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Octopus AIM VCT plc Annual report 2025
Introduction
The year ended 28 February 2025 began on a positive note.
Economic uncertainty had eased, inflation approached target
levels, and UK GDP growth figures were revised upwards,
boosting optimism among economic commentators. Against
this backdrop, the IPO market showed early signs of recovery,
and secondary fundraisings had increased. Coupled with the
first interest rate cut in four years during the summer, these
developments restored much-needed confidence among UK
investors that a sustained market recovery was imminent.
Consequently, markets responded positively, with reduced
volatility and company share prices reacting favourably to good
news.
This positive trend continued through most of the first half of
the year but was interrupted ahead of the new UK Government’s
Autumn Budget, which introduced significant reforms to
Business Property Relief (BPR) affecting tax planning. The
changes (notably the reduction of relief from 100% to 50%
for shares listed on markets such as AIM), heightened investor
uncertainty and sparked widespread concerns about the long-
term implications for UK capital markets. In response, market
participants (including the London Stock Exchange, investors,
industry bodies and brokers), have actively engaged with the
government, focusing not only on regulatory adjustments but
also on anticipated pension reforms expected to transform
investment in UK equities and these conversations are ongoing.
A stock market rally in December, coupled with a series of
encouraging trading updates from companies in January, fostered
optimism that 2025 would bring a more stable and supportive
environment for UK equities. This initial momentum suggested
a potential turnaround after a period of volatility, raising hopes
among investors for sustained growth and improved market
sentiment. However, the arrival of the new US administration
and lingering uncertainty over the implementation of its policies
have tempered global investor confidence. The administration’s
aggressive tariff regime introduces complex challenges, as the
indirect consequences, such as disruptions to global supply
chains and diminished business confidence. These are difficult to
quantify but could materially affect global GDP growth, inflation
trajectories, and interest rate policies.
Market commentators widely anticipate that these tariffs will act
as a drag on global economic expansion, adding to a backdrop
already marked by geopolitical tensions and uneven economic
recovery across regions. In recent years, global investment has
become increasingly concentrated in the US, driven by strong
corporate earnings and technological innovation. Yet, ongoing
political uncertainty and heightened market volatility may
prompt investors to reassess US market valuations, particularly
within the technology sector, which has historically been a major
driver of returns. Such a reassessment could shift investor focus
toward alternative global markets, enhancing the appeal of the
UK as a destination for both domestic and international asset
allocators. It is hoped that this potential reallocation of capital
flows could stimulate increased investment into UK equities,
supported by relatively attractive valuations and a diverse market
landscape.
Encouragingly, the UK economy is projected to grow in 2025,
albeit at a slower pace than initially forecast. While growth
forecasts have recently been revised downward to around 1%
this year, macroeconomic indicators are largely positive, with
inflation only edging up slightly in recent months, and remaining
moderate compared to previous years. Meanwhile, interest rates
are anticipated to continue to decline, albeit at a lower than
previously anticipated pace, over the course of this year and into
2026, following the first rate cut earlier in 2025 as inflationary
pressures ease. This monetary easing is cautiously restoring
confidence among smaller companies, which have been trading
well below their long-term average valuations. The sustained
corporate activity within this segment of the market highlights
the substantial latent value in UK small businesses, suggesting
considerable upside potential as market conditions improve.
Overall, while challenges remain, including cost pressures caused
by global uncertainties, the combination of modest UK economic
growth, easing inflation, and falling interest rates is developing
a more supportive environment for UK equities, particularly for
smaller companies.
The Alternative Investment Market (AIM)
In the year to February 2025 the FTSE AIM Index fell by 2.6%. This
compared to a rise in the FTSE SmallCap (excluding investment
companies) of 10.7% and a rise in the FTSE All-Share Index of
18.4%, all on a total return basis. Although VCTs face additional
investment restrictions, the AIM Index remains the most
appropriate broad equity market benchmark for comparison,
given the nature of its underlying holdings. The FTSE SmallCap
and FTSE All-Share indices provide useful broader market context.
Last year, the larger indices outperformed, supported by their
significant exposure to major banks, aerospace and defence and
pharmaceuticals. This reflected a continued investor shift away
from growth and momentum stocks toward value opportunities
in more traditional sectors. Additionally, changes to Business
Property Relief (BPR) rules announced in the Autumn Budget
proved destabilising. Historically, AIM BPR funds have been a
key source of support for AIM’s largest companies, but the new
regulations have led to a withdrawal of investment from these
funds, negatively impacting the market’s overall performance
relative to its peers.
Consequently, the pace of IPOs on AIM remained subdued, with
only 10 IPOs during the period compared to 17 in the previous
financial year. While the number of exits remained broadly in
line with historical levels, there has been an increasing trend
of companies migrating to the main market or signalling
their intention to do so. Examples of this include Gamma
Communications plc and Brooks Macdonald Group plc, both of
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