29 |
231 |
Developed markets |
204 |
116 |
67 |
42 |
201 |
630 |
Higher growth markets |
101 |
46 |
22 |
13 |
9 |
191 |
Total - continuing operations |
305 |
162 |
89 |
55 |
210 |
821 |
Total - discontinued operations1 |
35 |
(83) |
38 |
6 |
(24) |
(28) |
Total |
340 |
79 |
127 |
61 |
186 |
793 |
1 Represents the results of the United States and the results of Delta Lloyd up to 6 May 2011.
Page 27
E14 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value
Net of non-controlling interest 2012 £m |
Free surplus £m |
Required Capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
United Kingdom |
1,230 |
2,648 |
2,621 |
6,499 |
Ireland |
96 |
246 |
480 |
822 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
1,326 |
2,894 |
3,101 |
7,321 |
France |
80 |
2,106 |
984 |
3,170 |
Spain2 |
58 |
294 |
178 |
530 |
Italy2,3 |
(42) |
598 |
(172) |
384 |
Other |
40 |
12 |
13 |
65 |
Developed markets |
1,462 |
5,904 |
4,104 |
11,470 |
Poland |
161 |
113 |
1,282 |
1,556 |
Asia |
180 |
282 |
240 |
702 |
Other |
23 |
27 |
105 |
155 |
Higher growth markets |
364 |
422 |
1,627 |
2,413 |
Total - excluding United States |
1,826 |
6,326 |
5,731 |
13,883 |
Total - United States4 |
252 |
1,463 |
(657) |
1,058 |
Total |
2,078 |
7,789 |
5,074 |
14,941 |
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2 Required capital in Italy and Spain reflects the current economic environment and is in excess of regulatory requirements. The increase in Italy from full year 2011 results from a true-up of prior estimates.
3 Italy has a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
4 Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £708 million at 31 December 2012 has been included within non-covered business.
Net of non-controlling interest 2011 £m |
Free surplus £m |
Required Capital1 £m |
VIF £m |
Total MCEV £m |
United Kingdom |
1,036 |
2,859 |
2,320 |
6,215 |
Ireland |
40 |
343 |
400 |
783 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
1,076 |
3,202 |
2,720 |
6,998 |
France2 |
(145) |
2,048 |
800 |
2,703 |
Spain |
118 |
227 |
105 |
450 |
Italy3 |
8 |
499 |
(658) |
(151) |
Other |
39 |
21 |
38 |
98 |
Developed markets |
1,096 |
5,997 |
3,005 |
10,098 |
Poland |
131 |
102 |
929 |
1,162 |
Asia |
98 |
270 |
300 |
668 |
Other |
30 |
21 |
93 |
144 |
Higher growth markets |
259 |
393 |
1,322 |
1,974 |
Total - excluding United States |
1,355 |
6,390 |
4,327 |
12,072 |
Total - United States2,4 |
(11) |
1,575 |
(1,362) |
202 |
Total |
1,344 |
7,965 |
2,965 |
12,274 |
1 Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.
2 France and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.
3 Negative MCEV in Italy results from widening of spreads on sovereign debt over the year.
4 Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £736 million at 31 December 2011 has been included within non-covered business.
The required capital across our life businesses varies between 100% and 325% of EU minimum or equivalent. The weighted average level of required capital for our life business expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum (or equivalent) solvency margin has decreased to 134% (2011: 135%). These levels of required capital are used in the calculation of the Group's embedded value to evaluate the cost of locked in capital. At 31 December 2012 the aggregate regulatory requirements based on the EU minimum test amounted to £5.8 billion (2011: £5.9 billion). At this date, the actual net worth held in our long-term business, was £9.9 billion
(2011: £9.3 billion) which represents 170% (2011: 158%) of these minimum requirements.
Page 28
E15 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)
Within the VIF in the tables, there are additional allowances for risks not included within the basic present value of future
profits calculation.
Net of non-controlling interest 2012 £m |
PVFP £m |
Frictional costs £m |
Non- hedgeable risks £m |
Time value of financial options and guarantees £m |
VIF £m |
United Kingdom |
3,334 |
(241) |
(436) |
(36) |
2,621 |
Ireland |
512 |
(8) |
(24) |
- |
480 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
3,846 |
(249) |
(460) |
(36) |
3,101 |
France |
2,050 |
(105) |
(225) |
(736) |
984 |
Spain |
241 |
(5) |
(39) |
(19) |
178 |
Italy |
(96) |
(7) |
(34) |
(35) |
(172) |
Other |
14 |
- |
(1) |
- |
13 |
Developed markets |
6,055 |
(366) |
(759) |
(826) |
4,104 |
Poland |
1,545 |
(8) |
(244) |
(11) |
1,282 |
Asia |
427 |
(31) |
(89) |
(67) |
240 |
Other |
108 |
(1) |
(2) |
- |
105 |
Higher growth markets |
2,080 |
(40) |
(335) |
(78) |
1,627 |
Total - excluding United States |
8,135 |
(406) |
(1,094) |
(904) |
5,731 |
Total - United States |
(50) |
(141) |
(158) |
(308) |
(657) |
Total |
8,085 |
(547) |
(1,252) |
(1,212) |
5,074 |
The Time Value of Options and Guarantees has become less negative by £198 million to £1,212 million, reflecting positive impacts from economic movements, in particular the reduction in swaption volatilities, and revisions to dynamic policyholder behaviour in the United States, partly offset by refinements to stochastic modelling in France.
The allowance for non-hedgeable risks has become more negative by £307 million, reflecting an increased level of capital related to non-hedgeable risks.
Net of non-controlling interest 2011 £m |
PVFP £m |
Frictional costs £m |
Non- hedgeable risks £m |
Time value of financial options and guarantees £m |
VIF £m |
United Kingdom |
2,977 |
(241) |
(389) |
(27) |
2,320 |
Ireland |
439 |
(14) |
(22) |
(3) |
400 |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
3,416 |
(255) |
(411) |
(30) |
2,720 |
France |
1,721 |
(147) |
(182) |
(592) |
800 |
Spain |
176 |
(12) |
(45) |
(14) |
105 |
Italy |
(550) |
(3) |
(20) |
(85) |
(658) |
Other |
47 |
(1) |
(6) |
(2) |
38 |
Developed markets |
4,810 |
(418) |
(664) |
(723) |
3,005 |
Poland |
1,088 |
(11) |
(145) |
(3) |
929 |
Asia |
455 |
(26) |
(67) |
(62) |
300 |
Other |
96 |
(1) |
(2) |
- |
93 |
Higher growth markets |
1,639 |
(38) |
(214) |
(65) |
1,322 |
Total - excluding United States |
6,449 |
(456) |
(878) |
(788) |
4,327 |
Total - United States |
(513) |
(160) |
(67) |
(622) |
(1,362) |
Total |
5,936 |
(616) |
(945) |
(1,410) |
2,965 |
Page 29
E16 - Implied discount rates (IDR)
In the valuation of a block of business, the IDR is the rate of discount such that a traditional embedded value calculation for the covered business equates to the MCEV.
The cash flows projected are the expected future cash flows including expected investment cash flows from equities, bonds and properties earning a risk premium in excess of risk free, statutory reserves and required capital. The risk premiums used are consistent with those used in the expected existing business contribution within operating earnings. As the risk premiums are positive, a discount rate higher than risk-free is required to give a value equal to the market-consistent embedded value.
Average derived risk discount rates are shown below for the embedded value.
|
2012 % |
2011 % |
United Kingdom |
7.2% |
9.3% |
Ireland1 |
1.9% |
4.1% |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
6.4% |
8.5% |
France |
6.7% |
7.9% |
Spain1 |
12.9% |
15.0% |
Italy2 |
13.4% |
n/a |
Other |
3.1% |
4.3% |
Developed markets |
7.5% |
n/a |
Poland |
5.2% |
6.5% |
Asia1 |
5.6% |
5.2% |
Other |
6.6% |
9.1% |
Higher growth markets |
5.4% |
6.3% |
Total - excluding United States |
7.2% |
n/a |
Total - United States1,2 |
n/a |
n/a |
Total |
n/a |
n/a |
1 IDRs have been calculated excluding held for sale operations in 2012, reflecting that they are stated at expected fair value less cost to sell.
2 Where there is significant difference in projected real world and risk neutral profits and the value of the in force business plus required capital is negative or close to zero, the IDR is not well defined and consequently IDR is not meaningful.
E17 - Summary of non-controlling interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results
2012 |
Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Developed markets £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Total £m |
Share-holders' Interest £m |
Group £m |
Value of new business after tax |
(2) |
12 |
24 |
10 |
44 |
4 |
48 |
323 |
371 |
Life MCEV operating earnings after tax |
13 |
36 |
79 |
154 |
282 |
32 |
314 |
1,070 |
1,384 |
Life MCEV earnings after tax |
15 |
75 |
60 |
626 |
776 |
60 |
836 |
1,783 |
2,619 |
Closing covered businesses' embedded value |
272 |
280 |
406 |
381 |
1,339 |
217 |
1,556 |
14,941 |
16,497 |
2011 |
Ireland £m |
France £m |
Spain £m |
Italy £m |
Developed markets £m |
Higher growth markets £m |
Delta Lloyd £m |
Total £m |
Share-holders' Interest £m |
Group £m |
Value of new business after tax |
(1) |
15 |
32 |
27 |
73 |
5 |
- |
78 |
432 |
510 |
Life MCEV operating earnings/ (losses) after tax |
(10) |
25 |
49 |
28 |
92 |
40 |
94 |
226 |
2,193 |
2,419 |
Life MCEV (losses)/earnings after tax |
(29) |
(16) |
(8) |
(928) |
(981) |
44 |
(13) |
(950) |
(1,337) |
(2,287) |
Closing covered businesses' embedded value |
266 |
214 |
405 |
(244) |
641 |
179 |
- |
820 |
12,274 |
13,094 |
Non-controlling interest in life and related businesses is not impacted by the treatment of held for sale operations. There are no non-controlling interests in the United Kingdom or United States.
Page 30
E18 - Principal assumptions
(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations
Economic assumptions are derived actively, based on market yields on risk-free fixed interest assets at the end of each reporting period.
In setting the risk-free rate we have, wherever possible, used the mid-price swap yield curve for an AA-rated bank. The curve is extrapolated beyond the last available market data point to an ultimate forward rate using the Nelson-Siegel functional form if necessary. For markets in which there is no reliable swap yield curve, the relevant government bond yields are used. For certain business, swap rates are adjusted for a 'liquidity premium' in deriving the risk free rates, and these adjustments are shown below the reference rate table.
Required capital is shown as a multiple of the EU statutory minimum solvency margin or equivalent.
The principal economic assumptions used are as follows:
Reference rate (spot, swap rates) and expense inflation
United Kingdom |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Reference rate |
|
|
|
1 year |
0.6% |
1.2% |
1.0% |
5 years |
1.0% |
1.6% |
2.7% |
10 years |
1.9% |
2.3% |
3.7% |
15 years |
2.6% |
2.8% |
4.1% |
20 years |
2.9% |
3.0% |
4.2% |
Expense inflation |
2.8% |
2.8% |
3.3% |
Eurozone |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Reference rate |
|
|
|
1 year |
0.3% |
1.4% |
1.3% |
5 years |
0.8% |
1.7% |
2.5% |
10 years |
1.6% |
2.4% |
3.4% |
15 years |
2.1% |
2.8% |
3.8% |
20 years |
2.3% |
2.8% |
3.8% |
Expense inflation1 |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
1 Based on France, the largest Eurozone business
Poland |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Reference rate |
|
|
|
1 year |
3.4% |
4.9% |
4.4% |
5 years |
3.4% |
4.8% |
5.5% |
10 years |
3.5% |
5.0% |
5.7% |
15 years |
3.4% |
4.7% |
5.4% |
20 years |
3.2% |
4.3% |
5.1% |
Expense inflation |
2.1% |
2.9% |
3.0% |
United States |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Reference rate |
|
|
|
1 year |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
5 years |
0.9% |
1.2% |
2.2% |
10 years |
1.9% |
2.1% |
3.5% |
15 years |
2.4% |
2.5% |
4.0% |
20 years |
2.7% |
2.6% |
4.2% |
Expense inflation |
2.0% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
For service companies, expense inflation relates to the underlying expenses rather than the fees charged to the life company.
Page 31
E18 - Principal assumptions continued
The following adjustments are made to the swap rate for immediate annuity type contracts and for all contracts for Aviva USA.
The risk-free rate is taken as the swap yield curve for the currency of the liability, adjusted by adding the following to each swap rate:
|
New business |
Embedded value |
|
4Q 2012 |
3Q 2012 |
2Q 2012 |
1Q 2012 |
4Q 2011 |
3Q 2011 |
2Q 2011 |
1Q 2011 |
2012 |
2011 |
UK immediate annuities |
1.19% |
1.49% |
1.46% |
1.34% |
1.27% |
1.20% |
1.00% |
1.14% |
1.30% |
1.30% |
UK bulk purchase annuities |
1.19% |
1.49% |
1.46% |
1.34% |
1.36% |
1.38% |
0.65% |
0.72% |
1.30% |
1.30% |
France |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
0.44% |
1.18% |
Spain |
0.13% |
0.09% |
0.28% |
0.35% |
0.96% |
0.33% |
0.31% |
0.36% |
0.30% |
0.88% |
US immediate annuities |
0.83% |
0.95% |
1.00% |
1.26% |
1.28% |
0.59% |
0.57% |
0.66% |
0.91% |
1.33% |
US deferred annuities and all other contracts |
0.70% |
0.81% |
0.84% |
1.07% |
1.09% |
0.51% |
0.49% |
0.56% |
0.77% |
1.13% |
The approach to estimating the market level of liquidity premium in corporate bond assets is consistent with the formula structure proposed by CFO/CRO Forum and adopted in the Solvency II Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS5).
The formula is:
United Kingdom/Europe: 50% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)
USA: 60% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)
For assets valued on a marked to model basis (e.g., commercial mortgages), the liquidity premium is consistent with the underlying model valuation.
Adjustments are made where liabilities are not fully backed by assets earning a liquidity premium and for contracts that are exposed to some lapse risk (15% reduction to the market level liquidity premium). There has been no change to the types of contracts to which a liquidity premium is applied.
Risk premium - used for operating profit, Implied Discount Rates (IDR), Internal Rates of Return (IRR) and payback period
For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The normalised investment returns are
expressed as a swap rate based on the typical duration of the assets held plus an asset risk premium. More detail is given in note
E1 - Basis of preparation.
The use of asset risk premia only impacts operating earnings as expected returns reflect management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the reference rate from investing in different asset classes. This assumption does not impact the embedded value or value of new business as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned. The asset risk premia set out in the table below
are added to the ten year swap rate to calculate expected returns.
All territories |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
Equity risk premium |
3.5% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
Property risk premium |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
Future returns on fixed interest investments are calculated from prospective yields less an adjustment for credit risk.
Required capital and tax
|
Tax rates5 |
Required capital (% EU minimum or equivalent) |
|
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2012 |
2011 |
United Kingdom1 |
23.0% |
25.0% |
27.0% |
100%/200% |
100%/200% |
Ireland2 |
12.5% |
12.5% |
12.5% |
174%/180% |
174%/180% |
France |
34.4% |
34.4% |
34.4% |
107.5% |
107.5% |
United States |
35.0% |
35.0% |
35.0% |
325% |
325% |
Spain3 |
30.0% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
177% |
132% |
Italy4 |
34.3% |
34.3% |
32.4% |
243% |
195% |
Poland |
19.0% |
19.0% |
19.0% |
125.5% |
125.5% |
1 The required capital in the United Kingdom under MCEV is 100% for unit-linked and other non-participating business and annuity business with 200% for BPA business. In addition, the reattribution of the inherited estate has led to additional capital being locked in to support the with-profit business, and this has been included within required capital.
2 Required capital in Ireland under MCEV is 174% for bancassurance and 180% for retail business.
3 This is the aggregate required capital for in force business in Spain. It increases in 2012 reflecting the current economic environment.
4 This is the aggregate required capital level for in force business in Italy and reflects the current economic environment. It has increased from 2011 due to a true up of prior estimates. New business metrics continue to use management target levels of required capital (115%-165% of EU minimum), which better reflects the capital requirements of the new business
5 Current tax legislation and rates have been assumed to continue unaltered except where changes in future tax rates have been substantively enacted.
The reduction in the UK corporation tax rate to 23% was substantively enacted on 3 July 2012 and will apply from 1 April 2013. This is considered a known future change for MCEV purposes and has been reflected in the Group's MCEV net assets as at 31 December 2012.
As announced in the 2012 Autumn Statement, the rate is expected to reduce further to 21% from 1 April 2014. The benefit to the Group's MCEV net assets from the further 2% reduction in the rate from 23% to 21% is estimated at approximately £90 million and is not reflected in the Group's MCEV net assets as at 31 December 2012.
The UK Finance Act 2012 also included initial legislation introducing considerable changes to the regime for taxing UK life insurance companies applicable from 1 January 2013. These changes are considered to be known future changes for MCEV purposes and do not have a material impact on the Group's MCEV net assets as at 31 December 2012.
Page 32
E18 - Principal assumptions continued
Other economic assumptions
Required capital relating to with-profit business is generally assumed to be covered by the surplus within the with-profit funds and no effect has been attributed to shareholders. Where the fund is insufficient and additional shareholder support is required, this is included within required capital, including the RIEESA in the UK. Bonus rates on participating business have been set at levels consistent with the economic assumptions. The distribution of profit between policyholders and shareholders within the with-profit funds assumes that the shareholder interest in conventional with-profit business in the UK and Ireland continues at the current rate of one-ninth of the cost of bonus.
(b) Economic assumptions - Stochastic calculations
The calculation of time value of options and guarantees allows for expected management and policyholder actions in response to varying future investment conditions. The management actions modelled include changes to asset mix, bonus rates and rates of interest and other guarantees granted to policyholders. Modelled policyholder actions are described under 'Non-economic assumptions'.
Model - United States and United Kingdom
Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model Plus (LMM+), which projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals.
Forward rates are assumed to have a distribution that lies between the log-normal and normal distributions. Although this no longer guarantees non-negative interest rates, it maintains interest rates within a more plausible range than the standard Libor Market Model, and gives a better fit to certain swaption volatility surfaces. The model is calibrated to volatilities for swaptions for ten year swaps for a range of option terms and strike rates. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. In the case of the United States, an adjustment is made to the starting reference rate as described above. After making this adjustment the interest rate model is calibrated to the swaption implied volatilities supplied by SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.
The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. For the US, this excess return is modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. For the UK, a stochastic volatility jump defusion model is used, which allows for varying levels of volatility over time and across strike prices. Option volatilities are taken from Markit.
The model also generates property total returns and real yield curves, which are significant asset classes for the UK only. In the absence of liquid market data, the property volatilities are based on historic data.
Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.
Model - Other Developed and Higher Growth markets
Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model (LMM) that projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution which guarantees non-negative interest rates. The model is calibrated to at-the-money swaptions of a variety of terms and tenors. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed
to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.
The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is generally modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. Option volatilities are taken
from Markit.
Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.
Asset classes
The significant asset classes for UK participating business are equities, property and long-term fixed rate bonds. The most significant assumptions are the distribution of future long-term interest rates (nominal and real) and swaption implied volatilities.
For many businesses, including US and France, the most important assets are fixed rate bonds of various durations.
Summary statistics
Swaption implied volatilities
The implied volatility is that determined by Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table
sets out the swaption implied volatilities.
|
2012 Swap length |
2011 Swap length |
Option length |
10 years |
15 years |
20 years |
25 years |
10 years |
15 years |
20 years |
25 years |
UK sterling |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
17.1% |
16.4% |
16.0% |
15.7% |
18.0% |
16.8% |
16.1% |
15.6% |
15 years |
15.2% |
14.8% |
14.2% |
13.9% |
16.2% |
15.4% |
14.8% |
14.1% |
20 years |
14.8% |
14.1% |
13.4% |
13.1% |
15.3% |
14.5% |
13.8% |
13.1% |
25 years |
14.9% |
14.1% |
13.5% |
13.1% |
15.4% |
14.3% |
13.5% |
12.8% |
Euro |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
24.6% |
24.0% |
23.5% |
23.1% |
27.3% |
28.1% |
28.7% |
28.4% |
15 years |
25.5% |
24.2% |
22.7% |
21.8% |
31.6% |
30.9% |
29.3% |
28.1% |
20 years |
25.7% |
23.0% |
20.9% |
20.1% |
38.2% |
32.6% |
29.2% |
27.7% |
25 years |
23.6% |
20.5% |
18.8% |
18.2% |
35.0% |
29.1% |
26.3% |
25.2% |
US dollar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 years |
23.0% |
21.6% |
21.2% |
21.5% |
30.4% |
29.3% |
28.4% |
28.3% |
15 years |
21.9% |
20.1% |
20.1% |
20.8% |
30.1% |
28.1% |
27.4% |
27.7% |
20 years |
20.4% |
19.0% |
18.8% |
19.4% |
27.5% |
26.5% |
26.9% |
27.6% |
25 years |
20.4% |
20.0% |
20.4% |
20.9% |
28.0% |
27.9% |
29.5% |
30.4% |
Page 33
E18 - Principal assumptions continued
Equity implied volatilities
The implied volatility is that determined by the Black-Scholes formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table sets out the equity implied volatilities.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
2011 |
Option length |
UK |
Ireland |
France |
US |
Spain |
Italy |
UK |
Ireland |
France |
US |
Spain |
Italy |
5 years |
23.4% |
24.6% |
24.6% |
23.9% |
27.4% |
24.6% |
25.8% |
27.5% |
27.5% |
28.9% |
30.4% |
31.9% |
10 years |
26.3% |
24.7% |
24.7% |
26.6% |
28.0% |
24.7% |
27.2% |
27.9% |
27.9% |
31.0% |
30.1% |
31.5% |
15 years |
26.8% |
25.0% |
25.0% |
27.7% |
28.2% |
25.0% |
27.1% |
29.4% |
29.4% |
31.2% |
31.6% |
33.0% |
Property implied volatilities
Best estimate levels of volatility have been used in the absence of meaningful option prices from which implied levels of volatility can be derived.
For the UK, model property implied volatility is 15% for 31 December 2012 (31 December 2011: 15%).
(c) Non-economic assumptions
Demographic assumptions
Assumed future mortality, morbidity and lapse rates have been derived from an analysis of Aviva's recent operating experience with
a view to giving a best estimate of future experience. We have anticipated future changes in experience where that is appropriate,
e.g. we have allowed for improvements in future policyholder longevity.
We have set the assumptions based on a best estimate of shareholder outcomes. In particular, where the policyholder behaviour varies with economic experience, we have set assumptions which are dynamic, i.e. vary depending on the economic assumptions.
For example, surrender and option take up rate assumptions that vary according to the investment scenario under consideration have been used in the calculation of the time value of options and guarantees, based on our assessment of likely policyholder behaviour
in different investment scenarios.
Additionally, where demographic experience is not driven by economic scenarios but is asymmetric on a stand-alone basis, the best estimate assumption considers the weighted-average expected experience, not simply the median or most likely outcome.
Notwithstanding that certain operations have been classified as held for sale, the Aviva Ireland and Aviva Spain demographic and expense assumptions have been set assuming the businesses do not incur diseconomies of scale.
In 2010, a test case was taken to the European Court of Justice to rule on the current law and practice whereby insurers may take into account a person's gender in the assessment of risk and consequently the pricing of insurance products. The ruling was issued on 1 March 2011 and required gender equality for pricing from 21 December 2012. The impact of the ruling on the Group's MCEV net assets in our UK and European businesses is not considered to be material.
Expense assumptions
Management expenses and operating expenses of holding companies attributed to life and related businesses have been included in the MCEV calculations and split between expenses relating to the acquisition of new business, the maintenance of business in-force and project expenses. Future expense assumptions include an allowance for maintenance expenses and a proportion of recurring project expenses. Certain expenses of an exceptional nature, when they occur, are identified separately and are generally charged
as incurred. No future productivity gains have been anticipated.
Where subsidiary companies provide administration, investment management or other services to our life businesses, the value
of profits or losses arising from these services have been included in the embedded value and value of new business.
Non-hedgeable risk
For the balance sheet and operating profit, a charge of 3.6% (2011: 3.3%) has been applied to the group-diversified capital required on a 1-in-200 one-year basis over the remaining lifetime of in-force business. The charge is set so as to give an aggregate allowance that is in excess of the expected operational risk costs arising from the in-force covered business over its remaining lifetime. The increase in the charge results from a reassessment of the group diversification benefit.
The capital levels used are projected to be sufficient to cover non-hedgeable risks at the 99.5% confidence level one-year after the valuation date. The capital is equal to the capital from the ICA results for those risks considered including allowance for management actions consistent with the base MCEV. Diversification benefits are included between non-hedgeable risks of the covered business. No diversification benefit is assumed with hedgeable risks of the covered business or with non-covered business in general. The capital has been projected as running off over the remaining life of the in-force portfolio in line with the drivers of the capital requirement.
In addition to the operational risk allowance, financial non-hedgeable risks and other product level asymmetries have been allowed for. These allowances are not material as significant financial non-hedgeable risks and product level asymmetries are either modelled explicitly and included in the TVOG or are included in the PVFP through the use of appropriate best estimate assumptions.
Other
It has been assumed that there will be no changes to the methods and bases used to calculate the statutory technical provisions and current surrender values, except where driven by varying future investment conditions under stochastic economic scenarios.
Page 34
E18 - Principal assumptions continued
(d) Held for sale operations
Certain operations are considered held for sale, consistent with the IFRS classification.
US long term business
On 8 November 2012 the Group confirmed it was in discussions with external parties with respect to its US life operations, consisting of Aviva Life and Annuity Company and the associated internal asset management operations of Aviva Investors North America, Inc ("US Life") and these have been classified as held for sale. On 21 December 2012 the Group announced that it had agreed to sell US Life to Athene Holding Ltd for consideration of £1.0 billion including the shareholder loan (£1.1 billion including repayment of external loan). There is uncertainty in the ultimate consideration which depends on the development of statutory surplus between the announcement of sale and ultimate completion date. The transaction is expected to complete in 2013. Following classification as held for sale, US Life segment has been remeasured to fair value less costs to sell resulting in an increase to the closing MCEV at 31 December 2012 of £1,095 million.
Spanish long-term business - Aseval
On 18 December 2012 Aviva reached a settlement with Bankia S.A. ("Bankia") to transfer the Group's entire holding in Aseval Aseguradora Valenciana, Sociedad Anónima de Seguros y Reaseguros ("Aseval"), a Spanish life assurance company, to Bankia. Aseval was classified as held for sale at this date. The transfer is expected to complete on or before 30 April 2013 with proceeds of £494 million. Following classification as held for sale, Aseval, included within the 'Italy, Spain and Other' operating segment, has been remeasured to fair value less costs to sell resulting in an increase to the closing MCEV at 31 December 2012 of £127 million.
Irish long-term business - Ark Life
Our Irish long-term business is carried out through a subsidiary, Aviva Life Holdings Ireland Limited ("ALHI"), which is 75% owned by Aviva and 25% owned by Allied Irish Bank ("AIB"). ALHI holds four subsidiaries, one of which is Ark Life Assurance Company Limited ("Ark Life") which carries out bancassurance business via a distribution agreement with AIB. The original distribution agreement was renewable in 2011 but, on 15 December 2011, AIB notified the Group that they did not wish to renew it and the existing shareholders' agreement governing ALHI was terminated.
The termination of this agreement triggered the ability for both parties to exercise put and call options that will result in the unwind of the original structure such that the Ark Life business returns 100% to AIB and the Group will purchase the 25% minority stake in ALHI. The formal exercise of these options was approved on 17 January 2012 and, as a result, the Ark Life business became held for sale on that date. Completion of the transaction is subject to agreement of terms with AIB and regulatory approval. Completion is expected in the next 12 months.
Management's current best estimate of the disposal proceeds for the Ark Life business is £232 million net of transaction costs and the current estimate of the liability in respect of the put options exercised in January2012 over AIB's non-controlling interest is £122 million. Following classification as held for sale, Ireland, included within the 'United Kingdom & Ireland' operating segment, has been remeasured to fair value less costs to sell resulting in an increase to the closing MCEV at 31 December 2012 of £20 million.
Malaysian long-term business
During 2012, the Group's Malaysian joint ventures, CIMB Aviva Assurance Berhad and CIMB Aviva Takaful Berhad, were classified as held for sale following the decision of management to seek to dispose of the business. On 17 January 2013 agreement was reached to sell Aviva's interests in these businesses to Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada. Upon receipt of regulatory approval the parties will work to close the proposed transaction during the first half of 2013. The expected proceeds of this transaction are £152 million.
Following classification as held for sale, these businesses, included within the 'Higher Growth Market' operating segment, have been remeasured to fair value less costs to sell resulting in an increase to the closing MCEV at 31 December 2012 of £28 million.
Other held for sale operations
During the year the Group entered into negotiations to dispose of Aviva Russia. On 27 February 2013 the Group announced the sale of the business to Blagosostoyanie for a consideration of €35 million. The transaction is expected to complete in the first half of 2013. This business is included in the consolidated statement of financial position at its closing MCEV.
During 2010, the Group's Taiwan joint venture, First-Aviva Life Insurance Co., Ltd., was classified as held for sale following the decision of management to seek to dispose of the business. A sale of this business was not completed in 2012 and management have reviewed its classification as held for sale and determined that the classification remains appropriate. The disposal is expected to be completed within 12 months of the balance sheet date. As the expected sale proceeds are not known at 31 December 2012, this business is included in the consolidated statement of financial position at its closing MCEV.
The sale of our Romania pensions business is still subject to regulatory approval and is expected to complete in the next 12 months, so it has been classified as held for sale. This business is included in the consolidated statement of financial position at its closing MCEV.
Page 35
E18 - Principal assumptions continued
(e) Other assumptions
Valuation of debt
Borrowings in the MCEV consolidated statement of financial position are valued on an IFRS basis, consistent with the primary financial statements. At 31 December 2012 the market value of the Group's external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares including General Accident plc preference shares of £250 million (classified as non-controlling interests) and direct capital instrument was £7,260 million (31 December 2011: £5,782 million).
|
2012 £m |
2011 £m |
Borrowings per summarised consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis |
8,194 |
8,450 |
Add: Amount included in held for sale |
145 |
- |
Less: Securitised mortgage funding |
(1,332) |
(1,306) |
Borrowings excluding non-recourse funding - MCEV basis |
7,007 |
7,144 |
Less: Operational financing by businesses |
(1,868) |
(1,889) |
External debt and subordinated debt - MCEV basis |
5,139 |
5,255 |
Add: Preference shares (including General Accident plc), direct capital instrument and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
1,832 |
1,440 |
External debt, subordinated debt, preference shares, direct capital instrument and fixed rate tier 1 notes - MCEV basis |
6,971 |
6,695 |
Effect of marking these instruments to market |
289 |
(913) |
Market value of external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares, direct capital instrument and fixed rate tier 1 notes |
7,260 |
5,782 |
Exchange rates
The Group's principal overseas operations during the year were located within the Eurozone, the United States and Poland. The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated into sterling at the average rates for the year and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the year end rates as follows:
|
2012 |
2011 |
Eurozone |
|
|
- Average rate (€1 equals) |
£0.81 |
£0.87 |
- Period end rate (€1 equals) |
£0.81 |
£0.84 |
United States |
|
|
- Average rate ($US1 equals) |
£0.63 |
£0.63 |
- Period end rate ($US1 equals) |
£0.62 |
£0.65 |
Poland |
|
|
- Average rate (zł1 equals) |
£0.19 |
£0.21 |
- Period end rate (zł1 equals) |
£0.20 |
£0.19 |
Page 36
E19 - Sensitivity analysis
(a) Economic assumptions
The following tables show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to:
n 10 basis point increase in the liquidity premium adjustment, where applicable;
n one percentage point increase and decrease in the risk-free rate with a floor of 0%, including all consequential changes (including assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);
n 10% increase and decrease in market values of equity and property assets;
n 25% multiplicative increase in equity, property and swaption volatilities;
n 50 basis point increase and decrease in credit spreads with no change to liquidity premium; and
n decrease in the level of required capital to 100% EU minimum (or equivalent).
In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions. For example, future bonus rates are automatically adjusted to reflect sensitivity changes to future investment returns. Some of the sensitivity scenarios may have consequential effects on valuation bases, where the basis for certain blocks of business is actively updated to reflect current economic circumstances. Consequential valuation impacts on the sensitivities are allowed for where an active valuation basis is used. Where businesses have a target asset mix, the portfolio is re-balanced after a significant market movement otherwise no re-balancing is assumed.
For new business, the sensitivities reflect the impact of a change immediately after inception of the policy.
In general, the magnitude of the sensitivities will reflect the size of the embedded values, though this will vary as the sensitivities have different impacts on the different components of the embedded value. In addition, other factors can have a material impact, such as the nature of the options and guarantees, as well as the types of investments held.
The credit spread sensitivities assume that the change relates to credit risk and not liquidity risk; in practice, credit spread movements may be partially offset due to changes in liquidity risk. Own sovereign debt is excluded from credit spread sensitivities.
Sensitivities will also vary according to the current economic assumptions, mainly due to the impact of changes to both the intrinsic cost and time value of options and guarantees. Options and guarantees are the main reason for the asymmetry of the sensitivities where the guarantee impacts to different extents under the different scenarios.
No sensitivities have been included for held for sale operations, reflecting that these operations are stated at expected fair value less cost to sell. Consequently, the United States, as a discontinued operation, has been excluded from the tables.
Page 37
E19 - Sensitivity analysis continued
Life and related business embedded value
|
|
|
Interest rates |
|
2012 Embedded value (net of non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E14 £m |
10bps increase in adjustment to risk-free rates £m |
1% increase £m |
1% decrease £m |
Swaption implied volatilities 25% increase £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
7,321 |
225 |
(205) |
245 |
(5) |
France |
3,170 |
5 |
95 |
(175) |
(130) |
Italy, Spain and Other |
979 |
10 |
20 |
(55) |
- |
Developed markets |
11,470 |
240 |
(90) |
15 |
(135) |
Higher growth markets |
2,413 |
- |
60 |
(125) |
- |
Total - excluding United States |
13,883 |
240 |
(30) |
(110) |
(135) |
|
|
Equity/Property |
|
|
|
|
|
Market Values |
|
Credit Spread |
|
2012 Embedded value (net of non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E14 £m |
10% increase £m |
10% decrease £m |
Volatility 25% increase £m |
50bps increase £m |
50bps decrease £m |
EU minimum capital or equivalent £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
7,321 |
240 |
(270) |
(180) |
(1,060) |
1,150 |
5 |
France |
3,170 |
200 |
(205) |
(140) |
(70) |
75 |
15 |
Italy, Spain and Other |
979 |
20 |
(20) |
(5) |
(40) |
40 |
10 |
Developed markets |
11,470 |
460 |
(495) |
(325) |
(1,170) |
1,265 |
30 |
Higher growth markets |
2,413 |
20 |
(30) |
- |
(20) |
20 |
10 |
Total - excluding United States |
13,883 |
480 |
(525) |
(325) |
(1,190) |
1,285 |
40 |
New business
|
|
|
Interest rates |
|
2012 Value of new business (net of tax and non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E2 £m |
10bps increase in adjustment to risk-free rates £m |
1% increase £m |
1% decrease £m |
Swaption implied volatilities 25% increase £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
313 |
33 |
(17) |
24 |
- |
France |
67 |
- |
6 |
(13) |
(5) |
Italy, Spain and Other |
23 |
- |
- |
(2) |
- |
Developed markets |
403 |
33 |
(11) |
9 |
(5) |
Higher growth markets |
102 |
- |
17 |
(11) |
(1) |
Total - continuing operations |
505 |
33 |
6 |
(2) |
(6) |
|
|
Equity/Property |
|
|
|
|
|
Market Values |
|
Credit Spread |
|
2012 Value of new business (net of tax and non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E2 £m |
10% increase £m |
10% decrease £m |
Volatility 25% increase £m |
50bps increase £m |
50bps decrease £m |
EU minimum capital or equivalent £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
313 |
- |
- |
- |
(106) |
113 |
- |
France |
67 |
13 |
(13) |
(2) |
(2) |
1 |
1 |
Italy, Spain and Other |
23 |
- |
- |
- |
(2) |
2 |
- |
Developed markets |
403 |
13 |
(13) |
(2) |
(110) |
116 |
1 |
Higher growth markets |
102 |
4 |
4 |
- |
- |
- |
2 |
Total - continuing operations |
505 |
17 |
(9) |
(2) |
(110) |
116 |
3 |
Page 38
E19 - Sensitivity analysis continued
(b) Non-economic assumptions
The following tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to the following changes in non-economic assumptions:
n 10% decrease in maintenance expenses (a 10% sensitivity on a base expense assumption of £10 pa would represent an expense assumption of £9 pa). Where there is a "look through" into service company expenses the fee charged by the service company is unchanged while the underlying expense decreases;
n 10% decrease in lapse rates (a 10% sensitivity on a base assumption of 5% pa would represent a lapse rate of 4.5% pa); and
n 5% decrease in both mortality and morbidity rates disclosed separately for life assurance and annuity business.
No future management actions are modelled in reaction to the changing non-economic assumptions. In each sensitivity calculation all other assumptions remain unchanged. No changes to valuation bases have been included.
No sensitivities have been included for held for sale operations, reflecting that these operations are stated at expected fair value less cost to sell. Consequently, the United States, as a discontinued operation, has been excluded from the tables.
Life and related business embedded value
2012 Embedded value (net of non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E14 £m |
10% decrease in maintenance expenses £m |
10% decrease in lapse rates £m |
5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - life assurance £m |
5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - annuity business £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
7,321 |
215 |
55 |
90 |
(380) |
France |
3,170 |
60 |
25 |
20 |
(20) |
Italy, Spain and Other |
979 |
15 |
25 |
15 |
(5) |
Developed markets |
11,470 |
290 |
105 |
125 |
(405) |
Higher growth markets |
2,413 |
60 |
80 |
40 |
- |
Total - excluding United States |
13,883 |
350 |
185 |
165 |
(405) |
New business
2012 Value of new business (net of tax and non-controlling interest) |
As reported in E2 £m |
10% decrease in maintenance expenses £m |
10% decrease in lapse rates £m |
5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - life assurance £m |
5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - annuity business £m |
United Kingdom & Ireland |
313 |
30 |
14 |
11 |
(20) |
France |
67 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
- |
Italy, Spain and Other |
23 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
- |
Developed markets |
403 |
37 |
21 |
15 |
(20) |
Higher growth markets |
102 |
13 |
14 |
6 |
- |
Total - continuing operations |
505 |
50 |
35 |
21 |
(20) |
Page 39
Statement of directors' responsibilities in respect of the Market Consistent Embedded
Value (MCEV) basis
When compliance with the European Insurance CFO Forum Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles (MCEV Principles), published in October 2009, is stated, those principles require the directors to prepare supplementary information in accordance with the methodology contained in the MCEV Principles and to disclose and explain any non-compliance with the guidance included in the MCEV Principles.
In preparing this supplementary information, the directors have done so in accordance with these MCEV Principles with the exception of stating held for sale operations at their expected fair value, as represented by expected sale proceeds, less cost to sell and have also complied with the guidance as set out in the Basis of Preparation. Specifically, the directors have:
n determined assumptions on a realistic basis, having regard to past, current and expected future experience and to relevant external data, and then applied them consistently;
n made estimates that are reasonable and consistent; and,
n provided additional disclosures when compliance with the specific requirements of the MCEV Principles is insufficient to enable users to understand the impact of particular transactions, other events and conditions and the Group's financial position and financial performance.
On behalf of the Board
Patrick Regan
Chief financial officer
6 March 2013
Page 40
Independent auditors' report to the directors of Aviva plc on the consolidated MCEV financial statements
Introduction
We have audited the consolidated MCEV financial statements of Aviva plc for the year ended 31 December 2012 which comprise the Consolidated income statement - MCEV basis, Earnings per share - MCEV basis, the Consolidated statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis, the Consolidated statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis, the Consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis, the Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases, the Reconciliation of IFRS Total Equity to MCEV Net Worth, the Group MCEV analysis of earnings and the related notes E1 to E19 on pages 3 to 38 ("the consolidated MCEV financial statements"). The consolidated MCEV financial statements have been prepared by the directors of Aviva plc in accordance with the MCEV Principles issued in June 2008 by the CFO Forum as amended in October 2009 ('the CFO Forum Principles') and the Basis of Preparation set out on pages 8 to 11 and should be read in conjunction with the Aviva plc Annual Report and Accounts 2012.
Respective responsibilities of directors and auditors
The directors are responsible for preparing the consolidated MCEV financial statements in accordance with the MCEV basis set out in Note E1 - Basis of preparation. Our responsibility, as set out in our letter of engagement dated 22 March 2012, is to audit and express an opinion on the consolidated MCEV financial statements in accordance with applicable law and International Standards on Auditing (UK and Ireland). Those standards require us to comply with the Auditing Practices Board's Ethical Standards for Auditors.
This report, including the opinion, has been prepared for and only for the Company's directors as a body in accordance with our letter of engagement dated 22 March 2012 and for no other purpose. We do not, in giving this opinion, accept or assume responsibility for any other purpose or to any other person to whom this report is shown or into whose hands it may come save where expressly agreed by our prior consent in writing.
Scope of the audit of the consolidated MCEV financial statements
An audit involves obtaining evidence about the amounts and disclosures in the consolidated MCEV financial statements sufficient to give reasonable assurance that the consolidated MCEV financial statements are free from material misstatement, whether caused by fraud or error. This includes an assessment of: whether the basis of preparation is appropriate to the Group's circumstances and has been consistently applied and adequately disclosed; the reasonableness of significant accounting estimates made by directors; and the overall presentation of the consolidated MCEV financial statements. In addition, we read all the financial and non-financial information in the MCEV Full year 2012 Supplement to identify material inconsistencies with the audited consolidated MCEV financial statements. If we become aware of any apparent material misstatements or inconsistencies we consider the implications for our report.
Basis for Qualified Opinion on the consolidated MCEV financial statements
As explained in the Basis of preparation to the consolidated MCEV financial statements, the net assets of the held for sale operations have been stated at their expected fair value less costs to sell because the directors believe this to be a better assessment of the value to shareholders' from these operations. By stating the held for sale operations at a value in excess of their MCEV the consolidated MCEV financial statements do not comply with the CFO Forum Principles in this respect. If the consolidated MCEV financial statements had been prepared in accordance with the CFO Forum Principles the profit for the year would have been £489 million and the total equity as at 31 December 2012 would have been £14,960 million.
Qualified Opinion on the consolidated MCEV financial statements
In our opinion, except for the effects of the matter described in the Basis for Qualified Opinion paragraph, the consolidated MCEV financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2012 have been properly prepared, in all material respects, in accordance with the CFO Forum Principles and the Basis of preparation set out on pages 8 to 11.
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Chartered Accountants
London
6 March 2013
1 The maintenance and integrity of the Aviva plc website is the responsibility of the directors; the work carried out by the auditors does not involve consideration of these matters and, accordingly, the auditors accept no responsibility for any changes that may have occurred to the consolidated MCEV financial statements since they were initially presented on the website.
2 Legislation in the United Kingdom governing the preparation and dissemination of financial information may differ from legislation in other jurisdictions.
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Page 41
Other information
In this section
Glossary 42
Shareholder services 46