8
Managers’ Report
After an encouraging period of performance in 2024, the opening months of 2025 were characterised
by significant volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns and cautious investor
sentiment. Investors, therefore, gravitated towards defensive, value-oriented sectors, while high-growth
stocks struggled despite strong fundamentals in many cases. We are disappointed to report that the
outperformance we noted in the interim report was erased in the second half of the Company’s
financial year, so that we ended marginally behind the index for the twelve months to 30 April 2025.
At the heart of this were some of the actions and comments from President Trump in regard to tariffs.
This could be an essay in itself, but for the purposes of this Managers’ Report it’s enough to say that
it’s difficult to assess the long-term implications of his actions and intentions. Indeed, even if some of
his proposals are moderated or reversed, it’s hard to think that there won’t be damage caused to trading
relationships. In the short term it has certainly shaken the confidence of consumers and also businesses.
Delaying investment or purchasing decisions given the uncertainty at an individual level might appear
understandable, but if aggregated and prolonged, this could prove damaging to short-term economic
prospects.
Closer to home, the new Labour Government has been unable, so far at least, to shake off its initial
faltering steps and the frankly uninspiring narrative has been made no easier with events outside their
control in the form of increasing concerns about the health of the global economy. With the domestic
economy still unable to break out of its low growth trajectory with higher business taxes looming,
consumer confidence has remained low, with cost-of-living pressures curbing discretionary spending.
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement did emphasise fiscal restraint but also lowered the UK growth
forecast from 2% to 1%. It’s important to remember that many of our businesses are only marginally
impacted by this but a fair number are seeing a tougher demand backdrop despite their long-term
strengths and growth potential.
Indeed, when discussing performance, what was striking in the period was the range of performance of
stocks within our concentrated portfolio of 37 companies (36 listed and 1 private). Normally, when
performance is close to the benchmark, one would reasonably imagine that most stocks would be
grouped in a tightish band around the index and there’d be a few outliers (good and bad) beyond that.
This wasn’t the case in this period. Instead, we saw a picture of extremes: for example the shares of the
six largest holdings in the portfolio at the year end: Games Workshop, Autotrader, Volution Group,
Experian, Wise and AJ Bell, all performed very well reflecting for the most part good underlying
operational performance in each of these very different businesses. There were a fair few others that
are smaller positions which also saw similar positive share price performance such as Just Group,
Moonpig and Rightmove. In contrast, Howden Joinery was the only one of our top ten holdings that
underperformed. However, there were also a notable number of other holdings in the portfolio that
performed extremely poorly. It’s here that we get to the heart of the matter as it helps explain the more
difficult performance of the second half because most of these stocks were economically sensitive
businesses such as 4imprint, Inchcape, Ashtead, Renishaw, Bodycote and Page Group. There were also
some company specific problems that hurt Diageo, Bunzl and Kainos.
The key debate for a long-term investor is whether a share price setback is indicative of something
going fundamentally wrong with the business or whether it is a temporary or cyclical issue. In all of the
above cases, we’ve carefully thought about this and for the most part other than some modest additions
and trims, we’ve largely stuck with the same positions. This is because we believe that these businesses
have the operational and balance sheet strength, alongside sensible management teams, to weather the
storms and come through in even better shape. For example, it will be no surprise to any reader that the
UK kitchen market has been a tough place in the last couple of years but while its short term financial
results are off their peak, Howdens Kitchens is outperforming the kitchen market and, crucially in our
view, still investing in its manufacturing, logistics, store refurbishment and new openings as well as
launching new product ranges. In our view, this is an example of a business having the conviction to do
the right things in tough times to position the business for an even brighter future when better times
return. In Howdens’ case, it is particularly laudable as, unlike some of our technology or ‘platform’