
Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust plc Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 30 June 2024
8
Investment Manager’s Report (continued)
economic fundamentals, resilient corporate earnings as
well as promising growth prospects continue to garner
strong foreign direct investment (‘FDI’) as well as portfolio
flows. A moderating inflation trajectory and benign
current account deficit opens up room for RBI monetary
easing. Fiscal policy will likely remain in consolidation
mode, driven by a pickup in tax revenues and improved
rationalisation of government outlays even as capex
spending will likely remain robust. The ongoing inclusion
of Indian government bonds into the JP Morgan Bond
index will also be supportive of local debt markets.
The recently announced General Budget for FY25 signaled
the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation
while continuing to fuel growth by boosting infrastructure
investments. The gross fiscal deficit (‘GFD’) target was
lowered to 4.9% of GDP for FY25 (5.1% in the Interim
Budget) versus 5.6% in FY24. The Finance Minister also
announced schemes to support fresh employment and
skill development in manufacturing and other sectors,
as well as a new credit guarantee scheme for supporting
labour-intensive small and medium-sized enterprises.
As part of the Indian government’s Finance (No. 2) Act,
2024, which became effective in July 2024, the short-
term capital gains tax (“CGT”) rate increased from 15%
to 20%, and the long-term CGT rate increased from 10%
to 12.5% with no impact on returns/performance for the
year ended 30 June 2024. However, it is expected that
future returns/performance will be adversely affected to
the extent of the CGT tax increases. The government also
announced that it is working towards a comprehensive
review of the Direct Tax Code, aimed at simplifying and
consolidating the structure of direct taxes.
CPI inflation was broadly under control at 5.4% for the
period June 2023 to June 2024 versus 6.1% in the period
June 2022 to June 2023, driven by sharp moderation
in core inflation. However, food inflation was volatile
during this period. Nonetheless, RBI expects CPI inflation
to further moderate to 4.5% in FY25, as core inflation is
expected to remain benign. Commodity prices have
also been modest in recent months. The progress of the
monsoons has been normal and will aid in keeping food
inflation in check.
India’s external sector balance was under check with the
current account deficit (‘CAD’) to GDP (CAD/GDP) at 0.8%
in FY2024, with a marked improvement in the second half
of the fiscal year. Services trade surplus and remittances
provided considerable tailwinds to the external sector,
aiding in the current account surplus in 4QFY24. Overall,
external risks remain contained as India’s external
debt, at 19% of GDP, is amongst the lowest in the world,
while RBI’s forex reserves, at approximately USD690bn,
is amongst the highest. Further, an underappreciated
aspect is that the vulnerability of macro variables
such as CAD due to a higher oil import bill has reduced
materially over the years due to faster growth in services
exports.
India’s workforce is estimated to be nearly 600 million,
of which 45% is employed in agriculture. To boost
productivity, the government has prioritized investment-
led growth to shift jobs from agriculture to higher
value-addition in the manufacturing and services
sectors. A large number of supply-side measures have
also been initiated over the last decade such as (1)
labor reforms, (2) reduction in corporate tax rates, (3)
bankruptcy reforms, (4) strengthening financial and
corporate balance sheets, (5) incentives for domestic
manufacturing through Production Linked Incentive
(PLI) scheme, among others. As a result, India has
witnessed a steady increase in manufacturing gross
value added (‘GVA’), especially in new-age sectors
such as electronics. Continued government support
coupled with a favourable geopolitical scenario gives
India strong tailwinds to scale manufacturing in several
sunrise sectors. At the same time, India has also also
achieved a considerable degree of success in leveraging
its skilled workforce to increase its services exports.
India’s diverse corporate sectors and generally
improving ROE suggests it will remain one of the best
EM equity markets within which to capture sustained
outperformance. Also noteworthy has been the
corporate deleveraging and cleaning up of banks’
balance sheets with a marked decline in non-performing
loans. This in turn has kickstarted a recovery in private
sector capex further enhanced by the government’s