
09
Strategic report Governance Financial statements
Job No: 50043 Proof Event: 16 Black Line Level: 8 Park Communications Ltd Alpine Way
London E6 6LA
Customer: Gabelli Project Title: Gabelli Merger Plus Annual Report 2023 T: 0207 055 6500 F: 020 7055 6600
us with an opportunity, as it is often
indiscriminate. Mispriced risk allows us to
add to our highest conviction positions
at lower prices—the benefits of which
will be apparent as these transactions
progress towards closing. Regarding
regulatory risk, the aggressive policy
reform rhetoric we have written about
in the past has translated in some cases
into aggressive action. Some deals were
able to close in spite of regulatory action
(Change Healthcare) and some were able
to find alternative, less problematic suitors
(Aerojet Rocketdyne). We feel as though
this regulatory regime has created unique
investment opportunities and an attractive
risk/reward. Lastly, the merger arbitrage
strategy is a beneficiary of rising rates, as
the risk free rate is one of the components
of a deal spread. As rates rise, nominal
spreads should widen, all things being
equal. With the 3 month U.S. Treasury bill
yielding well over 5%, this should continue
to create a more compelling spread
environment going forward. We continue
to find attractive investment opportunities
in newly announced and pipeline deals.
We remain focused on investing in highly
strategic, well-financed deals with an
added focus on near-term catalysts,
and are upbeat about our prospects to
generate absolute returns.
U.S. capital markets rebounded
significantly in the first half of 2023
despite headwinds. The S&P 500 finished
the first half up 16.8% against the backdrop
of a debt ceiling drama, a U.S. banking
crisis, geopolitical uncertainty, and a Fed
that has so far been unwavering in its
commitment to fight inflation.
M&A volumes did not prove as resilient,
as economic uncertainty and combative
regulators contributed to a 37% year-
over-year decline in the first half. Despite
this sharp decrease in dollar volumes, the
number of transactions was only down
9% compared to last year. Deals are still
getting done—albeit, smaller in size. The
second quarter did begin to show some
green shoots, as volumes totaled $750
billion, a 33% sequential improvement.
We expect this momentum to continue
as the year progresses.
The aggressive policy stance of regulators
has persisted in 2023, but companies are
adapting and showing a willingness to
fight back when case law supports their
cause. Regulators’ efforts to bring cases
with more novel theories of harm thus far
have not translated into much success in
court. While this has created volatility in
certain arbitrage spreads, it has provided
unique investment opportunities with an
attractive risk/reward.
A company’s PMV is not constant, and
changes as a function of many variables.
Our analysis emphasizes balance
sheets, cash flows, and the long term
defendable position of a corporation.
We achieve returns through investing
in businesses utilising our proprietary
Private Market Value (“PMV”) with a
Catalyst™ methodology. We PMV is the
value that we believe an informed buyer
would be willing to pay to acquire an
entire company in a private transaction.
Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by
a rigorous assessment of fundamentals
from publicly available information.
Further, PMV’s are enhanced through
the analysis of announced corporate
mergers and acquisition activity.
Mergers offer tangible insights into the
long term capital allocation decisions
of global corporations. We highlight
several investments across sectors which
have offered insights to the corporate
allocation process below.
Notable contributors to performance
include:
Defense Infrastructure
The strategic rational around US defense
spending as a long term investment
continues, notably in the race to develop
hypersonic weapons capabilities as seen
in Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc.
(AJRD-NYSE) agreement to be acquired
by L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX-
NYSE). Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings,
Inc. (AJRDNYSE), which designs and
manufactures specialised power and
propulsion systems for space and defense
applications, agreed to be acquired by
L3Harris Technologies for $58 cash per
share, or about $5 billion. In December
2020, Aerojet agreed to be acquired by
Lockheed Martin for $51 cash per share,
but that deal was terminated in February
2022 after the U.S. Fair Trade Commission
sued to block the transaction, claiming
that Lockheed would be able to raise
the prices the U.S. government pays
for rocket engines, and potentially
deliver a lower quality product Portfolio
Manager’s review continued Half-Yearly
Financial Report (Unaudited) for the six
months ended 31 December 2022 11 to
Lockheed’s rival defense contractors
that utilise Aerojet’s propulsion systems.
We believe the acquisition by L3Harris
provides fewer antitrust risks than the
Lockheed transaction did. L3Harris
primarily produces electronics and
communications systems, so there is no
horizontal overlap with Aerojet’s business
and no benefit from bundling the two
companies’ products. An important
distinction from the Lockheed deal is
that there is also no vertical integration,
as Aerojet does not supply L3Harris with
any products used in L3’s programs, and
Aerojet will become a new business unit
for L3 as a merchant supplier of engines
to prime contractors. We believe shares
of Aerojet Rocketdyne were inexpensive
after the deal with Lockheed Martin was
called off and certain shareholders were
forced to sell their position. At the time,
shares traded at less than 10x EBITDA,
a significant discount to its historical
valuation, and Tony Bancroft, Gabelli’s
defense analyst, thought other buyers for
Aerojet would emerge and that shares
were worth more than $60 in a takeover.
We expect the L3Harris deal to close in
mid-2023.
Food Distribution
The attributes of consumer food
distribution benefits through scale
synergies and as such our investment in
Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI- NYSE)
entered a new stage as they agreed to be
acquired by The Kroger Co. (KR-NYSE).
Albertsons operates food and drug retail
stores in the U.S. under banners such as
Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Tom Thumb,
ACME and more. Under terms of the
agreement Albertsons’ shareholders will
receive $34.10 cash per share (inclusive of
a special dividend and potential spin-off),
valuing the transaction at approximately
$25 billion.
Biotech Pharma
Undervalued and fairly unique and well
positioned business in our portfolio
continued to attract suitors and as
such Dechra Pharmaceuticals plc (DPH
LN-London) agreed to be acquired
by EQT and Abu Dhabi Investment
Authority. Dechra is a global veterinary
pharmaceuticals and products business.
Under terms of the agreement, Dechra
shareholders will receive £38.75 cash
per share, valuing the transaction at
approximately £4.8 billion
Gaming and Entertainment
Fundamentals for the online gaming
industry continued to accelerate as
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI- NASDAQ)
agreed to be acquired by Microsoft Corp.
(MSFT-NASDAQ). Activision Blizzard
develops and publishes interactive
entertainment content and services.
Under the terms of the agreement
Activision shareholders will receive
$95.00 cash per share, valuing the
transaction at approximately $74 billion.