
GOING CONCERN AND VIABILITY STATEMENT
Going concern and
viability statement
At the time of approving the financial
statements, the Board of Directors is
required to formally assess that the
business has adequate resources to
continue in operational existence and as
such can continue to adopt the ‘going
concern’ basis of accounting. The Board
is also required to state that it ‘has a
reasonable expectation that the Group
will continue in operation and meet its
longer-term liabilities as they fall due’
(the ‘Viability Statement’). To support
this statement, the Board has considered
the Group’s current financial position,
its strategy, the market outlook and its
principal risks. As the Group runs a five-
year planning process, the Board has
reviewed viability over a five-year period.
The base case for this review is the five-
year plan presented to and approved by
the Directors in May 2023.
The Group is operationally and
financially strong and has a long track
record of consistently generating profits
and cash, which is expected to continue
both in the short and long term. In the
financial years ending June 2020 and
June 2021, despite the impact of the
pandemic and the enforced closure of
its stores for significant periods, the
business continued to generate high
levels of cash before distributions.
Modelling potential
downside scenarios
In their consideration of going concern
and the future viability of the Group, the
Directors have reviewed future profit
forecasts and cash projections, which
reflect their experience in managing
the business. Both scenarios modelled
assume that variable costs would reduce
as sales reduce.
The ‘market downturn’ scenario assumes
a change in consumer spending away
from homewares, due to inflationary
pressures, with FY24 showing no sales
growth on FY23 and 8% lower growth
in FY25 than in the base case scenario.
In addition, a lower margin than base
case is assumed throughout the five-year
period. This ‘market downturn’ scenario
does not include any mitigating cost
reduction actions, which would be
taken if such a downturn occurred, and
assumes the continuation of dividend
payments in line with our current
dividend policy. In this ‘market downturn’
scenario, the Group would not breach
any of its financial covenants.
The ‘deeper market downturn’ scenario
assumes a 5% sales decline in FY24
compared to FY23 and 8% lower growth
in FY25 than in the base case. A more
severe margin erosion is assumed in
this scenario compared to the ‘market
downturn’ scenario and margin erosion
continues throughout the five-year
period. Similar to the ‘market downturn’
scenario, we have assumed no cost
mitigation and the continuation of
dividend payments in line with our
current dividend policy. As with the
‘market downturn’ scenario, the Group
would not breach any of its financial
covenants.
The Directors continue to assess the
risks that climate change poses to the
business via modelling and disclosures
in line with the Task Force on Climate-
related Financial Disclosures. The Group
will actively manage and mitigate these
risks as required within the existing
enterprise risk management processes
(as outlined on page 45). Climate change
is not expected to have a significant
impact on the Group’s going concern
assessment or on the viability of the
Group over the next five years.
Reverse stress testing
To provide additional assurance around
the Group’s viability, two reverse stress
tests have been modelled, similar to
the reverse stress testing carried out
at the end of FY22. In both of these
reverse stress tests we have assumed
that variable costs would reduce in
line with sales, that we would be able
to save £20m per annum of fixed costs
and that we would reduce the level of
capital investment to £10m per annum
and suspend the payment of dividends.
In the first reverse stress test, we have
modelled the sales decline required to
breach either of the current covenants
in the Revolving Credit Facility (RCF). A
sales reduction of 23% in FY24 and 28%
in FY25 from the base case would be
required for covenants to be breached
by the end of FY25. In the second reverse
stress test scenario, we have modelled
the level of sales reduction required
to breach the RCF limit of £250m. This
would require a reduction in sales of
47% in both FY24 and FY25 from the
base case to effectively run out of
funding by the end of FY25, assuming
reasonable mitigating actions have been
implemented.
Financing
The Group’s banking agreements and
associated covenants are set out in the
CFO’s Review and include a £250m RCF
(maturing in September 2027 with a two-
year extension option, subject to lender
consent), an accordion option with a
maximum facility of £100m and a £10m
uncommitted overdraft.
The Group ended the financial year
with net debt of £31m. The financial
covenants are tested in line with our
December interim reporting and June
year-end reporting. These covenants
are met with significant headroom. In
both downside scenarios, the Group
continues to forecast compliance with all
financial covenants throughout the going
concern and viability period.
Going concern and
viabilityconclusion
In both downside scenarios Dunelm has
sufficient liquidity to continue trading,
including maintaining the payment of
dividends in line with its dividend policy
and comfortably meeting its financial
covenants. The reverse stress modelling
has demonstrated that a sales reduction
of 23% in FY24 and 28% in FY25 from
the base case is required to breach
covenants by the end of FY25 and a 47%
sales reduction is required to breach the
RCF limit by the end of FY25, assuming
reasonable mitigating actions have been
implemented. Even in such an event,
management would follow a similar course
of action to that initially undertaken during
the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Such
actions could include further reductions
in discretionary spend (e.g. marketing and
travel) and capital investment in new stores
and refits, and reducing headcount.
The Board believes that the Group is well
placed to manage its financing and other
significant risks satisfactorily and that the
Group will be able to operate within the
level of its facilities and meet its liabilities
as they fall due, for at least the next five
years. For this reason, the Board also
considers it appropriate for the Group
to adopt the going concern basis in
preparing its financial statements.
Strategic Report
This report was reviewed and signed by
order of the Board on 20 September 2023.
Nick Wilkinson
Chief Executive Officer
20 September 2023
STRATEGIC REPORT
Dunelm Group plc Annual Report and Accounts 2023 55