
Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust plc Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 30 June 2023
Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust plc Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 30 June 2023
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Investment Manager’s Report (continued)
held back private investments in the last decade seem
to be behind us. Corporate debt is at its lowest in many
years and banks are enjoying one of the lowest bad-
loans ratios in the last decade (gross and net bank NPA
ratios stand at 3.9% and 1% respectively). This provides a
conducive environment for private sector capex to pick
up from here.
Government capex has also grown at a brisk pace
recently, reflecting policy commitment to building
infrastructure and facilitating private investment. The
FY24 budget signalled continuity on public capex (roads,
railways and housing), enhancing the ease of doing
business and boosting exports and manufacturing.
Given this is a pre-election year, public sector capex
growth is likely to remain robust. As estimated by various
global agencies, such as the IMF and the World Bank,
India is likely to emerge as the fastest growing major
economy over this decade.
The pandemic and geopolitical tensions over the last
few years have accelerated supply chain diversification
across various industries. India’s favourable
demographics, with 900 million people of working
age, makes it an attractive destination for companies
to set up their production base. The production linked
incentives issued by the government since 2020, for
setting up new manufacturing units producing and
exporting from India, have started to show results. A
number of global giants are in the process of starting
production in India. Despite the strong growth in the
export of electronics, India’s global share in many other
sectors such as chemicals and engineering goods
is still small (approximately 2% to 4%). Even a 1% to 2%
incremental market share gain from China, could result
in high-teens growth rates for these sectors.
India’s well diversified corporate sector continues to
generate stable earnings growth. Earnings growth for
the Nifty is projected to grow by mid-teens over the near
term, marking the best phase of corporate profitability
since the period 2003 to 2007. Despite periodically
rising concerns over the impact of higher credit or
raw material costs on the broader market, we believe
several of our portfolio companies are market leaders
and have managed inflationary scenarios fairly well.
The underlying trend of market share consolidation in
favour of stronger, well-run businesses continues. The
unbranded (or unorganised) segment of the market has
found it challenging to deal with higher input costs and
frequent supply chain disruptions. Also, in the context
of potentially slowing global growth, it is worth re-
iterating that India’s earnings have generally been more
resilient than its emerging market peers during previous
downcycles.
In view of these positives, the broader Indian equity
market has seen a recovery rally since April 2023 and
valuations are back to 23x (FY24 P/E multiple), as
compared to the 10 year average of 19x for BSE Sensex.
Although the market seems expensive, in the last 10
years, bar a few instances during market corrections
between 2016 and 2020, India has consistently traded
at a premium relative to other emerging markets. We
never take a call on aggregate market valuations. What
we are looking for are attractively valued businesses on
a relative basis. Within the market, sectors or businesses
trade at different valuations based on their respective
risk-reward dynamics. It is the relative framework within
which we identify investment opportunities. If a well-
governed, scalable business is able to generate superior
returns on incremental capital, and if after factoring in a
certain projected growth we see material upside from
current stock price levels, then we will invest. From the
lens of our proprietary Opco-Finco framework, which
evaluates businesses’ economic cash flow over and
above the cost of capital, Ashoka India Equity Investment
Trust’s FY24 P/E multiple would be 36.2x as opposed
to 45.5x for the Sensex, highlighting the portfolio’s
reasonable valuations in our view.
India offers a diversified sector exposure relative to its
international peers, with a good mix of cyclical and
counter cyclical businesses. Our approach has always
been to maintain a balanced portfolio, to ensure that
our portfolio’s performance is driven by stock selection