
Æ Corporation tax. The actual corporation
tax paid will impact on the cash available
to Shareholders.
Æ Inflation. With most of the revenues
being linked to RPI, any increase in
inflation projections increases the overall
profitability, and therefore valuation of the
assets. This is countered, to some degree,
by debt service for the two debt facilities
also being indexed to inflation, with an
increase in inflation resulting in higher
interest charges.
It is particularly challenging to forecast the
future direction of inflation. Central Banks
around the world have raised interest
rates in a bid to quell inflation. Financial
markets are pricing inflation well in excess
of 3% even in the medium to long-term. A
more prudent long run forecast of 3% has
been used in the calculation of the NAV.
Once the free cash projected to be generated
by the assets is calculated, the value of
these cash flows has to be estimated. The
Investment Adviser notes that these cash
flows are supported by a very high proportion
of government backed and index linked
revenues. In the current financial market,
such cash flows are dependable and therefore
valuable. With greater certainty of output
at the three large ground mounted solar
assets that comprise 40% of the installed
capacity there is greater visibility on the
returns on these assets. The discount rates
used reflect the Investment Adviser’s
experience in the market and evidence of
third-party transactions, as well as based on
feedback from other independent advisers.
The discount rates used to value the future
cash flows have been increased by 1.5%
for the solar asset portfolio since the end
of the financial year (2021: 5.5% to 5.75%)
to reflect the increase in the risk-free rate
as a result of the Bank of England raising
interest rates. An increase of equal magnitude
has been applied to the wind assets.
The value of the investments in bio-bean
and Rezatec has been determined using
International Private Equity Valuation
Guidelines. Due to the highly dilutive emergency
funding round and the company’s diminished
future prospects, Rezatec’s valuation was
marked down to less than 53% of investment
cost to reflect its continued, despite nearing
the end of the pandemic, to variability in
feedstock supply, as well as weather patterns.
The business has improved in many respects
including better margins, increased demand
for its core product, good traction in a new
product, but success is highly dependent on
sustained and growing deliveries of feedstock
at low prices. Bio bean’s valuation has also
been marked down to reflect its continued,
despite the end of the pandemic, variability
in feedstock supply, as well as weather
patterns. The business has improved in
many respects including better margins,
increased demand for its core product, good
traction in a new product, but success is
highly dependent on sustained and growing
deliveries of feedstock at low prices.
Overall, a £1.9mn increase in the value
of the renewable generation assets was
offset by a £1.4mn reduction in the value
of the venture capital investments.
Outlook
The Investment Adviser’s continued focus is
to ensure that the assets operate at or above
budget whilst it supports the Directors’ efforts
to maximise exit value for Shareholders.
Addressing the contractual status of the grid
connection arrangement at South Marston and
de-risking the low probability (but high potential
impact) loss of this grid connection remains a
key priority. In recent months, new avenues in
the form of an offer from the local Distribution
Network Operator for South Marston to
connect to the grid at dedicated Point of
Connection outside the former Honda site, and
contingent liability insurance have emerged.
The discussions between the parties involved,
on new arrangements once the new owner
of the site is in place, have also progressed.
The repairs of the underperforming assets
that were completed in the last financial year
appear, from this year’s generation data,
to have been successful, as have warranty
claims for the Beechgrove ground mounted
solar asset and these have provided greater
visibility and reliability of revenues. A new
O&M contractor is about to be formally
engaged for four of the eight ground-mounted
solar assets and this is expected to improve
reliability for those assets. The generation
outlook for the portfolio has improved since
the beginning of the last financial year.
There is an observable impact of age on
many of the assets that have not yet been
repowered in the portfolio. The Investment
Adviser remains vigilant for the purpose of
spotting any signs of degradation early so that
the impact on availability can be managed
and reduced. Further maintenance provisions
have been incorporated into the financial
model to cover the risk of higher maintenance
expenditure on roof mounted assets.
The higher inflation outlook, whilst of concern
from the point of view of the wider UK and
global economies, is positive for the owners
of subsidised UK renewable assets. Although
most costs also rise in line with inflation,
as does the cost of servicing the two debt
facilities, the net benefit of increased inflation
is strongly positive since it increases the
inflation linked revenues more than it increases
the costs. The portfolio has been enjoying the
benefit of higher inflation from 1 April 2022
when subsidy levels rose, with even higher
inflation figures raising tariffs from 1 April 2023.
All but one of the eight ground mounted solar
assets came out of their fixed price PPAs during
the financial year, which coincided with the
spike in power prices following the Russian
Federation's invasion of Ukraine. The Investment
Adviser entered into new fixed price PPAs for one
or two year durations for each of these assets.
The combined effect of inflation and power
prices locked in at high levels should translate
into significantly improved revenue and
cashflow over the next two years. Total
revenues per kWh generated by the solar
assets are expected to rise to 60.9p in the new
financial year and 64.2p in the financial year
ending 30 September 2024, from 39.4p in the
last financial year ending 30 September 2022.
Should generation stay at the same levels as in
the financial year, total revenues will increase
in the same proportion, with a corresponding
impact on cashflow after debt service.
Beyond the one to two year term for the fixed
power prices, it becomes very challenging
to predict the future course of inflation and
power prices, with a wide range of forecasts
for medium to long-term inflation. There
are plausible future scenarios that could
bring the levels of inflation as well as power
prices down substantially from current levels,
which are already down from the highest
levels experienced in recent months.
The VCT is very fortunate that the EGL
introduced by the UK Government with
effect from 1 January 2023 does not
apply to the VCT, as the total generation
of its portfolio falls below the de minimis
threshold of 50GWh per year.
However, most likely buyers of the VCT’s assets
already have renewable energy portfolios
and would not therefore be able to avoid
paying the EGL as a result of the de minimis.
Accordingly, a fair value has been determined
with the assets valued for the purposes of
the NAV as if the EGL would need to be paid.
The venture capital investments that
accounted for close to 7p of the NAV have
been marked down by slightly under 6p,
which is a disappointing outcome. Whilst
fortunes can turn around, the Investment
Adviser is not at this time expecting to
recover the original amounts invested.
Investment Adviser’s Report (continued)
12
Gresham House Renewable Energy VCT2 plc