
Markets and our sectors
Equity markets reacted positively to declining inflation and the
cuts in policy interest rates in many OECD economies in the
second half of the financial year. Longer term bond yields fell
between April and September, helping interest rate sensitive
stocks. Elections and changing political agendas in the UK,
Franceand the US provided political uncertainty while
continuinggeopolitical tensions unsettled investor confidence.
This mixed backdrop had much less effect on EGL’s portfolio than
the strong earnings momentum and positive long-term updates of
the companies we invest in. Over the 12 months to 30 September,
the NAV increased by 25.9%, ahead of the S&P Global Infrastructure
Index (+18.0%) and the MSCI World Utilities Index (+23.7%). The MSCI
World Index increased by 21.1%, mostly achieved in the first half
of EGL’s financial year (all total returns insterling).
US utilities were the stand-out performers during the year
(+29.2%) and stock selection added further value. Utilities in
Continental Europe kept up with broad equity averages and UK
holdings were notably strong NAV contributors. Transportation
infrastructure and environmental services returns were positive
but more muted than in the energy sector. The reappearance of
US power demand growth, driven partly by datacentres but also
by economic activity, re-shoring and the switch from fossil fuels
inpower generation gives a pivotal role to the transmission &
distribution utilities that will hook that power up to final users as
well as to the generators. Consequently, in Europe as well as the
US, earnings results and guidance were strong, often nicely
aheadof market expectations, helping the appreciation of
shareswhich continue to trade on low valuations.
Performance summary
The second half of the year produced a NAV total return of 15.2%,
building on the first half’s 9.0% return. For the full year, performance
was broadly based, with all regions and sub-sectors contributing
positively but several large holdings and one new name were the
main drivers. The use of leverage, which averaged 11% for the
year, was beneficial given the positive returns, while sterling’s
persistent strength held returns back (approximately -8%).
One of our best decisions in the year was to add Vistra to the
portfolio last November. Vistra is a diversified US integrated utility
operating natural gas, coal, nuclear and solar generation capacity
plus one of the largest battery storage facilities in the world.
Compared to peers, it has low debt ratios and above average free
cash flows, and nearly half its generation capacity in Texas where
we see structurally higher power prices because baseload capacity
is being replaced by renewables. The holding was doubled in
February when Vistra’s purchase of Energy Harbour, owner of a
4000 MW nuclear generation fleet, received regulatory approval,
giving Vistra the second largest nuclear power fleet in the country.
This coincided with a sea-change in attitudes to nuclear energy.
Constellation, a pure nuclear owner/operator, has been a relatively
large holding in the portfolio since it was spun out from Exelon
early in 2022. Together, Constellation and Vistra represented
c.7%of the portfolio during the year, despite some profit taking,
and their shares increased by 116% and 212%, respectively.
Constellation and Vistra are direct beneficiaries of accelerating
demand from energy intensive businesses (including datacentres)
for constantly available decarbonised electricity and the US
Production Tax Credit which provides a floor price for nuclear
electricity and supports investing to extend the life of plants.
Datacentres are increasingly connecting directly to nuclear plants
and ready to pay a significant premium over wholesale power
prices to secure their need for baseload power. Constellation and
Vistra shares were also reacting well to strong earnings, cash flow
generation and balance sheets, significantly improving longer
term earnings outlooks and returns to shareholders via share
buybacks. Southern Company and Public Service Enterprise
Group, also nuclear plant owners, were notable contributors
toperformance too due to solid earnings reports.
After a disappointing stock performance in the previous year,
NextEra Energy’s shares rose 37% as quarterly earnings results
consistently exceeded market expectations. This reflected strong
customer growth, new additions to its renewables and storage
portfolio and cost controls. Regulated wires-focussed utilities
such as American Electric Power and Edison International also
performed well as bond yields came down, earnings came
through and customer demand growth materialised sooner than
expected. Edison International, for example, expects 35% higher
10-year load growth than just two years ago.
National Grid, SSE and Drax represented the majority of the
portfolio’s UK exposure. They are well exposed to the themes
oftransmission & distribution and electrification that we are
emphasising in the portfolio and they were strong performers
during the second half of the year. Share price volatility –
aroundNational Grid’s equity issuance, for example – provided
anopportunity to manage position sizes and add value. Enel
provided a consistently good performance contribution as it
continued to deliver strong earnings. Its asset disposal program
isahead of plan and at attractive valuation multiples; the shares
also benefited from the decline in Italian bond yields.
After a poor performance for RWE in the first half, its shares
recovered in the second but still underperformed a strong
cohort. Hong Kong listed Chinese stocks underperformed for
most of the year until a hefty stimulus package ignited an equity
market rally in China and Hong Kong in September. This meant
China Suntien Green Energy and China Water Affairs made
reasonable contributions to the NAV for the last 6 months and
the full financial year. Xinyi Energy made a much smaller share
price recovery and was the poorest performer during the year;
itis also the portfolio’s smallest holding. Stocks with French
exposure (Vinci, Veolia, Engie, Atlas Arteria) were weak toward
year-end given the prospect of a rise in the corporate tax rate
asthe government struggled to shore up its finances.
The Company Governance Financials Company Information
05Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust plc Annual Report and Accounts 2024
Investment Manager’s Report